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Nq!

SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events: 1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs. 2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell. 3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31 and VIX Curve inversion. Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of which there are 3 events: 1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and intends to remain vigilant. 2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate. 3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important timeframe for the FED. ______________________________________________________________________ Nature abhors a Vacuum. As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s. Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made higher velocity movements recently. The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the prior 2 most recent curve inversions. The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week and next. Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine. That will not happen today IMHO. Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase. This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter and far more volatile than prior cycles. ______________________________________________________________________ Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows. It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again. ______________________________________________________________________ Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability of profit. The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement. Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance. The key to success is to close the position within a few days. I am taking ATH only. ______________________________________________________________________ Trade Safe & Good Luck.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
12
NQ to make another daily engulfing pattern if we make below 790The price rejected the test of the broken trendline - perfect kiss of the death pattern. My thoughts about a fakeout were too optimistic, I was looking to add to my NQ short at higher levels and it didnt present an opportunity. Main target for this move is 11175-85 and possibly much lower. Try not to day trade this, unless you're quick with taking profits and run NQ same as the SPX, looking for a good size rally after the FOMC and fade completely by Friday Going to short a bounce, if presented P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
9
SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
NQ Zoomed out chartCheck the broken to the downside trend channel re-test NQ is having now. So far its riding it from the bottom. I wont count out a fakeout move up to 12150-60 or even 12240-50 and then going back below the bottom of the trend channel. Support is at 11900 for tomorrow long try. If we see that level during the open time, I will be taking long for a 100+ points ride up. The most bullish case is - re visit 12700 level. But the time is really running out and unless we get a huge squeeze tomorrow, I think the upside will be very limited and the price will eventually get to my main target - 11175-200 and maybe much lower. Oct should mark the low and Im wondering if we even see 9-10k zone tested. So far Im planning on adding to my swing short tomorrow and just seat on it till after the FOMC decision move. Im running some ES longs against my main NQ short, ready to cut at 3919ES level. This is my working chart and I have hided as many indicators as possible, so you all can see the chart more clear then it is:) P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
Nasdaq Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022Nasdaq Volatility Forecast 19-24 Sep 2022 The current implied volatility is +-489$ from the current opening of the weekly candle, 11920$ With this in mind, we have a 80% chance that the market is going to stay within the range: TOP: 12400 BOT: 11430 At the same time, we can see that the average weekly candle, is around 2.4 - 2.68% From the technical analysis POV, we can see that our asset is above EMA 50/100 and above EMA 200. From the volume POV, we can see that currently CMF level is on the positive side, indicading a stronger buyer positions. Since we open below 12k, I believe there is a much higher chance this week that the market will continue the downfall movement, towards 11500$, where is actually the resistence point from the EMA 200. After that it can go both ways, depending if its going to close above/below it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by exlux
Total Contrarian Trade/SetupAs much as I believe in "Don't Fight The Fed", I'm starting to think the bottom for the US markets (Technology/SPY/QQQ) may be much closer than some people think. My cycle research suggests a 2022.5 cycle pattern (late in the second half of 2022) is highly likely. Have we seen that yet? Maybe. Maybe it is the recent bottom in June 2022 and the change of direction (higher) after that bottom. Here are some of the KEY CYCLE PATTERNS that catch my attention. 9-27~10-8 : Harami, CRUSH, Gap, Top, Consolidation, Temp Bottom, Gap Reversal, Breakdown, Breakaway, Rally, Carryover, Bottom 10-11~10-25: Inside/Breakaway, Harami, CRUSH, GAP, Gap Reversal, Breakdown, Breakaway, Carryover, Temp Bottom, Top/Resistance, Consolidation, CRUSH, GAP, BIG GAP These patterns, and the fact that I'm seeing some strength in the consumer sector, align with a potential Elliot Wave setup that suggests we may see some extreme volatility as we shift into a moderate Christmas Rally Phase. It all depends on HOW DEEP (if anything) we see the markets move after the Fed rate decision. If the markets fall back into bullish trending and attempt to move away from lower support levels, then there is a very solid chance we may see an extended Bullish price trend starting a new Christmas Rally phase - possibly lasting into Q1:2023. The CRUSH patterns are the only thing that concerns me. These are typically very aggressive downward price moves - but can sometimes represent pullbacks in an uptrend. I've seen them happen in very strong uptrends and I'm thinking capital may be shifting away from the same risks that were in the markets in late 2021. We've seen technology and other sectors fall 45% to 76% in some cases. The contrarian trade (bullish if support holds) may be a very low risk trade right now.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by BradMatheny
NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 19 Week NAS100 USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2022 SEP 19 Week Hope you had benefited from the long trap alert from last week for a fruitful short opportunity. Temporary support at the 11772 - 11917 zone. Possible scenarios: 1) Short if 12234-12080 is resisted 1 extension) Longer term Short Target = 11068-10360 2) Temporary Long on support of 11772 // 11916 Weekly = Higher vol (ave) wide spread down bar close off low = Demand coming in Daily = Ave vol down bar close toward high = minor strength H3: H3 tells a clearer story - temporary support observed Price reaction levels: Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept 13587 13200 12735 12234 12080 11772 - 11917 11348 Remember to Like and Follow if you find this useful. Have a profitable trading week ahead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by paradox677
2
S&P500, ES, NQ, QQQ, SPX, SPY Nasdaq about to go up for big falli dont know how SEO for tradingview works... I posted about the buying before the friday close when nq had dropped to 11800 and everyone was extremely bearish... i posted this idea which you can see here but its not ranking; hence I am posting this again we have broken below sept 7 low.... the sentiment is extremely bearish but the evil plan is to take the price up and squeeze every short before dumping... already the friday ended up in green daily pin bar and we look good to go
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by EIP-EverythingIsPlanned
2
Capitulation IndicatorThe 30:10 Treasury Bond Yield Spread is a simple Ratio difference between the 30-Year Treasury Bond Rate and the 10-YearTreasury Bond Rate. A Large exodus from high Beta/Rho correlated Assets to perceived Safe Havens. Presently the best-performing and most stable Asset of 2022 has been Cash - The US Dollar Index was 94.63 in mid-January to a high of 110.78 - a return of 17.066%. Both the 30:10 Ratio and DXY performance are indicating an extreme lack of confidence in the strength of the Economy. Quite recently Cross Flows among Capital Stocks - largest Inflows this week are 2-year Treasury Bills @ 288%. The flow was Net Cash to the Curve by Institutional Investors. Concerns are rising with respect to both the return of Capital as well as the return on Captial. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ $3.196 Trillion across - Stock Index Futures, Stock Index Options, Stock Options, & Single Stock Futures. P/C remains elevated @ .72 with .76 being the Pivot. The LIS for 4X Expiry is SPX 3900, we will need to see Open Interest activity as the Day progresses. It will either be supported for the Close or it will not as the next support is the Lows in June. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ It is important to observe the steep decline in Open Interest. The largest SPY Roll was into the OCT Expiry @ 372 Puts. SPX shows a parallel Roll. Please watch the Globex Lows - the NQ and ES can trade lower, it will be important for the NYSE Open. I focused initially on CASH for TECH - QQQ's 285 had the largest Roll period. In addition, all Strikes with a few exceptions up to 310 had retail rolling from 287. At the moment the O/I is churned for tomorrow, with both ROLL and SWAP to Retail, BUT Retail was a net BUYER of Calls. 383 is the Primary Support now that we crushed the trend lines, the Fibs line up there for the SPY. The ONLY issue I see is the Algos took the ES Futures up and over its Pivot trendline at the Close by a very small amount. Whether or not we open Up and then backtest or fall away will depend on several indications from the VIX VVIX $ 2YY... Volumes will be enormous. I'm looking over correlations and ratios and then swinging back around to Futures Options. This is what sticks out at present, the concern, of course, is Retail Longs who thought yesterday was a great day to enter Calls. What stands out is the size of Roll skipping the weekly expirations for both the SPY, SPX & QQQs. Intra-Week Roll is almost non-existent. _____________________________________________________________________________________________ **** This week matches a record from 1930 -the lowest raw number of Stocks Up as a percentage. I warned of the 4X Expiry being a large Risk, for revview -
TVC:US30Y
by HK_L61
2
For All Of You Following My Cycle Patterns - Here's Next Week.As you know, I have these setup 4+ years out into the future and continue to identify new RARE and UNIQUE patterns as time allows. I'm even up to 5~6 bar setups in some of them. Yet, next week shows a very interesting set of Cycle Patterns... 9-19: Inside/BreakAway 9-20: BreakAway 9-21: Carryover (Possible Reversion) 9-22: Inside/BreakAway 9-23: Momentum Rally *9-24: RARE - Major Reversal *9-25: N/A 9-26: Breakdown201 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH (*Bearish) * = weekend I'm reading this as a very important and volatile week will follow the Fed rate decision. The US/Global markets may move into FULL CAPITULATION after the Fed next week. But, The RARE - Major Reversal pattern and the Momentum Rally pattern suggest the end of the week may see some type of "reversion" of the previous downward trend. The following week (early) - we move towards a CRUSH pattern (9-28). Those tend to be very strongly BEARISH. Stay protected. Follow my research and learn how I can help you navigate these incredible price swings. We may see a little support in the markets tomorrow, but it looks like traders are already anticipating a 75pb rate increase and selling ahead of the Fed decision.