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Nq!

NQ - still (cautiously) bullish despite the volatilityDespite all the uncertainties and volatility in the market, the US indices especially Nasdaq has been resilient. Nasdaq has led the run up since the start of this year and as long as NQ continues to be in the lead among the 3 major indices (namely NQ, SPX an DJI), the market could remain overall bullish. The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900) The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing. Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy). Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade). The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways. p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Juliac
SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars: During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump. The Geopolitical Climate With China The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on. But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls. The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls. The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China. However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government. And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone. The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years. And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table. And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors. A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism." So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose. The call On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year: What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped. Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500. Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up. WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58 Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming. Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500. You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout. But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you. And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is. Be careful, friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion. During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates). Alphabet - full-year 2022 results. Net income = $59.97 billion (vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY) Operating income = $74.84 billion (vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY) Revenue = $282.83 billion (vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY) Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023. Amazon - full-year 2022 results. Net loss = $-2.7 billion (vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY) Operating income = $12.2 billion (vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY) Net sales = $514 billion (vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY) Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates. Apple - 1st quarter FY2023 Net income = $29.98 billion (vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%) Net sales = $117.2 billion (vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY) Operating income = $36.01 billion (vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY) Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tradersweekly
47
My today's view on NQHi Traders, This is my view for today on NQ The main structure on a middle term perspective remains bearish, anyway12460 could be today's target where this strong bullish impulse could ended. I'll personally wait for a retest beside yesterday's POC before opening a Long position. I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit, Trading Kitchen DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by kitchen_trading
Gold GC1 - Discard Greed, Enjoy the Tranquility of RationalityGold is one of those things that has always made humans go mad with greed. There's a deeper reason for this that people can't quite grasp on the surface, but the metal has significant inner meaning for many cultures, families, societies, and belief systems. I've heard over the last few weeks that the Chinese Communist Party has been buying tons and tons of gold, and this news has been used to drive the price back to that $1,923 ATH, which for many years, nobody thought would ever come again, and then happened again after COVID, and then was lost. But you should always remember when a government and a central bank is in trouble, and the CCP is in significant trouble with the damage Wuhan Pneumonia and Xi Jinping's worthless "Zero COVID" social credit persecution of his own people has wrought to the Chinese economy, they tend to buy a lot of gold in an effort to make the situation look "totally great." But gold is hard to trade for critical commodities like oil and food, and USD still reigns supreme, whether you like it or not. Of all regimes, the worthless and wicked CCP is the one you want to trust the least. Really, those rogues are the ones you ought have so little faith in that you totally oppose them and cheer on their annihilation. Never forget these words: 'China' is not 'the CCP'. Moreover, Washington/NATO are also not a big fan of Xi's control of the Party. When a whale takes a big speculative cash position, those who count as "Gods" are given an opportunity to dump it in the other direction, forcing their opponent to sell huge quantities of bullion at a loss. Xi and his beloved CCP barely even count as whales at this point in history. They're about as much of a "whale" as Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX were. Think that one over. Moreover, Jim Cramer said in July of 2022 that gold "is one of three things that 'holds its value in a recession.'" Well, gold followed everything else to dump during 2020 COVID hysteria, and it lost 30% of its value during the '08 Financial Crisis too. Here's the problem with gold making a new all-time high this easily: 1. When gold makes a new $2,100+ ATH, it should really take off for a "commodities supercycle" like wheat, copper, soy, corn did last year. 2. Gold's trading to the $1,630 range was merely a gap fill from the April COVID rebound run 3. $1,630 is still $100 above total long-term range equilibrium 3 (b). This means a new ATH now would indicate a stop raid followed by an eternal dump. Possible, but not very likely at this point in history. What I believe will happen is this: Gold will run $1,940 - $1,960, sweeping breakout traders and goldbugs, and finally get hard rejected Gold will pretty much straight line dumpster fire towards a price that is worse than the $1,569 range equilibrium Nasdaq and tech stocks are going to rally so hard that some items like Tesla, Apple, and probably the index itself, are going to form a Bump and Run Reversal Commodities dump as equities are used to draw in "err'body" because they're the only thing going uppy since oil is dumpin' Gold will start to rally once the stocks that draw in retail dead money are topping and are being distributed Gold, oil, and natural gas will go hard as equities begin to languish and correct $3,100 gold will be the signal that every market has met its fated end In terms of timing, the Bank of Japan does its monetary policy thing on Tuesday, and with how much Yen it has had to print to maintain the (all new) 0.50% cap on 10Y bonds, we can expect they will be forced to relax Yield Curve Control again, probably to 1% Imo, this will cause markets to dump and arguably be choppy, but on the recovery/bull side heading into Feb. 1 FOMC. Markets will feign "indecisive" until Feb. 1 FOMC, which is likely to be a 0.25% FFR hike, triggering a mega rally in equities, a rally which commodities stop tracking. All of the above amounts to an exit rally for Japan's old money, which is a simply fundamental driver in the equities market as one of the most liquid populous seeks yield that its own central bank has refused for years to offer. When the 10Y JGB yield is 1.5% Japanese money will leave US equities and start buying its own bonds. YCC will ultimately be relaxed way beyond 1.5%. Once the markets start to dump is likely to be in the middle of the year when the Federal Reserve finally pivots on interest rates. Contrary to the narrative espoused, major market corrections have often followed a Fed pivot, so long as it occurs when the market isn't embroiled in GFC/COVID chaos. The caveat to all this is that if the Chinese Communist Party were to collapse, because of a combination of Xi Jinping is an idiot and the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic inside China reveals itself to mankind as totally out of control, then everything that has been planned to break both bulls and bears alike will be sharply truncated by a 2,000 point Monday morning SPX gap down. Gold, oil, natural gas, equities, bonds, everything will die like the FTX token did. Nothing will bounce. It's very dangerous. It's very hard to avoid. When people are "bullish on China," what they really mean is that they're bullish on the CCP. This is the hallmark of a total fool. Don't be that imbecile. What a truly wise man does is to make as much cash as possible in lieu of the day that the evil Communist Party and its organ harvesting of Falun Gong and Uyghurs collapses. That is the day you invest in "China" and its 5,000 years of dynasties, its traditional culture, and the Divine path. If you can do that, you'll make Warren Buffett look like a blip on the radar in history. For real.
COMEX:GC1!Short
by LordWrymouth
3
Nasdaq NQ QQQ - Reality Will Be a Tough Pill for PermabearsNo matter how much you read in the establishment media or in the narrative-controlled and socially engineered Twitter and Discord and Reddit forums about "recession" this and "bear market" that, the reality is that while some individual stocks have certainly been a bear market for well over a year, the indexes are not a bear market. I made the call back at the beginning of November that the Nasdaq would head towards 14,000. The results were that it went up to 12,000 and came back near the lows, and three months has passed. Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is Coming Price action is easy, timing is hard. That's the most significant thing I have enlightened to. But here we are in February after a serious rally, and now that the post-FOMC pump has come and gone, the narrative has become "this is the top" and "the crash is coming." However, just look at the weekly and monthly bars. This isn't bear market stuff. Monthly The literal last five months of Nasdaq futures has been a psychological operation against the COVID-June and COVID-October trendlines and the 2022 low of the year. It's incredibly obvious on the weekly candles Weekly The most notable thing is that the end of the year did not breach the October low, and 2023 opened with a big bounce. This tells us both that the low of the year isn't very likely to have transpired yet, and that we're still far away from a LOY unfolding. Moreover, I've seen posts on Twitter that were tracking the SPX and the VIX against the 2008 GFC, 2002, and even the Dot Com bubble, and the January bullish divergence has thrown out all the prior price action to at least the 1970s crashes. It's time for a revolution in our thinking. What people don't understand or want to understand about the