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BTCUSD - 200 Weekly SMA to the rescue (again)? 🤔What's up traders, gamblers, hodlers? Been a while since I last posted an analysis and this was mostly because I've been in denial that we were in a bear market. Bias is a b#... There is hope though... You see, in the 2 previous bear markets about halfway between halvings, bitcoin has found its bottom on the 200 weekly SMA which acted as support. So maybe, just maybe this might happen again? I know that past performance is no guarantee for the future, but hey, if it happened twice, it could happen again, right? Additionally, the time that has elapsed since the previous halving is about the same as the previous times this happened, which might increase the chances that we'll see bitcoin slowly turn around and start running up towards the next halving. ⚠️BUT .... the financial markets are very shaky, supply shocks, inflation, conflicts ... for a lot of traders and investors this is a RISK-OFF period, so don't expect a sudden turnaround, and keep in mind that just because it happened twice before, it does not necessarily have to happen again. How am I dealing with this situation? You probably know that I'm a strong proponent of HODLing and DCAing. I'm an investor, not a trader. So I've not sold a single satoshi, and I plan on starting to put some buy orders in to DCA considering that the potential upside from here is so much larger than the potential downside ... But this is my money, my decision, and definitely not advice for any of you. So what do you think? ... Will the weekly 200 SMA be the bitcoin SuperHero again and come to the rescue? Share your thoughts in the comments, and if you made it this far reading, you might as well click that thumbs-up button. ;) Have a great day, and whatever you do, don't invest more than you can afford to lose. ✌🏽
Editors' picks
BNC:BLX
by Nico.Muselle
74
GoldViewFX - 1H CHART UPDATED LEVELS & TARGETSHey Everyone, Please see updated weighted Goldturns and targets for the 1H chart. We have a current range between 1659 to 1687 and expect some ranging action between these levels. Technically we will be looking for a break of these levels for a continuation of the bearish move or a full recovery into benchmark pricing. We currently have a cross and lock above 1671 opening 1687. Bullish Targets 1687 1695 Cross and lock above 1695 will open targets to 1708, 1722, 1733 Bearish Targets 1671 1659 Cross and lock below 1655 will open targets to 1647 and 1641. SWING RANGE 1647 As always, we will keep you all updated with any changes to our plans throughout the week. Please don't forget to like, comment and follow to support us, we really appreciate it! GoldViewFX XAUUSD TOP AUTHOR
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
13
SAMO TO ZERO ON THE INVERSE CHART!NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! Samo is going to dump HARD on the inverse chart, and head to ALL TIME HIGHS on the bottom of the inverse chart. Fib spiral placed programmatically using OpenAI's DaVinci, their most sophisticated AI Machine lerning algorithm. Levels are mathematically prudent. This is a message from the past to your future, telling you to buy now (not financial advice!!!). I'm not going to hold your hand, I'm just going to DRAW IT OUT FOR YOU: UPSIDE DOWN!! Slam the inverse sell button (buy) (not financial advice)..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................
Long
by zonkgonk
3
Supplement to “Springish” ideaAt smaller time frame I’m observing an expanded flat with B 1.618 extension of A, and C 1.618 retracement of B. This increases probability of seeing follow through off the bigger picture spring in the accumulation phase going into an expected sign of strength. My last idea, linked, goes into more detail about that but in summary here are my near-term expectations: - continuation up to 111 - pullback from 111 to around 100 - if bounces at 100, begin markup to 140 initial target
NASDAQ:ROKULong
by JabezDolz
ETH CRASH HOW I CAUGHT THE WHOLE MOVEIma let the chart speak for itself Inflation at a all time high Gas prices insane Everything is going up in price Big shark holders in the eth btc luna crypto family etc strategically plan this type of power move as inflation rises you would think cryptos are pumping , your not totally wrong but everything has its due diligence and market structure is the ultimate answer to why the pump has not occured. OTB HAVE BEEN SET INCREASINGLY MAKING DEMAND TO THE BOTTOM SIDE HIGHER , AS BUYERS PREPARE TO BUY THE END CYCLE
BINANCE:ETHUSDShort
by blessedrichkay
1
Semi-Critical Decision Here: Potential for 32580This is an update for my markov analysis of BTCUSD (2 updates preceeded this which are linked as related ideas and describe the concept and methodology). I will keep this one simple and you can refer to the previous ideas for details. BTC has been following this pretty nicely and any anomalous leaps over 1 transition state in a truncated period have been punished with equal and opposite reactions back to the regular path progression of transitioning 1-state per time period. The next 3 levels I am seeing are ranked with highest probability (very near term, this week - from there will update accordingly but 1 of the levels could create a change of character or at least initiate the start of one: Most likely next stop: 30795 (if this occurs in will have to make a more critical decision to consolidate and breakout locally or to reject and retest the 2800s for possible breakdown Second most likely next stop on the condition 30795 is broken is 32758 - this would open the door for the initiation of the change of character because it would be synonymous to jumping across a creek for those familiar with wyckoff. I would expect an explosive break right through 30795 if this path plays out. Third most likely is down from here to 28905 , at which point it would test support again and if there is enough pressure could break down and threaten the dreaded 23k (not really dreaded because that would merely set up for the next motive wave, however, this isn't an EWT analysis - this is a local analysis to examine how BTC is navigating this consolidation range in a stochastically-sophisticated way. Probability does not favor a sharp drop from here, rather, slightly bullish price action which could get the ball rolling for a bullish week in the market due to BTC/ES correlation that has become pretty apparent recently: BTC wears the pants in this relationship. Best, Judge Judy
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by JerryManders
Next transition state lead to 31616.3 New Method I developed and want to test, so this is more of an experiment. General idea is that while a name consolidates it will follow a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), and the next state will be determined by the probabilities of a stochastic matrix. - let a section here be a single diamond and a state be a neighborhood of 4 diamonds. The diamonds are drawn by making a base symmetrical triangle using rays, and then cloned to run parallel to the base at equidistance +-1, +-2, +-3,+-4,...+-n from base with the probability of breakout increasing with increasing n. - the most probable next state will be the range from 28516 - 30840, however, due to the accelerating rate of BTCs most recent transition over the state path (drawn in yellow/highlight and merely connects the observed states in sequence), there is a decent probability BTC will generate the escape velocity here to break above 30840 and test 31616.3 (green projected path), if rejected at or before 30840 it will most likely continue its consolidation (red path). - Estimated time to reach 31616.3 is by May 28. If it can break 31616.3 good chances it will do so by forming an impulse wave, a corrective wave to test old resistance for support, and then attempt true breakout of range and on to more exciting days. Happy Trading, Nash John
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by JerryManders
Update to my Last Idea with Details for those InterestedThis chart is more involved but if you want to know why this will work do the following: - Draw trendlines across each successive high, this is the creek (I did these is light blue): it needs to jump the most recent resistance to move higher and once it does these can act as support - INVERT the chart (alt+I) and do likewise across the successive highs (really the lows), this is the anti-creek (I did these in aqua): It has support at these on regular chart, resistance on inverted, once jumped they can become the opposite * Now, look at the inverted chart and tell me: Would you "buy" this?? There is no way (not yet at least), so why would you be short the regular chart currently... still unconvinced, here is a final step: -recognize that this is an expanded flat (orange count), which will retrace over 100% of B, thus placing the near term upside taget in the mid 40ks... from there it will likely tank and make new low on regular chart (new high on inverted chart). If your stomach feels weak then my work here is done. Sincerely, Billy Walters Jr.
FTX:BTCUSDLong
by JerryManders
A Clear Path from Here - organized whipsaw comingIf looking at this chart at a glance hurts your brain, no worries I will summarize for you below (I need these lines personally to make swing trade decisions but the concept is pretty simple). I am just using "1-5" rather than "I -V" but it is a smaller wave nothing major. Enough to tell us map of near-term price action going into FOMC): Bearish wave 3 was in at yesterdays low (just slighly over 1.618 of wave 1-2), wave 2 retraced just over 50% of wave . Now we are on wave 4. - Expected wave 4 target is 422.21 (0.382 of wave 3). Expecting to see this today actually before starting wave 5 *** IF SPY breaks above 427.52 the bearish count is invalidated (> 0.5 of wave 3). Bulls recently saw this happen back in mid April when the downside pressure invalidated their count at attempted wave 4, if you believe in paybacks don't close out all your calls just yet. Probability does not favor this, however) - Wave 5 could drop to a variable range based on the retracement variability of EWT for wave 5 (I don't make these rules), however, my point estimate is SPY 395.76 (Range 390-400, max extended range 378-411 - you might think that is quite a range but these are the mathematical limits). Point prediction: 420s today, 390s going into FOMC, start of major rally post-FOMC that will begin larger Wave 5 to mid 500s by end of year (below 350 invalidates a 13-year bullish structure prematurely so I would not bank on that if you respect probability). The initial target after the wave 5 at apprx. 395 confirms larger wave 4 correction is completed will be SPY 440s, of course we will have to update accordingly based on the realized levels traded. Possible setup that could invalidate wave 4 is a bearish harmonic with D > 427.52. Based on previous FOMC they love to whipsaw and create escape velocity for the ever "unexpected" post-meeting rally, and with this structure they can whipsaw in a very organized manner. Best to all, Davy Jones
AMEX:SPY
by JerryManders
Pick up that Coin at Actual Floor. JeezEven without chart pattern indicating bounce from here I am a Buyer of shares and mid term calls at this level. Could be a bullish AB==CD with slightly inflated ratios. I realize the general ratios for these are 0.618|1.618 but I have performed backtests on this pattern in general and there is some wiggle room around these, COIN fits the bill here with the ratios shown on chart. Other factors that indicate a post-earnings bounce (likely major bounce) is on the table with todays low marking the bottom: - BTC at infamous 30k support which will likely be the spring low in a major wyckoff accumulation phase before markup to new highs - COIN will follow - Symmetry of B to C and C to D just over 120 days - bullish divergence in the Accumulation/Distribution - This is a great risk/reward especially long-term Targets: Initial target over the next couple weeks is 150 (near term) Intermediate Target will test that overhead around the B at the 0.5 fib (low- mid 200s) (mid term) Target is a full 1.0 retracement to that C at 369 (long term) Sincerely, Jeez
NASDAQ:COINLong
by JerryManders
ARR 50% Retracement OpportunityHello beautiful humans, A 50% retracement presented itself for ARR at the 11.47 level (entry). Managing risk by risking 1% of the account size (eg. account size: $1000; risk of 1%: $10) Placing stop loss / stop limit loss at 10.64 (exit); just below the 61.8% retracement. Looking for the price to bounce off the 50% retracement level (entry), and head on up to the 14.00 level (exit), which provides a risk:reward of approx. 1:3 Thanks for listening. Take care. Friendly Remembering: Manage your risk Have a strategy; minimizes decision paralysis Practice patience Be patient Enjoy the experience.
TSX:ARRLong
by EmbraceFINCO
Be WELLHello beautiful humans, A 50% retracement presented itself for WELL at the 4.75 level (entry). Ensure we close above the 4.75 level to provide confirmation. Managing risk by risking 1% of the account size (eg. account size: $1000; risk of 1%: $10); may need to adjust this depending on commission costs of trading broker. Placing stop loss / stop limit loss at 4.49 (exit). Looking for the price to bounce off the 50% retracement level (entry), and head up to the 5.50 level (exit), which provides a risk:reward of approx. 1:3. Thanks for listening. Take care. Friendly Remembering: Manage your risk Have a strategy to minimize decision paralysis Practice patience Be patient Enjoy the experience.