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Today is a N/A Day (No cycle pattern) - what to expect...Today will likely be a carryover of yesterday, setting up tomorrow's TOP pattern. Because of this, I expect a bit of a rally phase today (rebounding off the lower support channel) and possibly attempting to move above 395 if there is substantial buying activity. Yes, the Fed decision is near, but traders are still using the US equities market as a hedge against foreign market risks because of the stronger US Dollar. Gold and Silver will likely setup another retest of recent support. The markets are shifting and we could see a big move next week with the Fed decision. Right now, I see the markets struggling to find support and attempting to hold above the Flag/Pennant lower channel. Crude oil is lower - suggesting the global economic demand for oil is weakening. Stay cautious. Follow my research. These cycle patterns are really incredible in how they predict days/weeks in advance.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
7
Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally Day. Ready for it?My cycle patterns suggest today is a Reversion/Reversal/Rally day. I know it may seem strange to think that the US market may rally today after the CPI/PPI inflation data and the pending Fed rate increase - but it is what the cycle patterns say it is. Remember, these patterns originate from a date 3+ years ago and just tell me what to expect from price on certain days. I read them like words making up a sentence. Multiple bullish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bullish price trend. Multiple bearish cycle patterns suggest a broadly bearish price trend. Today is a Reversal/Reversion/Rally day. If we see a big rally in the SPY today - I will be content that my cycle patterns are really nailing these daily market cycles/setups. I mean - where else can you know what is likely to happen weeks or months in advance of price actually DOING IT? Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
Tesla TSLA - The Canary in the Coal MineI don't normally pay much attention to Tesla, but when I was eating cake and looking at charts today, I noticed something significant about this stock, and that's on the monthly: Specifically, despite all these months of severe market correction, Tesla has never broken a monthly pivot on the way down from the top. So much so that neither did the June market-wide bottom make a new low for TSLA, which turned May into a pivot. This means TSLA has maintained its bullish market structure compared to its peers, and should be able to swing upwards and set new highs. And yet on shorter time frames, even as large as the weekly, Tesla is simply heavy. On the daily, TSLA looks about as weak as the indexes. Not convinced? Well, compare this against McDonald's , of all things, which actually trades like a monster: Now ask yourself what Big Tech's stuff is really worth in reality compared to its hype train. Did Elon dump all those shares just so he could deal with the problem he created for himself trying to buy Twitter? Key price action in Tesla tells you some really significant things: 1. Tesla is supposed to be in a bullish market structure, heading for new highs on the monthly. 2. Heavy on all other time frames 3. Hourly, it double topped and died at $314 with a May pivot above at only $318 during the climax of our recent bear market rally. 4. The split did nothing to stimulate its vitality. And this is one of the top five highest volume stocks that trade each day and a key component of indexes. This makes Tesla a literal canary in the coalmine for the rest of the market. All of this combined can only show that new lows will be sought, and likely aggressively, which makes TSLA one of the fattest short opportunities around. Keep in mind this is not the same Tesla that everyone was shorting in 2017, where Elon would go and buy 10% of the float one night and liquidate everyone while laughing about it on Twitter. Tesla has become like a large, well developed cow sitting at the feed lot, waiting for whales to feast. Personally, I think we're about to see some significant price action this week that will hurt both bulls and bears: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws And I think during this action, even if the indexes print some pretty fat blue candles, TSLA somehow, will still be heavy enough that it can't take out $318, which means your primetime entry is in the $300 - $310 range. Give yourself a 3 to 6 month window where you can handle some bounce and won't get liquidated, and being short on TSLA should really turn out very nicely. You shouldn't have faith in electric vehicles. They're heavy, don't last very long, are neither cheap nor easy to charge, put significant strain on the power grid, and require tons of environmentally-damaging-to-mine rare Earth substances that aren't abundant enough to supply demand. This technological path cannot sustain itself. Mankind simply relies on burning oil and natural gas to produce electricity. Without electricity, modern society is finished. Don't believe it? Try making it through one day of winter in a city without your furnace! Just look at how many people died during that winter storm in Texas when the grid went offline. Mankind will have to find or rediscover a more traditional energy source if it wants to be sustainable for the thousands of years to come, and those discoveries will not come through this current batch of technology.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LordWrymouth
4
CPI Data collapses US markets - Watch For Rally/Reversion higherCycle patterns indicated a GAP/TOP for Monday/Tuesday. Then, they indicate a potential reversion/rally for Tuesday/Wednesday. After watching the deep selling related to the CPI numbers, I would not be surprised to see a very strong rally/recovery over the next 48 hours in the SPY and other US Indexes. News-based reactive moves like this are often erased over the next 24 to 48 hours as traders realize the true capacity of the future economic trends. Stay tuned.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
3