NASDAQ & NFP- I expect BullishnessHello fellow traders,
Today is NFP and I expect a bulishness as per my PD Arrays analysis. Lets se if it words out.
I have higlighted all important PD Arrays in my chart, keep an eye.
NQ
NASDAQ-Lets catch 250 Points togetherHello Fellow Traders,
Nasdaq has been wild since a time now. Today, I have spotted a rade to share with my fellow traders.
Yesterday closed with a good bullish candle. As the NY seesion has begun now, I am anticipating price to retrace to the highlighted breaker block that accurately aligns with an IFVG as well.
I am waiting for the price to fall into my area where I will monitor price's reaction, if we see signs of ejection from the highlighted areas, I wuld love to take a Buy Trade.
Entry= If rice enters the Breaker and IFVG and shows a good rejection.
SL= 23340
TP= Today's highs or 23700.
Manage your risk according toyour capital and only enter the trade if we happen to see a good rejection from the area. Be patient and don't hurry.
Why Are Markets Rising Despite the Tariffs?Because of the
1) Set timeline on finalizing the tariff rates and
2) The ongoing negotiations,
They aimed at striking a balanced deal between the U.S. and its trading partners.
The Liberation Day tariffs were announced on 2nd April, and markets initially crashed in response. However, just seven days later, on 9th April, the U.S. postponed the higher tariff increases for most countries by 90 days. Since then, markets have rebounded and even broken above their all-time highs set in December last year.
Now that the dust is settling with the expiration of timeline and ongoing negotiations, the big question is:
Where will the markets head next?
Mirco Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
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Tuesday Long Trade for the NASDAQ 7/29I'm feeling ultra bullish on NQ right now. Ideally, I want to see price carve out an inverse head and shoulders or a double bottom—either could serve as a springboard to new highs. I took two longs this morning and captured solid gains off the weekly opening gap. Would love to see one final wick into that zone before we blast off.
Long Entry:23,476.75
Target: Break of the Highs | Trailing SL
Today's trades:
NQ Weekly Recap & Gameplan – 27.07.2025🧭 Market Sentiment
The overall sentiment remains bullish, supported by:
• Lower inflation data
• Trump’s policy shift toward aggressive rate cuts
This creates a strong risk-on environment across U.S. indices.
🔙 Previous Week Recap
• NQ continued its price discovery phase
• Price swept 4H swing liquidity and triggered a market structure shift
• A new 1H demand zone was formed after MSS
• Price revisited the 1H demand and launched toward new all-time highs (ATH)
• While I anticipated a deeper retracement, ES provided the cleaner pullback
• I executed longs on both ES and NQ using SMT divergence (ICT SMT concept)
📊 Technical Analysis
My bias remains bullish as long as the higher timeframe structure holds.
For the upcoming week:
• Watching for either the 4H or 12H swing high to get swept
• Ideally, a retracement toward the 0.5 Fib level, which aligns with my bullish discount zone
• A clean liquidity sweep into this zone could act as a launchpad for the next leg higher
⚙️ Trade Setup & Execution Plan
Entry Strategy:
• Wait for a new 1H–4H Market Structure Shift
• Identify the new demand zone post-MSS
• Look for price to return to the zone for a long opportunity with LTF confirmation
Trade Management:
🎯 Target: New ATH
⛔ Stoploss: Swing low of the 1H–4H demand zone
📌 Chart will include Fib levels, MSS zones, and execution trigger areas.
Let me know your thoughts or share your plan below.
Happy trading!
Extended rally off April lows should be completing imminentlyEvery so often, a market move defies conventional expectations of retracement—and the rally off the Liberation Day lows is exactly that. It’s extended longer and climbed higher than even the most bullish forecasts imagined in early April. No one remembers the calls for an imminent recession by most large Wall Street firms.
Now, we're pushing into yet another all-time high—despite glaring negative MACD divergence and a financial media landscape that’s nothing short of euphoric.
The narratives being pushed? Honestly, it’s hard to write them with a straight face:
Tariffs are no longer inflationary. Apparently, I wasted time and tuition learning international trade theory and macroeconomics. Who knew deficits and trade imbalances didn’t matter anymore? Who pays tariffs again? ...never mind.
Weak momentum since mid-May signals not exhaustion—but an “unhealthy absence” of institutional selling, which apparently means the retail trader is in full control now. Because that always ends well... right?
July 21 Special Update : Metals, SPY & More. What's Next.This special update is to highlight why I continue to believe traders should stay very cautious of this rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD.
Underlying economic data suggest that this is one big speculative rally following the April Tariff collapse.
And, the economic data I see from my custom indexes suggests the markets are moving into a very volatile and potentially dangerous topping pattern.
As I've stated many times in this video. I'm not saying the markets have topped and you should SELL EVERYTHING. I'm suggesting this market is extremely over-valued in terms of the underlying risk factors at play and the very clear data that suggests the markets are already in a recessionary price trend.
You may ask, "How can the markets continue to rally like this in a moderate recession?".
The answer is simple.
All bubbles end with a super-speculative phase. This phase is where everyone piles into a euphoric attempt to ride the rally higher.
It happened in the late 1990s. It has happened again through the 2000-2005+ housing bubble. Heck, it has occurred in the collectors market over the past few decades where people spent fortunes on the "hottest items" (think Beanie-Babies) only to find out they bought at the height of the bubble.
That is why I continue to urge traders to remain cautious and to withdraw profits from this speculative rally phase. Protect your investment capital immediately and consider the risks associated with the information I share in this video.
I'm not trying to scare anyone. I'm just trying to be realistic in terms of what I see in my data and why I believe now is the best time to MOVE TO SAFETY.
My data suggests that the markets are about to enter a fragile and potentially dangerous pullback phase. If you want to ride it out - go for it.
Otherwise, prepare for significant volatility over the next six months or more.
Get some.
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ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025ES Weekly Outlook & Game Plan
🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment
Market Context:
ES continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength.
We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH).
🎯 Game Plan:
I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment.
Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs.
✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
NQ Weekly Outlook & Game Plan 20/07/2025NQ Weekly Outlook & Game Plan
🧠 Fundamentals & Sentiment
Market Context:
NQ continues its bullish momentum, driven by institutional demand and a supportive U.S. policy environment.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Price is currently in price discovery, and the weekly structure remains strongly bullish — so I prefer to follow the strength.
We might see a minor retracement before pushing further above the all-time high (ATH).
🎯 Game Plan:
I'm expecting a potential retracement to the 0.5 Fibonacci level, which is the discount zone in a bullish environment.
Interestingly, the 4H liquidity zone aligns perfectly with the 0.5 Fib level — this confluence suggests price may gather enough energy from there to make new highs.
✅ Follow for weekly recaps & actionable game plans.
SP500 ES Weekly Recap | ATH Deviation → Pullback or Powell Pump?Overview:
ES made a new all-time high last week, sweeping the previous high with strong momentum.
However, the move ended up being a deviation, and the price quickly reversed — suggesting short-term exhaustion.
Bearish Scenario (Baseline):
🔻 Rejection from ATH
🔻 Possible retracement targets:
12H Swing Low (turquoise line)
Weekly Fair Value Gap (purple zone)
I believe a pullback into those levels could provide bullish continuation setups for new highs. I’ll look for LTF confirmation once price reaches those zones.
Bullish Scenario (Catalyst-Driven):
🚨 If Fed Chair Powell resigns this week (a circulating macro rumor), the market may not wait for retracement.
This could lead to an aggressive breakout, driving ES and risk assets straight into new ATHs again.
Plan:
✅ Watch for LTF confirmation after pullback
✅ Stay open to both scenarios
✅ Focus on HTF bullish structure as long as key levels hold
NQ Weekly Recap-Projection 13.07.2025NQ Weekly Recap + Outlook
1️⃣ Recap:
NQ made a new All-Time High, but the breakout ended up being a deviation. Price got rejected and started pulling back.
This signals potential weakness and suggests price may want to explore lower levels.
2️⃣ Bearish Scenario:
📍Target: Daily Swing low (Blue line)
📍Deeper target: Weekly Fair Value Gap (Purple zone)
I’ll look for LTF confirmations around these zones to position for potential longs.
3️⃣ Bullish Catalyst Watch:
There’s increasing speculation that Powell may resign this week.
If that happens, we could see:
✅ Strong bullish momentum
✅ Little to no retracement
✅ Immediate push into new ATHs
Weekly Plan Summary:
🔸 Scenario 1 - Pullback Continuation:
Look for reactive long setups at Daily Swing or W FFVG zone.
🔸 Scenario 2 - Powell Resignation:
Expect a breakout move with momentum — potentially no retrace.
Stay nimble. Trade what the chart confirms, not what the news promises.
$NQ Supply and Demand Zones 7/15/25This for sharing my S/D zones for SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ specifically.
NAS100 Forecast 24HAs of Tuesday, July 15, 2025, 2:03:11 AM UTC+4 the forecast for US100 (Nasdaq 100) in the next 24 hours presents a mixed outlook, with underlying bullish sentiment but caution due to ongoing market dynamics and potential for short-term pullbacks.
Factors Contributing to a Bullish Bias:
Underlying Strength and Breakout Behavior: Despite some short-term bearish technical signals, the Nasdaq is described as being in "breakout mode," decisively overriding key levels. This suggests underlying bullish momentum.
AI as a Growth Driver: Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a primary growth driver for the US economy and the technology sector, which heavily influences the Nasdaq 100. Confidence in secular tailwinds like cloud computing and semiconductor demand also persists .
Temporary US Dollar Weakness: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a retracement phase, pulling back after strength. A weaker dollar can provide a relief rally for risk assets like the Nasdaq, making US tech stocks more attractive to international investors.
Potential for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: While no rate cuts are expected over the summer, a rate cut is considered likely in September. Historically, phases of moderate interest rate cuts in the absence of a recession have been positive for the US stock market.
"Buy on Dip" Mentality: Some analyses suggest that any short-term declines could be viewed as buying opportunities, indicating an underlying positive sentiment among investors.
Strong Earnings Expectations (for some tech): Despite general market concerns, some technology companies associated with AI innovation are expected to perform well, contributing positively to the index.
Factors Suggesting Caution and Potential for Bearish Movement/Volatility:
Escalating Trade Tensions (Trump's Tariffs): President Trump's continued aggressive protectionist stance and new tariff threats (e.g., against Canada) are a significant risk. These can create uncertainty, weigh on corporate profits, and lead to market volatility. This is frequently cited as the main risk for US indices.
Short-Term Technical Bearishness: Some technical analyses indicate a high chance of bearish candle closures across various timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) , and some traders are eyeing selling opportunities from specific resistance zones (e.g., around 22,800-22,869).
Overvalued Growth Stocks: Following a recent rally, US stocks, particularly growth stocks, are trading at a premium to fair value. This can limit upside potential and make the market more susceptible to corrections if tariff negotiations falter or earnings guidance disappoints.
Market Seasonality: As we move into the latter half of July, market seasonality can shift from bullish to a more bearish stance.
Earnings Season and "Sell on the News" : While major financial institutions are kicking off Q2 earnings season, there's a potential for a "sell on the news" response, even if earnings aren't particularly bad, given the strong rally stocks have already staged.
Mixed Global Signals: European markets showing mixed performance and pressure from US futures suggest cautious global risk sentiment, which could cap upside for the Nasdaq.
Unfilled Stock Imbalances: Some technical analysis points to an unfilled stock imbalance around 22,300, which could act as a reaction point if the price pulls back.
Key Levels to Watch (Approximate):
Support: 22,600, 22,300 (unfilled imbalance), 21,611 (resistance-turned-support), 20,673 (Fibonacci extension and prior high).
Resistance: 22,800, 22,869, 23,000-23,100 (potential re-entry targets for rally continuation), 25,000-25,100 (approximate imbalance level to be filled).
In conclusion, for the next 24 hours, the US100 is likely to face a battle between underlying bullish momentum driven by AI and potential Fed policy, and the immediate headwinds of escalating trade tensions and some short-term technical bearishness. Traders should be prepared for volatility and quick shifts in sentiment based on news flow, particularly regarding trade and upcoming earnings reports.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
A Bearish July for Nasdaq?I hadn’t anticipated the -212 point move unfolding during the After Hours session—I'd mapped that reaction for the upcoming New York AM session open. That said, with momentum already in play, I’m maintaining my short bias. Price appears poised to revisit the July lows, with a high probability of trading through them and pressing further beneath the Monthly VWAP. I’m eyeing continuation to the downside as long as structure confirms the move.
NQ Analysis ICT Liquidity Search Break-Out TradePrice is expected to open not just 1, but inside 2 previous days.
We have 2 options:
1) ICT silver bullet up my bum trader strategy traders are waiting
for liquidity search breaking highs or lows then reversing.
2) Break-out trades waiting for price to break and close above or below
24hour range and trade in direction of break-out.
Are We Completing the Larger Ending Diagonal Now?The last time I updated followers of my work; I stated that the pattern was advancing, but NOT with confidence, and that it is marked with choppy, overlapping price action that appears to be an ending diagonal. Those sentiments have not changed.
However, what has changed is I was forecasting a more pronounced drop first before getting to new highs. It is now possible; this move higher is completing that move on a more immediate basis. Although I cannot rule out the previous larger ABC... it is more likely once this high completes, it could represent the end of the bull market.
Only the structure of the decline will inform us what is playing out.
I will warn followers that once this more immediate high completes, I am expecting a forceful and swift reversal that will undoubtedly catch most traders off guard.
Best to all,
Chris
NASDAQ After the Fireworks: Bearish Setup LoadedAfter the classic 4th of July rally, I stepped in on the short side of Nasdaq, targeting 22,000 and 21,400 zones. The market structure shows exhaustion, and with the cloud retest failing to hold new highs, I positioned accordingly.
Technical:
• Price stalled at prior expansion highs with tight compression near 23,000.
• Daily FibCloud offered resistance confirmation.
• Bearish risk-reward skew forms after extended rally and thin retraces.
• Volume divergence spotted.
Fundamentals:
Multiple overlapping uncertainties:
• Trump confirmed tariffs will take effect on August 1, threatening a 10% surcharge on BRICS-aligned nations.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent anticipates several trade deal announcements within 48h—but stresses quality over quantity.
• Bank of America maintains its base case of 0 rate cuts in 2025, citing strong economic data and sticky inflation risks.
The combination of tariff escalation, hawkish monetary expectations, and global trade friction creates a perfect backdrop for volatility and correction—especially in overextended tech indices like the Nasdaq.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
US100 — New ATH Trading SetupThe price recently previous ATH at the 22730 level. Current ATH is marked near 22,800, with a POC at 22,640.
Potential support around 22,500, below POC.
Watch for a bounce or further rise beyond 22,920.
Buyers probably will push right through 23,000 level today on Micros and Minis.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade End Of Week Update For 7-4Happy 4th of July
I've been very busy with projects and new tools for traders, as well as the new book I'm working on, and thought I would deliver an End Of Week update for everyone.
In this video, I cover the past Cycle Patterns and how they played out for the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin, as well as add some of my own insight related to the market trends.
All of my systems are still LONG and have not changed. I still believe this market is extremely overbought, and I believe it could roll over at any moment into a pullback - but we need to wait to see if/when that may/does happen.
Gold made a big move higher this week, and I believe that move could continue throughout July.
Bitcoin made a surprising Double-Top and is not rolling downward. Could be a breakdown in the markets as BTCUSD tends to lead the QQQ/NQ by about 3-5 days.
The SPY/QQQ rallied like a rocket all week. It was absolutely incredible to see the markets rally like this. But, I'm still cautious of a sudden rollover top.
I managed to catch some nice trades with options spreads this week, and my metals positions were on fire. I'm still trading from a "hedge everything" mode as I don't trust this rally, and I'm still watching for REJECTIONS near these new highs.
Stay safe and GET SOME.
DM me if you have any questions.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-1 : Post Market UpdateToday was a very powerful day for the Cycle Patterns - particularly for Gold and BTCUSD.
Gold rallied as the Cycle Pattern predicted a RALLY in TREND mode.
BTCUSD collapsed on a CRUSH Cycle Pattern.
The SPY Cycle Pattern predicted a Gap Reversal pattern. We did see the Gap today and a moderate reversal in price. But the SPY, as usual, continued to try to melt upward.
I highlighted a very interesting TWINNING pattern in Bitcoin in this video. Pay attention.
Get some.
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NQ NY Session longBy the looks of the London Session for NQ, it seems to be a Manipulation to prepare a reversal Long in the NY Session
US100 - Liquidity sweep above the ATHIntroduction
The US100 has been exhibiting a strong upward trend on the daily timeframe ever since the sharp correction in early April. This sustained bullish momentum culminated in a break above the previous all-time high (ATH) earlier today. However, this breakout may not be entirely convincing just yet, as there are signs of a potential short-term reversal. The move above the ATH could represent a liquidity sweep, where price action briefly pushes past a key level before retracing, possibly trapping late buyers.
Liquidity Sweep
On the daily chart, the US100 did succeed in breaching the previous ATH, but the breakout appears to have been short-lived. Price quickly reversed after the new high was printed, leaving behind only a wick above the ATH. This type of price action forms what is commonly referred to as a swing failure pattern, a scenario where the market tests liquidity above a key level before turning back down. Such a pattern often signals upcoming weakness, especially when the breakout lacks strong follow-through or volume support.
4H Fair Value Gap (FVG)
During the most recent leg up, the US100 left behind an unfilled fair value gap (FVG) on the 4-hour timeframe. This imbalance zone, created when price moves too quickly in one direction without enough time for buyers and sellers to match orders evenly, often acts as a magnet for price to return to. In the context of the current market structure, this 4H FVG could provide a meaningful support level if the index does experience a pullback. Should the index find support here and show signs of renewed buying interest, the broader uptrend is likely to continue. However, if this zone fails to hold, we may see a deeper retracement toward lower support levels.
Conclusion
While the US100 remains in a strong and well-defined uptrend on the higher timeframes, the recent price action above the ATH introduces the possibility of a short-term pullback. The appearance of a swing failure pattern and the presence of an untested 4H FVG suggest that some corrective movement could unfold in the near term. That said, the FVG presents a key area to watch for bullish continuation. If buyers step in at this imbalance zone, the index could resume its upward trajectory, reaffirming the strength of the current trend.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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In the 2030's The Nasdaq 100 to 2X the Dow Jones.#CupandHandle don't fight the trend.
Technology vs Industrials.
AI
Robotics
Space Economy
Biotech
Artificial Super Intelligence to power GDP to insane levels.
