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Northkorea

North Korea May Be Behind AXS/RON HackFrom the Wall Street Journal: "U.S. law enforcement linked the Lazarus Group, an online crime syndicate connected to the North Korean government, to the $540 million hack of the online game Axie Infinity last month. The theft, infiltrating the network upon which the game is run, was one of the largest in the 13-year history of cryptocurrencies. The perpetrators stole 173,600 ether and 25.5 million of the stablecoin USD Coin, or USDC, worth about $540 million at the time of the attack." www.wsj.com
Short
by RyanTanaka
Covid in 2020, Inflation in 2021, Geopolitics in 2022The Chinese New Year just passed, and we are now in the year of the Tiger. “May you live in interesting times” is often considered the translation of a traditional Chinese curse. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months In early 2022, the world continues to suffer from COVID-19 variants and the fallout from economic and political policies that addressed the global pandemic. Markets are nervous with choppy price action in markets across all asset classes. The stock market has been threatening to correct to the downside, and bonds have declined on the back of the prospects of rising interest rates. Cryptocurrency volatility continues to be at head-spinning levels. Commodities remain in mostly bullish trends, but bull markets rarely move in straight lines. As we learned in early 2020, the most significant market volatility comes from unexpected events. In early 2022, the world is anything but a stable place as tensions are mounting and the US’s role as the leader of the “free world” is challenged. In 2020, the pandemic caused wild markets price swings across all asset classes. The central bank and government tools addressing COVID-19’s economic fallout dominate markets in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape appears to be the factor that could cause lots of uncertainty and price variance. Markets reflect the economic and political landscapes We follow trends as they reflect the crowd’s wisdom. The old sayings “buy the rumor and sell the fact,” or “sell the rumor and buy the fact,” refer to the market’s habit of fading news leading those who follow the news to lose. Over time, macro and microeconomics and the geopolitical landscape determine the path of least resistance of prices. However, market volatility can cause dramatic short-term moves that defy rational, logical, and reasonable fundamental analysis. In early 2022, markets continue to emerge from the global pandemic. The impact of monetary and fiscal policy tools that stabilized economic conditions has significantly impacted markets that will long outlive the pandemic. Moreover, geopolitical dynamics are shifting, increasing the threat of hostilities across the globe. The pandemic caused market volatility in 2020 and 2021, but in 2022, the price variance could increase as the economic and political landscapes are creating more than a bit of uncertainty, and markets hate uncertainty. In 2021 rising inflation was at the center of the stage In 2021, inflationary pressures rose to the highest level in four decades. The consumer price index rose by 7%, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 5.5%. The producer price index increased by nearly 10%. US GDP also moved appreciably higher. The Fed did absolutely nothing as inflation rose, blaming the economic condition on “transitory” pandemic-inspired supply chain bottlenecks. However, a four-decade high caused the central bank to realize that inflation was more structural than temporary. At the November and December FOMC meetings, the rhetoric became more hawkish, but while the Fed talked a good game, the only change came as they began tapering quantitative easing. Tapering was not tightening as the central bank continued to purchase debt securities. In early 2022, the hawkish squawking increased in volume at the January meeting, but QE will not end until early March, setting the stage for liftoff from a zero percent short-term Fed Funds rate. In 2021, asset prices increased with double-digit percentage gains in the leading stock market indices, commodities, real estate, cryptocurrencies, and other assets. Inflation erodes money’s purchasing power, so the increases in asset prices were a mirage as they reflected the decline of fiat currency values. About halfway through 2021, the US government bond market began screaming that the Fed was behind the inflationary curve. As the chart highlights, the US 30-Year Treasury bond futures fell from the July 2021 167-04 high to 159-31 at the end of December 2021. In early 2022, the long bond’s decent continues with the bonds trading to a low of 150-26 last week, the lowest level since May 2019. The move below technical support at the July 2019 152-28 low could be a gateway to a test of the 2018 136-16 bottom, meaning inflation will continue to push interest rates higher. Inflation will continue to impact markets in 2022 and beyond Last week, we found out that CPI rose by 7.5% in January 2022 with the core reading up 6% as inflation continues to rise. Crude oil is trending towards $100 per barrel, and other prices continue to appreciate. Bull markets in commodities reflect inflationary pressures, but they rarely move in straight lines. Raw material markets tend to be far more volatile than stocks or bonds, but they are inflationary barometers. All signs point to a continuation of higher lows and higher highs in the commodities asset class. At the end of last week, gold was above the $1800 pivot point and threatening to break out to the upside. Gold is the ultimate inflation barometer, and the price has been making lower highs and higher lows since March 2021. Like a tightly coiled spring, the wedge pattern in the gold market suggests that