November
EURUSD Small Term Upwards Correction (First Published Idea!)If correct, we should expect a slight bullish correction. However, Fed Rate Interest decision will define if we'll have a bearish or bullish trend over the next months.
I'm adopting the Elliot Wave Theory for these initial series of ideas, mixing eventually with future Fibonacci retracements that will indicate the entry point of each trade.
Ethereum - A Contender for the Crown, or Impending Ice Age?One of the fellows following me asked me about Ethereum, and in the process of answering his question, I started on the analysis and figured I'd just finish it and post it. Ethereum is a coin that I was really interested in when I first came back to crypto in July. As time has gone on and all of this bubble has played out, I have become increasingly bearish on it for the following reasons.
Ethereum is a solid project and Vitalik is a very capable and respectable guy. That being said, the value of this token intrinsically is actually pretty small, as one can quite easily see that the reason Ether has scaled in value is from demand and hype from the ICO phase, along with the potential that Ether could possibly dethrone Bitcoin's first mover advantage. The ICO phase is now completely destroyed and will never return. The bag holders it has left behind will never return to crypto and never be able to recover their losses, and that's not even counting those who got ripped off amidst scams.
It seems virtually none of the dApps that have come out are particularly groundbreaking or real-world usage to justify the enormous market cap they were once demanding. Arguably the best coin in ERC20 was OmiseGO, and that token is in brutal falling knife decline.
Worse is, when it comes to the idea of "The Flippening", Ethereum has a fundamental problem in this upcoming challenge because Bitcoin Core (BCore)/Blockstream has planted the BGold fork with a Proof of Work change to GPU mining. This means that if the day comes where the Bitcoin Core blockchain loses hashpower to Bitcoin Cash or Segwit2x and BCore parachutes to BGold, Ethereum will eat nuclear pain via multiple red candles because it'll lose its GPU mining network to BGold as BGold pumps in profitability.
Furthermore, think about it: What's the difference between Ethereum and Ethereum Classic? Ethereum Classic is ~$10 and Ethereum is $300. I realize the history of the fork and the differences between the two, but there is absolutely _not_ 2900% benefit to ETH over ETC, and so ETC pricing could be something that ETH returns to in the future.
Looking at the technicals we're in an ascending triangle and Ether should be building pressure to retest the ATH line. Ideally, the ATH line should be flat, but we can see the last run towards $400+ was anemic even amidst bubble mania. Right now, on the 6H chart, we have a red kumo twist, it has broken the bull run trendline from $16, and both MAs of Willy21 and Stoch RSI show downward, collapsing momentum, and momentum just logged its first purple tick. (Edit: This has changed since I prepared this post last night).
All this is great, but keep in mind, this pattern is not surprising for consolodation either, attracts a lot of short sellers, and can be squeezed very hard. With everyone throwing their hat in the ring for who can become "Bitcoin" in November, I'm sure Ether will make itself known. But right now, neither price actions nor fundamentals are looking particularly healthy for it.
I wrote this last night and didn't publish it. In the mean time, Ethereum just had a nice spike and may be waking up for exactly the scenario above. A breakout above $325 would be indicative of a new run. However, for the size of breakout it is (small), it's extended the oscillators pretty far, so it may end up failing and breaking down quicker than it looks, and it may continue to break out upwards.
Bitcoin consolidation zone - Road to 15 novemberfractal progression + fibonnaci wedge + elliot impulse wave
DAX 29/11/2016I would prepare my strategy for tomorrow as follows. I would start getting a bearer, waiting at level 10520 to put a bullish entry waiting for a pullback up to 10560. Finished the pullback would make a second entry from that level expecting to close as take profit the level 10490. Total of pips approximated to that of the 200: 90 operation First entry, 40 of the pullback and 70 of the last entry. It would move the Stop Loss to a position of Stop profit near the level of the pullback, being in the case of a change of direction to be able to take advantage of the first operation. I would move it close to level 10570.
Take Good Trading
EURUSD 28/11/2016My First idea of movement to EURUSD. We can see a pullback but we will reach the end of the day 105600.
DAX 28/11/2016I look forward to seeing a bearish GAP that causes a bit of boost in the DAX during Monday. We will have two clear targets. The first in 10745 and the second in 10780. I do not think we will see more than 10780. From there we can observe constant pullbacks between levels 10660 and 10760.
DAX 22/11/2016Hello to all ... Tomorrow we will be able to see some rise of the DAX. It will start with a bearish trend and then start some bullish positions although I think we will see many small pullbacks. The "sharks" are accumulating and that can cause that at once we have a "jump" both bearish and bullish.
1 Target - 10650
2- Target -10720
3- Target - 10750
DAX 21/11/2016DAX will start with a bearish GAP. It will continue with a bullish tendency until the zone of the 1 Target to return later to its downward tendency and to reach the zone of 2 Target. The Bearish Impulse is ending and surely on Tuesday we will see an upward trend.
1 Target 10750
2 Target 10600
Bullish Bitcoin Scenario Valid till December 1stBeen few days wanted to publish this so here it goes. All reasons to buy in are on the chart (see above)
A failure of this scenario to the should be considered ONLY if ONE of those is fulfilled:
1. the 1D RSI drops back below the red trend line - to not recover
2. if we fail to move above 385 between now and November 16
3. if we drop below 330-340 (support fails)
4. if the 1D bullish cycle is weaker than its April 2014 counterpart.
November Bitcoin Prediction 2014I think a test of the 2000 level in china is going to happen quite soon. It seems as if the only buying pressure coming off of the last selloff was from short covering, which is not bullish. Natural buying pressure seems low, but this may change at lower prices. Support at 2150 is strong, but may break soon; the next significant support level is around 2000 yuan.
Currently, there is no clear sign that the downtrend has finished. To me, it appears that the bitcoin market is responding to negative/bearish developments in gold and the U.S markets, while it has little response to any bullish/positive developments. The last correction that peaked at 2500 yuan did not break any significant resistance levels and to me did not suggest the end of the bear market. For me, a clean break of $450 would be a convincing bullish case. Therefore, I may as well assume the downtrend is not finished, and very well may go parabolic at the behest of more negative developments or naturally. In my worst case scenario, bitcoin continues the parabolic trend and makes a low around 1200 yuan or $205. In this case, there could be such panic that it could drive us even lower. This case is represented in yellow and purple.
Another case would be a retest of 2000, where bitcoin found significant support before continuing the ascent; this could serve as enough support to prevent us from making a new low and carving out the beginnings of an uptrend. This is represented by green and red.
I think the last scenario is not likely, but possible. There, bears are too weak to break 2150, and we go up from here. I don't think this will happen just because of the lack of interest in this price level for bulls. Bears have not made the next move yet, but they have plenty of time. It is always good to consider all possibilities and to expect that the market may not do what you predict.