TSX:WELLLong
by EmbraceFINCO
Cardano. - ADAADA has been in a long downwards consolation period and has seem significant draw dows. ADA. Imo. Ks greatly under valued. Below $1.00. The money flow is moving down putting further sell pressure om the short term market. However. The tren is exhausted with normally indicates a reversal, althought lqgging and waiting for tne money flow to catch up. ADA' s total value lo locked is growing fast and the nexts hardfork scheduled in June beleive thjs to be a good by if not done al alteady.
KRAKEN:ADAUSDLong
by GerryB
Potential upside move for CJR.BHello beautiful humans, Found a 50% retracement level for Corus Entertainment at a price of 4.88; from the low on December 17, 2021 at a price of 4.34, to the high on January 14, 2022 at a price of 5.42. Why a 50% retracement one may ask; a great question that I won't pretend to explain, however, using an Ichimoku cloud has a tendency to indicate a 50% retracement level, specifically by looking at the orange line (leading span B). A great learning provider and content creator on Trading View to help shed more light on this topic is norok (link provided in related ideas). Managing risk by risking 1% of the account size (eg. account size: $1000; risk of 1%: $10) Placing stop loss / stop limit loss at 4.74; looked back to the candle on February 24, 2022 that had a low of 4.75, in conjunction with being at the 61.8% retracement of 4.75, so the stop is set just below. To make this trade worth while in the risk:reward realm, looking for the price to bounce off the 50% retracement level (4.88), which held and closed above on March 24, 2022, and head on up to the 5.30 price level, which provides a risk:reward of 1:3. Friendly Remembering: Manage your risk Have a strategy so we're not overthinking Practice patience Be patience Otherwise, enjoy.
TSX:CJR.B
by EmbraceFINCO
A very sophisticated bullish escape/breakoutWhen I choose a side to trade I take a rather unconventional approach in theory - I trade on the side with the most sophisticated algos driving the market. We don't have access to those algos but we can track their "thumbprints." Check out why I'm personally bullish for the coming weeks: At the 15 minute interval we have wyckoff accumulation as the general picture. Within that, however, fractal Elliots - Blue is a running flat with a leading diagonal coming off the 3-3-5 completion - Green is occuring at the 3-5 minute intervals so difficult to see at 15 (but 15 is the lowest interval TV lets us post so you'll if you go to the smaller intervals yourself you'll see what I'm saying).... yep, another running flat that is completing now - expect a leading diagonal out of that with waves around some critical levels highlighted below: * apprx 451 (or SPX500USD equiv. 4525) is the gamma inversion level where we go from negative to positive gamma exposure - this is also the gap fill from the other day {expect upcoming wave 2 around here to test support after breaking through on wave 1} ** apprx 455 - this is the flag resistance thats been developing over last week, we tested that support at the bottom of the first flat (blue); excpect wave 4 to test support here before finalizing the breakout on that upcoming wave 5. Target after breakout is SPY 473.
AMEX:SPYLong
by JerryManders
4
Near term predictionBased off stochastic RSI and price bouncing off support, expecting a big run today as soon as 2 things happen: 1) price breaks above yellow EMA 33,55 band at the 45 min interval 2) impulse BF turns green Both of these are on the verge of occurring as we speak. The target is straight through the intersection point 3 of the 3 lines: the grey lines are near term support and resistance trend lines of the wedge it broke down from yesterday. The blue line is the longer term trend line that used to be support and has recently become resistance. The dashed line is the range break out level from my recent linked post showing the bigger picture at the daily level. Goal Target still 50240 once this intersection point is breached. I’m sure this will be a gotta see it to believe it for most of you, stay tuned.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by JabezDolz
1
Pretty Clear Setup HereBullish if it respects the flag. Bearish if it breaks below red and then tests it to find resistance. The next support will be the dotted blue downtrend line. We can see on the 4H chart a decision point is coming today. Based on the rsi/stochastic higher likelihood of playing out bullish with continuation to 4700s in the coming weeks. From past Fed meetings it’s becoming apparent they love to fake down right before the minutes to create some escape velocity and then whipsaw it to the upside so watch for that. Good luck.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by JabezDolz