NASDAQ - NQ Black-Swan ScenarioThe Red Pitchfork is a Pendulum-Fork.
It grabs the biggest Swings and projects the most probable path of price, like in this chart.
The Count starts at P0 and relies on the REAL Swings that I teach you guys & gals. Therefore the Bump from the green Support-Line is NOT a Up-Swing. It's just the center part of a Sine-Wave.
Then P3 is created, breaking the Support from the Low of P1, and continues up to the Center-Line of the Orange Pitchfork at P4.
Since we know that
a) price has a high chance to turn in the opposite direction after reaching the Center-Line
AND
b) The Pivot Count ends and restarts at P5
AND
c) Price is still trading within the Red Pendulum-Fork
...we have a 80% Chance to reach the Center-Line of the Pendulum Fork around 1100 or even lower.
By when?
No clue yet, but have to drink another Coffee to read in the Ground again later §8-)
OK, I admit, that's a kind of a Black-Swan event.
But, I just follow my rules, my Framework and that is what I currently see.
The opposite side of this is, that the 0-3/5 Count is just a simple "Flag", and price Skyrockets to the green Center-Line of the Green Fork, around 16050 - 16250,
Taking the overall World situation, the incredible debt of countries like the USA, EU and others into the Blue-Print, I vote for the first scenario.
My Helmet sits tight.
Peace4TheWorld!
NQ
Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye?The equities markets have spent the last three months liquidating bulls, and then liquidating bears, and then liquidating bulls, because the markets are primarily a scam for big money to sell options and have them expire worthless.
No matter what system you use or whose ideas you follow, you're always just guessing, because the computers can take price and do whatever they want at any time, because there's more stocks than there are money and more money than there are stocks, all concentrated in the hands of a few select banks and funds that are really just running crowdsourced cloud algos that communicate with time stamps and decimal fractions.
It's just another scam to bankrupt people and then blame you for being bankrupt.
There's nobody this society hates more than poor people and depressed people, and no Communist Party-funded causes are paid to campaign on behalf of the poor and sad, unless it's to lead them to "Medical Assistance In Dying" (MAID; see Canada).
2023 started off uppy in a straight line, and there's no reason to believe that's going to correct until the timestamp on the market making algorithms has a year date of 2024.
Which means that this bearish impulse is just that, a bearish impulse, that may be seeing its likely finale as early as this coming week to end the October monthly bar, as the next FOMC rate decision is October 31 and November 1.
I'll provide my warning to bears and bulls alike at the early stage of the post, because I know social media and drugs have given people the attention span of children addicted to sugar and cartoons.
Did you know that Li Keqiang, former Premier of China and second in command of the Chinese Communist Party behind Xi Jinping died on October 27, "of a heart attack"?
I have been warning for years of two things:
1. The CCP is actually about to fall, and is almost entirely certain to take Xi, an idiot, to its grave with it.
2. The death toll from the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic (not to be confused with SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) is insanely scary and completely covered up by the regime.
And now we're seeing public evidence that even the Xi Faction's main network are being dropped. Keqiang was only 68 years old, which is not very old for a CCP member.
Former Chairman Jiang Zemin, the architect of the persecution and organ harvesting genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students, allegedly lived to 96, by comparison, before turning to a pile of crematorium ashes and being thrown out of the very Cosmos by the Wind itself.
All of the above is to say that the year end rally is likely arranged by "the controllers," and yet they're just mice and men, and what can actually unfold before we see 2024 is entirely in the hands of Heaven Himself.
Let's look at monthly bars:
Three mediocre red months after a series of bigly big green months isn't bearish. To the contrary, it's bullish, but it's a question of how you can finance your timing to stay solvent while the market is irrational.
Weekly bars give us more clarity:
What we're really dealing with is a meagre 12% dump over 15 weeks.