fundamentals is that when the fundamentals are bad, price is often bound to do what's contrary to expectations, and go up. So long as the market makers have time to work with, they will raise the prices and raise the prices for the purposes of selling YOU, retail dead money, the stocks they've held for a long time and bought more of at each successive low, at higher and higher prices in anticipation of the real crash. The secondary effect this has is that while you're told by whoever it is that you're consciously or unconsciously taking orders from that the markets are about to crash BECAUSE RECESSION, FED FUNDS RATE, PROFIT/EARNINGS TOO HIGH, you're buying puts while it goes up. They expire worthless, you blow your account, and some Chad at JP Morgan goes for Happy Hour at 1:00 and wakes up under his car after a prostitute stole his Rolex. Modern human life is total garbage. Return to tradition and find art and family again. What's important about where we're at right now is that Nasdaq has finally retraced to its September CPI dump candle pivot, which it failed to breach, and looks to be setting up a double top after Friday's pullback. In my opinion, we're about to get a very nice pullback that will serve as a simultaneous scare to shake out longs, and also a trap for permabears to leverage their entire accounts on puts and 1.5-3x short ETFs. I'm specifically looking for a dump back under 12,000, which I believe is a long for price action that will take out the August highs by the end of March. If you don't believe that Nasdaq can take out the August highs, then let me ask you a question: Why did the Dow, the most bearish of all indexes, take out the August highs in the middle of December? In fact, the Dow as it stands is less than 10% away from setting a new all time high. After what now amounts to 3 months of market action that isn't going lower combined with the Federal Reserve slowing its rate hikes, ask yourself why you think stocks should go down? The truth is that the markets are going to crash. A terrifying market crash unlike the others has been arranged. But why do you think that the indexes either setting new highs, or doing a 76% retracement to the old highs, or setting a double top at the old highs, is out of the question before it unfolds? Nobody has an answer to that, besides that they think it's out of the realm of possibility, for really no reason at all. What you think can happen has nothing to do with what is actually happening, and this is the fatal flaw of an ordinary person, who only believes in what they can see while refusing to believe in what they cannot see. Once the truth stands before your eyes, it's too late to profit. All you can do is feel regret that you missed the opportunity. Not so bad with the stock market, but when it comes to major things in life, there are no mulligans in the Cosmos. Nasdaq to 14,500 by the end of March is my call. Buy the February dip if we get one and take profit over the old highs. Red Communist China is the Blackest Swan As always, you need to be careful in bullish market conditions, because an enormous black swan exists lingering in wait. That black swan is the Wuhan Pneumonia situation in mainland China as Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist Party are on the verge of collapse. The CCP claims that 85,000 people (~54/1 million on a population-adjusted basis) have died from COVID since the pandemic began. This is despite the virus being engineered there, patient zero being in Wuhan, and the country being the most populous in the world. For comparison's sake, the US has a quarter the population, but has lost 1.1 million people (3,000~/1 million) to COVID. Even nearby Japan is posting 600 deaths per million people. Is it really realistic to believe the Party has suffered a factor of 60 fewer losses than a country across the ocean? And this is the same CCP that is a lying, murderous regime who has gone so far as to commit the unprecedented crime of organ harvesting during its persecution of Falun Gong. The same CCP that covered up the 2003 SARS pandemic and made it seem to the outside world that barely anyone died. The same CCP that every single human being who wants a future should be opposing with all of their might. If you don't want a future, why are you trying to make money trading stocks? If you lose your future, can you spend your winnings and have a happy life? It's up to you what you believe. An ordinary human has the flaw where they don't believe anything that isn't in front of their face, which is why they like to fall for the lies of establishment media and social media influencers. The wise ones figure it out before the cards turn face up on the river and the dealer awards the pot, though. The fools get stacked and will lose more than just some casino chips.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by LordWrymouth
12