a substantial move is on the horizon. Since the turn of this century, every price correction in the gold market has been a buying opportunity. The odds continue to favor the upside when gold abandons the $1800 pivot price. Inflation is a challenging beast as it creates a vicious cycle that pushes prices higher and fiat currencies lower. In early 2022, the supply chain, labor shortages, and rising input costs continue to pour fuel on the inflationary fire. The shift in US energy policy handed crude oil’s pricing power back to the international oil cartel and Russia. Higher oil prices increase input and transportation costs. Addressing climate change by supporting alternative and renewable energy sources is a multi-decade program. The current US administration is not prepared to increase oil and gas production to lower traditional energy prices. Energy is a root cause of inflation, and the current course of monetary policy tightening is not likely to reduce inflation if oil prices continue to rise in 2022. With core CPI at the 6% level, the Fed would need to increase the Fed Funds rate by twenty-five basis points twenty-three times to push real short-term interest rates into positive territory. The latest FOMC forecasts of a 0.90% Fed Funds rate in 2022 and 1.60% in 2023 means real rates will remain negative, fueling inflation over the coming months and years. Meanwhile, the Fed is in an unenviable position as higher rates will cause the cost of funding the $30 trillion debt to soar. Each twenty-five basis point increase costs $75 billion in debt servicing costs each year. At a 5.5% Fed Funds Rate the price tag is a staggering $1.65 trillion per year. The bottom line is that the US central bank and government are unwilling to swallow the bitter pill necessary to address inflation, which will continue to rise. Just as in all markets, the trend is higher, and it is always your best friend, even when it is devastating for the economy. Geopolitical concerns are rising- China and Russia become allies at the Winter Olympics The US faces more problems on the economic landscape. We may remember the 2022 Beijing Olympics as a watershed event, not for athletics, but a meeting between the Chinese and Russian leaders. President Xi pledged support to President Putin over Ukraine. With over 100,000 Russian troops at Ukraine’s border, it may only be a matter of time before an incursion. The US and Western Europe consider Ukraine part of a free Eastern Europe, and Russia believes the country is eastern Russia. A Chinese and Russian alliance complicates NATOs defense of Ukraine’s sovereignty. Meanwhile, China is committed to reunification with Democratic Taiwan. Presidents Xi and Putin also agreed that the US should not interfere with Chinese plans to bring Taiwan under its umbrella. An alliance between China and Russia over Ukraine and Taiwan has far-reaching geopolitical consequences as it could render sanctions impotent. Russia agreed to supply oil and gas to China via its pipeline system, which fills Russia’s pockets with funds and fuels China’s economy and growth. US allies in Europe and worldwide depend on Russia and China for commodity flows and commerce. The western alliance that supports sovereignty for Ukraine and Taiwan weakens as Chinese and Russian ties strengthen. Iran and North Korea pose threats- Significant moves could come from geopolitical events over the coming months The rise of China and Russia comes at the expense of the United States, the current leader of the free world. Moreover, it encourages US enemies worldwide. Iran continues to enrich uranium as the Biden administration attempts to negotiate a nuclear non-proliferation agreement. The US has an ulterior motive as higher oil prices make increased Iranian production attractive in the current environment. Higher oil prices strengthen Iran’s negotiating position in dealing with the US and Europe. Over the past weeks, North Korea has been test-firing rockets, moving forward with its nuclear weapons program. The hermit nation is now a nuclear power with weapons of mass destruction that could reach the US. Chinese and Russian cooperation only enhances North Korea’s position as an emerging nuclear power. The bottom line is that markets reflect the economic and geopolitical landscape. Uncertainty in early 2022 is at the highest level since the Cold War. As Russia increases its global sphere of influence, it is now the most powerful OPEC+ nonmember, making production decisions alongside Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Russian allies in Cuba and Venezuela are close to US territory, posing a substantial threat to the US mainland if a war in Europe is on the horizon. Aside from conventional military hostilities, technology has created new weapons that could draw the entire world into conflicts. COVID-19 dominated markets in 2020, and rising inflation was at the center of the stage in 2021. In 2022, the geopolitical landscape has become a minefield of potential problems likely to impact markets across all asset classes. -- Trading advice given in this communication, if any, is based on information taken from trades and statistical services and other sources that we believe are reliable. The author does not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects the author’s good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice the author provides will result in profitable trades. There is risk of loss in all futures and options trading. Any investment involves substantial risks, including, but not limited to, pricing volatility, inadequate liquidity, and the potential complete loss of principal. This article does not in any way constitute an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment, security, or commodity discussed herein, or any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
CBOT:ZB1!
