No one expects another gap down tomorrow...It seems everyone is bullish now and desperate for a move up.
There is a chance of seeing the whole move down to 12700-20 by tomorrow tomorrow am!
I will be shorting any bounce with a tight stop and going long at 12700-20 for a good size move up, maybe even to new highs.
The R/R is much better at 12700-20 then at this point.
Have a good night
Nq!
NQ is following the script, such a good boy!NQ main target is 12700-20 as per my last update.
Its not as far any more isnt it
Notes from the last night update:
NQ:
- Tomorrow's important levels to hold at 13100 and especially 13065
- I'm looking for the NQ to hit 12700 zone by the 25-26th on Aug and then a last push to 13900 by Sep 2-6th to finish this move up. This is a bullish pattern I'm watching
- There is also a possibility of a lower high of 13400-13450 off 12700 low. This is a bearish scenario going into Sep.
NQ has a patheway to 12700 and to 13900 after thatIm tracking the pathway of the NQ to hit 12700 zone by the 25-26th on Aug for a last ideal push to 13900 to finish this move up.
There is also a possibility of a lower high of 13400-13450, but I will update on what I see after we hit the ideal low
Tomorrow's important levels to hold at 13100 and especially 13065
$NQ1! - What's next?NQ1! - What's next?
It's time to for PB as I stated at start of the week, imo it seemed over extended and I looking a LT positioning with NQ & ES at this moment of time 13250 for NQ is the next support areas. However, if we break above 13 and half areas, I will be re-thinking the idea of execution. We have DXY heading higher, and perhaps re-test highs on DXY. Overall, the key important information will be Jackson Hole.
TJ
Advanced TA (Gann, Fibonacci, Elliot Wave, Others) Lead TrendsThis is a complex chart showing the SPY in a broad spectrum of Advanced Technical Analysis. What you need to understand is this rally has stalled after a "scouting party" attempt to identify support above the long-term CYAN price channel (which also acted as support in early 2021 on the way down).
Failure to hold this support level will prompt a very big downside price trend that may retest the 2015-16 lows.
Everyone is talking about a Fed Pivot - but I don't see that happening.
I see a broad financial crisis event unfolding over the next 4+ years where asset values contract (homes, stocks, and others) in a global unwinding process. China/Asia are particularly at risk because they may not see any real recovery from their excess speculation phase until after 2027+.
The US markets may recover 2~3 years before foreign markets as the US has somewhat prepared for another crisis event after 2007-10 - but we'll see.
Failure at this point would indicate a potential for a new Wave 3 (downward) that could be rather large.
Learn to protect your assets as you identify opportunities. This is not the time to go ALL IN on any big trend.
This warning is CONDITIONAL. The SPY would have to move lower and break $363 to establish a new downward price trend.
Follow my research.
One Chart SUMS it All Up - EuroDollar : SPYLower, far lower lows are ahead.
SPY Gaps:
400.76
338.66
285.67
235.77
Every one of these will be filled from October 2023 to March 2024.
The DX will return to 125.
Bond Yields 4 to 6% at a minimum regardless of the FED's utter nonsense.
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Keep it simple, the Indices will Collapse.
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One final blow-off is due, IF key Support holds for the Equity Complex, fail
and this retracement ran Exactly to the .677 TGT we've had since June 17th.
Then few believed the Summer rally would be able to achieve these levels,
most were looking for far lower.
They were simply early and off for time.
Time is now approaching for the next move lower, hopefully, there will be
a thrust conclusion to 2/5 Lower.
If it holds symmetry - we can see higher highs prior to a complete collapse.
This remains a very large Bear Market regardless of Price.
NQ main support for tomorrow 13273 and 13210Im looking for a good size gap down tomorrow to mark the top, otherwise we can still press higher .
The low should come either on the 22 or 26th. I personally like second date as it would be a perfect long setup going into the long weekend bull trap.
