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Nq!

US Stocks are about to EXPLODE higher. Here we goThe reflation trade in the US stock market (Wave-5) is about to explode above the GREEN resistance line. Far too many people continue to believe the US markets will collapse on some Fed/Economic crisis event. What they don't understand is the US is in a different position right now. Yes, deflation trends may continue for REAL ASSETS (homes, cars, commodities, others), but as long as the US economy continues to tick along (employment, wages, consumers), billions of dollars every month flow into IRAs, 401Ks, and other investment assets. This is what I call the "economic bias" related to money flow and US dollar depreciation. Over time, the natural process of the US/global economy is to GROW - not CONTRACT. Therefore, we need to be prepared for a reflation trade (similar to 2003-05 when the US markets move upward after the 9/11 event). Follow my research.
FX:SPX500Long
by BradMatheny
ES support @ 4018 now becomes critical trigger levelThis big rotation to the upside, after the CPI number, presents a new $4018 support level on the ES for traders. The Fed rate decision tomorrow may send markets briefly below this level, but watch for a reflation trade to setup after the Fed comments. If my research is correct, a melt-up trend has already been established. I expect the US Dollar to melt back above 105 while Gold and Silver continue to melt upward as well. The US markets may continue this upward trend into Q1:2023. Follow my research.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
A new high in QQQ, no new high in NQ1!, and skepticismYesterday, prices rose across the board, with Nasdaq 100 index rising almost 5%. This move came amid a dovish interpretation of Jerome Powell’s speech by the market. As a result, the abrupt price action invalidated our assumptions about the potential top of the bear market rally. Illustration 1.01 The daily chart of QQQ is displayed above. The yellow arrow indicates the invalidation of our early assumptions about the potential top for the bear market rally. However, Nasdaq 100 continuous futures (NQ1!) failed to break above the immediate support/resistance and did not constitute a new high. That makes us skeptical about the new high in QQQ. Therefore, to entirely invalidate our earlier assumptions, we would like to see invalidation also in NQ1!. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow shows no invalidation in NQ1!. At the moment, we will wait and see. If NQ1! breaks to the upside and holds above the immediate support/resistance, it will bolster the case for rally continuation. As a result, it will force us to abandon our price target of 270$. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tradersweekly
19
QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.44%, down from 3.62% from last week according to DVOL data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 79th percentile, while according to VXN, we are on 40th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 3.35% movement Bearish: 3.11% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 20.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 292.43 BOT: 272 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 35% probability we are going to touch previous high 291.6 67% probability we are going to touch previous low 278.75 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NASDAQ:QQQ
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns For Dec 12, 2022 - More sideways melt-up.Here are the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week. Expect more sideways melt-up trending as we head into the Fed rate decision and key economic data. Traders will start to shift into early 2023 expectations this week (after the Fed). Check out my other posts. The markets are not expecting anything extraordinary right now - more of the same. The Fed rate decision will likely come in between 50pb and 75pb (as expected). All of this has been BAKED INTO the markets already. I can tell you what I'm seeing out here in So. Cal... Shoppers EVERYWHERE. Traffic is a mess. Lots of our of state cars everywhere. Malls and shopping centers seem packed. From what I can see, Q4:2022 will probably stay very solid for retail and online shopping. Unless there is some catalyst to BREAK the markets, US stocks should slide into 2023 with fairly strong expectations. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
NQ needs one more push to finish the right shoulderCheck the vol of today's move, its nothing! Typical Fri low vol grind If the price stays elevated, we should grind up into Mon am. But I will not be long if it will be a wall move into the close (last 10-15 min big up candle). I have a turning day on the 12th, will it be a strong move down or a gap and crap, I dont know, but we are getting close! I have a short set at 847 and 87NQ Have a great weekend, Im on the road most of the day today, will be less updates till the weekend.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
NQ made a double bottom when ES did make a new lowsIn my eyes NQ and RTY are stronger then ES at this moment, which is kinda strange to me as it was the leading for the whole move down since ATH. Support held today (tomorrow's support box). Ichimoku cloud (not shown here) is in a thin area, so it has a weak support and can break below the lows to finally catch up with the ES. There is similar bull trendline as in the ES chart I just posted, Im expecting it to hold to go long. Ideally we get t test it tomorrow or Wednesday am. If we do gap down tomorrow to test that trendline I will be buying longs and hold into Wed high. Gaping down tomorrow will kill short the open idea and I will be looking for a low to buy instead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
DXY will find support above 103.70As the global economy continues to recoil after the US Fed rate increase - watch for the USD/DXY to find support above 103.70 and flag sideways/higher over the next 15+ weeks. I suspect any continued Fed rate increases will put further pressure on global markets/currencies and drive foreign investment in USD assets throughout 2023. Yes, the US economy is contracting - which is exactly what the Fed wants (breaking inflationary trends). But, that does not mean the US economy is CRASHING. What is happening is the strength of the US economy/USD is creating a capital-shift we've not seen since the early 2011~2013 bottom. Foreign investors are rushing away from risk - towards safety, security, & ROI. That means they are seeking the safest, strongest economy on the planet, with the best chance of ROI. I believe that is the US economy (the strongest on the planet) which is currently ON SALE at a 40% to 70% discount. Pay attention.
TVC:DXYLong
by BradMatheny
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.72%, down from 3.95% last week according to VXN data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 74th percentile, while according to VXN, we are on 41th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 3.4% movement Bearish: 3.5% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 12475 BOT: 11525 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 78% probability we are going to touch previous high of 12145 26% probability we are going to touch previous low of 11480 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 13% BEARISH trend Daily timeframe indicates 40% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 93.3% bullish trend
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns for Dec 5 thru 9 - A Flat Sideways Melt-upI love the fact that traders are messaging me asking questions regarding my SPY Cycle Patterns. Thank you. I hope all of you are starting to see some value from my research and using it to profit from some of these moves higher. Right now, and probably until next week (Dec 12 of later), the markets will probably slide into a fairly volatile sideways melt-up phase. I'm expecting a 4 to 6%+ volatility range over the next 7+ trading days before some catalyst sends the markets higher. I've listed all the SPY Cycle Patterns for December below. I've highlighted the key days (**) that I believe will create a bias trend in December. The other patterns may still represent upward trending and volatility. 12/1/2022 Flat-Down 12/2/2022 Harami-Inside 12/3/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 12/4/2022 GAP22 Potential ** 12/5/2022 12/6/2022 Top 12/7/2022 Flat-Down 12/8/2022 Break-Away 12/9/2022 Carryover 12/10/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/11/2022 Top/Resistance21 12/12/2022 Consol-210 12/13/2022 Tmp-Btm-102 ** 12/14/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/15/2022 Breakdown201 12/16/2022 Break-Away ** 12/17/2022 Carryover 12/18/2022 Inside-Breakaway 12/19/2022 POP ** 12/20/2022 12/21/2022 Top/Resistance 12/22/2022 Flat-Down 12/23/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/24/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/25/2022 Rotation 12/26/2022 GAP-Reversal 12/27/2022 Breakdown201 12/28/2022 MntmRally-012 ** 12/29/2022 GapUp-Lower 12/30/2022 Top 12/31/2022 Flat-Down
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny