The One That Got Away After a ten-month hiatus from charts, I came back to charts to try to rewire my trader's eye. Fundamentally, intuition tells me that Gold is bullish; I had a one-minute time frame entry in the highlighted region, I was doing everything wrong against my system overtrading, the timeframe is not my entry timeframe, I overleveraged after three years of trading, I'm still making rookie mistakes of wanting to have that one big trade that will take care of everything. Consciously I'm keeping track of my emotions; anxiety was at an all-time high when executing this trade. I pulled out the trade too early to recoup some of my daily losses, plus add 10% growth to my account. I may still have profit, but I lost the war with my mind. However, long story short, you can feel you are the most skilled trader of all time, but you can't beat an uncalm mind
Novicetrader
BTC | Q2 FORECAST | ALWAYS SHARPENING THE BLADEHaving surface knowledge of the financial markets, I've realized that instead of trying to perfect my craft, why not just document my progress - so here we go - still a bit scattered for now...
For the past year or so, my system has been based on fundamentals, historical data, MA setups upon entry (15m & 4hr TFs) & attempts to apply the Fib Retracement.
I've recently just found that TradingView offers so many features such as the diff indicators & the capability of publishing ideas such as this, which is why I will now be dedicating a small amount of time to enrich my technical skills & analysis in the cryptocurrency market. Indicators will slowly be added to publications once I gain more confidence & familiarity in applying them
As for my analysis in this idea, my main strategy/ies for the past year have been pretty much across the board:
Time horizon: 8-12 week accumulation (per quarter)
Target: Price Targets here have been set around Q2
Initial Tools & indicators I started with:
EMA | RSI | Volume | Fib | Trend line/s | Support / Resistance line/s
Additional tools as of Feb 2022
ADX | OBV | F&G index
Primary Influence/s:
TradingMavericks
scottmelker
EmperorBTC
MaccMeister
AVAX | BREAKING DOWN MY LIQUIDATION CALL | SHARPENING THE BLADEAVAX | Avalanche - A promising smart contract platform in the blockchain industry
My past week in the futures market & leveraged trading has been extremely well, and by saying that I don't mean it was all sunshine, but rather the learning process and how obvious the solutions are in order to succeed.
That said, I'd like to review a sour trade I've made yesterday out of excitement & recklessness.
Now as we all know, hindsight is 20/20. Let's have a look at my short-term trade with AVAX.
By the end of February, many coins were poised for a breakout, and possibly a trend reversal. Unfortunately, that was rejected after a short-lived bull run during the first week of March.
Even though I'm bullish on the crypto space, I still wanted to take advantage of this trend that was pretty clear. Having the capability of shorting some familiar coins, AVAX was my short of choice.
The first few trades were excellent. I secured my positions close to the top and slowly strengthened my position as my analysis came closer to confirmation. Once the down trend had started, I was already in a good spot.
After securing my profit is where the mistake happened.
Instead of allowing the impulse to fully take form after the drop, roughly around the 261.80% Fib level, I had gone back in too early which would cost me my capital.
Ideally, a more sound approach is to let patience rule for this period. Though excitement & the happy hormones of making the right call can cloud our judgement, it would probably be best to do a thorough check on all your indicators & redraw your chart.
Leverage can either go with you or against you, and that doesn't just go for money. Time, emotions, these are all leveraged as well, we have to understand that .
The right call; extreme joy, less time to grow your capital, and more returns of course.
With a bad call though - extreme anxiety, frustration, more time will be required to rebuild, and less returns of course.
A few key points to remember
- Learn how to use the Fib Retracement tool & Trend-based Fib
- For beginners, unless you have an entry/exit route or map planned out, it's best to re-chart & re-analyze your play before going back in to avoid controllable losses.
- Even though you have confirmed the general trend, you will still need to determine the best ranges in order to succeed in trading, most especially if leveraged. (Always seek the best price)
- The larger your leverage, the more accurate your calls must be.
- I have found the least anxiety & self-doubt and more confidence with my analysis when I strengthen my position ONLY when my initial position is green - this way, my only risk would now be my profit.
Leverage wisely.
LUNA | BASE ZERO DURATION / BREAKOUT TERRA - LUNA - perfect Base Zero Duration Setup
Always been in my top 5 since it came under my radar late last year.
I wish I had published this analysis days before the recent breakout.
Fortunately, having some knowledge of LUNA’s fundamentals & potential - I have been posting cost average entries as early as November of 2021 in the spot market.
However, it was only until last week that I’ve gained conviction with my positions/entries, and I mainly have @TradingMavericks & Base Zero to thank for that.
I’ll let the chart do the explaining on this one as I've just exited my position and will need to adjust my next entries & secure positions for my original forecast of Q2.
Buy & Sell Signals are in the side notes which I've managed to follow so far, fingers crossed, knocking on wood.
Now that I’m planting some conservative seeds in the futures market, checkpoints to the finish line will be achieved easier with leverage but will require our timing to be as accurate as possible.
The sword must be continuously sharpened for each strike.
FTM | Q2 FORECAST | PRIMED FOR ANOTHER RUN? Fantom Foundation - The core of the new internet
At the end of Q3 last year, FTMs fundamentals strengthened as infrastructure projects started to line-up and grew my interest for it.
After standard checks & DMOR, along with a nice EMA setup, first entry was made at the end of September and position was strengthened through regular cost averaging.
Happy with the % return, I slowly started to cost average my way out before the end of November.
This year, with some new found technical progression, my main focus will be incorporating that for a clean execution of positions.
Solid fundamentals, untapped potential & mass adoption, I remain enthusiastic on this coin & is reminiscent of Solana's (SOL) run in Aug 2021.
BASE ZERO - recently shared by @TradingMavericks - still working on tightening my reference points
KEYPOINTS in chart
RESOURCES
- messari
- fantom foundation
- github