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ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddonIn reading the title of this post, I'm sure you can tell what I want to say. Since the new habit is to guffaw and lmao at any thesis that isn't bullish, because "we" all "know" US equities "always go up" and a new all time high is "in store," I'd like to point out the Nasdaq already shows signs of having topped. That July 20, 2023 candle was some 2%+ in range and on absolutely no news. And yet the SPX has not yet taken its equivalent intermediate term high. The significance of the intermediate term highs that the Nasdaq took and the SPX is probably about to take is that they represent the March of 2022 failure swing. Why does it matter? Because that swing and its destruction was the trumpet-backed announcement that the Coronavirus Disease 2019 stimmie QE bull run had come to an end. And so coming back to raid it at a time when Big Jerome Powell openly told reporters at the last FOMC meeting that no rate cuts were scheduled AND that inflation would take years, not months, to come back to levels they regard as apropos, is a very dangerous situation. The thing about tops and bottoms is that whoever calls them is always wrong, because you can only see a top or a bottom on hindsight. In the interim, as they unfold, you can only anticipate that at a certain key price level, over a certain high or a certain low, that reversal patterns might manifest. The geopolitical situation is very sharp. I note in a new call that oil is likely headed for a literal 3 handle this year. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins And I note that the US Dollar Index is due for a rally to at least 108. DXY - The US Petrdollar And The "Prigozhin Coup" In Russia The cornerstone of the international chessboard is now, and always has been, Mainland China and its 5,000 year old country and culture, which has been ruined by the Chinese Communist Party over the course of its century of insanity. What's going on in the equities market is heavily wedded to the "War With Taiwan" narrative being espoused by the propaganda machine, which I discuss in my call on Taiwan Semiconductor TSM, a company that I believe is a significant long hedge during a potential upcoming downtrend. TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge So as for this week's call, I would like to note that, unlike the Nasdaq, the SPX has not raided its March '22 intermediate high. This high at 4,631 happens to coincide with the new "JP Morgan Chase Collar," where one of the SIB's big funds sold calls at 4,665. I discuss this collar below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' Something to understand about the big banks' business model is this: The first thing is that when they sell calls at a certain level, there is a buyer, and that buyer might be their clients. Their clients may have paid the bank the standard 10% fee in exchange for providing the liquidity. The reason the client would buy calls that JPM sells at a 10% premium is because they understand that the market will be made, in exchange, for those calls to be made worth more than they paid. Those calls were purchased at the end of June when the indexes traded circa 4,400. Why would JPM sell the calls and get themselves underwater? Because by September 29, Q3 end, they won't be underwater anymore, for one. For two, they're hedged long and are making money on the way up on the hedge. So they get to make money on the hedge, the calls ultimately expire worthless, and the client is happy because they got a big bag of cheap options at 4,400 to dump on the head of retail and Cathie Wood-style funds at 4,660. And all of this is to say that the 4,631 failure swing/pivot is very likely to be raided, and it is likely to be raided on Wednesday, FOMC day. During Monday's trade session, we will find out a lot about the intentions of the MMs. I believe they will only raid the 4,544 level on Monday market open, making it a buying opportunity to sell 100 points higher. However, if ES/SPX is to dump significantly to under 4,500 again, it stands to reason that the real target is the 4,800 ATH somewhere early in August. But I think, for a lot of reasons, this is just so less likely. Thus, SPX is likely to raid 4,544, which is to say the 4,550 psychological level, and trade over the 4,650 psychological level before Jerome Powell starts yapping. This FOMC is really significant because there isn't another rate hike until September, the end of Q3. So the trade is to long 4,540, sell it allllll at 4,650, and the target is under where JPM went long on puts and has been under water all month under 4,200 heading into the end of August and middle of September.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
Is Something Brewing at Unity?AI seems to be all the hype these days. Unity announced a closed Beta Program for their AI back in late February of 2023, and just a few weeks ago we got our first look at some of the things we can expect. Unity has almost doubled in price from its ATL's, but I don't think it's done yet. We've got a nice Cup & Handle Pattern forming on the Daily that's beginning to break out. I'd like to see price get above 48$ and stay there as a confirmation for a continuation up. -Regards, @DayTradingOil
NYSE:ULong
by DrCatherineHalsey