Ideally next high (if we topped) is a lower high. Also will be looking at turning week, if we close lower then next one, then the low might come on the week 29th and high before Sep OPEX.
Since cycles are inverted a lot (usually the case in Aug), I have no clear picture of the maj top being in place or when it comes. I got 2 dates, early Sep or Sep OPEX week.
Im short going into the next week.
Will start looking at swing short position only after we break 13115
NAS100 H1 one more Bulliish Push?OMXHEX:BULL_NQ100X1_NF1
NAS100
Looks like PRICE objective is to visit 13765.00 area before we see a significant correction back to 12432.00 area.
Alternatively we will keep on buying the deep to 15500.00 area for a Bullish Cypher pattern.
DISCLAIMER
Charts are educational, not INVESTMENT recommendations
SPY Dancing On The Edge Of A CliffThe US markets are experiencing a unique capital shift at the moment. Foreign capital is pouring into the US equity markets and driving the US Dollar higher.
When this trend shifts - look out below.
I'm sending this warning to all traders/investors right now. Even though my research suggests we may see an extended rally phase lasting many years for the US markets - any global crisis event (think China/Asia/Russia) could blow a hole in the support we are seeing right now.
In other words, stay cautious, use stops, play the trend as very fragile and possibly strengthening over time.
My research focused on broad cycle patterns and suggests a big cycle event will take place in the second half of 2022. After that, the next big cycle event is more than 4+ years away.
That means we have quite a bit of time to trend, or move into a disruptive phase, over the next 4+ years.
Pay attention.
$AAPL $AAPL - Who doesn't love a good 'Juicy' $APPL?!
We at clear resistance zone, I'd ideally like a PB.
Key Tip: You can't actually learn by those Instagram profiles full of 'strategies'. The only way of learning how to trade would be getting hands on experience by validated traders with track record. There're various stages in learning it's like mountain you learn the technicals, fundamentals and then you got the psychology aspects which a lot of manipulations in general happens regarding in the market and outside of the market, which very few understand... This industry is full of 'social media gurus' but make sure you tread carefully.
Here's a great statistic for you: 80% of all day traders quit within the first two years.
All the best,
TJ
ES - 1 Hour / Pivotal Timeframe - BONDS DivergingWE REMAIN IN A BEAR MARKET, regardless of the Retracement.
The 50SMA is 35 handles below the 200SMA.
Bullish?
Definetely not.
That said, the Riggers on the Trigger will continue to bleed out every
last cent prior to the next sudden and very sharp decline.
For now they have the Ball, but "Inflation is at Zero" from the Admin
has found new heights of perceptuion management - Absurdity.
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After the 199 EMA tag n' bag, a defensive retracement on Profit taking.
Under the hood, the Volumes continue to decline, Retailers continue to
add Puts citing the VIX @ Lows.
Dr. Bury, deep drawdown on Scion's Puts.
FOMO on the FED Pivot has hit 92% Sentiment for Bulls, room to run as
the horror show can extend and pretend for a few more weeks. Extreme
Greed is in trade.
Twitter is filled with the usual Buzz Lightyear overreach, "Infinity~!"
While MBS remains - NO BID and Defaults are rising rapidly.
Bond Auctions - 379 Failures.
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Insiders buying on Share Buy Backs, Insts peeling it off ever so slowly.
Unfortunately, Retail Put buying is back to FOMO as well - a large short term
cross-current.
It appears to be a Distribution phase into a Range... where is the range?
That will depend on today's response to the FOMC's Meeting Minutes.
A larger Pullback is due, there are 7 Gaps below, how will today and Friday's
expiry trade out? High Probability - ranging to wreck Retail's Bearish positioning
with an expanded range now that 4337 was front run for SEP, DEC blew right thru
this level.
Apple's Gap @ 175 wants a fill, Tesla is a mental patient once again, seeking 1030
to 1050 in the break - this implies the 4337 may give way to a higher high into
the pivot for time, AUG 22nd to SEP 4th/5th.
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Slop, Chop, Pop & Drop - the RANGE.
