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Nasdaq 100 - A fake rally or a genuine one? On 21st June 2022, we abandoned our short-term bearish bias on the Nasdaq 100 index. Since then, the index has grown approximately 8%. However, we are again slowly turning bearish on the index as we think the current pricing starts to be attractive for short trade (re)entry. Despite that, we remain cautious and abstain from setting a price target for NQ1!. We will monitor the ability of NQ1! to stay above/below its 20-day SMA. Fundamental factors The negative factors like higher interest rates and economic tightening continue to persist. Moreover, in our opinion, these factors are poised to worsen as the FED officials are set to pursue more rate hikes and shrink the balance sheet. As a result, we expect that to drag the Nasdaq 100 index lower. Illustration 1.01 The price retraced toward its 20-day SMA, representing a downtrend correction. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are bullish. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. The ADX contains a relatively low value, suggesting the trend is very weak or neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for NQ1!. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame stays bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
11
NQ - Defensive Rotation ahead of JerryTech continues to be sold on every CT on the Micro TF. Yesterday - Healthcare, Energy, and Utilities were Bid. The remaining Sectors saw outflows towards X-HEU's. _____________________________________________________ SSO's for APPL TSLA AMZN NVDA META NIO AMD MSFT were heavily bod for Calls. The underlying Gamma Squeeze has 4 Days to perform. NQ, on balance, remains in SloMo mode after Friday's Run & Gun Momo squeeze. NQ VX remains elevated, although that will not stop Wall Street from keying off Jerry. Currently, the FBS should see $*B added to the Fed's Balance Sheet tomorrow after the continuing carnage in Bonds. By July's end... it should be apparent the FED, short of QE is barely able to prop the Junk Co effectively. Something's going to give, perhaps we find out tomorrow. __________________________________________________________________ TUESDAY, JUNE 28 8 am Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin speaks 8:30 am Trade in goods (advance) May -- -$105.9 billion 9 am S&P Case-Shiller U.S. home price index (year-over-year) April -- 20.6% 10 am Consumer confidence index June 100.0 106.4 12:30 pm San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speaks WEDNESDAY, JUNE 29 8:30 am Gross domestic product revision (SAAR) Q1 -1.5% -1.5% 8:30 am Final domestic demand revision (SAAR) Q1 -- 2.7% 8:30 am Gross domestic income revision (SAAR) Q1 -- 2.1% 9 am Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England President Andrew Bailey and BIS head Augustin Carstens speak at ECB conference 11:30 am Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks at ECB conference 1:05 pm St. Louis Fed President James Bullard gives opening remarks
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
MBS - The Darkest end of the PoolBravo TV, off again by over a Trillion, no mention of the Junk Co sitting on Primaries @ $50 they cannot unload. FED MBS is $2.7 Trillion. Commercial Banks hold $3.13 Trillion in MBS. Get it together. ____________________________________________ NO BID is the current arrangement, 30 Year Mortgages up from 3 to 6%. The Fed's average Maturity is 7.1 Years, they'll be bagging these for some time and in order to bail out the primaries they'll have to suck up more. OR they can crash the Bond Markets. They'll attempt to run it off, but they own 28.2% of all Mortgages. The Bond Market is performing the FED's work, cuz the punks at the FED have no intention of powering in QT., rather, much further instability and dislocation Risk. ______________________________________________ THE FED IS TARGETING STOCKS for a reason... Thye need a Inverse Wealth Effect and are winning on that front. Much more to come... FSR is a 50% reduction @ 8K NQ and 2.4K ES. ______________________________________________ Growth, Payrolls, Retails Sales? Fight Inflation? Give us 75 to 100 in July. Bring down Equities to targets and transfer the Wealth. Far and away the easiest "Target" is the Market for Stocks.
FRED:MBST
by HK_L61
4
NQ - Daily 3 / 5 / 8 / 13 / 21 EMAsGive us the TOSS, please. We want to SELL this Junk Co. NQ performing like one of those captive Orca. Eating Training Wheel Trainers. It's post Solstice, the seasonals are weaker than Wet Napkins @ Taco Bell, but the DG's want to join the Chase. Although they remain non-plussed so far. Beaten with the Ugly Stick time after time will instill Fear. A couple of weeks, it's over again as Q2 EPS will be the biggest disaster YTD. Is Apple gonna beat? Is Tesla gonna have another blowout Quarter? Last time Eron lied his ass off, Tesla was halved... Couldn't happen to a bigger CON.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
8
Nasdaq 100 - A new low confirms that downtrend will continueToday, the Nasdaq 100 index erased its gains from the preceding day, hitting all our previous price targets for NQ1! and QQQ. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the index. We remain bearish due to fundamental factors pointing to a strong recession. However, technical factors also support this pessimistic thesis. Due to that, we would like to set a new price target for NQ1! at 10 500 USD and 10 000 USD. We would also like to set a new price target for QQQ at 265 USD and 260 USD. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.01 Moving averages continue to confirm the downtrend. Although volume declines slightly, we will pay close attention to it. If volume continues to fall further, it might foreshadow an upcoming “bear market rally.” However, if the support is broken, then the selloff is likely to accelerate. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
6
NQ - 4 Hour / for TuesdayThe Riggers are teeing up the next Monthly pivot around July 15th. It should provide some great range. We expanded to 700 only to concede to 350 for Quad Squid. The VIX has a few lower gap fills in the 29s. __________________________________________________________ Oil needs to complete the Pullback to 104/105. TNX hopefully gets another BT of 3.220 and Uncle Buck sees a little Wiggle Wiggle and fold to 102s low on 6E clusterfack. The EU is in a serious sitch... will Spray Tan Queen actually grow a pair or does she fold like her Jiggle. We'll know soon enough. There's no reason to own this fluffed-up Junk - even after this decline. Strength of prior RT... weak azzed.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
2
NQ - Weekly 2/2 down extends Or so it would appearTech is just facked. Whether or not it front runs Q2, is frankly silly. Apple isn't making Phones, Tesla isn't making anything but TeslaBots. Eron is reaping the winds of Political missteps. Couldn't have happened to a greasier Degenerate - #EronTurd. Doge Daddy, Pimp my Ride, Space Sex, Boring... The dude can't find love no mas. A Disgraced hypoego-eccentric azz clown. According to CNBC is he has ditched his former ways and is a new Shlub - caring, kind, and an attentive listener in meetings with Twitter... the "freedom of speech platform for those who have been marginalized..." Quick Fix... the Big idea... Let's charge people to maintain the Cult of Idealgoues @ Twitter~! Problem solved~! No. Even halfwit Kendall Jenner and her clan of Squid are going to seek refuge elsewhere. ___________________________________________________________ All the share buybacks are authorized... where's the bid... There is not one.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
3
Nasdaq 100 - Institutions sell their assets at a record pace!After the bear market rally, the Nasdaq 100 index made a new low in tandem with our expectations. Currently, the price of the Nasdaq 100 index exhibits rounding on the hourly chart. We will pay close attention to this development and volume levels, especially as it gets closer to the FOMC. Further, we expect the FED to worsen the economic situation, eventually culminating in a stronger selloff. Ahead of the FOMC and throughout it, we will seek declining volume accompanying the rising price of NQ1!. That will be a bearish sign of a faltering rally (in today's price). Overall, we maintain a bearish outlook on the Nasdaq 100 index. Our new price target for NQ1! is 11 250 USD and 11 000 USD. Our new price target for QQQ is 275 USD and 270 USD. Fundamental factors News outlets report that institutions are selling their assets at a record pace. Today, the FED is likely to raise interest rates by 75-100 bps. If it proceeds with 100bps, then that would be the biggest rate hike since the 1990s. We expect this to weigh on the economy and drag it lower. Additionally, we expect the same from the reduction of the FED's balance sheet. Illustration 1.01 The picture shows the actual rounding on the hourly chart. We will monitor it closely as there is potential for the cup and handle pattern to form. That will be a bearish development. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 NQ1! trades around November 2020 value. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
8
QQQ - AbhorentBetween Whipsaw Wednesday and Free Fall Friday, there is much to digest. The EU blew projectile chunks of feigned "Panic" last night. At a time when the ECB announced yesterday it was phasing out all QE, the spray tan queen... decided - oopsie, mistake. They CAN NOT target monetary policy to both inflation and bond market stability. See Italy, Spain, and France. Pick any country, EU Bond Markets are done for, just one, any one Nation... it's over Jimmy. We indicated the non-aggregation of Debt, was the EU's Monetary demise from DAY 1. __________________________________________________________________________ June 15 and 17 Expiry have very different appearances. Any Questions should be deferred until 3 PM EST.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by HK_L61