2
NQ1!, Retest of the BreakoutA pullback to retest the breakout of the multi-day consolidation is coming. This is an important area to watch. A potential outcome is to resume the upside move or retest the bottom of the consolidation and start to form the right shoulder of H&S. I anticipate to see a reaction first. A strong move down side would suggest the H&S scenario. The sentiment remains bullish, a pullback is expected to be bought. There is no change in the narrative to say otherwise. One can't trade leaving in the fear of a black swan event. 07/23/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ: How far can this uptrend go? Channel - There’s a clear uptrend channel. Symmetrical projection: An uptrend N pattern - By projecting a 100% symmetry projection of the initial swing from point A to B, and extending it from point C. - As the expected symmetric pullback to E did not occur, I anticipate a further 100% extension from D to F ($16,733). The target price level aligns with the historical high level, adding significance to the target price. Resistance levels on the way - The price successfully surpassed the previous key resistance level at $15,344 and paused by reaching the upper band of the uptrend channel. (Please refer to the link, "Related Ideas", below for more details.) - The next resistance level is the “Another potential TP” level at $16,216. ( If applying a more conservative initial swing. Please refer to the link, "Related Ideas", below for more details.) Support/ Defence level for bulls - Since the price successfully broke out and closed above the old key resistance at $15,344, we can adjust the prior low level to $14,853. - The level at $14,853 coincides with two key Fibonacci levels: The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level from point A to “Another potential TP” level (assuming that level G represents the end goal of this uptrend). The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from point C to point F (assuming that level F represents the end goal of this uptrend). - While the new support/defense level for the uptrend is set at $14,853, the ideal scenario for bulls is to observe a shift in the previous key resistance level at $14,344, turning it into a support level. **Not Financial Advice** The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by stock_adelie
NQ1!, Market Needs a Reason to SellLast session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the current narrative. As of now, I don't see it. Until then, one could buy pullbacks in alignment with smaller timeframe technicals. Rate hikes, shrinking economy, inflation and etc. mess with the trader's mind. They assume that market should be sold and fight the trend. But the most hated upside move remains intact. Reactions(pullbacks) are not reversals. Looking at the chart the most recent breakout, from a highlighted consolidation has negated my previous idea that this is a potential head of an H&S. A pullback to retest the breakout is a buy opportunity. I anticipate a reaction on first test. Mid of the consolidation is a second place to consider buying, confluence with the upside channel mid. Full disclosure: I'm not neither bull or bear. I only follow a typical price action scenarios. Off the topic. Regarding the shorting the market. Shorting itself is entertained by hedge funds and retail traders. They want to outsmart the market and gain big returns. The investors don't short they sell the assets to relocate money into other assets. Passive investing, corporate buy-backs, 401k, pension funds only buy. They are a permanent source of keeping the bull market afloat. For those who has an irresistible pull to short learn how to time it well and execute with a precision. 07/15/2023
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
7
ES Futures Primary AnalysisI'll keep this brief. The area on the chart where purple 5 resides best counts as a 3-wave structure. Therefore, in my primary analysis, I am counting this as an irregular b wave that made a slightly higher high and now we should be heading into the 4370 area for our black c wave of 4. I have a purple alternative 5 on the chart because there is a chance of wave 5 truncation...but that is only confirmed with a breach of 4260. If my primary analysis is correct, our black wave 5 should conclude in the area of 4519-4530. Therefore we await more price action. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
5
Market Update - BTC, BTC1!, ETH, SP, NQ, DXYQuick market update focusing on Bitcoin and covering BTC CME Futures, ETH, SP, NQ, and DXY. Effectively Bitcoin is still holding the $30k support and trend does remain to the upside, with major news events starting Wednesday with inflation data, we are expecting an increase in volume/volatility. Overall we did breakdown from the range high but until the $30k support is lost and bearishly retested the overall trend remains to the upside. TradFi is also holding its ranges continuing the rally, until higher timeframe structure is lost the expectation is that the upside trend will continue until proven otherwise. Generally we have hedged off BTC longs with some shorts from $31.2k and higher, we are still net long but have taken some profit in the upside of the range last week as a precaution. The play is the range until proven otherwise.
Long
by TrendmasterOfficial
1
NQ1! Supply Demand Levels 7/5Link to chart: www.tradingview.com After a low volume start of the week, we are running into news from 7/5-7/7. I am expecting to see some volatility due to the news releases we have this week and the start of July. We are currently sitting between zones on every timeframe, but most importantly, we did break out of the 4HR downtrend from June 16th. We are sitting near the beginning of that downtrend so I am interested to see if we can break upwards and out, or if we fail below and retest back. As always, staying open minded to what can happen next! EOW BULLS: A push to 6/16 highs of 15475 to 15524 (R1 Pivot on the 4HR). BEARS: A retest of 6/28 highs once more where price consolidated before at 15268 to 15228 to 15176 (P Pivot on the 4HR).
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by tradeswithjess
NQ1! Is a Head being formed? Technical analysis is hardly objective, every trader sees his/her brain imagination result. We can't see the future, period! I often entertain different ideas for a mental gymnastic only. Full disclosure, as a day trader, I don't really care where the market would go. I tag along with a short term sentiment. Anyway, while looking at this daily chart and relentless upside move for the first half of 2023, I can't help but entertain an idea of a head formation of a potential H&S. Every trend ends up with a consolidation which is a head of a potential H&S or inverse H&S. A breach of the outlined area to upside would invalidate that idea. A breach of R1 would confirm it. 07/03/23
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
03072023 - #NDXNDX made a nice up move as per trade plan given last Friday (). Overall, NDX is very bullish the past month with AAPL and NVDA at ATH. Weekly wise also no bearish divergence. What is strong will continue to be strong till it is not. Likely market would need further upside to call a top. For today, will like to see a dip to the PZ to go long. If market instead just rally higher from current price, would like to look for weakness at above resistance to go short (NDX is strong so will look for shorts in SPX instead). Do read my plan on SPX to know where I think it will go by EOM.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by FadeMeIfYouCan
From Inflation Figures to a Potential Bull TrapHello everybody! Today we will get the release of the inflation numbers, so I would like to give you a solid update! First of all, we are observing a gradual shift from bearish to bullish attitudes, particularly as the SPX is reaching the 4350-4400 mark, a target I previously highlighted multiple times on both Tradingview and Twitter. However, we must remain aware that the market could further extend up to 4450-4500 before peaking. For SPX the 4350-4400 zone was a key breakdown zone that was never retested, an FVG was formed which has now been filled. The NDX actually had some major gaps in this area, that have also been filled. The SPX is on the brink of becoming severely overbought at this juncture, while the NDX is clearly extremely overbought on the weekly timeframe. Whenever the Nasdaq 100 has gotten this overbought over the last few years, we have seen significant corrections follow. Also testing or going above the weekly and monthly R3 Fibonacci pivots is a sign that the market is at resistance and getting oversold on shorter timeframes too. The Russell 3000 is close to hitting a key resistance level, which is just a mere 2% away. While these indices could be close to a top, others, like CN50, DAX, Nikkei, and Russell 2000, indicate more upside. So, what's my projection for the near future? I foresee a final upward movement in stocks in the next two days. The reason for this prediction is the possibility of inflation coming in below expectations and a potential pause from the Fed without an interest hike. These circumstances could lead to a 2-3% market rally before a final short squeeze or bull trap. Even though the present market movement appears sustainable, with the rally seeming robust despite the market potentially being overbought and hitting key levels, I believe it may be time to consider taking profits, especially if we witness a significant move higher in the next 1-2 days. Inflation numbers are scheduled to be released today (or tomorrow), with expectations hovering around 4.1%. However, I expect the figure to be between 3.9-4%, as inflation is on a declining trend. This decline in inflation, coupled with a slowing housing market and rising recession probabilities, could have profound implications for the market. We've observed oil, wheat, and palladium prices dropping while copper remains flat or slightly down on the commodities front. I speculate that this might be the onset of deflation, possibly heralding the final disinflationary pressures.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by BitcoinMacro
1