by Andy_Hecht
USD/JPY down 0.6% amid growing Trump & Kim rhetoric Morning outlook - USD/JPY down 0.6% amid growing Trump & Kim rhetoric In line with expectations, the currency rate continued to climb to the top, trying to reach the upper line of an ascending triangle pattern, another escalation of the North Korean crisis led to fall of the rate by 68 basis points just in two hours. Accordingly, in the beginning of this trading session the currency rate found itself not only below the updated weekly PP at 112.81 but also the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs. This combined resistance suggests that the pair will be forced to continue to fall. The fact that the closest southern barrier is located only at the 112.20 mark supports the above assumption. On the other hand, as soon as markets will come down, the Dollar is going to start to gradually recover against the Yen.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
GOLD - North Korean GamesCrazy dictator or Mastermind ? Foolish blackmailer or defender of his nation? I leave this question open : time will tell. We don't know it right now, but we have to trade it. I always wonder why people are betting on a nuclear holocaust. I do not think all those who bought gold at 1350-60 in the hope of 1.400 and 1.500 in a week have asked themselves: is there anyone who pays my gold long positions if there was a nuclear war? You can hate KimJong-un . You can say he is crazy. You might think he wants to destroy the civilized world with a nuclear attack. But come on . Think a little bit all the way: why would a 20M nation go against the whole world...? I say all what he is doing is just trying to protect his country against an invasion. It's not the best way but we have to say it is effective. If you have nuclear weapons noone will invade you if you don't attack. I think KimJong-un is ready. By now the whole world knows he has a working nuclear weapon. He also has missiles . He can shoot over Japan. So he is good. He didn't attack anyone he just showed he can attack. As he is well educated I'm quite sure he made a few coins on the gold pop. So by now he has as much plutonium as he wants... Last night's missile launch made no sense at the first sight. But watching Friday's close it looks to me someone exited the long position or entered short position in that midnight bounce. The momentum was killed immediately after the bounce. Only one person knew that's a good point to enter a short position or close the long positions: KimJong-un . The volume of this period 3 times higher than the average volume. (Berlin time 23:00-3:00). With a stop run I would say that's a normal volume after a missile launch... But there was no stop run. If my speculation is right I think we are going to have a de-escalation of this North Korean situation next week. It will have more effect on gold than the FOMC, or the dollar drop/bounce because 2/3 of this rally was produced by these North Korean Games . Technically we are attacking the lower trendline again. It's a double resistance zone as the 100 EMA is also at this level... During the last few weeks as soon as price tagged the 100 EMA it bounced almost immediately and surged higher. This time we have a character change: 1. After price nearly tagged the 100 EMA (09.12) it has bounced and tested back the neckline. 2. This was followed by a drop to the trendline and the 100 EMA again: this time the 100 EMA was broken down. 3. A bounce is coming again (Friday's missile launch) - this is the bounce where I think KimJong-un exited the gold longs or entered the short position ( maybe both) and the second tag of the neckline was followed by one more drop. The RSI is oversold though but this is the point it can be oversold for days. I'M watching the MACD : it's turning down. While we are in the negative territory at the MACD the decline continues... We closed exactly on the trendline . And I think this time the trendline will be broken down violently. Especially if KJ is aiming the de-escalation of the NK situation next week....
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by chartwatchers
57
Bullish USDJPY towards 112Looking on the daily chart. There actually is a bearish shooting star. Many traders would have probably shorted the market in anticipation of lower prices. North Korea launched a missle this morning which tanked the USDJPY quite a bit but not before producing a bullish hammer on the 4hr. Also a breakout and re-test of the descending trend line that I drew. Personally I am not in this trade due to unfavourable R:R but will look to enter on pullbacks on the lower TF i.e. 15mins/1hr. Good trading and cheers!
Long
by UnknownUnicorn552694
Kim Jong Un pushes nuclear gas pedal as seek for tradeoffsSurprising detonation of H bomb by North Korea on Sunday halted a short period of market ease, heaping up investors in the safe heavens and leading to dollar rout. The impact of nuclear blasts as a factor of uncertainty can not be overstated, as the DPRK steps up its nuclear program despite the trade blockade and harsh criticism of the United States, Japan and South Korea. Questioning nuclear war dilemma of Henry Morgenthau and in best traditions of Soviet Union’s Xruschev nuclear threats and squabble seem to be the only tool for Kim Jong Un to conduct foreign policy. Being on the verge, there is no guarantee that he won’t start a real war. Officials from the United States, Japan and South Korea have repeatedly encouraged nonviolent approach to curb tensions, but Kim Jong-un is likely to advance in its program to seek better tradeoffs in case of a parley. South Korea has data that North Korean leader is going to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge. Uncertainty led the curve of the value of gold to a maximum since September 2016, then a pullback came in, as it stumbled upon resistance forces. Futures for gold peaked at $1,443.86 per troy ounce during London start. Escape from risk led Asian stock markets selloff, except China, which closed Monday in positive territory thanks to the successful action of the Chinese government to stabilize the economy economically and reduce the share of debt financing. European stocks are also experiencing an outflow of investors mainly because of the geopolitical factor, as well as growing risk-aversion before the ECB meeting on September 6. Despite the fact that September was considered a long-awaited month when Mario Draghi will give specifics about tapering off the QE, most experts of the Reuters expect a turning-point decision only in October, and the policy change should proceed exceptionally smoothly. EURUSD added about half a percent, as weak data on the US labor market released on Friday put a dent on investor confidence in the US economy. Wage growth, a precursor of inflationary changes, amounted to only 0.1%, which allows us to expect the US economy will begin the fourth quarter with unsatisfactory inflation. The increase in jobs was also disappointing, as it turned out to be below forecasts. Unemployment rose from 4.3% to 4.4%, but this change can not be interpreted unambiguously positively or negatively, as employment in the US has recently shown a weak connection with inflation. The futures market estimates the probability of a rate hike in December at 37.3%. Oil prices move in different directions, WTI finally began to win back losses after the hurricane Harvey, the most powerful in 12 years, paralyzed oil refining and drilling capacities near the largest fields in the US. Brent went into decline despite Russia's statement to support the extension of the OPEC + deal. The Baker Hughes report showed that the number of drilling rigs in the US increased by 3 to 943 (+446 from the same period last year). In Canada, their number decreased by 16 to 201. Arthur Idiatulin
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Tickmill
North Korea - Risk Off trade over weekendTomorrow is North Korea national day and whether or not they will launch another missile is unknown (and if they do Trump will do something just about as stupid). I'm betting there will be some retreat to Risk off asset such as the JPY. The tricky thing is which pair to pick. I've already had exposure to NZD short and CAD long. My rationale is if there is something wrong with the world, real asset or safe haven asset appreciate, this applies to NZD, AUD, CAD and JPY, not so much for the fiat currencies of EUR or USD. The ECB and Fed are quite Dovish in my opinion, I really can't figure out who's more determined than whom yet though. My plan is to split the bet into Short EURJPY and USDJPY at the same time. EUR has no major news next week why USD has CPI on Wednesday so I may not be able to hold that part as far. On the retail sentiment, JPY is being sold and I can't be more happy to go Long.