To Distro more Junk & Co.
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Bonds are not buying it... as they are watching the inversion with disbelief as China
begins "enhanced lockdowns" and Global Economic activity implodes... yeah, naw, they
are calling Bullsh_t.
Inversion is 12 Bips away on the 1's - 2's on out to 5's checkmate - Inverted and although
they are ranging between 32 and 48 Bips... it is 100% persistent.
HGY - Denegerate disbelief, Bonds should not, in any way be acting as they are were this
a Bull Market or New Bull Market... it tales time to assert reality. It takes time to Distro
off all the Junk bought near the lows to be re-liquified at a time when Liquidity is simply
evaporating due to the crushing load of debt, both public and private from all corners.
Housing Starts were another disaster, retail sales - with Back to School may shows signs
of hope, false hope, but hope none the less, we shall see how the Cooks in the Kitchen
serve it up.
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RTY / ES / NQ / YM made extreme moves off the June 16th Pivot.
Today, we'll find out whether we consolidate in an expanding range or simply run through
resistance to higher levels - A rally no one understands, but FOMO Degens do not care.
September is ahead, statistically - the worst month of the year.
Funda's are not driving Junk & Co, greed and fear are. Mo $, Fear of Mo $ miss.
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In SUM, it's a dangerous Joke of an Equity Complex that will do far more harm.
Hyper BK Junk BBY, GME, AMC, COIN all finding Uber Luv. We've seen this time and again
and the ending... the song remains the same.
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Extreme Patience remains the stock in trade.
NQ Summation and OSC's are getting squeezed to extremes once again, point critical
has arrived.
The 2 Year (2YY Futures) will define the Pivot, where the Fed has a modicum of control
on the Curve.
TLT appears to be an "M" for Murder and not a New Bull Market, it can RT to 130, but given
the recent performance, that trade is growing long on hope, faith and success. The DX
is at a super critical level - with Eurodollar Futures GED.X cranking back down, somethings
going to Snap.
A great deal hinges on Crude Oil - 85 to 77 to 64 is the implied lower range over time... awhile.
Oil tends to lead the declines in Bear Markets as Utilities, Healthcare and Bonds are the rotation
on schedule.
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RESISTANCE AHEAD OF NEWS is where we are.
ES - 15 Minute / Micro RangeHousing continues to implode along with China's recent Urban Outfitters.
8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) July 1.63 million 1.70 million
8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) July 1.52 million 1.56 million
Interesting China avoided its Ecuminiopolis Economy... it's worse, of course.
The Cerveza Sickness compounds across all regions.
The Hot Topic is China leaving behind "Zero Bat Soup"...
Unlikely, why abandoned control... yeah, naw, the CCP will never do that.
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Hedge Funds have decided the Doom Loop is about to re-engage - placing very
heavy wagers on a serious move lower.
Currently, Micro Support for the ES is @ 4267.75.
For NQ - 13562.25
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I am watching 4 instruments closely.
1. 2YY - 2 Year Futures 3.255
2. Crude Oil Range 77 - 95 (OXY Carbon Capture Squidview interesting, heavy bets there.)
3. DX - 107+ is going to be a large issue for the Bulls.
4. Cash VIX Wednesday after FOMC playbook full of Toxic Vapors.
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Apple / Tesla / Microsoft / Amazon / NVidia and assorted Fang Frauds continue to
grind the Sellers - asymptomatic ALGO Driven eat sh_t Sellers grinder.
It remains a DIp Buyers Market, for now... let the Degens burn themselves out, it
is not time just yet, we're getting there, but the horny little devils need another
spunk junk run.
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4303 is the important close, the Bulls need this, without it... it's winding back
down for a piece.
Patience is always the play, especially during Summer. Time is winding down
for TIME, August 22nd to September will tell us a great deal.
Fiscal Spending has been the latest Taxpayer Grift, Timme fo' Stimmy simply
received a bigger bill.
Delusions abound.