AI boost US mega caps - Nasdaq, Russell 2000 Left in the ColdTech Surge: AI Stocks in the Limelight The performance of US stocks in the AI sector has been nothing short of remarkable, with over $3 trillion added to its market cap since the final quarter of 2022. The upward trend suggests further potential growth despite a broadly stable or mildly declining US stock market outside the US Megatech sector. The enduring climb of these stocks underscores the market's conviction in AI as a lasting, transformative force rather than a transient phenomenon. The US tech landscape had undergone a significant shift from a bleak outlook six to twelve months ago when technology was deemed insignificant, as currently, AI dominates the scene. The Tech Surge vs. Small Businesses: The Gap Widens The current market showcases a divide between big tech and smaller enterprises, with capital flows favoring the former. Coupled with potential deflation, this rift could intensify the struggles of smaller businesses. The thriving AI sector doesn't necessarily imply a positive outlook for smaller companies unrelated to AI in the upcoming 6-12 months. Acknowledging AI's transformative potential across industries like robotics, 3D printing, and crypto is vital. Even though a short-term crisis and job loss are on the horizon, the looming recession could present opportunities for buying cheap assets. In this unique period, reminiscent more of the 1940s and 1990s than the 2000s or the 1970s, a broader perspective, adaptability, and a positive mindset are necessary. Price action: Is the top near? Based on the Nasdaq 100 vs. Russell 2000 ratio, it's doubtful that the top is in. As you can see on the main chart, it's possible that a short-term top could be in, as NDX just filled a gap while sweeping several highs in the 14200-14300 area. However, this isn't the 2000s; this tech is more transformative. The world is ready to adopt it, and that's why ChatGPT was the fastest-adopted technology ever. Now the top 10 us tech companies have the best workforce, hardware, data, and customer base for AI; that's why they are leading the way, and they are unlikely to go down any time soon. That's confirmed by the ratio between NDX and RUT, which seems to have formed a massive cup and handle pattern that's about to break out. Maybe the current rally slows down a bit, but it's not impossible to see it accelerate rather than decelerate. The S&P 500 seems to be at least 1% higher until it hits the next resistance, but my key target has been 4350 for a long time. Once it hits it, a more substantial correction could come, even though I think it would take the SPX to 4000 at best. As for Russell 2000 looks very weak, and I think it will sweep its double bottom and fill the critical gap lower. Sentiment remains bearish For many months, on Tradingview and Twitter, I've been talking about how bearish people are, how inflation is coming down, liquidity is trending higher, and so on... yet nobody wants to hear about it. Everyone wants to talk about the ongoing or upcoming recession, and they consider AI a fad. Even after this move higher, sentiment hasn't changed, and it's getting more bearish, with people trying to short the rally, as they are angry for missing the boat. We can see that in CoT data, we can see on Twitter polls, and I can see it based on what people say on social media. Potential strategies In my opinion, it is either best to ride the trend with a small position and a wide-stop loss or wait for the market to hit key resistance, and either potentially short there if sentiment flips bullish or wait for the pullback and then go long. Although the long Nasdaq short Russell trade could have some juice left in the short term (very bullish long term), I wouldn't rush to put that trade on, as the Russell could play catch up (in the short term), as we see traders/investors diversify as they take profits from their tech stocks. These stocks are cheap and seem more 'hated' than those US mega caps. Higher interest rates and shrinking liquidity significantly affect small caps, and their situation could deteriorate. It's clear we are either in a recession or about to enter one, and these stocks have the most to lose. Therefore, once these stocks rally, especially if they outperform NDX, consider entering a long Nasdaq - short Russell trade. This trade might not work only if many large countries start banning those companies and their products or if the US starts attacking them for being too large. Until then, the ratio has higher to go.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by BitcoinMacro
Weekly Update: Has the Nasdaq Topped?The Nasdaq market has been the most impulsive looking of the indices. Having stretched slightly above the .786% retracement off the move down from November 2021 highs to the October 2022 lows, price looks to challenge the overall bearish structure. Unlike the other indices, the Nasdaq shows a clear impulsive structure. However, the problem with this idea of the NQ reaching all time highs is much the same story in all the other indices. The manner in which price started this rally off the October lows. In my opinion, it continues to tell the tale of this type of price action. One would expect a move to new highs starting off with an impulsive 5-wave structure. In the NQ, the only potential bullish structure off the lows is a leading diagonal. Although it is a motive wave and a push to new highs starting off with a diagonal is valid, diagonals tend to be highly unreliable structures. Therefore, I have to maintain that this move higher is still a B-wave counter trend rally that reconciles eventually in the 7000-9000 sometime next year. Although it is possible to retrace some and make one more high as displayed in my purple labeling, I now have a full count to the upside. Therefore, I will maintain this purple alternative count as long as price is above 14250. Below 14250, and my expectation is to ultimately resolve this larger bearish structure at far lower levels.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by maikisch