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US10Y Bounce at 3.332% then to 5.376 by Summer 2023The current pitchfork trend is holding and I'm looking at the US10Y reverse at 3.332% this month. I'm also expecting the fed to over tighten or some other news event to drive the US10Y to 5.376% by June 2023. The nature of pitchforks are able to easily visualize the physics of the market and I'll do my best below to explain what I'm seeing. From a price action perspective the US10Y broke the median from the beginning of time and is coming back to re-test it as support. As of August 2011 gap down to Jan 2014 price action has respected that median range through today. In the world of physics, when you have a huge swing away from the median, you'll also have the same energy swinging back in the other direction. Think of a swinging palm tree in the wind. The same is happening here and is illustrated by capturing the breakdown in Feb 2020 where price quickly broke trend then held the 3 standard deviant move down during the 2020 crash. US10Y has quickly made a move in the other direction and is preparing to breakout with huge force.
TVC:US10Y
by GammaRayGoated
Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th 2023Light Crude has lost a significant level at 78.16 and is reverting to the mean at 54.09 as demonstrated by my pitchfork trends and sigma measurments. Pitchfork Price Action Analysis Light Crude has broke out of the recent uptrend (with red median) and broke away from the (red) mean on Jun 14th 2022 (priced at 123.68). Since then it has started to follow the down trend median with an attempt to break out on Nov 7 2022 (priced at 93.74)but failed to do so. Price is looking for buyers at the 68.15 and if it fails to find them then this trend will revert to the median trend that broke out in Dec 22, 2021. That will take Light Crude to 54.09 by Jan 13th, 2023. Flash Crash Should we continue the trend down I can actually see a flash crash to 40.63 by Feb 28th 2023. This will be the full sigma move and will be an area where I'll look to buy into a reversal.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by GammaRayGoated
1
AVGO 481Timeframe: Multi-month swing Last week AVGO retested and rejected the weekly 10MA yet again and sold off rather quickly. I'm targeting price to eventually make it to 481 over the next month or two. For the last 3 weeks we have yet to get above the golden zone around 594-598. We have also yet to close above the weekly 10MA for 10 weeks. How to play this? • I'll be looking for price to cross 539.72 to signal that AVGO would like to go lower in the coming weeks. If price never crosses below that level this week then we can play the upside. • Once the trigger hits I would be getting in to take it to 531. Trigger (539.72) then reversal plan: • I would look for a bearish reversal pattern on the daily around 558 and 562 to take it short. Things to look out for: • Be aware that price can cross 539 this week, reverse to 558, and then reverse again the following week. • Short term I could see some upside retracement to 558-562 to retest last week's price area. There is very strong supply at this level as it is the bottom of the VWAP (from April 2022). This means a lot of folks are holding the bag and they might be anxious to get out at that level. Short Invalidation/Bullish: Short invalidation area is at 576.27. At that point I would take it up to 583, 594 then 598 (golden fibs).
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by GammaRayGoated
1
AMZN moon mission incomingThings are looking very bullish for Amazon and I'm planning to take profits quick and reload at support and resistance zones. 1.) 130 min 2up candle to Daily Bullish Randy Jackson Entry If price breaks 3273.14 I plan to play calls up to 3281 and watch to see if we reject or continue to moon. 2.) Bullish Randy Jackson: If price breaks through 3282.37 then I'll look to ride it up to my PT Targets: 3298.69, 3305.61, 3312.86, 3321.04 3.) Outside Bar scenario: I can see price moving quickly at open to the Bullish RJ entry which is also the top of the current broadening wedge. If price reverses from there I plan to play it down to the 4H 2 down short area. The key here will be to watch volume and price action. Take profits quick and reload on retests. Support and Demand Areas: Red Supply Area overhead between 3281 & 3290 Demand Zone Area between 3251 & 3241
NASDAQ:AMZNLong
by GammaRayGoated
MRNA Mutli-week banger incomingMRNA buyers showed up last week with volume to the upside. There are a few options to play this to the upside or downside. Weekly 2Up: 180.8 2U continuation trigger with PTs to 186.8, 193.2, and 200.08. 4H Upside: This could be setting up for a 2-1-2 continuation to the upside plus the weekly 2U trigger. 4H Downside: I would look for a trigger below 173.83 followed with 2D continuation to take us closer to the weekly retest area at 160. Inverse Head and Shoulder/W/Cup and Handle (4H): A large cup appears to be forming since the beginning of Feb. If we get a pullback to the weekly retest area at 160, I would watch for a bullish reversal pattern and do a multi week swing up to the Jan retest zone around 200 and beyond.
NASDAQ:MRNA
by GammaRayGoated
XOM: Cash Me OussideXOM Weekly Bullish RJ could be a bag and a half. This can be played to the upside or to the downside. If we are playing to the downside we could be making an outside bar by the end of the month to 73.49. **Weekly Bullish RJ Trigger**: 83.45 with targets to 84.92, 86.88, 91.51 Upside catalysts : Daily 2-2 reversal at the Monthly Retest Area; Gap fill to 80.44; Two Down Retest Area at 81.60. I'll keep an eye on for a continuation through the 2D retest area and through the Bullish RJ entry. Downside : Look for a strat reversal pattern after the gap fill or at the 2 down retest area at 81.60. There has been a lot of selling taking place since March and we could be forming one last bear flag (gap fill or at the 2D retest areas) then sell off to make an outside bar for the month. I have been seeing higher than normal volume of selling when compared to the buying volume which could be a catalyst for more downside. I won't believe things until a strat pattern confirms on the weekly or higher timeframe. No trigger, no trade! If we start to see a continued run on tech stocks I could see continued profit taking on this ticker with the cash moving into tech stocks to catch the rally. If tech stocks start to sell off, I could see money moving back into this ticker.
NYSE:XOMShort
by GammaRayGoated
$TSLA bear case: rip then dip to 700TSLA is following this downtrending pitchfork and has picked up buyers at the 1.618/1.65 (golden & orange zones). I am expecting momentum to swing past the median and look for buyers in the outer supply zone at 1000. If the stock is bearish (for whatever reason) then I'll be watching for a pullback to the previous VPVR zone at 916 then bounce up to 983 to see if there are still buyers at the higher prices. I'll be watching Pleides, Noya, and Lyra indicators to see if buyers are stepping up to buy. If buyers aren't showing up to buy the dip then be prepared for a flush to 800, bounce then back down to 707.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by GammaRayGoated
1
$ZM to 257 by May 31st if US10Y cools offUpside Targets: 193.99, 257.52, 291.18 Downside invalidation: weekly close below .854 fib (138.04) Welcome to 2022 and it looks like Zoom could be forming a bottom here on the .854 fib retrace. If it loses this level then it is extremely clapped and I would just bury this into the ground. If the bullish sentiment picks up I can see this going along for the ride for a trip up to $257 by end of May. If the US10Y (white line) cools off I could easily see this stock continue to follow that trend and get some momentum to the upside. The upside risk to reward seems quite good. You can set a stop below the .854 fib and move on if it continues to die. Lyra is currently showing a multi week divergence of money flow going in while price seems to be bottoming out. Volume indicators seem to be showing less and less selling volume over time meaning that we could actually have seller exhaustion. If we start to see increased volume with price going high I will def take this one for a ride up.
NASDAQ:ZMLong
by GammaRayGoated
$CAT downside to 186, 173, 150CAT has slowly been unwinding with lots of volume on every move to the downside while seeing lower relative volume of buyers bidding up the price. I'm looking for CAT to make one more swing up to look for any buyers near 208 and 217 areas. If we get a rush of volume to support the move then we should the continued trend to the upside of the pitchfork. Downside: I've left my fib levels to watch for areas of rejection. I'll also be taking a look at volume and strength of buying vs selling to look for weakness to the downside. Should we lose the pitchfork median we will easily go to 150 by summertime (or even after earnings). There are some headwinds away with the build back better plan possibly being killed, issues with supply and manufacturing in China, etc.
NYSE:CATShort
by GammaRayGoated
$SPY still holding on the trendSPY is still following the trend since the covid lows. This pitchfork captures the median move and last weeks huge buying to selling volume (BS indicator) shows this could be the bottom for the corrective move. I'm planning for two scenarios. 1.) Bullish reversal that will tag the upper pitchfork over near 570 by mid-summer. I'll be watching the volume with the indicators for continued confirmation. 2.) If we get strong selling this week and close beneath the pitchfork trend then we are likely going to establish a new sideways or down trend.
AMEX:SPYLong
by GammaRayGoated
1
$SMH Bear Flag, Dip & RipSMH has sold off through the median of the pitchfork with more volume than the uptrend (Oct 21 to Nov 21). There is a likelyhood that we are doing "as above, so below" pattern where the price rejects the upper channel, supply exhausts, then comes back down to mirror down below to look for demand. As of now SMH is hammering near the outer channel. I'll be looking for a low volume bear flag where bulls try to drive the price up just beyond the gap fill. Shortly after it'll be key to watch the bears step in and drive price down to 252. After a bit of accumulation, should we continue to stay in this trend (since COVID) I can see the price quickly moving back to the median shortly after options expiration in Feb.
NASDAQ:SMH
by GammaRayGoated