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EJ MARKUP : Zone Work-- Although its about to hit tp I wanted to point out this notion: --> Consistently gaining a set amount of pips versus the vigorous psychological stampede of trying to hit Jackpot every trade was a humbling lesson from my experience! --> 10 - 30 pips can go an absolutely long way when you know how to use it. Don't get me wrong, I want that beautiful swing trade that is going to bat my balance to an overall home run of notable increase. Yet, I also want a good batting average where I can build the mental strength combined with the skills necessary that will take my runners through all four bases and prepare me for that home run! The pitcher and the umpire will just be playing a game of catch once they get you to strike out. From one beginner to another - stay humble - know your strategy - know your play - build the skill and psychological strength to bag more winners and losers with good sportsmanship - get your runners to home plate and get some points on the board - That home run move is coming -- it's waiting on you! How you play is solely up to you but knowing how you playing is crucial! --> know your strengths --> know your weakness --> use them to your advantage Best wishes to all P.S. If you have any tips, notes, or something funny to add .. Please do! I look forward to it. - Happy Trading &%
Long
by MoltiBucks
Gold & Stocks what's in store for the next yearSome have asked me my opinion on gold & the stock market. I sort of already wrote it in other ideas a bit here a bit there but I'll make a clean separate one. I'll be able to show this to the bagholders that joined late and rage at me telling me I am sore I missed out, in a year or two. Make sure to replace "will" by "I think the probability of this happening is higher than the probability of the opposite happening". If you are looking for certainty I know a few "legends" and day traders who would be happy to tell you what they are certain will happen :) I heard an anecdote about a TA day trader in a firm, firms have day traders coming in waves especially around market tops, and alot of people hate them. The technical expert in question was an overconfident "know-it-all". If 400 lots rekt this analyst he had to be a day trader. In this example the day gambler was not even profitable. After years (before joining the firm) he lost all of his money and alot of other people's money. Imagine being an arrogant know-it-all without even making any money. The person telling the story says he was a good analyst, I guess he could call levels oh great! Takes way more than this. Day traders start to infest the financial world every time a market goes into euphoria. It is absolutely amazing how they are not aware the market conditions are not the same as 95% of the time, they think going up 100% in 3 months is just regular old growth? Too busy looking at their 5 minutes charts to be aware of the cycle the market is in? They have a tendancy to be cocky, without having earned it. They mistake luck for talent. What these "technicians" and "day traders" fail to grasp is that all they did was being long beta in a very volatile (high stdev) uptrend market (in or close to euphoria). Might as well just have bought the SnP & the VIX. On the other hand "investors" (you know what I mean) that will soon say "I am in for the long term", in particular "OGS", also mistake luck for genius but how they made money is being permabulls in a raging bull market. The laggard "investors" will probably be around bagholding in a year or two, but how many of the day traders will still be around? How many are smart enough to stop day trading and do something else when the conditions change? Less than 1% in my opinion. We are in the era of "investors" and "day traders". Dave Portnoy "Captain of the ship" is the picture they should use in books about bubbles in the future. They add nothing of value, both. All the do is make bubbles worse. Go up more and then drop more too. If they were somewhat useful they would make money even after the bubble exploded. From my little experience with stocks and crypto I would say noobs (let's sum up both groups in 1) join in what we can divide in 2 waves. The "OGS" and the top buyers. After those there is a 3rd wave, the "dip buyers", but it is not relevant to this idea. I will show on a chart those groups. Soooooo I covered gold in many ideas before. Here is one of those: The "hot pick" will be the stock market. Gold won't go up for this reason, as well as because it is at all time high extended without much buyers and price usually hesitates for a while around this area (gold at previous ath, bitcoin at 1k, the stock market with all the bears in 2015, etc). I think gold has a high probability of staying sideways for a few months and of visiting $1700 and this would be a decent price looking to hold until at least 3k. The stock market (but tech in particular) in my opinion has a high probability of remaining in a range for a few months, well 2 or months, you know what happens in 2 months. And then skyrocket up for at least 6 months. I would buy the nasdaq around 10900. I have no idea what I am doing thought. If I lose it's just 1R gone big deal. Good thing I do not work for a firm. I can imagine how it would go 😄 "So you are ultra bearish on the stock market but you want me to extend you some limits for buying stocks is that right?" "Yes sir" "Why?" "Because I'm not an idiot" Stares at me with a traumatized look mixed with disgust "Also lost my last couple stock trades" In term of experience (live backtest reading) I got a couple hundred hours in stocks, a few hundreds in Bitcoin (2000 but most of it was generic stuff or screaming it will go to zero for fun so I do not count it) and already about 10000 hours with Forex Gold Oil Copper (mostly FX) + what I learned about money at skewl (After 2 years of associate degree equivalent in math & 1 year of learning about computers security programming etc) and during my first job as a "swift expert". I'd say I learned more useful things in math (logic, reasoning, proof by the absurd) & stats (I don't even like stats but if it is the basic things it is ok) than in banking/currency classes or helping banks as the swift guy lmao, useless. Not counting those years in the 10000 total. Ye so basically don't listen to me. I'm just making educated guesses. I know about as much about stocks than Davey day traders. But I am usually right. I have been for a long time. I have no proof and nothing to show for it but I called the bitcoin bottom in 2014 I think it was the last 1/5 of the retrace which I called. Bottom area anyway. Could have bought the very bottom lol. I have old calls but that's in FX so doesn't count. And then Bitcoin again. Was I ever right about stocks? Like right as in precise? I can't even remember 😂 I think I sort of understand them but mmmm idk. We will see. I was right about Tesla I thought it was too crowded by bears and it was bad to short it. It's something. Perma bear on it but doesn't mean I don't think it can go up. I was dead right about Facebook and it gapped down massively back in 2018 buuuut I sold too early and got stopped at the top (: Most people, that do not understand probabilities, want certainty, it comforts them. Really the majority of people can't stand uncertainty it drives them nuts and they'll do anything for certainty (that's where speculators come in - they absorb short term risk for profit over the long run). But there is a secret trick! No joke. There is 1 hidden secret way to have certainty. Well 2 if I count insider info. The trick is value investing. You are certain the stock is historically expensive or cheap. Now the way stocks are valued can change and the old expensive can become the new cheap (HAHAHAHA can't help laughing while typing this), it never does and casuals think it is happening in every bubble and always get rekt, but in theory it is possible. Could change by a little bit this is very possible, by alot thought seems highly unlikely. So ye this is pretty high certainty. Cheap stocks, expensive stocks. An investor doing his research can be certain a stock is cheap when he buys it. The country can still collapse, the currency can explode (cough cough usd), Warren Buffet says "the usa survived everything" it kills me to hear anything that stupid by the king of survivor bias he was a permabull during the usa biggest secular bull in history (the usa of which history is only really 200 years btw, 400 at best). If Mr permabullfett was born in 1800 and invested between 1820 & 1900 I doubt he would say this. I'll get into stocks as a value investor. Or never. I'll just look for several diversified low risk funds to put my money in, not looking to get any returns. Any way to invest in tradingview? They're going to get a wave of new accounts like in 2017-2018 with crypto. About gold I will short it if it drops down, really quickly, and then I'll have a long bias as it goes up.
TVC:GOLD
by MrRenev
HBI - Who's trading ?This morning I decided to add HBI to my watchlist. The current price is $10.21. Support levels at 9.30 and resistance at 14.85. Had a pretty big dip in price yesterday of over a $1 per share (about 10% loss). I've read a variety of opinions on this one. Group chats seem to be equally divided among bears and bulls. Personally, I'm going bullish on this one. I do not plan to hold this stock longer than a day a two. I plan on entering anywhere between the current price and 10.30. Indicator Analysis Price pierced through EMA, candlesticks trading above moving average in shorter time frames, however, no definite cross has been made in longer period time frames. Short-period about to cross the orange line from below the zero line. One minute and 3-minute time frames showing the short period already pierced through. The Current price is already trading below the lower Bollinger band. In shorter time frames, price is close to the middle Bollinger band, hopefully an uptrend is on its way. Placing my entry order at 10.30, exiting at 12.25. Not looking for something big, just a quick hundred dollars hopefully. Any thoughts? I would appreciate hearing from the experienced day traders out there. I'm 21 and started day trading just a few weeks ago after losing my time for 4 years following fundamentalists. I like having conversations with people that will help me grow within my journey rather than bullshit on me for my age.
NYSE:HBI
by normaescobarca
4
WTF happens next?!There's a lot going on here, so bear with me (no pun intended...). First off, take a look at the two channels that I've drawn. We started this decline with a fairly steep downtrend channel. We broke out of that channel to begin a less steep downtrend channel. The bears are winning but their momentum is slowing... You'll also notice that we are near the top of that downtrend channel, which suggests that we're either getting ready to pop out of it again or headed down to the bottom of the channel. Now take a look at the red line at 11,500. This line began with a double top back in early 2018 just as the bears were building up steam. It is also the support line of the first red candle that started the downtrend. We've been bouncing around that line in a pitchfork with the center-line just below this red line. This red line is also slightly below the 0.5 fib (Although you could argue that the red line should be on the 0.5 fib; I chose this line because it's a psychological number and because of the candle support). This is another sign that we're ready to break out on the upside or down to the next support levels of 10,600 or even 9,800. Another signal that has me thinking we could go either way from here is that we are right in the middle of the general growth channel of Bitcoin that began all the way back to the beginning of the Coinbase chart. I'll talk more about this in a later post. While we are in the middle of the chart and moving horizontally, we are actually moving down relative to the slope of the channel, which is another indicator that the bears are winning. Lastly, I see a bull pennant formed by the top of the current channel and a trendline that began after the spike up from 9800. This suggests to me that the bulls have more to run. The good news is that we will know which way this market is going in just a few days (before July 10). So we can make our next move based on whether we exit this flag on the upside or the downside. If I were a betting man (which I clearly am if I'm investing in crypto!), I would say that our position inside the general growth channel is in our favor for continued long term growth of BTC. Also, the changing slope of the downtrend channel has me thinking the next slope will be higher still. Furthermore, it took about 5 days to break out of the previous channel and here we are again 5 days later approaching the apex of the bull flag. Note that the apex is also in the middle of 0.5 fib and 11,500. Working against us are the large pumps and dumps that occur due to small volumes as well as the fact that the market seems to go against general expectations. One last note: Longs currently outnumber shorts by 2:1 on Bitfinex. A movement to the low-side could snowball as those margins are called and stop-losses are triggered. That's a tempting proposition for someone with enough capital to move the price in that direction. Long story short: I'm invested for the long run with some cash on hand to grab more if prices drop.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by quickshoe
2
Continuation of the trend?I'm cautious about adding at this point. We had a good rally today, bouncing of the 0.382 Fib. However, this puts us at the top of our downtrend channel. We're also near the high of the general growth channel. This is where indecision gets the best of me. The circumstanced tell me to take some profits. We have strong support at $9600 but if this downtrend continues, then we could be back in the $7300 - $9000 area. I'm waiting to see if we hold this level, continue the local downtrend or break out of the current channel. I'd like to wait to buy again at lower prices but BTC never seems to do what I want it to. I can afford to hold for now...
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by quickshoe
Back in the channelNotice: this is my first post, however, I have been investing in BTC through the good times and the bad. I see a lot of posts suggesting that BTC is going to crash below the yearly low and that makes me nervous. I'll be honest, this current rally makes me nervous. I'm left wondering whether to pull the trigger and take some profits. The rate of price increase is shocking. I actually feel like I'm being shocked with electricity with the constant feelings of fear that it will tank and fear (or greed in this case) that I'll miss out on further gains. Looking at the chart, the thing that struck me most of all, is that we are only just back inside the historical channel of Bitcoin's price growth. Check it out for yourself - I'm showing a 1 day timeframe for resolution but if you zoom out to 1 week, you'll see the channel. The $3k lows that we experienced were a historical anomaly, which were the result of the bubble created by the 2017 media hype as well as the introduction of CBOE futures. CBOE futures were introduced at the Dec '17 high and seem to have put downward pressure on the price ever since (I tried to post a link to the impact of CBOE on BTC price here but I need more reputation points... Google it). Now that the effects of futures trading have been eliminated, the price of BTC is allowed to return to it's natural growth. A conspiracy theorist might suggest that the derivatives were used as a tool to push the price down and create the lowest possible point for institutional investors to jump on board. I am not one for conspiracies but I do like to consider possibilities... and it's hard not to get caught up in causation vs correlation debates in this case. Now we have Fidelity providing crypto services to select institutional investors so it's no surprise that the price has been steadily rising with the Fidelity news. We might even speculate that Fidelity's top account holders have been slowly injecting capital into the market since well before the news hit. I can also imagine that they didn't want to inject a boatload of capital all at once; both to manage risk and to give themselves time to build larger positions before the price shoots up. It's my belief that those positions are still growing as the price increases. I believe that Fidelity will continue to open up their crypto trading to more investors as they work through their own learning curve and establish some success stories. When I called to ask if I could participate in Fidelity's crypto services, they politely declined. I believe in Fidelity. I've used them as a broker ever since graduating from college. I believe that we may be underestimating the impact that the Fidelity news holds. I can imagine that as they offer their services to more and more investors and as those funds come on board, the price of BTC will continue to rise. I also recognize that new money is nervous money and a slide downward can happen just as quickly as a rocket upward. Believe me, it hurt to see my assets cut in half and I certainly don't want that to happen again. That's why I'm nervous right now. But I also see a lot of things to be excited about. I'm not a sophisticated investor but this experience has taught me a lot. I learned that I should never try to catch a falling knife. I learned to wait for the trend to change before changing my position. I don't need to hit the top or the bottom. I just need to figure out which direction the train is going so I can jump on board. Also: stop-loss is your friend. Margin is not.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by quickshoe
2
Bitcoin UpdateAs mentioned in previous publication, Bitcoin will rely heavily upon good/bad news to make a directional decision. Yesterday it was formally announced that BlackRock invest firm which manages ~$6.28tril in assets has a dedicated team exploring Bitcoin and Cryptocurrencies. This particular announcement assisted in a break through of the 6360-6380 resistance with a move up to 6720 at yesterdays close for an increase of just over 5%. Moving forward, should all 'Bad' news stay at bay, we should see a consolidation within the 6650-6750 range. Should it get a slight move up it will need a break and daily close above 6850 with some volume for confidence. 6850 is both top of the zone and the neckline of the iH&S as pointed out in the chart. Remember, if trading this in the current state before August 10th ETF decision, be vigilant and up to date within the space for news as it comes. Should any 'setbacks' be announced it could drop to zones marked in green boxes. Extra: Coinbase has also claimed they have been given the all clear to list tokens/coins that have been deemed securities. This means that should a token be classed a security it would have to register with a Broker dealer. In this case, should the news be true, Coinbase will most likely be the first place. Thanks for reading. If you enjoyed this or found it informative, please give it a like and leave a comment. Cheers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SomeCryptoLord
Bitcoin short term with ETF decision date in mind.As mentioned in the heading this Bitcoin 0.14% analysis is a short term outlook with ETF decision date in mind. First of all, based on my previous analysis, what I had failed to realize was that there is a high chance it could have pulled back from the resistance to create a iH&S neckline. As outlined in the chart this neckline resistance is also confluent with a support zone first noticed in Feb and tested again in Apr 0.39% . Moving on, I believe we do not have that many realized support zones left should market sentiment decrease dramatically and spark another mass selloff. I also believe that the main catalyst for this could be that a Bitcoin 0.14% ETF is declined by the SEC. (Proposed decision date is the 10th of August) This date could also spark a slight rally should social media/Digital asset news sources increase sentiment with valid reasons as to why the SEC should pass the bill. (as of now, I am not confident they will, but could change) Should the price increase and reach the neckline resistance (marked in red) before the 10th of August, keep an eye and ear out for positive news as it could assist in breaking upwards setting off news/breakout buyers. In the chart I have outline possible targets should a breakout of the neckline occur. Targets are marked as grey zones with the first line being what I believe would be a weak resistance. The zones come down to your own optimism. The next 'BIG' moves within this time will all come down to news as it is available. In closing, if you are going to be playing this leading up to the date, be very vigilant and up to date with news from trusted sources and social media. If you are like me and siting this one out till absolute confirmation on several fronts, take note of price action in between to learn for future reference when trading other markets. Thanks for reading and please leave comments and feedback. I'd love to hear any criticism/positive feedback. Cheers guys.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SomeCryptoLord
A small bear play before possibly inverse head and shoulder??!!A following on from yesterday we have a bear Break from the equilibrium below 6423, which has been a reasoalble solid support previously. The volume for the break is less than the previous two bear break so the momentum may be week. A potential bear play would be enter now (aggressive) or enter at retest of 6423 or 12 ema, with a tight stop loss at 6423 or 12 ema. With target 1 at 6295 or 6107. I think with the weak bear volume we may be potentially setting up for an inverted head and shoulders.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by bitcharlie
Bitcoin Idea going forwardAs Bitcoins volatility has decreased along with quick chops appearing past months, my short term plays will be slightly longer to allow movement between S/R zones. As a newer trader it can be easy to lose myself within the quick moves on shorter time frames. That is also why I have been focusing more on larger time frames to get a better perspective of direction. I believe if we can break up above this 7-7.2k area with more volume I will be looking at psychological levels at $500 intervals ie: 7.5k-8k-8.5k and so forth. I am no expert and this is my first publish so please let me know what you think. Thank you all in advance.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SomeCryptoLord
BTC still heading up to $10k - corrected EWGot some good advice from other users here on TV and made some corrections to my chart, although my idea of the Elliot Wave forecast remains intact. I've extended the Fib levels to get a better forecast for Wave 3 and 5 and used the linear regression tool to more accurately show the uptrend channel. Although my charting is novice, I still believe the markets to be bullish in the long term. Short term corrections and consolidations are necessary for long term gains. It appears that we are in a consolidation period with a bull flag on this first wave. It should break loose before Friday ends (here in the States). Have a great Day!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by bluemt95
1