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NQ - Interesting area!NQ - Interesting area! CME_MINI:NQ1! GLOBALPRIME:NAS100 Another key resistance area Highs: 13248.75 Lows:12957.00 Currently we are still within the ranges even though we've had CPI print we did escalate higher, but couldn't go above key resistance of: 13230 areas we could need break higher above that resistance to go towards levels of 13347.00. However, if we are to break below the lows I expect 12800 areas to be key support that could be reached! Pay attention! Trade Journal
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Trade_Journal
Weekly Market Update: ES Waking up from a Bearish Slumber?Recently, the market has been reluctant to give back any gains over the course of the last three weeks. But is that changing now? Price action is a function of trader sentiment. Knowing that, every morning I wake up and ask myself, “WHY would any trader (fundamentally or technically) want to own stocks right here”? Seriously, there is no case to be made either on a fundamental or technical basis. Nonetheless, that is not how price patterns form. You need someone to take the other side of your trading thesis. Without that liquidity, I think the market would have other (more serious) issues. Technically, I have the ES having just completed its D-wave in a triangle pattern that started on December 22nd. That means we should decline in a 3-wave pattern in our E-wave for completion of our larger B (as shown on the chart). This retracement down should ultimately complete around the area of BEST CASE: ES-4005 and worst case (if the triangle pattern is correct) ES-3877. However, determining that as a legitimate bottom will be whether we can decline and maintain positive divergence on the MACD indicator. I’ll conclude by keeping this simple. If at anytime during my expected decline into the 4005-3877 area, MACD prints lower than the red-line on the chart... That is a clue we will get continuation…and we will continue to do so, until we can build a pattern of bottoms on positive divergence. Keep that top of mind over the course of the next couple weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
3
Short-Term Market Fluctuations: Analyzing the NQ CorrectionIn this article, I'll explore the recent decline in the Nasdaq 100 (NQ) index from the 13,200 level, focusing on its corrective nature and potential implications for short-term price action. By examining the 15-minute timeframe chart and considering the impact of tomorrow's scheduled economic release , we can gain insights into possible market moves and make more informed trading decisions. Identifying the Corrective Nature of the NQ Decline From 13,200, the NQ has experienced a decline that appears corrective rather than impulsive. If you examine the 15-minute timeframe chart, you'll likely concur with this assessment. The current targets for this correction sit around 13,000 or as low as 12,980. Considering the Impact of Economic Releases on Short-Term Price Action What makes me skeptical of further short-term downside is the fact that economic data is set to be released tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM in premarket trading. If the NQ continues its decline to complete the correction, it's probable that we will witness a significant upside move following the release of the data. Analyzing the Initial Move and Providing Actionable Information My concern with the initial decline is that it consisted of three waves, rather than a clear five-wave impulse. For now, I'm ruling out the possibility of a major downside move tomorrow. Unlike some traders who provide vague content and only reveal their "conditional" orders after the fact, I aim to offer actionable information beforehand. If the NQ drops into the 8:30 AM release tomorrow, we are more likely to see an upward move. Conversely, if the index rises overnight, we can expect a downside move following the data release. Understanding the corrective nature of the NQ's recent decline and factoring in the impact of upcoming economic releases can help us better navigate short-term market fluctuations. By providing actionable information ahead of time and adapting my analysis as needed, we can make more informed decisions and improve our trading outcomes. Keep an eye on the NQ's price action as we approach tomorrow's data release and adjust your trading strategy accordingly.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by bitdoctor
NDX/NQ/MNQ Pre-Market and Week OutlookAs we sit right now it looks like the NDX might gap on the open. I'll be live trading streaming this week so tune into that, also update idea as week unfolds. If we start on the upside the zone what we're watching is the August 2022 4D key level at 13,639. A reach for the market would be the 4D extreme zone between 13,900 and 14,100 or so. On the downside we see the obvious day momentum checks and bias checks as well as key levels and gaps. One key area is the significant high anchored vwap at 12,918, if that gets tested and holds anticipate the highs will be breached. Below that around 12,500 to 12,000 is the four day reaction zone which aligns with key reaction zones on the daily. Should be obvious how to trade this week with these key reaction zones identified. wait for confirmation and trade for the RD 4-chart patterns.