Short
by vietbach1990
USD/JPY rebounds from monthly S1 at 108.48Morning outlook - USD/JPY rebounds from monthly S1 at 108.48 In accordance with expectations, most of the previous trading day the currency rate spent in an upward movement, using the weekly and monthly S1, as trampolines. Despite such rebound, the further road to the north is still obstructed by the 100- and 200-hour SMAs and then by the weekly and monthly PP. For this reason, today the pair is expected to resume the fall and once again to try to break through the above weekly S1 at 108.80. In the meantime, there is a need to take into account a certain effect that might appear after publication of data on the Japan’s Final GDP at 23:50 GMT. Finally, there is also a need to remember that the rate is simultaneously moving in a senior descending channel and still hasn’t formed a new reaction low.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
!!!!!!****** GBPUSD LONG TRADE !!!!!!******Thanks to the Bullish 1hr candle, I see this pair going long. Price action has broken past 1.295 and i am incline to believe this will now turn to support and stated in the diagram. American war uncertainty > Brexit 1.32000 TP - Nice psychology number which has seen a lot of price action recently. Long position diagram shows when I have enter this trade and my targets. I expect GBP to go long everyday this week, after a slow trading day on monday. Currently waiting on USDCAD price action to determine whether to enter trade to the downside
Long
by AADEDIJI
1
XAU/USD tries to leave channel up Morning outlook - XAU/USD tries to leave channel up A release of the US employment data last Friday predictably stopped the gold from losing value against the buck. In result of the surge that was also strengthened by growing fears over the North Korean crisis, the pair has practically broke through the upper boundary of a dominant ascending channel. From a fundamental side, today the Dollar is not expected to have any news that could motivate it to start to recover. From a technical side, the further surge is obstructed by the updated weekly R1 at 1,339.42 and then by the monthly R1 at 1,348.36. In the meantime, the southern side has a barrier-free area up until the 55- and 100-hour SMAs that are located slightly above the weekly PP a 1,315.75. An average market sentiment point out on a rebound, as 62% of traders remain bearish on the given exchange rate.
FX_IDC:XAUUSD
by UnknownUnicorn890690
USD/JPY slips on fears of Kim Jong-unMorning outlook - USD/JPY slips on fears of Kim Jong-un Over the last couple of weeks, movement of the USD/JPY currency pair was strongly affected by news coming from the Korean peninsula. The same thing happened today as well. In result of a successful test of a hydrogen bomb, the Yen started to actively recover against the Greenback. These growing fears drove the pair straight through a combination of the weekly and monthly PP around 109.75 as well as the 100- and 200-hour SMAs. As a result, now the rate has no any obstacles on its way up until the updated weekly S1 at 108.80. Consequently, the bears are expected to continue to dominate the market at least until the pair will encounter the above support.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Markets use Kim Jong Un to get what they wantThe North Korean leader once again decided to remind of his military achievements to international colleagues, launching a medium-range ballistic missile on Tuesday night. Flying over the Japanese sky the projectile fell into the Pacific Ocean at 760 miles from the island of Hokkaido. Solo pursuit of their nuclear ambitions, despite the sanctions of the UN Security Council, which slashed 1/3 of North Korean export, showed the vainness of economic and political pressure on the regime of Kim Jong-un. The South Korean neighbor reacted with a demonstration of strength, while investors are waiting for the reaction of the United States, keep an eye on Trump's Twitter. The situation on the Korean peninsula will remain the dominant news factor this week, curbing investors' appetite for risk. The escalation of tension, although it looks like a sound, speculative-friendly continuation, the negotiating table seems to be a more likely outcome than full-scale hostilities, as previously spoken by a number of American, Japanese and South Korean officials. Moreover, China will do its utmost to promote a peaceful settlement, since North Korea is a "buffer zone" that constrains the US presence in the region. The threat of a military confrontation on the Korean peninsula has provoked a flight from risks on the world market. Stock markets in Europe and Asia went deep into the red zone, US and European bonds accelerated growth. Gold, yen and franc and other precious metals jumped more than 1 percent due to increased demand for defense assets. During the London trading, the sentiments has been relatively stabilized . The dollar was the least attractive asset today, but the fundamental picture of the US economy does not share the pessimism of investors. Macrostatistics does not give alarm signals, the labor market is at pre-crisis highs, the American consumer is comparatively happy. The matter of the third rate increase remains open. Probably the dollar became a victim of speculative pressure and the crisis on the Korean peninsula served as only a catalyst for general panic. In the dynamics of EURUSD, euro purchases are primarily connected with rumors about the QE folding at the September meeting of the ECB. Without waiting for Draghi, the market has already convinced itself of this. Also, given that ECB officials are concerned about the strengthening of the euro and the risks of “overshooting", the breakthrough of 1.20 level is approaching the moment when the regulator will still make an intervention. Bullish dynamics above 1.20 can be quite deceptive, given that 1.2160 has a level of 50% correction since the announcement of the ECB's QE. Consumer confidence report is due today later, which may offer some support to the dollar. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill analyst
Short
by Tickmill