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The Dow - Despite All Your Rage, You Still Just a Bear in a CageThe prevailing narrative in these markets is still that you're in a bear market. Some stocks are in a bear market, specifically the tech junk that retail likes to lose money on, but the indexes are not in a bear market and have not been in a bear market. But it's not that the fundamentals behind the world economy are not bearish. Trouble is brewing, and the trouble is big. Yet, something should trigger your nose when fundamental danger like we have at present has emerged and yet the markets a) don't dump and b) stay high for a long time. Contrary to how things usually are, the Dow is by far the most bullish of the three indexes. I'm calling for a new all time high on the Dow on the next bull impulse. And while you may, perhaps justifiably, guffaw at these moonboy-sounding words, just take a look for yourself: Monthly From a monthly view, based on the February high, the Dow is less than 7 percent away from its bull market highs and a run to 1/2 standard deviation higher is just 12 percent away. And February wasn't the highest month Dow posted since it bounced 23% in a straight line, crushing every other index by a mile during our "bear market." December was higher. Geopolitical Risks As I warn in every post, the situation in China is really a lot more dire than you're being told. The Chinese Communist Party would have the world believe that Wuhan Pneumonia all but totally went away after Xi Jinping finally dropped his "Zero COVID" LARP and stopped welding people in their apartment buildings and making people take daily nucleic acid swabs in the park if they want to have access to public transit go to work the next day under the Party's social credit system. But nothing could be further from the truth. Just go use a data aggregator like Our World in Data and compare cumulative case counts and death counts reported by China and any other major country in the world and ask yourself how the epicenter of the pandemic, the place where Patient Zero emerged, and the world's (formerly) largest country, could have an exponent less worth of COVID problems than even the countries who emulated the Communist Party's Zero COVID social credit system like Australia and New Zealand. My point with the above is to say that the CCP is weak and is about to fall. But at the same time there is a faction of globalists in this world who want to install a one world government. Think about it carefully, everyone: Can you have a "one world government" without the world's largest and most ancient country - China? Thus, if the one world government was to be installed while the CCP was still around, would it work? It would only work if they made the CCP the center of the New World Order. But why would they do that? Don't the globalists want to be the center of the NWO, the Kings of the World, the "New Gods"? Thus, it's a quandary. And so as the CCP falls, it's very likely that the globalist factions will move to install the NWO and every single thing in our life will change. What I want to point out to you all is this: What is the actual problem with Communism? Is it a bunch of glasses wearing atheists with beards running around doing the Marxist cuckold fist and carrying the Flag of Blood while screaming "Viva la Revolution"? The fundamental nature of communism and the ultimate goal of communism is to create a two class system. One class will be the Party, specifically its elites, who rule. They eat the beef and drive the V8 S550s and live in the mansions and have air conditioning and go to the lake and the mountains. The second class will be everyone else, which includes you, who will live in the pod, eat the bugs, live in the open air prison "15-minute cities," take the bus, ride the bike, rent the Nissan Leaf, and experience "beauty" and "nature" only on Zuckerberg's Metaverse. It's as simple as that. You decide what kind of future you want. If you want to live like a human being, then show you're still "humane" and get rid of the Party and all its Marxist Leninist garbage, cultivate virtue, and take care of your family and your country. The Call The weekly bars show you a lot: Namely, we've had three weeks of pinbars. Volatility has contracted and this pattern pretty much always predicates a big move. So, what direction is the big move coming? If the ATH is only 7% away, then it seems to me that's a pretty likely target. But after three weeks of ranging in a 1,000 point range and this being the 15th week of sideways since the huge move, how many institutions and funds have gone long with stops below the most recent pivot? A lot. If you were the market maker, wouldn't it make sense to liquidate them before running 12% higher and setting a new all time high? It would. It certainly would. And the price action is set up just like this. The December low is the most recent weekly pivot and is a meager 1,200 points (4%~) under where we are, during a short week, that ends the month of February. Moreover, there's a big liquidity gap between 30,000 and 32,000 that has never been touched since the post-October monster bounce. The bearish impulse is over, but you're about to get a bear trap. The people who keep listening to Discord signal groups and charlatan furus, the mainstream media, Zerohedge, FinTwitt, all think it's time for us to trade to zero because FEDERAL RESERVE RATE HIKES and, like... more or less just because the Federal Reserve isn't done hiking the rates yet. So, look to get long in the 30,000 range on the Dow, with a target over the ATH. 20% on the DIA ETF, which does not have Zero Day to Expiry options and whose options have lower implied volatility than SPY and QQQ, will serve you very well over the next two or three months. Most importantly, don't take my word for anything. Not the call, not China, not anything. What you need to do is just think about it. Calm down. Be cold. Be sober. And really, really think about what's going on in this world, and decide for yourself what to do. Until next time, stay safe. Earth and humans were not created to live as slaves to the Red Cult. They were created by the Divine, and it's as simple as that.
CBOT_MINI:MYM1!Long
by LordWrymouth
1
Marlo's Going To Hell NQ Swing Strategy I know it's so simple you can't believe it! Is it magic? Is the Devil running the Stock Market!?! Nope, what you're seeing is the all-pervasive 50% Principle in action! www.investopedia.com "It states that if an asset drops after a price increase, it will lose between 50% and 67% of recent price gains before rebounding. " So over any given range, the retrace will test the thirds for support and resistance. NQ counts in the thousands so xx666.00! You'll see similar across smaller TFs and ranges as well using 33.34% and 66.67% retraces.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Nicklaus68
1
SPY Daily Modeling turns BEARISH (RISK-OFF). PAY ATTENTIONMy advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned BEARISH on the SPY. My US real Estate Modeling shows an incredible bout of price weakness, seller desperation, and broad SHOCK taking place for US Real Estate. This combined Real Estate and US stock market shock could lead to an incredible downside price trend if a credit/banking collapse unfolds (much like 2008-09). You have been warned. Follow my research. Move a good chunk of your capital away from risks. This is now a much more violent market event that could unfold in the near future. The Fed MUST address the extended price collapse that is currently gripping the US/Global markets. Things could turn UGLY very quickly if finance/banking/credit seizes up. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
MENT SPY DayTrader Page Update (2-22-23)I've been working on the TT-3MACD PineScript update for about 4+ days. It seems every time I make a breakthrough, there is more to attempt to build into it. PineScipt seems pretty cool so far. Documentation is great - but it is a process of learning how the engine processes things. My goal is to build a TEACHABLE solution for my followers - allowing them to make their own decisions based on my research and other strategies. Ideally - it is about teaching others when and how to trust their own intuitions. This video update shows you the FOUR components of my strategy so far: - The TT-3MACD Strategy (including entries/targets/reversals) - Running on a Heiken-Ashi chart - The Standard Candlestick chart - running the Linear Regression tool - The 3D Wave indicator - The Donchian Ribbon Indicator. Using these in combination with Fibonacci price theory (Higher Highs/Lows in an UPTREND - Lower Highs/Lows in a DOWNTREND) - should be just about everything any SPY Daytrader could want to learn to get started. It really is THIS SIMPLE. The only other thing you need to learn is position sizing techniques. In other words, when to be more aggressive and when to be patient (trading smaller position sizes). Follow my research and let's see if we can get all of my followers into a better place to start profiting from SPY price swings. I will post another update/video when I publish the MENT TT-3MACD strategy for all to use.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
5-3-5 or 3-3-5 corrective? It appears we have a 5-3-5 "zig zag" corrective wave down to the QE-era trendlines .( TLs ) The idea is invalid if it breaks out of the pitchfork trigger line. There are only 3 types of corrective waves, 5-3-5, 3-3-5 & 3-3-3-3-3. Since this correction started with a 5 wave down it should follow the 5-3-5 pattern. However, there's also a decent chance the 3 wave is the first leg of a 3-3-5 "flat" corrective wave. Still a short here for 3 waves down at least. Plotted some scenarios in yellow. 3-3-5 would obey the inside pitchfork more, which will be watched closely near the fibs and bottom. Technical Analysis: We've had 3 weeks of resistance and failed the YTD daily chart bull TL. Volume dropped off sharply near the top indicating reversal. Weekly Stoch is rolling over. Failed the daily linear regression curve shown in orange. Anytime it crosses under the reg curve seems to be a safe short swing for 2+ weeks out. Sometimes it chops sideways for a week or so after first crossing under from a bull run. However, during the bear market it has always continued further down after first break. If it does violate this trend, then it's an indication the bear market really is over. Fundamental analysis: -DXY had a healthy bounce off the 50% retrace and broke the bear trend. It's looking to test 110 next. It's been 5 months of selling, mostly exacerbated by $80T in FX swaps that got trapped and capitulated. That's mostly settled now. -Oil and NG both seem to have made support near trend lows. Oil's 20+yr fork median is around $70 and it's been ranging 70-80. NG is under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and under the years long VAL. Both look like good investments. near the bottom of the current ranges. -Some food commodities are still rising in price YTD, such as: eggs and egg products; coffee ; cocoa , & sugar -Housing prices have dropped over 10% since the Summer and it could snowball into a bigger problem that forces people to finance at higher rates. Mortgage Backed Securities look like they're taking another leg down. Meanwhile personal Savings are near all-time lows and credit card delinquency is nearing ATHs. Along with slowing growth, layoffs and poor guidance; it sure sounds like a recession! -CPI from the previous month was revised up then both CPI and PPI came in hot. Then Bullard mentioned 50bps rates still being on the table, which would indicate a misstep and panic on the Fed's part if that happens. The market currently has the terminal rate of 5.25% priced in, but that obviously isn't happening anymore. I would expect 6% terminal rate if they keep 25bps hikes extended or 7% if they go back to 50bps. As the market slowly realizes the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away, they will panic and finally capitulate. It most likely bottoms around Sept Trip Witch if we get 50bps. Maybe late spring early Summer if just a few 25bps extensions.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Nicklaus68
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week. I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options). Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen. Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher. The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4