NASDAQ:NDX
by RexDogActual
4/4 Watchlist + NotesSPY - We were spot on with our analysis going into today's session. Last night I mentioned that we had a strong close on the daily and weekly and that I wanted to see us push higher. We also stayed within a 1% range today as I had also hoped to see (.71% range total today). Didn't quite get the movement we were hoping for (Inside Day), but we still were accurate otherwise. We closed green on the day and made a smaller green candle than we did Friday, which signals a few things for me. Here are all the considerations I have currently for my prediction for tomorrow: 1) Slightly overextended on the daily + close to exhaustion risk, (Bearish) 2) Still have strong momentum on the daily and weekly, (Bullish) 3) We are nearing the top of a broadening formation created a few weeks back, (Slightly Bullish) 4) Finished green today with a healthy looking green candle (Bullish) With all of this in mind, I think that we now need to target 412-413 range sometime this week. There is really nothing stopping SPY from continuing to run other than the fact that it is in extended territory. For tomorrow my prediction is simple: I am slightly bullish, but understand that we can move hard in either direction tomorrow. Tomorrow's movement will be heavily influenced by 2 things: Whether we gap up or down during PM, and whether we break today's high or low first. If we break today's high first (Not including PM movement) then I think 412.91 is our target for tomorrow. If we break the low first, then I believe we could see somewhere in the 406.50-407.50 range. The 3rd scenario I can see happening is we take out today's high and then proceed to dump and take out today's low, forming an engulfing day. I think the first two scenarios are the most realistic, but they are all valid scenarios I could see happening tomorrow. Overall: Skeptically Bullish Watchlist + Bias: SHOP - 3-1 Daily: Bullish QQQ - 2-1 Daily: Neutral MSFT - 2-1 Daily: Neutral PYPL - 2-1 Daily and Weekly: Slightly Bullish DOCU - 2-1 Daily and 3-1-1 Weekly: Neutral Main Watch: SHOP and DOCU SHOP - 3-1 Daily with a huge gap that is partially filled to the upside. I am hoping to break to break today's high tomorrow and push higher. I think it has really good momentum to keep pushing higher. Would love to target 48.57 tomorrow. Will maybe play downside too, but mostly just focused on the upside move DOCU - This one still hasn't broken out of the inside week setup. it is now actively a 3-1-1-1, which is just unheard of for the weekly chart. Im open to playing either side. I think with this one being in a 2-1 daily, we will get to see which direction we will finally move in for the next few days/weeks. Considering swinging as well. Preferably want to play upside, but I will take what I can get. Yesterday's Main Watch: SQ - (Status:) Winner (Personally Trade?) Yes we opened under our put entry, but the play was still valid from open in my opinion. Cons from my trade peaked around 23% and I actually ended up taking a small loss because I was looking for a better entry to swing puts, but ended up not liking the swing setup, so I just took a small loss on my starter position + the extra cons I added when averaging down. Overall was in for about 40% of my target position size, and took about a 12% loss on that which translates to a roughly 5% loss had it been a normal position for me. I still count this as a winner for the list because it saw solid gains from a very readable entry. Had I been day trading and not looking for a swing entry, I would have had a different outcome, but at the end of the day, I had a plan and followed it, which is something I can't and won't be upset over. Weekly is still not broken out of, so SQ remains on my personal watchlist for the rest of the week. I wanna see what tomorrow holds for SQ before considering a new position. Watchlist Stats: 1/1 Spy Predictions 1/1 Main Watch Plays Top Winner: SQ (23%+) Personal Stats: 0/1 On Trades This Week Overall Green/Red: Red (extremely small). Early in the week. Can easily come back from today's small loss. Trade Smart Tomorrow!
