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AI boost US mega caps - Nasdaq, Russell 2000 Left in the ColdTech Surge: AI Stocks in the Limelight The performance of US stocks in the AI sector has been nothing short of remarkable, with over $3 trillion added to its market cap since the final quarter of 2022. The upward trend suggests further potential growth despite a broadly stable or mildly declining US stock market outside the US Megatech sector. The enduring climb of these stocks underscores the market's conviction in AI as a lasting, transformative force rather than a transient phenomenon. The US tech landscape had undergone a significant shift from a bleak outlook six to twelve months ago when technology was deemed insignificant, as currently, AI dominates the scene. The Tech Surge vs. Small Businesses: The Gap Widens The current market showcases a divide between big tech and smaller enterprises, with capital flows favoring the former. Coupled with potential deflation, this rift could intensify the struggles of smaller businesses. The thriving AI sector doesn't necessarily imply a positive outlook for smaller companies unrelated to AI in the upcoming 6-12 months. Acknowledging AI's transformative potential across industries like robotics, 3D printing, and crypto is vital. Even though a short-term crisis and job loss are on the horizon, the looming recession could present opportunities for buying cheap assets. In this unique period, reminiscent more of the 1940s and 1990s than the 2000s or the 1970s, a broader perspective, adaptability, and a positive mindset are necessary. Price action: Is the top near? Based on the Nasdaq 100 vs. Russell 2000 ratio, it's doubtful that the top is in. As you can see on the main chart, it's possible that a short-term top could be in, as NDX just filled a gap while sweeping several highs in the 14200-14300 area. However, this isn't the 2000s; this tech is more transformative. The world is ready to adopt it, and that's why ChatGPT was the fastest-adopted technology ever. Now the top 10 us tech companies have the best workforce, hardware, data, and customer base for AI; that's why they are leading the way, and they are unlikely to go down any time soon. That's confirmed by the ratio between NDX and RUT, which seems to have formed a massive cup and handle pattern that's about to break out. Maybe the current rally slows down a bit, but it's not impossible to see it accelerate rather than decelerate. The S&P 500 seems to be at least 1% higher until it hits the next resistance, but my key target has been 4350 for a long time. Once it hits it, a more substantial correction could come, even though I think it would take the SPX to 4000 at best. As for Russell 2000 looks very weak, and I think it will sweep its double bottom and fill the critical gap lower. Sentiment remains bearish For many months, on Tradingview and Twitter, I've been talking about how bearish people are, how inflation is coming down, liquidity is trending higher, and so on... yet nobody wants to hear about it. Everyone wants to talk about the ongoing or upcoming recession, and they consider AI a fad. Even after this move higher, sentiment hasn't changed, and it's getting more bearish, with people trying to short the rally, as they are angry for missing the boat. We can see that in CoT data, we can see on Twitter polls, and I can see it based on what people say on social media. Potential strategies In my opinion, it is either best to ride the trend with a small position and a wide-stop loss or wait for the market to hit key resistance, and either potentially short there if sentiment flips bullish or wait for the pullback and then go long. Although the long Nasdaq short Russell trade could have some juice left in the short term (very bullish long term), I wouldn't rush to put that trade on, as the Russell could play catch up (in the short term), as we see traders/investors diversify as they take profits from their tech stocks. These stocks are cheap and seem more 'hated' than those US mega caps. Higher interest rates and shrinking liquidity significantly affect small caps, and their situation could deteriorate. It's clear we are either in a recession or about to enter one, and these stocks have the most to lose. Therefore, once these stocks rally, especially if they outperform NDX, consider entering a long Nasdaq - short Russell trade. This trade might not work only if many large countries start banning those companies and their products or if the US starts attacking them for being too large. Until then, the ratio has higher to go.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by BitcoinMacro
Weekly Update: Has the Nasdaq Topped?The Nasdaq market has been the most impulsive looking of the indices. Having stretched slightly above the .786% retracement off the move down from November 2021 highs to the October 2022 lows, price looks to challenge the overall bearish structure. Unlike the other indices, the Nasdaq shows a clear impulsive structure. However, the problem with this idea of the NQ reaching all time highs is much the same story in all the other indices. The manner in which price started this rally off the October lows. In my opinion, it continues to tell the tale of this type of price action. One would expect a move to new highs starting off with an impulsive 5-wave structure. In the NQ, the only potential bullish structure off the lows is a leading diagonal. Although it is a motive wave and a push to new highs starting off with a diagonal is valid, diagonals tend to be highly unreliable structures. Therefore, I have to maintain that this move higher is still a B-wave counter trend rally that reconciles eventually in the 7000-9000 sometime next year. Although it is possible to retrace some and make one more high as displayed in my purple labeling, I now have a full count to the upside. Therefore, I will maintain this purple alternative count as long as price is above 14250. Below 14250, and my expectation is to ultimately resolve this larger bearish structure at far lower levels.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by maikisch