And you're going to say to yourself that 12% is actually a lot on the indexes, and I will agree with you. However, it's really not when you take a look at a pair of twin 6-7% bounces that occurred over the span of 6 and 10 trading days in the mix.
And when you pair this with the reality that the market turning around and taking out the July high is just a paltry 17% rally from the 13,750 potential reverse point, over the course of two months, bears are set up to get absolutely annihilated before the real show starts in 2024.
Nothing about the way the markets have traded indicated we have bottomed *yet*. So what we do is, instead of GoInG LoNg oN ThE DiP and getting into the same trap as Disney, Paypal, and AT&T longtards, we simply look for reversals at 13,750, because it's the August of 2022 high, and 13,480-13,550, because 13,500 is a psychological number, and go long on a reversal pattern.
If this theory pans out, not only will the indexes take out the July high, but, the Nasdaq especially, may very well take out the All Time High.
If you were to have bought a QQQ $380 call on Friday expiring January, it would have cost you ~$3.25 ($325) with a 19% delta.
If we get another 4% dump on the indexes, you can pick one up for a little more than $2 and be looking at $9-12~ after theta decay for it to be merely at the money by the end of November.
That's equivalent to going long on some penny garbage like MULN or Gamestop and lotterying into a 4 bagger on the MoThER oF aLl ShOrTSqUeEzEs.
The above is to tell you to stop following Wall Street Bets, Wall Street Silver, Stocktwits, and other public relations firm/marketing department-managed dumpster fires, stop gambling on 0DTEs, make less trades, go outside more, and enjoy your life while this planet still lasts.
Once everything is gone, it's gone forever.
Just like Atlantis, the Mayans, and the Dinosaurs.
🎯 Palladium to Platinum Metal Spread vs. American BigTech IndexThe breathtaking rally in palladium appears to be coming to the end.
Rising supply and slowing demand are undermining the price of a metal used to neutralize car exhaust emissions.
Palladium, once the cheapest of the major precious metals, soared from under $500 an ounce in 2016 to over $3,400 last March, leaving platinum and gold far behind.
The reason for the rally was growing demand from automakers who needed more palladium per vehicle to meet tightening emission standards.
However, supply could not keep up, resulting in huge shortages for some. And no less huge profits for others.
Now this is changing.
Electric vehicles (EVs) that don't need palladium are gaining more market share, and automakers are replacing some of the palladium with cheaper platinum in ICE vehicles.
Meanwhile, the supply of recycled cars is growing as those with more palladium are being scrapped more and more.
Palladium has fallen to around $1,600 an ounce, shedding more than 50 percent from its 2022 highs, and analysts are predicting an average price of just $1,150 an ounce in 2027.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that demand from automakers will fall by about 400,000 ounces between 2022 and 2027, while supply from car recycling will increase by 1.2 million ounces, with demand for palladium almost 90% dependent on automotive industry.
This will push the market at around 11 million ounces per year to a near-million ounce surplus in 2027, they said.
Russia's Norilsk Nickel, which accounts for appr. 38-40% of the world's palladium supplies, said its palladium production will fall by 8-14% this year.
Techical picture indicates Palladium to Platinum metal spread erases as much as 50 percent vs. its peaked near 3.0 in 2022, whereas the Bearish market in Palladium has fully launched.
The similar case has happened in early 00s when Palladium to Platinum ratio lost more than 90 percent over decade, as well as Nasdaq - major american BigTech index.
Will the history fully repeat itself. Or will be written in a rhyme. Lets see.
NASDAQ Friday13th Oct-2023:Analysis Should I Buy or Sell?TargetsAllright guyz
Please watch also my other last 3 videos,that will mention the way I trade- And hopefully it is benfical for you too.
Indices are dropping like I said days ago, Banking crisis and Middle East conflict threathenning.
Trading is a decision game, and sometimes taing decisions are really hard...
But there are ways how to create your full potential and prepare for the next weeks...
Thanks to all my followers, also new followers, an those who share their thoughts here and discuss in Respect.
Have a good weekend
NASDAQ Power Sell can potentially reach 14200 and lower to 13200FOMC Major Resistances and Trendlines broken
The market is bearish
maybe a P shape trap of the bulls,Dont fall into trap
In nivember or December the next Rate hike Possibility increasing.
The inidcator above shos the trend of the Highs which are red, while the market making higher highs temporarily, and lower lows. The long 15D trend, here displayed on 7 H chart shows it clearly. Use proper Moneymangement
NQ Bull Flag into Demand NQ - Daily - 14350
This is supply and demand to the tee on the NQ daily. You can see 4 days of resistance before price gapped up 580 points before pulling back. We are now retesting this area. After a demand that large, we are bound to see some sort of interest in buying within this area (theoretically).
If we are to bounce on NQ, this is likely the area we'd bounce. Either for a small relief bounce, or a large one. Keep an eye out here tomorrow.
$QQQ, $NQ, NASDAQ, QQQ short positionsNASDAQ:QQQ continues to weaken; I am short with various entries in the yellow box. Now that NASDAQ:QQQ has established a newer "lower-low" it may rally a little; but it is overall short.
As such I'll be considering $374 as the top of my new box with $368 as the likely resistance zone to press these shorts.
I think we'll see a run on that resistance zone by late November that; given the weakness proven by the lower-low, will likely fail.
Liquidity is much lower; somewhere like $320. So the current liquidity pool will likely be broken sometime soon, next 2 months.
Tracking DXY for NQ & ES FuturesHere is an example of how it is important to check the daily Bias on DXY if you are trading NQ or ES futures.
DXY is predominantly inverse the futures.
Knowing the daily bias and tracking DXY can give additional confluence to your bias/ direction for NQ & ES.
You can easily determine Bias for DXY and futures with the previous tutorial/ Tip I posted.
I hope you found this helpful.
Dissecting SPY Price trends With Fibonacci Price TheoryHave you ever wanted to learn the one technique you can use on any chart, any interval, or any technical or price set up to help you become a better trader?
Let me show you the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory and how to use it.
Price is always seeking new highs or new lows - ALWAYS.
You'll hear others talking about price filling voids or moving through accumulation/distribution phases - which is all true. Price moves through these support/resistance levels or quickly through price voids to reach new highs or lows. This is all part of Fibonacci Price Theory.
When you learn to understand various intervals using this technique (Weekly, Daily, 30 Min, or others), you'll quickly be able to identify short-term, long-term, and intra-day trends like a pro.
It is not about catching every trend reversal/setup. This technique is about teaching you to stay on the right side of trend and to target the Sweet Spot in the middle of breakaway/breakdown trends.
Follow my research. Learn how I can help you become a better trader.
Nasdaq: Taken off 🚀The Nasdaq has now rallied strongly and has left its green target zone between 15 292 and 14 431 points. The next target is now the resistance at 16 062 points and a further rise to around 17 500 points, where we expect the high of the orange wave i. It is important to note, however, that it is also possible that the high was already set in July. This alternative scenario, to which we assign a 40% probability, would come into play in the event of a drop below the zone. The low of the orange wave alt.ii would then have to be in the orange target zone between 13 934 and 12 717 points.
On My Radar: watching reaction when we tap into daily FVGWatching reaction when we tap into daily FVG above. Will price retrace lower ? will it retrace lower and then bounce?
Oct 13 was the low last year, it signaled the seasonal low before taking off to the upside for Q4.
I am watching carefully now to see if we stick with seasonality trends.
CPI/PPI/ other economic numbers could propel us higher or lower.
SPX Weekly Outlook ending Oct 13We have one large gap above and 2 gaps below. As usual, 4300 and 4200 are the whole number support.
Above 4325; we can go for the gap fill to 4400-4405. Over 4405 is 4465
Below 4300 is 4200 and then 4150 then 4100.
