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Nasdaq NQ - A Fundamental and Technical Warning SignalFrankly speaking, the pattern that would make the most sense for the markets with the situation in the world at present is that the ATH on Nasdaq, Dow, and SPX are taken before the end of '23. However, there are a number of problems that indicate despite the extreme greed, bear capitulation, and bull euphoria this may not happen. One of the biggest fundamental factors is comments made by Jerome Powell at the last FOMC press conference, where for the first time in 15 months, a pause on rate hikes was induced. The small one is Powell made sure everybody understood that the pause was for June and June alone and not to be misconstrued as a policy change. The big one is that Powell plainly stated in answers to reporters that rates will not be cut until inflation comes down significantly, and that he expects this to take years. What this really means is that in order to have inflation really come back down, you need '08 GFC/'20 COVID demand destruction to unfold, but arguably on a bigger and more dramatic scale. What can cause a bigger and more dramatic worldwide calamity? There are only a few things, and none of them are pretty. Will they happen before election year? During election year? On top of this, with the Treasury General Account refill being the catalyst that finally impacts the reverse repo facility, liquidity is coming out of the markets, not going in. So the fundamentals of the markets and economy are actually worse now at 15,500 in many ways than they were at 10,000. But fundamentals never matter in the linear way people expect, and that's why you get 50% rallies on tech when tech as a sector is primarily worthless. So here's the technical breakdown of the NQ. On weekly and monthly bars, Nasdaq has gone up in a straight line since '23 opened. The low of the year was set in the first week of January. This is generally bullish and means we can expect new highs. However, all of these fundamental turns in the feng shui of the economic mood have occurred right as the Nasdaq was pushed back to the distribution block that formed the '21 top. This area also happens to be the 79% Fibonacci retracement level, and the entire bull run has been composed of a parabolic trend angle of better than 70 percent. Price now trades far away from every trendline there is. In fact, the delta between the '22 LOY and the trendline composed of the '18 volmageddon and '20 COVID lows is a staggering 13 percent. From where we are now it's 6,000 points. It's too parabolic, and it's happening inside of a fundamental tightening cycle, when China's economy and society is in huge trouble, and also a time when oil and natural gas look as if they're about to go town. This area between where we are now and the '22 top is an area of huge resistance. The intention, or "the plan," if you will, may very well be to send it back to the trendline with new highs being incurred only on the back of a Donald Trump 2024 Presidency. Trump winning '24 won't be quite the "W" for rightists and conservatives and the religious that they think it will be. In fact, Trump is an ass and may usher in an era of globalism, so make sure you vote for Ron DeSantis or RFK. If you ask me, the biggest fundamental tell in this is the USD. The tells are subtle, but February was a gap rebalance, and April was a higher low that also formed a double bottom. All on its own, I generally feel that's bearish. But May formed a higher low, and all while equities were mooning. And on top of that, the DXY stopped during the height of the '22 collapse, at under the 115 psychological level. Nasdaq never swept the 9,xxx level. Moreover, VIX and VIX futures are printing 13 and 14 handles, figures usually reserved for the most bullish of economic conditions. Not economic conditions where the indexes are still trading at lower highs and almost all of the core equities are still trading at just a blip. Bears have been calling for a crash for months. But how many are not only about to miss the opportunity after getting hurt, but start actually buying the dip? If Nasdaq can't make a new high and run away by July, then 9,500 is coming and it's going to come fast. You better believe it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
5
Weekly Update: Are we in a new bull market?If you’ll remember in October of 2022 when the SPX had declined 27% since the January all-time highs. It seemed the sentiment and market news were uber bearish with back drop of the Federal Reserve hiking rates by an unprecedented .75 points at its FOMC meetings at the time . Around the December lows, we began discussing in my trading room what the sentiment of traders and the financial news media would have to be once we finally arrived in the gray target box for this corrective rally I thought would persist till summer time. I was clear, that for this forecasted subsequent c-wave down (Red Arrow on Right side of Chart), that sentiment would have to be uber bullish in our B-wave target box. What would transpire afterwards would be a decline of 30% to 40%, so a decline of this magnitude would have to catch traders off guard. Some sort of event driven catalyst. Now, many months later, to listen to CNBC, it appears we’re now in a new bull market. As an Elliottition, this type of sentiment was expected. Even required, as to what comes next. If my analysis is correct, we are soon about to embark on a c-wave decline that would eventually breach the October lows. Additionally, if I am correct, once this c-wave does conclude (around 3,000 -2700 ES), it will take at least couple years or more for price to return to the area of where we are today. So, while everyone is uber bullish, the main data point to consider is price pattern and the MACD indicator. For this entire pattern to be impulsive and give us a chance to get to new highs this would mean we’re now in a wave 3 of an impulsive trend. Wave 3’s are the strongest portion of a 5-wave impulsive trend pattern and they never take place on negative divergence . Wave 3’s persist until negative divergence is broken. If we’re to break the stark negative divergences that have held since the October bottoms (see indictor portion of the chart above) price has little room for any sustained consolidations or declines. No forecast is guaranteed. When forecasting price patterns and trader behavior, support and resistance still apply. SO, to be fair, NO KEY LEVELS OF SUPPORT HAVE BEEN BREACHED that would give us any indication we've topped, or at minimum, the rally is cracking. However, as of now, the MACD indicator is telling us that with each advance of price, we're achieving that on less and less strength. Maybe that changes soon, anything is possible...but in the absence of that, new all-time highs are simply wishful thinking.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
1
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points: 1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019. 2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market." == A Caveat: The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet. What's really going on is extremely dangerous. There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP. By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments. The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night. If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once. It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York. == I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range. The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity. The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind. Monthly Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher. So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion: Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024? Two things to consider: 1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23. (This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse) 2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election So where we're at right now is make or break: Weekly For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later. Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace. If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024. However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead. It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum. What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy. If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup. The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area. But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later. Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality. But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets. It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
AMEX:SPY
by LordWrymouth
3
Weekly Update: Has the Stock Market Topped?Anyone who answers yes or no definitively to that question is really just guessing. As a practitioner of Elliott Wave I can answer that question in two-parts. 1) There is not enough price action to make such a determination In my trading room we discuss the key levels that need to be breached to even start to consider the upside pattern is cracking. To date, we're far away from those levels. Nothing provides confirmation, like confirmation. Now granted Elliottitions will have many clues along the way with the price action pattern being the most important, but until we breach 3502 in the SPX Futures, this pattern off the October lows could sub-divide into an even more complex structure, denying both bulls and bears a break out or break down. In the micro pattern, there's also nothing conclusive pointing to the downside. 2) Retracement Levels Yesterday's trading day saw price in the futures get to 4305.75. In my analysis I have the .618% retracement level of the pattern from the January 2022 all time highs to the October 2022 lows at 4309.50. Since we did not tag that level, and currently have no compelling downside set up in place, I have to assume we will eventually tag it. Is it required? No. However, to discount 4309.50 is to not know the significance of the .618%. I will not get into the importance that retracement and extension level represents except to say, we came within a hair of it yesterday. When price patterns are retracing in counter trends or advancing in trends, the .618% and it's derivatives, the 1.618% and the 2.618% (mainly in commodities) are of major significance to an Elliotition and the wave count. Therefore I'll conclude by stating as to where price is today, and the proximity to the .618%, I would answer the question of "Has the stock market topped" by simply saying either it did yesterday, or it's top is imminent. Anyone who says different, is truly guessing.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
4
Weekly Update: The Triangle Count was Invalidated, Now What?Since the December lows of 3788 ES, I have been tracking a triangle pattern that would have reconciled higher in my target box for a larger B-wave. Readers can look at previous postings to see what I have been forecasting. Last week, SPX Futures breached the 4208.50 level. So, with that, the final micro target of an e-wave was invalidated and thus the triangle count abandoned. With respect to a triangle pattern, two topics I continue to share with my members in our trading room is (1) Triangles are rare patterns, and (2) they typically invalidate between the D and the E wave, only to reveal a much simpler pattern. Yes, it is true price patterns can become complex when in the midst of a counter trend corrective rally or decline. However, I tend to keep my labeling simple rather than defaulting to the complex as many of these patterns tend to be viewed as simple zig zags in the rear-view mirror. That is what we have been presented with now that price has invalidated the more complex triangle pattern as featured above. Here's where things get tricky. For the Elliott Wave uninitiated, after an A and B waves you get…” Wait for it” …a C wave. Anyone who follows or practices Elliott Wave Analysis would agree when I say that a C-wave feels like a Crash when the reconciliation is to the downside, or a parabolic move when the trend is up. If you wish to challenge that my determination of that feel free to post your comments below. I will admit in the short term, there appears to be some work to do to the upside for our A wave to equal our C wave higher. But here’s the most important piece of information I share with you today. With the breach of 4208.50 last week, I now have the minimum waves in place to consider this counter trend rally complete. However, as of the time of my authoring this weekly update, I have no immediate information that our upside pattern is complete. Let’s discuss what I expect now, and what clues we will see before such a “Crash Event” lower is underway. My Expectation: Let me start with the mathematical sweet spot for the counter trend price action to complete and reverse from. That price point is the .618% Fibonacci retracement level up at 4309.50. That would mean we have about only about 2.8% upside left to go from current levels. However, the reasonable target area higher (above the .618% level at 4309.50) could extend at maximum to the price area of 4529. That is the .786% retracement level. In fact, prior to that level, price would have to exceed the 1.0 extension level higher at 4517. So, let’s assume that everything goes right with the Fed, Inflation, the Jobs Market, and Not to mention the debt ceiling…4529 would be the statistical anomaly for higher price action. So, what’s my expectation higher: Provided we do not breach 4062.25 then I think it’s reasonable to expect 4309.50. Below 4062.50 and the possibility we are in our C-wave down to NEW LOWS, starts to get higher. Disclaimer: If you have gotten this far in this post then you have read all of the above. Many of the comments I receive here on TradingView...are from people who scan my posts...but have a lot to comment on...al of which I address within the context of my posts. Just like trading...reading is hard. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
ES (SPX500) Short-Term Bullish Expectation/AnalysisThis expectation is a framework to look for a potential trading setup; I don't just execute based on these levels, I always wait for confirmations on lower timeframes This Analysis was done using my complete Strategy which includes: - Smart Money Concepts - Multi Timeframe Liquidity and Market Structure - Supply And Demand - Auction Theory - Volume Analysis - Footprint - Market Profile - Volume Profile - WYCKOFF - ETC
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by SmartMoneySource
NASDAQ: Crossed over the August 2022 High but overbought.Nasdaq hit and crossed today over R1 (13,730) which was the High of August 16th 2022, the last major Resistance standing. It did so however on an overbought 1D technical timeframe (RSI = 70.248, MACD = 173.650, ADX = 31.828), which is a bell to start booking profits, especially since the price is approaching the top (HH trendline) of the Rising Wedge, the pattern that guides the trend since November. More specifically, every time the 1D RSI hit the 70.000 overbought level in the past 12 months, Nasdaq declined. There is a HL trendline that supports the RSI though, so you can prepare your buy accordingly. We will take advantage of the next pullback and target the 1.236 Fibonacci extention (TP = 14,500). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100
by InvestingScope
15
Market Reversal Fueled by Biden's Positive Remarks on US - NQM In today's trading scenario, we witnessed a fascinating turn of events. The market initially opened with a downward wick, touching the previous day's closing level and the London session's support. However, the tide swiftly turned, largely attributed to President Biden expressing positive sentiments about the avoidance of the US debt ceiling. This optimism sparked a notable shift in market sentiment. The levels I outlined at the open were as follows: Downside: 13505, 13483, 13460, 13430 Upside: 13540, 13575, 13600, potentially reaching as high as 13660. These levels served as significant benchmarks for today's trading. The upside, though, ventures into somewhat uncharted territory as we have not tested these areas since the highs of August 2022. As we tread these waters, it's crucial to remain vigilant and adaptable to the market's responses to macroeconomic news and global sentiment. Stay tuned as we continue to track the market's reaction to these crucial levels, and navigate our trading strategies accordingly.
CME_MINI:NQM2023Long
by Pablo_The_Latin_Trader
Weekly Update: Do the Little Things Matter? As an analyst, I often wonder if I get too much into the weeds (so to speak) at times. In the final analysis do those tiny details even matter? When you’re both a full time trader for profit, and simultaneously an analyst who shares one’s work publicly, often times distraction and multi-tasking is the enemy of discovery. Hopefully, this is not one of those times. It’s no secret I exclusively use MACD in my analysis. To use MACD properly is to know the indicator intimately. MACD, or moving average convergence/divergence, is a trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two exponential moving averages (EMAs) of a security’s price. The MACD line is calculated by subtracting the 26-period EMA from the 12-period EMA. The result of that calculation is the MACD line or Zero-Line. A nine-day EMA of the MACD line is called the signal, which is then plotted on top of the MACD line, which can function as a trigger for buy or sell signals. That's probably more than you ever wanted to know about the indicator. Now in my analysis I do not use MACD as a buy/sell indicator. I exclusively use MACD as a means to guide me within my Elliott Wave analysis. In doing so I have to rely on the indicator to guide me with the following: 1. Is this an A-wave within a corrective structure, or a wave 3 within an impulsive structure? 2. Is the trend concluding or persisting? 3. Is the bottom or the top of a wave structure valid, or should I expect One More High or Low (OMH/OML). Without observing the indicator in conjunction with my Elliott Wave count, I fear I would be inaccurate in my forecasts. To say MACD is essential to my price pattern analysis is analogous to saying water is essential to life. For me, I cannot perform one without the other. However recently I noticed some very small anomalies in the indicator while analyzing price action that I hope to remember to come back and check for validity. in the above chart I notated two bottoms in price action and how the indicator reacted to both. As I track and report on each and every tick of the ES/SPX Futures, I noticed our recent breach of 4068.75 a week go to 4062.25 was not on positive divergence. Now anyone who would say I'm way to focused on a detail that in the grand scheme of things means nothing, would get no push-back from me. But is it really meaningless? Is it a clue? Is it the detail 99% of traders would miss, and in the end...is everything? Truth is...I don't know yet. Time will tell. The above chart I have manually stretched the MACD indicator, but unstretched and it clearly debatable the recent bottom may not have breached the previous MACD reading and since price has reversed, to the unobservant eye, we have what could be positive divergence. So, how do we know? To confirm this was not a mear over estimation of one's detailed orientated skills, the price action would need to follow through lower, without making a new high. Thereby confirming this MACD reading was no random reading worthy of being overlooked. RN Elliott postulated that price action is fractal across all time frames. That's interesting to me, because of this one singular MACD reading has chosen to occupy space in my brain so much that I'm now noticing the very same anolmolies in the micro patterns as well. Nonetheless, I have a tendency to think positive or negative divergence is either confirmed or it's not. In my current mind, this is not up for debate. Now maybe I am proven wrong as time goes on, but even if that happens, this would not be an unworthy study in what confirmation actually means. Therefore, I will continue to wonder, IF THE LITTLE THINGS MATTER. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
NQM Technical Analysis: Treading into Uncharted TerritoryToday's premarket moves for NQM have presented an intriguing scenario. News induced volatility sent us for a wild ride, with a sharp drop back to yesterday's support near 13430. Expecting a bounce and a wick fill, the surprising strength of the subsequent upward push—smashing through the main resistance—has taken us into relatively unexplored territory. With the only historical data point being a peak from August 2022, we're stepping into the unknown, but there are a few key levels I'm keeping a keen eye on: Given the overall 4h trend, I think long plays will be going with the main trend. Long / Resistance Levels: 13470, 13500, 13550, and potentially 13575 if the bulls take the reins. Short / Support Levels: 13445, 13425, 13400, and potentially as low as 13360 if the bears seize control, a fall that far would disrupt the structural pattern we've been monitoring. In such uncharted terrain, it's crucial to remain adaptable and responsive to changing market conditions. Let's see how NQM navigates this new ground. Stay tuned for updates." As always, remember to trade responsibly and manage your risk effectively. -The Latin Trader
CME_MINI:NQM2023Long
by Pablo_The_Latin_Trader
Nasdaq: Time to Continue its Bull Run Again?Hello Fellow Stock Investor/Trader, Here's an Outlook for NASDAQ or NQ1! Price Action Analysis 1. NASDAQ has rebound on the dynamic support (EMA200) and Multiple Rejection Area 2. Forming a Descending Broadening Wedge, the pattern indicates a bullish continuation pattern 3. Breakout of the pattern confirmed the possibility of the upside movement 4. The Momentum Indicator also made a golden cross, signifying the possible upside movement to the target area. The roadmap will be invalid after reaching the target/support area. Support the channel by smashing the rocket button and sharing your opinions in the comment below! "Disclaimer: The outlook is only for educational purposes, not a recommendation to put a long or short position on the NASDAQ"
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by financialfreedomgoals101
Major drop on NASDAQ might happen. NASDAQ / 1W Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown. NASDAQ chart from today looks similar to the pattern we had in 2000-2001 recession. If the US will indeed a recession by the end of this year or the coming year then it's worth watching over this pattern that lead to the major drop. Checkout the chart for more details on levels I'm watching for long term setups and where I'll be cautious to inverst any money in the technology sector. Trade safely, Trader Leo.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Leo-btm
9