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Nq!

NQ/MNQ Futures Reaction AreasOn this chart are the reaction areas for the NQ, MNQ, NDX at least for the first part of the week. I wanted to release this before the Sunday open because it might help for the overnight session. All levels or areas have short descriptions. I published this on a 30m chart (structure) because it really provides a good mix between my standard intraday (5m) timeframe and the 60m golden timeframe. What is clear here is the zone between 12,000 - 12,9000 doesn't provide many high-probability reaction areas. As usual, the focus for the week should be momentum and how well that is being held up, especially given the close on Friday. It was clear the market wanted to recapture the weekly open and it did just that. Any downward move has to find support at some key reaction zone; otherwise, sentiment will shift against a continued upside move. 11,100 or so, really that key battle zone. If the price gets here and how it reacts will be key. Watching how the 60m momentum and bias hold LONG will be key going into the first few days of this trading week. As far as known news events, Thursday is the big day. So as the week develops, plotting where Thursday wants to test and close will be key. I'll update this idea as we go along this week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RexDogActual
Aspects to Retail to Market Maker Trading Alignment Inventory management for market makers is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot. Market makers need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market. When a market maker holds a large position in a security or derivative, it must be able to convert that position into cash quickly and at a stable price in order to meet its obligations. This is particularly important in situations where the market maker needs to meet margin requirements or respond to unexpected market movements. As a result, market makers typically use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations. This includes monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative. In summary, market makers' inventory management is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot, they need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market. Market makers use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative. .... and Im bullish until the Market suggest otherwise. For Friday At least.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SolidWetFX
2
SPY Swing Long on ReversalSPY dropped to a mid Fib level from the recent pivot high and bounced. Price is now rising in a channel predictive for a 1% rise tomorrow. The ADX indicator shows the negative direction reversed and now positive and rising out of the chop zone confirms the reversal as a solid one not a fake out as does the MACD with a crossover under the histogram I will trade this with strike 392 calls for expiration this Friday expectant for 25+% return in two days
AMEX:SPYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
ES Looking For Support Near 3920 - Then LIFTOFFPay attention. Today will likely be a large range bar - possibly with a deep low near 3920. My SPY cycle patterns call today a "Major CRUSH". That means we could see a very large price range today. Combined with other SPY Cycle patterns, I believe the ES will attempt to establish a base/bottom - retesting recent lows. As we move into 2023, be aware that cycle trends have shifted. We are entering a Wave-5 bullish price trend. This Wave-5 trend may not result in new all-time highs this year, but we should see a solid recovery/reversion back to the upside. There are still risks related to the global banking/credit system, so stay cautious of crisis events. Follow my research. Pay attention to the clear market data - not the perma-bears that continue to tell you a "major crash" is about to happen. After today, we move into more bullish consolidation as Earnings start to hit.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY Fibonacci & TA. Bullish Target Above $410.For everyone interested: Expect volatility to be king over the next few weeks (earnings and economic data). SPY reaching a major APEX in price trend. It is very likely to resolve to the upside, but that means we have to be prepared for "false breakouts". Fibonacci price trends suggest current trend is BULLISH (closing GAPS). The upper GAP may be the next target on a strong rally phase. Don't play around with this trend. If you are SHORT - PROTECT YOUR CAPITAL. Economic data continues to suggest the US markets will resolve to the upside if inflation trends continue to weaken. Follow my research & videos. I've been trying to warn you about the start of a Wave-5 rally for more than 5+ months.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
NQ going into the CPI releaseHere is a quick update for those who follow my work and are not on our new site yet. It's a critical turning point here, going into the CPI report, so I want to share my thinking, and hopefully, you won't get trapped regardless of tomorrow's am outcome. I'm doing a more detailed analysis, but I will post a short version here. First of all, I pointed out last week that the 11th should mark the important high. Well, we got it! Now, it doesn't have to be a daily high, but the daily closing high! So tomorrow can be an intra-day high with am spike. I still think we could get a sort of OCT 13th CPI release action, but in another way - Gap and Dump! If CPI will come in-line or a bit higher, let's say 6.6-6.7%, it can produce a knee-jerk reaction and sell from there. There is a good fib confluence at 11600NQ for that move. Our main target got hit today, and I warned yesterday, that it should see a higher number; it did! The price has closed right at the resistance, so it satisfied the whole move up right there, in case it is just going to dump from the open Support and resistances are on the chart. I will also be doing SPX update and will post it at the end of the week here. This chart should be enough for those looking for a good analysis out there without any commitment. So don't be surprised if you see a big spike up, DO NOT chase it! If it happens, I will use that opportunity to add to my short position
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by RealTima
8
Will Powell's speech spark another rally or spook the market?In our previous post on the Nasdaq index, we stated that the bullish breakout above the descending channel would bolster the bullish odds in the short term. Furthermore, we said that in such a scenario, we would closely observe volume and the ability of SMAs to halt the price rise. Interestingly, after the breakout, NQ1! jumped approximately 3.8% and stopped slightly below the 50-day SMA before returning below the 20-day SMA (falling within the scope of natural retracements after the price deviates too far from a moving average). At the same time, the volume picked up, reflecting an increase in selling pressure. Despite this bullish development, we remain bearish on the index, which follows what we stated before about the breakout not impacting the primary bearish trend. Therefore, today, we will pay close attention to Jerome Powell’s speech. We expect him to reiterate that the FED will stay committed to hiking rates throughout 2023 and achieving its goals over time. Depending on Jerome Powell’s tone, market participants might find signs of a pivot in his words, potentially sparking more upside in the short term. Contrarily, an overly hawkish tone might spook the market into selling. Therefore, we raise a word of caution over a potential increase in volatility. Expected dates of upcoming earnings for FAANG stocks in 2023: Netflix - January 17th Alphabet - January 31st Meta Platforms - February 1st Apple - February 2nd Amazon - February 2nd Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Slightly bullish Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates the retracement to 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA. To support a bearish case, we want to see the price stay below the 50-day SMA. Additionally, (ideally) we want to see a further increase in volume accompanying a price decline, followed by the breakout's invalidation. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Tradersweekly
32
NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 3.83% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 81th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 3.24% movement Bearish: 3.3% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 11574 BOT: 10680 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 36.46% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high 66.3% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -26.67% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
The bear market has not endedLast year, NQ1! dropped approximately 34%, entering a bear market territory. In 2023, we hardly expect any significant improvement in the stock market due to the persistence of bearish fundamental factors, including high inflation, the prospect of more interest rate hikes, and a global slowdown. We expect these factors to stay in place throughout the year and weigh heavily on the index. Furthermore, we expect them to lead the U.S. economy deeper into a recession. With that said, we anticipate the bear market to progress from the second stage into the third stage in 2023. We will seek confirmation of our assessment in the upcoming earnings season and look for corporate underperformance and outlook downgrades. Additionally, we will look for a jump in corporate bankruptcies and a pick-up in unemployment. In accordance with our outlook, we maintain a bearish stance on the index and keep our price target of $10 000 for NQ1 (although we think the index has a high chance of going far below that). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and the declining channel we showed a few months ago. Currently, NQ1! trades near its upper bound. If it manages to break above it, it will bolster the bullish case in the short term. However, a failure to do so will be bearish and hint at exhaustion. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Neutral Weekly time frame = Neutral Illustration 1.02 The image above shows the daily chart of NQ1! and simple support/resistance levels. In addition to that, two moving averages are present, acting as additional resistance levels; in case of an upward correction, we will pay close attention to these SMAs and their ability to halt the price rise. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
113
Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 Nasdaq January Monthly Volatility Analyis 2023 Currently the IV for Nasdaq is at 7.66%, down from 7.8% last month. From the volatility current percentile we are located on 93th place, and based on this we can expect the monthly candle to make the next aprox movement: Bullish : 6.55% Bearish : 8.58% With this in mind we have currently 80.2% that the market is going to stay within the next channel TOP Limit: 11987 BOT Limit: 10250 If we are going to take a look into the previous monthly high and low points, currently there is a : 37.5% to hit the previous monthly high 64.4% to hit the previous monthly low Lastly from the technical analysis point of view, currently ( going from -100 to +100) Weekly Timeframe : -66.67% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH Monthly Timeframe : -40% of rating moving averages is indicating BEARISH
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
2