ES/NQ Weekly Analisys Weekly Analysis June 20 - June 23, 2023 During the previous week, NQ entered the zone of the daily Order Block (OB) and came close to testing the Mean threshold of that OB. It also entered the Monthly BB-. Therefore, this week, I anticipate a retracement to the 4-hour OB level between 15188.00 and 15094. For an ideal scenario, I would like to see a bounce from the range of 15186.75 to 15142.50, targeting the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB at 15534.00. It's also worth monitoring the Critical Level of the Monthly Break Block at 15722.75, although it may not be reached this week. To recap the structure: Consolidation, followed by Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. Hence, my retracement level before the Order Block is set at 15186.75. Inside that zone, there are 15-minute BB+, as well as 15-minute FVG and 1-hour FVG. If the retracement fails to hold at the OB level, we should anticipate a reversal phase where it breaks 15066 and drops further, ideally reaching the Daily SIBI level between 14963 and 14866.75. The same analysis applies to ES: ES also entered the zone of the Daily OB (4615.00-4486.25), which aligns with the Monthly BB-. Remembering the structure: Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Retracement before the Order Block and resumption of movement. Alternatively, it could be Consolidation, Expansion, and then a Reversal. For ES, my retracement level is set at 4431.75 to 4423.25. The 4-hour OB is located at 4419 to 4404.50, with 15-minute FVG and BB+ within this range as well. If the 4-hour OB fails to hold, we can expect a Reversal Phase, leading to a test of the SSL at 4393.75. The Daily SIBI is found at 4381.75 to 4369.50. However, a bounce from the Retracement Area should fill the Weekly SIBI at 4506.25. Additionally, there is a Daily Breakaway Gap to consider. Key levels to watch are 4524.00 and 4531.25, which correspond to the Mean Threshold of the Daily OB.
CME_MINI:NQU2023
by LumiTraders
Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning SignalFrankly speaking, the pattern that would make the most sense for the markets with the situation in the world at present is that the ATH on Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX are taken before the end of '23. However, there are a number of problems that indicate despite the extreme greed, bear capitulation, and bull euphoria this may not happen. One of the biggest fundamental factors is comments made by Jerome Powell at the last FOMC press conference, where for the first time in 15 months, a pause on rate hikes was induced. The small one is Powell made sure everybody understood that the pause was for June and June alone and not to be misconstrued as a policy change. The big one is that Powell plainly stated in answers to reporters that rates will not be cut until inflation comes down significantly, and that he expects this to take years. What this really means is that in order to have inflation really come back down, you need '08 GFC/'20 COVID demand destruction to unfold, but arguably on a bigger and more dramatic scale. What can cause a bigger and more dramatic worldwide calamity? There are only a few things, and none of them are pretty. Will they happen before election year? During election year? On top of this, with the Treasury General Account refill being the catalyst that finally impacts the reverse repo facility, liquidity is coming out of the markets, not going in. So the fundamentals of the markets and economy are actually worse now at 15,500 in many ways than they were at 10,000. But fundamentals never matter in the linear way people expect, and that's why you get 50% rallies on tech when tech as a sector is primarily worthless. So here's the technical breakdown of the NQ. On weekly and monthly bars, Nasdaq has gone up in a straight line since '23 opened. The low of the year was set in the first week of January. This is generally bullish and means we can expect new highs. However, all of these fundamental turns in the feng shui of the economic mood have occurred right as the Nasdaq was pushed back to the distribution block that formed the '21 top. This area also happens to be the 79% Fibonacci retracement level, and the entire bull run has been composed of a parabolic trend angle of better than 70 percent. Price now trades far away from every trendline there is. In fact, the delta between the '22 LOY and the trendline composed of the '18 volmageddon and '20 COVID lows is a staggering 13 percent. From where we are now it's 6,000 points. It's too parabolic, and it's happening inside of a fundamental tightening cycle, when China's economy and society is in huge trouble, and also a time when oil and natural gas look as if they're about to go town. This area between where we are now and the '22 top is an area of huge resistance. The intention, or "the plan," if you will, may very well be to send it back to the trendline with new highs being incurred only on the back of a Donald Trump 2024 Presidency. Trump winning '24 won't be quite the "W" for rightists and conservatives and the religious that they think it will be. In fact, Trump is an ass and may usher in an era of globalism, so make sure you vote for Ron DeSantis or RFK. If you ask me, the biggest fundamental tell in this is the USD. The tells are subtle, but February was a gap rebalance, and April was a higher low that also formed a double bottom. All on its own, I generally feel that's bearish. But May formed a higher low, and all while equities were mooning. And on top of that, the DXY stopped during the height of the '22 collapse, at under the 115 psychological level. Nasdaq never swept the 9,xxx level. Moreover, VIX and VIX futures are printing 13 and 14 handles, figures usually reserved for the most bullish of economic conditions. Not economic conditions where the indexes are still trading at lower highs and almost all of the core equities are still trading at just a blip. Bears have been calling for a crash for months. But how many are not only about to miss the opportunity after getting hurt, but start actually buying the dip? If Nasdaq can't make a new high and run away by July, then 9,500 is coming and it's going to come fast. You better believe it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
5
Weekly Update: Are we in a new bull market?If you’ll remember in October of 2022 when the SPX had declined 27% since the January all-time highs. It seemed the sentiment and market news were uber bearish with back drop of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by an unprecedented .75 points at its FOMC meetings at the time . Around the December lows, we began discussing in my trading room what the sentiment of traders and the financial news media would have to be once we finally arrived in the gray target box for this corrective rally I thought would persist till summer time. I was clear, that for this forecasted subsequent c-wave down (Red Arrow on Right side of Chart), that sentiment would have to be uber bullish in our B-wave target box. What would transpire afterwards would be a decline of 30% to 40%, so a decline of this magnitude would have to catch traders off guard. Some sort of event driven catalyst. Now, many months later, to listen to CNBC, it appears we’re now in a new bull market. As an Elliottition, this type of sentiment was expected. Even required, as to what comes next. If my analysis is correct, we are soon about to embark on a c-wave decline that would eventually breach the October lows. Additionally, if I am correct, once this c-wave does conclude (around 3,000 -2700 ES), it will take at least couple years or more for price to return to the area of where we are today. So, while everyone is uber bullish, the main data point to consider is price pattern and the MACD indicator. For this entire pattern to be impulsive and give us a chance to get to new highs this would mean we’re now in a wave 3 of an impulsive trend. Wave 3’s are the strongest portion of a 5-wave impulsive trend pattern and they never take place on negative divergence . Wave 3’s persist until negative divergence is broken. If we’re to break the stark negative divergences that have held since the October bottoms (see indictor portion of the chart above) price has little room for any sustained consolidations or declines. No forecast is guaranteed. When forecasting price patterns and trader behavior, support and resistance still apply. SO, to be fair, NO KEY LEVELS OF SUPPORT HAVE BEEN BREACHED that would give us any indication we've topped, or at minimum, the rally is cracking. However, as of now, the MACD indicator is telling us that with each advance of price, we're achieving that on less and less strength. Maybe that changes soon, anything is possible...but in the absence of that, new all-time highs are simply wishful thinking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points: 1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019. 2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market." == A Caveat: The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet. What's really going on is extremely dangerous. There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP. By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments. The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night. If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once. It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York. == I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range. The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity. The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind. Monthly Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher. So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion: Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024? Two things to consider: 1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23. (This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse) 2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election So where we're at right now is make or break: Weekly For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later. Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace. If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024. However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead. It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum. What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy. If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup. The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area. But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later. Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality. But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets. It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