Remember, the JPM collar is calling for 4500 above and then 4050 below.
QQQ Short under $372I took a short at $372 using credit-calls. The thesis is that NASDAQ:QQQ has made lower highs creating high-resistance liquidity and has shown a propensity to cheese-knife down below prior swing-lows.
This is a bearish run.
There is a swing-low at $348 that is a possible bounce area; but I think that NASDAQ:QQQ intends to challenge the $372 zone anyway.
This zone is an old swing low that was taken out which makes it a high resistance area. Fading a rally to this price makes sense.
The thesis is valid if the price action toward $372 is indirect and drawn out. The thesis is less valid if price moves strongly toward $372.
The prior swing-high at $380 is much higher resistance and presents a great short opportunity that could open up if $372 becomes challenged.
For now selling premium on the short side at $372 makes sense.
If we reach $348 a buying opportunity may form.
Lastly - 27th SEP took out the 18th AUG Swing-low thus I think the market structure is still bearish which makes any swing-higher to be fadeable unless it starts to take out prior swing-highs.
SPY Cycle Patterns CRUSH Day Leads Bearish TrendingMy proprietary SPY Cycle Patterns are an advanced predictive modeling system based on Fibonacci, Gann, and price cycles.
The most incredible thing about these patterns is they predict future price action/trends many days, weeks, and months in advance - very accurately.
The accuracy ratio of the SPY Cycle Patterns is usually about 85 to 90%. There are times when it is wrong.
My proprietary research suggests we have entered a very dangerous new crisis phase. The SPY will likely target $404 or lower (possibly $393).
I'm posting this short video to help you prepare for what comes next.
Follow my research.
Looking for short entry on the $NQ overnight session.I believe price action will play out the way the blue bars are illustrated in the yellow circle. Will be looking for a short entry within the pink box range. A lot of people are calling for a counter-trend rally on the $NQ after this massive move down. But I don't think much more than a 1-4 candle correction will result. And as noted by my projection, I believe it will have been a 1 day correction and a weak one at that.
May your P&L be green and fat. This is a long term swing trade with 1st profit target at ~ $13,600. Cheers and good luck!
Nasdaq Bounce from L-MLHWhat a drag yesterday.
The red Fork gives us very good context.
We see how price reacted two times at the Center-Line.
Then came the "Flush" throu the CL with no pull-back.
No Mercy!
This move brought us down to the Lower-Medianline-Parallel. From here price starts to bounce.
It's also a level where NQ had support (see left side).
So far, divergence with the RSI is confirming a good potential for a bounce.
But I don't believe in this support, until we break the downsloping "Change In Behaviour" line. Price must prove that is has enough strenght.
If this CIB line gets broken, I expect a pullback to it.
This would be the level where I would stalk a long entry, with a target at the Center-Line.
Happy Hump-Day Tr8dingN3rds
Nasdaq - Bounce from here or tankWow, what a nice day today.
I shorted the NQ all day intraday.
Now on the bigger picture, it's decision time BabyNQ ;-)
Either the Bulls can pick it up, or it will flush below the red Center-Line.
I could imagine that the NQ will bunce from here, as it's the right time in the day and the Confluence with the CL.
Let's see...
Weekly Plan NQ Futures Week Of 9-2409/25 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures December ESZ2023.
Weekly Pivot is 14,988
Targets
15,151 9/20 gap top
15,361 last week's vpoc
15,514 prior 5D balance half back
Targets
14,816 250% extension of 5D balance break down
14,628 300% extension of 5D balance break down
15,526 6/8 gap bottom
Now trading at 14,880 NQZ
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening 14,880.
Weekly pivot at 14,98.
Each weekly target.
Side notes:
Prior day balance zone is H15,714, HB15,535, L15,352
When trading off weekly levels, each level will act as support and resistance, “no trade zones” do not apply to weekly plan.