The Dow - Despite All Your Rage, You Still Just a Bear in a CageThe prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market. But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the trouble is big. Yet, something should trigger your nose when fundamental danger like we have at present has emerged and yet the markets a) don't dump and b) stay high for a long time. Contrary to how things usually are, the Dow is by far the most bullish of the three indexes. I'm calling for a new all time high on the Dow on the next bull impulse. And while you may, perhaps justifiably, guffaw at these moonboy-sounding words, just take a look for yourself: Monthly From a monthly view, based on the February high, the Dow is less than 7 percent away from its bull market highs and a run to 1/2 standard deviation higher is just 12 percent away. And February wasn't the highest month Dow posted since it bounced 23% in a straight line, crushing every other index by a mile during our "bear market." December was higher. Geopolitical Risks As I warn in every post, the situation in China is really a lot more dire than you're being told. The Chinese Communist Party would have the world believe that Wuhan Pneumonia all but totally went away after Xi Jinping finally dropped his "Zero COVID" LARP and stopped welding people in their apartment buildings and making people take daily nucleic acid swabs in the park if they want to have access to public transit go to work the next day under the Party's social credit system. But nothing could be further from the truth. Just go use a data aggregator like Our World in Data and compare cumulative case counts and death counts reported by China and any other major country in the world and ask yourself how the epicenter of the pandemic, the place where Patient Zero emerged, and the world's (formerly) largest country, could have an exponent less worth of COVID problems than even the countries who emulated the Communist Party's Zero COVID social credit system like Australia and New Zealand. My point with the above is to say that the CCP is weak and is about to fall. But at the same time there is a faction of globalists in this world who want to install a one world government. Think about it carefully, everyone: Can you have a "one world government" without the world's largest and most ancient country - China? Thus, if the one world government was to be installed while the CCP was still around, would it work? It would only work if they made the CCP the center of the New World Order. But why would they do that? Don't the globalists want to be the center of the NWO, the Kings of the World, the "New Gods"? Thus, it's a quandary. And so as the CCP falls, it's very likely that the globalist factions will move to install the NWO and every single thing in our life will change. What I want to point out to you all is this: What is the actual problem with Communism? Is it a bunch of glasses wearing atheists with beards running around doing the Marxist cuckold fist and carrying the Flag of Blood while screaming "Viva la Revolution"? The fundamental nature of communism and the ultimate goal of communism is to create a two class system. One class will be the Party, specifically its elites, who rule. They eat the beef and drive the V8 S550s and live in the mansions and have air conditioning and go to the lake and the mountains. The second class will be everyone else, which includes you, who will live in the pod, eat the bugs, live in the open air prison "15-minute cities," take the bus, ride the bike, rent the Nissan Leaf, and experience "beauty" and "nature" only on Zuckerberg's Metaverse. It's as simple as that. You decide what kind of future you want. If you want to live like a human being, then show you're still "humane" and get rid of the Party and all its Marxist Leninist garbage, cultivate virtue, and take care of your family and your country. The Call The weekly bars show you a lot: Namely, we've had three weeks of pinbars. Volatility has contracted and this pattern pretty much always predicates a big move. So, what direction is the big move coming? If the ATH is only 7% away, then it seems to me that's a pretty likely target. But after three weeks of ranging in a 1,000 point range and this being the 15th week of sideways since the huge move, how many institutions and funds have gone long with stops below the most recent pivot? A lot. If you were the market maker, wouldn't it make sense to liquidate them before running 12% higher and setting a new all time high? It would. It certainly would. And the price action is set up just like this. The December low is the most recent weekly pivot and is a meager 1,200 points (4%~) under where we are, during a short week, that ends the month of February. Moreover, there's a big liquidity gap between 30,000 and 32,000 that has never been touched since the post-October monster bounce. The bearish impulse is over, but you're about to get a bear trap. The people who keep listening to Discord signal groups and charlatan furus, the mainstream media, Zerohedge, FinTwitt, all think it's time for us to trade to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES and, like... more or less just because the Federal Reserve isn't done hiking the rates yet. So, look to get long in the 30,000 range on the Dow, with a target over the ATH. 20% on the DIA ETF, which does not have Zero Day to Expiry options and whose options have lower implied volatility than SPY and QQQ, will serve you very well over the next two or three months. Most importantly, don't take my word for anything. Not the call, not China, not anything. What you need to do is just think about it. Calm down. Be cold. Be sober. And really, really think about what's going on in this world, and decide for yourself what to do. Until next time, stay safe. Earth and humans were not created to live as slaves to the Red Cult. They were created by the Divine, and it's as simple as that.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by LordWrymouth
1
Marlo's Going To Hell NQ Swing Strategy I know it's so simple you can't believe it! Is it magic? Is the Devil running the Stock Market!?! Nope, what you're seeing is the all-pervasive 50% Principle in action! www.investopedia.com "It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. " So over any given range, the retrace will test the thirds for support and resistance. NQ counts in the thousands so xx666.00! You'll see similar across smaller TFs and ranges as well using 33.34% and 66.67% retraces.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Nicklaus68
