Trading the ES on 4/5/2021In this video I show you how I used the Opening Range and Initial Balance indicator to predict price.
There was one real opportunity today to catch the rally of the ES. The pullback to the top of the Initial Balance at 8 am PST was a textbook long entry.
*** I may have said NQ in the video. I meant the ES.
NQ
Futures NQ to push stock further South? NQ 1 hour futures set up for a further decline. Interested to see what the night will bring for momentum. Overall, the EMA and MACD are in tandem with a slight short term downward trend.
By the numbers:
1) MACD cross over down several trading bars/candles ago. Notice to the left the MACD has also dipped below the even/zero line indicating negativity brewing in the momentum.
2) Notice when the MACD crossed over to the down side, the momentum went reasonable flat and 10 bars after the cross over, the EMAs crossed negative
3) Once the EMAs cross down and the both the EMA and MACD were trading to the downside, so did the price. This would have been an objective Short entry with approx. o.45% to the down side. Roughly a half percent doesn't seem like much but in the options world with an ETF like QQQ sitting at $223.87, a half percent move is roughly roughly a $1.00 move. A dollar move in options in the span of a day or two in some cases is pretty significant gains.
Example:
QQQ Put Option at $2.83 strike price w/ expiration Feb 5
Delta = 0.54
Theta = 0.08
Diff = 0.46
Barring other smaller factors that may come into play, this is roughly about $40 per option purchased at $283 each.
Profit = 14% in relatively short order
I do expect further downside for NQ but this is an example where you take profits to reduce risk.
More aggressive traders can wait until one of the indicators reverse and the two indicators are not in synch with one another.
Nasdaq_Indexes_Look into todays action_Shorts considered only. Occasionally I will be slapping together a commentary about the days action on my favorite index and making a point to pickout the best entry of the day. This does not mean I take these entries. I simply point them out.
These posts will be short simple and insightful.
Notice the daily is bearish. We know better than to hold onto long positions.
Over the weekend SPX and DOWJ setup very nice looking sell signals. Market makers know all of us retail traders sat around and thought about how bad we wanted to get short all weekend. So first thing this morning they gave us our fills. NQ pushed lower and stopped out tight long trades and entered silly short orders. Then the market made a substantial move higher only to stop out the retail short traders. Only to stall around lunchtime.
Markets ticked around until 2pm when we finally started showing bearish signals and my plan allowed my to trade with the direction of the daily.
Price broke the lunchtime level and then formed a perfect verification process to confirm we were about to move lower. The market took back all the days gains between 2 and 3:50. Notice the 5 minute chart in the comments below.Cant post the 5 min which truly shows the details of today's move.
What a day. Stay tuned!
If you found this analysis useful or thoughtful Likes/Comments/Follows are much appreciated! Disclaimer: Your data may be different. Material is educational only. Trade at your own risk!