3
Weekly Update: Has the Stock Market Topped?Anyone who answers yes or no definitively to that question is really just guessing. As a practitioner of Elliott Wave I can answer that question in two-parts. 1) There is not enough price action to make such a determination In my trading room we discuss the key levels that need to be breached to even start to consider the upside pattern is cracking. To date, we're far away from those levels. Nothing provides confirmation, like confirmation. Now granted Elliottitions will have many clues along the way with the price action pattern being the most important, but until we breach 3502 in the SPX Futures, this pattern off the October lows could sub-divide into an even more complex structure, denying both bulls and bears a break out or break down. In the micro pattern, there's also nothing conclusive pointing to the downside. 2) Retracement Levels Yesterday's trading day saw price in the futures get to 4305.75. In my analysis I have the .618% retracement level of the pattern from the January 2022 all time highs to the October 2022 lows at 4309.50. Since we did not tag that level, and currently have no compelling downside set up in place, I have to assume we will eventually tag it. Is it required? No. However, to discount 4309.50 is to not know the significance of the .618%. I will not get into the importance that retracement and extension level represents except to say, we came within a hair of it yesterday. When price patterns are retracing in counter trends or advancing in trends, the .618% and it's derivatives, the 1.618% and the 2.618% (mainly in commodities) are of major significance to an Elliotition and the wave count. Therefore I'll conclude by stating as to where price is today, and the proximity to the .618%, I would answer the question of "Has the stock market topped" by simply saying either it did yesterday, or it's top is imminent. Anyone who says different, is truly guessing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned. With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above. Here's where things get tricky. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below. I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway. My Expectation: Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels. However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action. So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher. Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts. Just like trading...reading is hard. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
ES (SPX500) Short-Term Bullish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SmartMoneySource
NASDAQ: Crossed over the August 2022 High but overbought.Nasdaq hit and crossed today over R1 (13,730) which was the High of August 16th 2022, the last major Resistance standing. It did so however on an overbought 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 70.248, MACD = 173.650, ADX = 31.828), which is a bell to start booking profits, especially since the price is approaching the top (HH trendline) of the Rising Wedge, the pattern that guides the trend since November. More specifically, every time the 1D RSI hit the 70.000 overbought level in the past 12 months, Nasdaq declined. There is a HL trendline that supports the RSI though, so you can prepare your buy accordingly. We will take advantage of the next pullback and target the 1.236 Fibonacci extention (TP = 14,500). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100
by InvestingScope
15
Market Reversal Fueled by Biden's Positive Remarks on US - NQM In today's trading scenario, we witnessed a fascinating turn of events. The market initially opened with a downward wick, touching the previous day's closing level and the London session's support. However, the tide swiftly turned, largely attributed to President Biden expressing positive sentiments about the avoidance of the US debt ceiling. This optimism sparked a notable shift in market sentiment. The levels I outlined at the open were as follows: Downside: 13505, 13483, 13460, 13430 Upside: 13540, 13575, 13600, potentially reaching as high as 13660. These levels served as significant benchmarks for today's trading. The upside, though, ventures into somewhat uncharted territory as we have not tested these areas since the highs of August 2022. As we tread these waters, it's crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable to the market's responses to macroeconomic news and global sentiment. Stay tuned as we continue to track the market's reaction to these crucial levels, and navigate our trading strategies accordingly.
CME_MINI:NQM2023Long
by Pablo_The_Latin_Trader