1
SPY Daily Modeling turns BEARISH (RISK-OFF). PAY ATTENTIONMy advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned BEARISH on the SPY. My US real Estate Modeling shows an incredible bout of price weakness, seller desperation, and broad SHOCK taking place for US Real Estate. This combined Real Estate and US stock market shock could lead to an incredible downside price trend if a credit/banking collapse unfolds (much like 2008-09). You have been warned. Follow my research. Move a good chunk of your capital away from risks. This is now a much more violent market event that could unfold in the near future. The Fed MUST address the extended price collapse that is currently gripping the US/Global markets. Things could turn UGLY very quickly if finance/banking/credit seizes up. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
MENT SPY DayTrader Page Update (2-22-23)I've been working on the TT-3MACD PineScript update for about 4+ days. It seems every time I make a breakthrough, there is more to attempt to build into it. PineScipt seems pretty cool so far. Documentation is great - but it is a process of learning how the engine processes things. My goal is to build a TEACHABLE solution for my followers - allowing them to make their own decisions based on my research and other strategies. Ideally - it is about teaching others when and how to trust their own intuitions. This video update shows you the FOUR components of my strategy so far: - The TT-3MACD Strategy (including entries/targets/reversals) - Running on a Heiken-Ashi chart - The Standard Candlestick chart - running the Linear Regression tool - The 3D Wave indicator - The Donchian Ribbon Indicator. Using these in combination with Fibonacci price theory (Higher Highs/Lows in an UPTREND - Lower Highs/Lows in a DOWNTREND) - should be just about everything any SPY Daytrader could want to learn to get started. It really is THIS SIMPLE. The only other thing you need to learn is position sizing techniques. In other words, when to be more aggressive and when to be patient (trading smaller position sizes). Follow my research and let's see if we can get all of my followers into a better place to start profiting from SPY price swings. I will post another update/video when I publish the MENT TT-3MACD strategy for all to use.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
5-3-5 or 3-3-5 corrective? It appears we have a 5-3-5 "zig zag" corrective wave down to the QE-era trendlines .( TLs ) The idea is invalid if it breaks out of the pitchfork trigger line. There are only 3 types of corrective waves, 5-3-5, 3-3-5 & 3-3-3-3-3. Since this correction started with a 5 wave down it should follow the 5-3-5 pattern. However, there's also a decent chance the 3 wave is the first leg of a 3-3-5 "flat" corrective wave. Still a short here for 3 waves down at least. Plotted some scenarios in yellow. 3-3-5 would obey the inside pitchfork more, which will be watched closely near the fibs and bottom. Technical Analysis: We've had 3 weeks of resistance and failed the YTD daily chart bull TL. Volume dropped off sharply near the top indicating reversal. Weekly Stoch is rolling over. Failed the daily linear regression curve shown in orange. Anytime it crosses under the reg curve seems to be a safe short swing for 2+ weeks out. Sometimes it chops sideways for a week or so after first crossing under from a bull run. However, during the bear market it has always continued further down after first break. If it does violate this trend, then it's an indication the bear market really is over. Fundamental analysis: -DXY had a healthy bounce off the 50% retrace and broke the bear trend. It's looking to test 110 next. It's been 5 months of selling, mostly exacerbated by $80T in FX swaps that got trapped and capitulated. That's mostly settled now. -Oil and NG both seem to have made support near trend lows. Oil's 20+yr fork median is around $70 and it's been ranging 70-80. NG is under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and under the years long VAL. Both look like good investments. near the bottom of the current ranges. -Some food commodities are still rising in price YTD, such as: eggs and egg products; coffee ; cocoa , & sugar -Housing prices have dropped over 10% since the Summer and it could snowball into a bigger problem that forces people to finance at higher rates. Mortgage Backed Securities look like they're taking another leg down. Meanwhile personal Savings are near all-time lows and credit card delinquency is nearing ATHs. Along with slowing growth, layoffs and poor guidance; it sure sounds like a recession! -CPI from the previous month was revised up then both CPI and PPI came in hot. Then Bullard mentioned 50bps rates still being on the table, which would indicate a misstep and panic on the Fed's part if that happens. The market currently has the terminal rate of 5.25% priced in, but that obviously isn't happening anymore. I would expect 6% terminal rate if they keep 25bps hikes extended or 7% if they go back to 50bps. As the market slowly realizes the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away, they will panic and finally capitulate. It most likely bottoms around Sept Trip Witch if we get 50bps. Maybe late spring early Summer if just a few 25bps extensions.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Nicklaus68
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week. I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options). Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen. Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher. The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny