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Nq!

NQ riding the trendline, it will loose it at some pointThat trendline (black) is what Im watching for the NQ to get a confirmation of a breakdown, without it it can extend higher. Needs to break the line, close 1h under 11735 and re-test the broken trendline to confirm the top. As stated before, Im going to reduce my protective longs by 50%, if we gap up tomorrow, already started here. BTW one important thing is that NDX topped at the crossing of some very important trendlines, it was a trendline confluence today:)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) May End 3 Swing Rally SoonShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave A ended at 11734 and pullback in wave B ended at 10636. Wave C higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the Index turns lower again. Up from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 11231.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 10808. Index then rallies again in wave ((iii)) towards 11876.75. Wave ((iv)) is now in progress to correct cycle from 11.10.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Internal subdivision of wave ((iv)) takes the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 11702 and rally in wave (b) ended at 11898.50. Expect wave (c) to end soon which also completes wave ((iv)). Afterwards, as far as pivot at 10636.55 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher 1 more leg. Potential target is a 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 10.13.2022 low which comes at 11870 – 12632 area.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Nasdaq 100 - Will the FED kill the rally?With the barrage of disappointing earnings and the FED rate hike scheduled for today, we have very little to be optimistic about for the rest of 2022. Our reasoning is based on the persistence of high inflation and interest rates poised to stay here for much longer than many analysts initially expected. Therefore, we believe it is a matter of time until something breaks in the market and the price reverses its direction to the downside. Indeed, with the FED tightening the economy later today, we speculate that this event might lurk just behind a corner. However, it would not surprise us to see one more push higher due to extremely bullish sentiment among retail investors dominated by fear of missing out on “good” deals in the market. With regard to this possibility, we remain bearish on the index and committed to our price targets for QQQ at 270 USD and 260 USD (11 000 USD and 10 000 USD for NQ1!). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the setup for QQQ on the daily chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD is flattening. Stochastic and RSI are neutral. DM+ and DM- Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but losing momentum. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 At market lows, we stated that relief was set to follow until the FED meeting, with the VIX index dropping shortly before the decision. Now, we expect volatility to start rising soon unless a positive reaction to the rate hike occurs. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
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NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
54
Nasdaq 100 - Something feels terribly wrongOver the past few weeks, there were quite a lot of things happening - “the market bottom,” “crypto bottom,” “trend reversal,” and so on and on. Again, people rush to make hastily conclusions as the market turns from extremely bearish to fearful of missing out on the real primary trend reversal. Before the CPI, we came forward when QQQ stopped its decline 0.11$ above our price target of 260$ and said we would abstain from setting a price target and wait for the data to come out. Yesterday's price action is exactly why we did that. The market participants' desire to see the market go higher after a horrible year of underperformance pumped up the Nasdaq 100 index by 7% before the market closed. However, the reality is that inflation continues rising, despite a small surprise in regard to analysts' expectations yesterday. Indeed, in our opinion, it makes no change for the FED, which will continue to tighten the economy further; merely, it will give it more room not to crash the economy right away. This development comes as a temporary lifeline to the market, which is still seeing the unwinding of the FTX insolvency issues. The stock market and cryptocurrencies continue to see gains across the board today. Despite that, we can not unnotice that something is still terribly wrong; this applies to both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. First, yesterday's move continues to be characteristic of the one in the bear market. For example, in the 2020 crash, there were at least three days with a daily range of more than 10% (for NQ1); examples are shown in Illustration 1.02. Second, volume declined dramatically toward the end of yesterday's session. In addition to that, the peg between the USD and Tether continues to be destabilized, despite retracing much of the move. This development worries us as it might foreshadow another “unexpected” event in the cryptocurrency market, which will also inadvertently affect the stock market. Therefore, we voice a word of caution as we are not yet convinced this is the market capitulation everyone has been waiting for. With that being said, we maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows examples of down and up days during the 2020 crash before the FED cut rates to stop the drop. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all turned bullish with the market bounce. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, the trend is weak. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the declining volume prior to yesterday's close, which shows signs of exhaustion. We will pay close attention to whether it will be sufficient in the coming hours/days to sustain the rally. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic point to the upside. MACD tries to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows a setup for NQ1!; if the price will manage to hold above the level, then it will be bullish for NQ1!. Illustration 1.04 The above is a link to the article about Tether, which we published during the Luna crash. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
28
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 4.28%, down from 4.41% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 75th from ATR and 67th from VXN index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 3.41% for bullish 3.7% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 76.4% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 12311 BOT: 11270 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 79% to hit the previous weekly high of 11900 26% to hit the previous weekly low of 10750
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns For Nov 14~20, 2022 - Rally Week ContinuesThe incredible rally last week as traders flooded into US & Foreign market assets. The US Dollar rolled downward. Cryptos blew up and continued to tank. Traders are assuming inflation data will continue to trend downward and are viewing many foreign assets as "undervalued". You have to attempt to understand the psychology of the markets/humans and the seasonal cycles at play. On top of all of that, we have to consider the fact that the US economy is still much stronger than almost all other foreign economies right now. As I keep saying, this is a Foreign Market Crisis (credit/debt related to the 2008-09 GFC crisis) and the low-interest US Fed Policy. Easy money policies created a massive speculative bubble phase throughout much of the rest of the world. The global economy was rolling. Real Estate prices rose - causing a perceived wealth growth that was heavily leveraged. This creates a massive deflationary/revaluation process to unwind in the near future. We have not seen the end of the unwinding, but we have seen the foreign markets move far enough downward to attempt to begin to form a base. The US markets, with the current CPI data showing weakening inflation and US Real Estate data showing a strong collapse in demand/sales, will likely attempt to MELT UPWARD over the next 90+ days. But I still want to warn everyone we do NOT have any confirmed uptrend using my MRM Rotational Modeling system Bullish Trend Trigger on the Daily chart. This means, no matter how much we want to chase this rally phase, we should only be deploying a very small amount of capital into any trading activity. RISKS are still very high right now. If the MRM system changes to bullish on the Daily chart, then I will address allocation levels and the potential volatility risks. 11-13: Bottom 11-14: N/A 11-15: N/A 11-16: InsideBreakaway 11-17: BreakAway 11-18: WeekendGap/Flat 11-19: Gap Up-Higher 11-20: Consolidation 11-21: CRUSH Looks like we are going to have a fairly good week with higher trending.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
NQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it shouldNQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it should see lower lows imo Simple distribution and premium kill all day. All the money seems are made during the open, now algo game I would not do options, unless in and out as those loose value quick VIX closed its gap and still in consolidation mode. Ideally we bottom in Nov and see a good rally into Jan high. NQ should see around 8.5k imo, waiting for the capitulation move For now range trade, in and out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
17
SPY RALLY WEEK - Are you ready for it?I continue to post these SPY Cycle Patterns as a way to help educate and explore my research/results. The interesting part of this research is these patterns originate at an anchor point nearly 5 years ago and continue to produce valuable predictive results for each week going forward - all the way out to 2028 and beyond. Why are they so important? Because they can help you understand how cycles, price patterns, and psychology play a role in future price activity. Of course, they are not 100% accurate as news items, the US Fed, and other (govt) actions may disrupt the cycle pattern trends. Ultimately, these are some of the best predictive solutions I've seen related to preparing for future trends/expectations in a long while. Elliot wave is a great tool, but it adapts to future price movement. Therefore, what you see and believe is going to happen right now may not be valid in 2 to 5 days. Fibonacci is probably the most valuable solution for attempting to develop any type of predictive modeling - besides my Cycle Patterns. Well, this is all just conjecture related to what I believe. Here we go - RALLY WEEK. Let's see what happens. Most of November 2022 is looking quite bullish. So we may see a fairly strong start to a Christmas Rally setting up this week. 11-6: CRUSH - I expect this pattern to push into Monday, driving a fairly strong upward trend. 11-7: Flat-Down - this pattern may transition into early Tuesday, but quickly move towards the BreakAway trend. 11-8: BreakAway - This pattern should carry through most of Tuesday/Wednesday. 11-9: Rally - Off we go. 11-10: Rally - Continued rally (short squeeze) 11-11: Rally - possibly a stalling rally phase headed into the weekend. 11-12: Carryover - the weekend will setup as a pause, rotation, bottom for early next week. 11-13: Bottom Follow my research..
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Weekend Update: SPX Futures AnalysisENDING DIAGONAL BLACK EWT COUNT My primary analysis is the SPX Futures have been mired in an overlapping decline that will conclude on an Ending Diagonal provided we head to new lows soon without breaching the 3928 level first. I will admit my primary analysis has come perilously close to invalidation (as is the nature of Diagonals). Additionally, my black ED path could have academic similarities with an overall ABC to conclude what I'm classifying as a cycle wave IV in a SC wave III. Allow me to make the case for my primary analysis first, then I'll discuss the alternatives. The area where we get a major clue in the ES is a breach of 3590 which is displayed by the thick black line in the above chart. However, as you can see from the below Nasdaq Futures chart, that area has already been breached. The retracement has breached the .786% Fibonacci support area and looks poised to make a new low. I do not analyze the NQ chart but in as much as the index looks similar to the ES structurally, it appears to be further along towards bottoming. The obvious question “Is NQ leading the ES...or vice versa”? Nonetheless, it is a clue we should take note of. Also, the heavily weighted stock of Microsoft at 5% of the SP500 index has already breached its low and is almost complete from a pattern standpoint. This is the same structure I am looking for in the SPX/ES to turn from bearish to bullish. The chart of Apple has yet to strike that new low and is the largest component of the index. SO this bolsters my primary analytical point of view that regardless of what happens in near term, the SPX/ES is not complete in making its bottom despite what the financial news media may or may not report. The below chart is the difference between the life of the Black count and Purple becoming my primary...and it boils down to a breach of 3928. Above 3928 and the ending diagonal count will be taken off the chart. As of today, the SPX/ES has the opportunity to bottom quickly without interjecting more uncertainty. Whether it will do so or not remain to be seen. Nonetheless, it is my primary thesis that the index will head to new local lows and bottom this month. CORRECTIVE RETRACEMENT PURPLE EWT COUNT Below is the purple pathway and my secondary analysis of the path the ES Futures will take. If a breach of the 3928 level is to happen, this is the path price should take . I prefer a quick bottom as outlined in the black count but the purple count manages to do something I am in favor of when discussing stock market bottoms. It features a capitulation ending, only after getting its participants thoroughly confused. This is a slightly lower probability to the black count in my mind, but in truth statistically equal. RED COUNT IMPULSIVE MOVE HIGHER, BULLS RUN WILD TO 5200-5500 The red count is my second alternative and structurally is valid but contains too many unknowns and therefore at this juncture maintains a shaky analytical foundation. First, it features a leading diagonal to start off the next bull run. Diagonals are declines or advances in which the trader sentiment is so UNDECIDED it makes for a choppy pattern that just frustrates participants. Diagonals are not reliable trading patterns and therefore it's hard for me to get behind this next bull run based on such feeble sentiment. Nonetheless, the red count is a 100% viable option within the rules of Elliott Wave and therefore I am including it. The main difference between the red and purple count is where as the purple count concludes in the area of 1.0% to 1.236% Extension area, the red count surpasses that area in just the iii of 3-wave. The red count is an impulsive 5 wave structure that would complete as high as 4500-4600. As an analyst all I can do is wait for the individual components of my analysis to eliminate themselves to finally arrive at a tradeable thesis. AS OF THIS AFTERNOON I HAVE NO REASON TO ABANDON THE BLACK ENDING DIAGONAL PATTERN FOR FINAL COMPLETION. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
8
NQ as long its below 10990-11000 its bearishI missed am rally, exited one long from yesterday at the open and didnt re buy again, was too slow Now I have added back to my swing short here (some was sold at my 645 and 685 levels I posted yesterday) Watch that bold support line, its a very important place for the price! Congrats to those who took a long this am! I was saying about this rally yesterday it came super fast. Its Fri, do not over trade! Have stops if you are in green, it can turn against you at any time!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
1
Simple RSI/FIB Price System - BITCOIN BULLISHI've taught this system to hundreds of people over the past few years. It is a simple HIGHER HIGH/LOWER LOW system based on RSI 60/40. It is great for making decisions about longer-term trending and you can apply short-term technical analysis tools to 4 hour or other intervals to catch shorter-term trends. BITCOIN is BULLISH using this system. In fact, I would not be surprised to see $29k to $32k before the end of 2022. The BASE/BOTTOM appears to be already in place and now we are simply waiting for some of that Christmas Rally momentum to push BITCOIN higher. Follow my research and learn how I can help you stay ahead of the biggest market trends.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny