Driven Brands Holdings: Dominating North America's Auto ServicesKey arguments in support of the idea.
A potential rise in U.S. car prices may positively impact the company’s sales.
DRVN is expanding its footprint in the essential automotive services market, simultaneously reducing its car wash segment with more cyclical sales.
Investment Thesis
Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) is the largest automotive services company in North America, operating an increasing network of approximately 5,200 franchise, independently owned businesses operated by the company across 49 U.S. states and 13 other countries. The company has a footprint in all major automotive service areas, catering to both retail and commercial customers. Its main business segments include car maintenance and repair, express car wash, bodywork and paint services.
U.S. car import tariffs, introduced in March, support the trend of an increasing average age of cars on U.S. roads and may lead to higher car prices. These factors may contribute positively to DRVN’s revenue growth. On April 3, a 25% tariff on cars imported to the U.S. will take effect, and by May 3, equivalent tariffs on automotive components will be implemented. These tariffs may disrupt automakers’ production processes due to a reconfiguration of production chains. Only half of the 16 million new cars sold annually in the U.S. are produced domestically, while other autos could be subject to these tariffs. Production disruptions may result in price increases for both new and used cars. Many consumers may delay purchasing new cars, opting instead to spend more on maintaining their current vehicles. The new factors support the general long-term trend to an increasing average age of cars on U.S. roads. In 2000, the average vehicle age in the U.S. was 8.9 years; it has now grown to 12.6 years and continues to rise annually. Despite this, the total number of vehicles on U.S. roads is also steadily increasing at an average annual rate of about 1% over the past two decades. Combined with the new tariffs, the overall growth of the automotive aftermarket is likely to boost DRVN’s revenue in the upcoming years.
Driven Brands continues successfully shifting its focus to essential automotive services. After 2023, the company began reducing its ownership of standalone car washes while expanding its Take 5 Oil Change locations. Take 5 Oil Change provides rapid oil change services within 10 minutes, allowing drivers to remain in their cars. In March, reports have indicated that Driven Brands plans to sell its Take 5 Car Wash chain. We suppose this deal will accelerate the expansion of the Take 5 Oil Change segment and enable the company to allocate some proceeds toward debt reduction, potentially decreasing debt service expenses by up to 20%.
The valuation of DRVN stock, compared to its peers, shows potential for growth. DRVN’s valuation corresponds to 14 projected earnings for 2025, aligning with the average valuation among U.S. car dealers. Nonetheless, DRVN’s potential for revenue growth in the coming years is anticipated to surpass that of its peers. In the last three quarters alone, the Take 5 segment has demonstrated a sequential revenue increase of 10%, accounting for about 60% of the company’s total sales.
We suppose that Driven Brands Holdings Inc. (DRVN) shares may exhibit positive momentum in the near term.
The target price for DRVN shares over a two-month horizon is $19.90, with a “Buy” rating. We suggest setting a stop-loss at $15.50.
North
ethereum ETH (MACD)The reason MACD is not so reliable even with blue chip analysis; as seen in the graph the rising movement in the MACD indicator leads the buyer to think the price is going up and at the same time using a measuring stick it had been 50 days since the last price increase, instead of going positive like the MACD and timeline would lead one to think, the price went down really hard. A bad sign for the 100 day moving average is to see the price fall hard like Ethereum did at the 50 day.
NOC Stock Rises As Northrop Grumman Rounds Out Defense Earnings.Defense stocks were mixed early Thursday as Northrop Grumman (NOC) announced quarterly results. General Dynamics (GD) reported above-forecast third-quarter results Wednesday. RTX stock spiked on Tuesday after a Q3 earnings beat.
Rapidly evolving circumstances in Israel and Palestine sparked greater interest in defense companies going into the earnings season.
Northrop Grumman specializes in advanced missiles, missile components, defense systems and sensor technology. The company's various manned aircraft include the A-10 Thunderbolt, B-2 Stealth Bomber, B-21 Raider, F-35 and the F/A-18 Super Hornet.
Northrop's third-quarter earnings rose about 5% to $6.18 per share on 9% revenue growth to $9.78 billion.
We expect Northrop earnings to fall for the first time in three quarters, sliding 1.4% to $5.81 per share. Revenue views targeted a 6.8% rise to $9.58 billion.
The company reported that defense system sales rose 6% to $1.42 billion and mission systems revenue increased 7% to $2.63 billion. Northrop's space systems division reported an 11% revenue increase to $3.5 billion. Aeronautics revenue rose 9% to $2.77 billion.
It lifted its full-year sales guidance to $39 billion, from the previous range of $38.4 billion to $38.8 billion. Northrop maintained its earnings forecast, expecting EPS between $22.45 and $22.85.
Analysts polled by FactSet see full-year earnings of $22.74 on $38.79 billion in revenue.
Northrop is well positioned thanks to its "high priority" long-term growth programs including the B-21 and Sentential Ground Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), an intercontinental ballistic missile system, UBS wrote in an Oct. 10 research note. The programs provide greater visibility and should drive overperformance. UBS initiated coverage of NOC stock with a buy rating and $555 price target.
NOC stock gained 0.6% early Thursday, adding to Wednesday's 1% gain. Shares slid below their 10-day moving average early in the week. NOC stock is trading around mid-January levels and down 11.3% this year.
We can see the Trend line in sync with the Relative Strength Index indicating Bullish Trend on Northrop.
Is it time for sanction? Sanction against United States?The project North Stream 2 is one of the biggest projects in Europe. The project that is a few steps to complete is stopped currently. Germany and Russia plan to restart the project with put of the pipeline in the last kilometers in the Baltic Sea.
United States already introduction of sanctions against companies build the pipeline. The sanctions extended to the insurance and banks companies.
Europe is on the way now. Do they have the courage to introduce sanction against the United States?
If they do that step we can see a new way of war between the allies that will reflect over the forex trading and mainly EURUSD.
In a first view the dollar may lose ground but later the investors prefer the dollar as a major security investment. The dollar may drop to 1.1450 and later on may follow recovery to 1.09-1.10. But as overall we expects the both unions United States and European Union are going to lose and other countries and currencies may win like Swiss Franc and British Pound.
Nevertheless all sanctions and events North Stream 2 will be built. It is possible new delay but the pipeline will start function and United States CNG will not replace the Russian pipeline gas.
BTC – still above 2 important support lines. North is coming.Hi Traders!
This is an update on the current situation on BTC.
Everything is perfectly normal.
The price touched the support at $8200 - $8300 .
We are still above 2 important trend lines .
This looks like a correction. Nothing else.
WBM BUY/SELL Indicator says us the price is in the oversold zone .
This might be the perfect moment to re-buy .
North is the only direction.
Take care.
Have a good weekend.
Don’t panic.
Just observe how your assets are growing.
Thank you for reading.
Hit a like to support.
Massive Hugs!
GBPUSD: Sterling could rule - get into this!Pound/Sterling may hold some surprises. I have spotted a major curve suggesting probability for the upside. Just don't expect it go go up in a nice smooth way. Brexit is likely to hold some favourable surprises for GBP/ pairs in the longer term. Into April, expect high volatility and trouble.
GBPUSD - of tears for some, joy for othersThis is a classic example of who trend indicators can be used to exploit the markets. Many were simply watching structure levels largely - hoping for GBP to move south. The charts were flashing 'go north' on daily and 4H time frames. Then emerged the opportunities on 30 min to 1H time frames as it pumped north. This is not with the benefit of hindsight? Why? Because the market had all the information right there. The lesson in this for some traders who lost would have been about pitfalls of simply following crowd sentiment.
BITCOIN: The big issue - South or North?There is an almighty squeeze in momentum in the last month after price has contracted into a powerful zone of support.
So - the big issue is South or North? There is tension in the air. Everybody know that something is about to happen! When is the big question for everybody. Well, we cannot predict the future.
For me it is about a strategy to catch BTC on the way up or take controlled acceptable losses.
USDJPY Structure tradeTrying out some basic pivot structure on USDJPY.
Of course I'd like bullish momentum to continue since being long since 108, but this last high wick test of 111 seems to be a rejection.
we shall see how this plays out soon.
** North Korea is back to threating people again also so investors may pull out of USD and run to YEN for safety
My home currency!Hey traders
Its been a volatile past few days with Trump and North Korea talking trash with each other sending global exchanges into the red, and breaking the DOW's 9 day streak!
But aside from that we can still find setups in the currency markets, NZD has been in a strong uptrend since late 2015, so even with a slight drop at the start of this month, price has hit a major structure level dating back to sept 2016 and feb 2017. To add to this we've had a major rally to the upside this morning with the RBNZ keeping interest rates at 1.75% as expected. This rally has bounced off previous structure, i would not enter trade yet as I would like to see a confirmation that the trend has continued its upward movement with a new higher high and higher low.
Thanks
Plan your trade, trade your plan.
eur usd neutral 10-03-2017 (ap)hello dear traders and welcome to growing Forex
A nice spike yesterday for EURUSD moved the price out of bearish pressure & its heading north. Moreover I'm not neutral its just that i,v started betting on the euro from yesterday's speech of Mr.Mario Draghi. He said that there no change in our policy & are trying to increase the asset purchasing to 74 billions approx. Due to this the investors changed their mind & started investing in Euro. As of now the price is headed north around 1.0640 - 1.0660 levels. Most probably these are the reversal zone for a short term correction.
Thing to follow today are NFP that can change the outcome.
Good-luck,
Regards,
Growing Forex.
EURUSD: Up or Down?EURUSD broke the support at 1.1290 but recovered strongly and now being traded within the 1.13-1.13300 trange. My bias on this pair remains bullish but I don’t think the EUR could do that and head up back to 1.14+ in the medium-term. Therefore I set selling order at 1.1350+ with stop loss at 1.139+. When I was writing this post the EURUSD hit the 1.133 resistance and dropped down to the lower bound. However I don’t expect much moves today as today’s Monday with no important news. Stay tuned for more updates!
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On A Way To New Daily Highs EURCHFYesterday’s buy signal on EURCHF is running good at the moment. The pair is in quite upside trend now. I first gave it a try last week when it broke the bullish flag upper wedge. D1 charts 1.1038-1.1047 is strong support so we’ve bought again at the retest. I am working only with price action here, no other supporting tools. Franc is losing ground against all of the major counterparts so I am expecting new highs soon. Once hit the correction should start towards 1.09+
Stay tuned for more updates!
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USDCHF heading northYou remember near-perfect correlation with EURUSD? Frank has been descending since 2015 and still in the channel. It has recently touched the lower edge and bounced off which is quite predictable. The daily hammer candle proves that. We’re now halfway done to 9658+ (the blue highlighted area). I don’t a guarantee a clear road to that upper edge. I am waiting for retracement. Got some buy limit orders slightly below the current price. USDCHF has been perfectly working out the option levels. Plus there’s a divergence on MACD which might give us a hint the pair head up.
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long above 2105 short below 2080 at these stage spx is on a no go zone , on up side price action is sitting on big resistance around 2095 and a fib level a couple point above that and below it face as support and it quit a BIG one that have been defended for quit some time now but it will be very interesseting to see wich side it's going to actually go , on either side they are big target long side all time high short side around 1600 area would be kind of an ideal target for LONG time swing long !!