AMEX:SPY
by Alanger17
QQQ Bullish Bias Continuation LONGQQQ has weathered federal action and the banking meltdown quite well. It has trended upward from a double-bottom pivot March 1 to March 13. The MACD has held steady without any bearish divergence from price action. Sell order blocks are lurking at 325. QQQ is trending above its anchored VWAP showing that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure. I will trade the QQQ with call options in TQQQ expiring Friday April 6th. Getting several of them will allow for partial position closures as the call values rise as a form of risk management.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by AwesomeAvani
NQ Bear TimeIts been a very eventful week. Tech has went on a massive run the past couple months and became the market leader again. I don't think this is sustainable in this global financial environment. Macro aside we had fomc today and based off the reaction (huge selling volume to end the day) I think we may have seen the highs on NQ today. The sell off caused a nasty bearish hammer candle with a huge wick upwards and closing at lows. This type of candle can signal distribution. On the hourly timeframe you can see very sizeable sell volume near NYSE close. Not a good sign for bolls imo. Could be wrong but we shall see. NEVER financial advice just a little trading journal. I may start posting my ideas more often again to see how my theories and insights play out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by EZmoney24
NQ - still (cautiously) bullish despite the volatilityDespite all the uncertainties and volatility in the market, the US indices especially Nasdaq has been resilient. Nasdaq has led the run up since the start of this year and as long as NQ continues to be in the lead among the 3 major indices (namely NQ, SPX an DJI), the market could remain overall bullish. The most recent "fearful" event (collapse of SVB) last week brought Nasdaq down briefly below it's 200 day MA but the reversal back up was just as quick once this problem was deemed contained. The new support is now established at 11700 (just slightly below the 50% fibonacci retracement of it's bullish AB swing, or 200 points (1.7%) below its 200 day MA @ 11900) The weekly chart painted a clearer view of it's bigger direction: A basing formation that has begun since hitting "the" low last October and a strong rally that ensued since the start of this year. Then a protracted 50% pullback of this rally in the past 6 weeks forming a potential "bull flag". A break out of this flag will be a good start that the upward momentum is continuing. Nasdaq first traded above the 200 day MA on 26 Jan and had retested this MA several times since (very briefly each time). This 200 day MA is hence still proving to be a support so far (though it has dipped briefly below that again last Friday on "panic"). As long as Nasdaq can continue to stay above the 200 day MA, then mid term trend is likely still up (worst case, the bull could be sluggish and choppy). Should FED raise interest rate again next week, then we could have another knee jerk sell off. However that could also mean that the economy isn't weak enough for Fed to want to stop raising the rates, it's a Goldilock situation. But let's see how the market reacts (once the knee jerk reaction, if any, begins to fade). The longer term bulls would be better off sitting tight or buying the dips unless we see a clear break below the 200 day MA. Short term trader will probably love this volatile market trading both ways. p/s SPX is now just under it's 200 day MA (red flag still), the coast will be clearer (for the bulls) if SPX could also start to have a close above this MA. Let's see. Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by Juliac
SPX500 - The Smallest Retrace & The First To GoI have to point out once again that, despite all the bearish fundamentals, market price action is simply not a bear market. You see this so clearly on SPX's monthly bars: During the worst of October, all the market was really doing was retracing to the two-month late 2020 orderblock that ultimately led to the 4,800 ATH. Price has since retraced and the markets at large don't like to dump, even on bad news. Even CPI coming in hot didn't lead to much of a dump. The Geopolitical Climate With China The most important factor when trading these markets is that you have to keep an eye on what's going on with China at all times. I've talked in my previous posts extensively and ad nauseum about how the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has killed a lot more people than the Chinese Communist Party and western establish media let on. But what this all points to is simply that the Party is in a weakened state. What the Party being in a weakened state means is that a number of geopolitical factions, most notably the western globalist (western Communist Party) bloc has its eyes on how to seize and take control of China as the evil regime falls. The way the globalists will do things is not to invade China, because the Chinese people and the world will not recognize a western occupation of the mainland. Instead, over the years, groups like the World Economic Forum and other globalist arms have, for a long period of time, been grooming certain Chinese nationals, who are themselves members of the Party, to make preparations for how to seize control of the country when Xi Jinping falls. The problem the globalists face is that they aspire to install a one world government. But to do that, they need the world's (formerly) largest population and oldest country, China. However, the existence of the CCP with its rogue, arrogant, and dominating nature makes this impossible, unless the globalists would like to make the CCP the center of the world government, which they obviously do not. Because they want to be the center of the world government. And so preparations have been in the works for years as to how to take control of China when the Party is gone. The problem for humanity is that China's 5,000 years of tradition and culture are critical for the future. Yet, everywhere the globalist faction goes you get a twisted, atheist, modernist culture that can't tell the difference between genders, is highly promiscuous, and serves in many ways as a force even worse than the CCP has been in its weakened state over the recent years. And so, this is the real threat: what the globalist faction will do when it feels the CCP is teetering on the edge. Anything is on the table, because a global crisis will be needed in advance. Environmental disasters, pandemics and plagues, war, problems with nuclear plants, social problems within certain countries, Project Bluebeam stuff, all are on the table. And all such risks are on the table at any time, and these problems are arranged to unfold when the markets are high, not low, so as to create an additional layer of pain and panic in both the business and civilian sectors. A layer of the crisis wherein everyone is losing a lot of money is important, because it hurts and causes a lot of damage, and the Party needs a significant and intense crisis in order to have the pretext needed to "save you" from as they install one world government, which is really, the "Ultimate Goal of Communism." So, be careful. Whatever you believe is your own business, but at least someone is willing to warn you of what is unfolding under your nose. The call On weekly bars you can see that the February FOMC pump came up just short of the September CPI gap surprise panic that led markets to the 2022 low of the year: What this should tell you is that no matter the bearish narrative prevailing or the bearish, scary impulse that may be coming, the SPX has not topped. Instead, I believe after we're finished being scary for a bit, we're going to see 4,500. Moreover, because I believe that Oil, Natural Gas, and even Silver are prone to go up in the shorterm, that the SPX's retrace is going to be the smallest, and it'll be the first of the indexes to go up. WTI Crude - Step 1) $88 --> Step 2) $58 Natural Gas? More Like Natural Go. 4-Handle Coming. Silver SI - A Simple Trendline and Levels Scalp A 200 point dump into the 3,800s is enough to make SPY calls expire worthless, enough to scare bulls, trap bears, and enough to give you a 15% upside for a run to 4,500. You need to fade the bear hype right now, but you also have to be careful about how and when you get in. That means utilizing ETFs, commons that compose the index, and calls that have a 3-6 month expiry, because things could take 30 or 45 days to really unfold and really breakout. But importantly, if you do see SPX 4,500 and 4,600, you have to check your enthusiasm. You might see a new ATH, but that ATH may serve to be a bump and run reversal that will seriously hurt you. And most critically, you need to focus your effort on improving your character, taking care of your family, and patching up whatever regrets you're carrying around. Because life is short. Human life is so short. Everyone is about to experience and understand again just how fragile human life really is. Be careful, friends.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
11
Earnings recession is becoming more apparentFollowing the FOMC’s rate hike, markets continued to rally yesterday until the closing bell when tech giants Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple reported their earnings. Bleak numbers poured cold water on a rally, and in after-market trading, Nasdaq 100 index fell more than 2.5%. However, this move quickly recovered, highlighting the market's growing fragility. With VIX near yearly lows and now evident earnings recession, we will seek a decline in volume accompanying the rising price to suggest a rally’s exhaustion. During the summer of 2022, we noted that declining corporate earnings and outlook downgrades in 3Q22 and 4Q22 would confirm our bearish thesis about the market progressing deeper into recession. With this being reflected in the data, we will pay very close attention to labor market data, which lags behind other indicators. To further confirm our bearish thesis, we want to see a pick-up in unemployment and small business bankruptcies, which will put the current mainstream narrative about “soft-landing” to the test (together with the FED not cutting rates). Alphabet - full-year 2022 results. Net income = $59.97 billion (vs. net income of $76.03 billion in 2021; -21.1% YoY) Operating income = $74.84 billion (vs. $78.71 billion in 2021; -4.9% YoY) Revenue = $282.83 billion (vs. $257.63 billion in 2021; +9.8% YoY) Alphabet disclosed that it expects to incur (in 1Q23) employee severance and related charges of $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion in relation to its layoffs of 12 000 people announced in January 2023. Additionally, it anticipates exit costs in regard to office space reductions of approximately $0.5 billion during that same quarter. Furthermore, the company expects a significant reduction in the depreciation of its equipment and servers throughout the entire year 2023. Amazon - full-year 2022 results. Net loss = $-2.7 billion (vs. net income of $33.4 billion in 2021; -108% YoY) Operating income = $12.2 billion (vs. $24.9 billion in 2021; -51% YoY) Net sales = $514 billion (vs. $469.8 billion in 2021; +9.4% YoY) Amazon saw a massive drop in net income (YoY) in 2022, from $33.4 billion to a net loss of $2.7 billion. The company expects its net sales to drop by more than 15% in 1Q23 (vs. the previous quarter) and suffer unfavorable impacts from exchange rates. Apple - 1st quarter FY2023 Net income = $29.98 billion (vs. $34.63 billion a year ago; -13.4%) Net sales = $117.2 billion (vs. $123.9 billion a year ago; -5.4% YoY) Operating income = $36.01 billion (vs. $41.48 billion a year ago; -13.2% YoY) Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. At the moment, the price deviated too far from its 20-day and 50-day SMAs, making a case for the retracement. A breakout below Support 1 will bolster the bearish odds in the short term. Contrarily, a breakout above Resistance 1 will be bullish. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of QQQ. The yellow arrow hints at bullish volume growth. A decline in volume accompanying the rising price will hint at declining momentum and potential trend reversal. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tradersweekly
44