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SPY Daily Modeling turns BEARISH (RISK-OFF). PAY ATTENTIONMy advanced modeling and TV scripts recently turned BEARISH on the Daily SPY. This means the markets have moved into a RISK-OFF mode - likely preparing for additional downside trending. While the Weekly modeling continues to stay BULLISH, I'm writing this update to warn my followers that both the Rotational Modeling and the TT-3MACD strategies have turned BEARISH on the SPY. My US real Estate Modeling shows an incredible bout of price weakness, seller desperation, and broad SHOCK taking place for US Real Estate. This combined Real Estate and US stock market shock could lead to an incredible downside price trend if a credit/banking collapse unfolds (much like 2008-09). You have been warned. Follow my research. Move a good chunk of your capital away from risks. This is now a much more violent market event that could unfold in the near future. The Fed MUST address the extended price collapse that is currently gripping the US/Global markets. Things could turn UGLY very quickly if finance/banking/credit seizes up. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
1
MENT SPY DayTrader Page Update (2-22-23)I've been working on the TT-3MACD PineScript update for about 4+ days. It seems every time I make a breakthrough, there is more to attempt to build into it. PineScipt seems pretty cool so far. Documentation is great - but it is a process of learning how the engine processes things. My goal is to build a TEACHABLE solution for my followers - allowing them to make their own decisions based on my research and other strategies. Ideally - it is about teaching others when and how to trust their own intuitions. This video update shows you the FOUR components of my strategy so far: - The TT-3MACD Strategy (including entries/targets/reversals) - Running on a Heiken-Ashi chart - The Standard Candlestick chart - running the Linear Regression tool - The 3D Wave indicator - The Donchian Ribbon Indicator. Using these in combination with Fibonacci price theory (Higher Highs/Lows in an UPTREND - Lower Highs/Lows in a DOWNTREND) - should be just about everything any SPY Daytrader could want to learn to get started. It really is THIS SIMPLE. The only other thing you need to learn is position sizing techniques. In other words, when to be more aggressive and when to be patient (trading smaller position sizes). Follow my research and let's see if we can get all of my followers into a better place to start profiting from SPY price swings. I will post another update/video when I publish the MENT TT-3MACD strategy for all to use.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
5-3-5 or 3-3-5 corrective? It appears we have a 5-3-5 "zig zag" corrective wave down to the QE-era trendlines .( TLs ) The idea is invalid if it breaks out of the pitchfork trigger line. There are only 3 types of corrective waves, 5-3-5, 3-3-5 & 3-3-3-3-3. Since this correction started with a 5 wave down it should follow the 5-3-5 pattern. However, there's also a decent chance the 3 wave is the first leg of a 3-3-5 "flat" corrective wave. Still a short here for 3 waves down at least. Plotted some scenarios in yellow. 3-3-5 would obey the inside pitchfork more, which will be watched closely near the fibs and bottom. Technical Analysis: We've had 3 weeks of resistance and failed the YTD daily chart bull TL. Volume dropped off sharply near the top indicating reversal. Weekly Stoch is rolling over. Failed the daily linear regression curve shown in orange. Anytime it crosses under the reg curve seems to be a safe short swing for 2+ weeks out. Sometimes it chops sideways for a week or so after first crossing under from a bull run. However, during the bear market it has always continued further down after first break. If it does violate this trend, then it's an indication the bear market really is over. Fundamental analysis: -DXY had a healthy bounce off the 50% retrace and broke the bear trend. It's looking to test 110 next. It's been 5 months of selling, mostly exacerbated by $80T in FX swaps that got trapped and capitulated. That's mostly settled now. -Oil and NG both seem to have made support near trend lows. Oil's 20+yr fork median is around $70 and it's been ranging 70-80. NG is under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and under the years long VAL. Both look like good investments. near the bottom of the current ranges. -Some food commodities are still rising in price YTD, such as: eggs and egg products; coffee ; cocoa , & sugar -Housing prices have dropped over 10% since the Summer and it could snowball into a bigger problem that forces people to finance at higher rates. Mortgage Backed Securities look like they're taking another leg down. Meanwhile personal Savings are near all-time lows and credit card delinquency is nearing ATHs. Along with slowing growth, layoffs and poor guidance; it sure sounds like a recession! -CPI from the previous month was revised up then both CPI and PPI came in hot. Then Bullard mentioned 50bps rates still being on the table, which would indicate a misstep and panic on the Fed's part if that happens. The market currently has the terminal rate of 5.25% priced in, but that obviously isn't happening anymore. I would expect 6% terminal rate if they keep 25bps hikes extended or 7% if they go back to 50bps. As the market slowly realizes the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away, they will panic and finally capitulate. It most likely bottoms around Sept Trip Witch if we get 50bps. Maybe late spring early Summer if just a few 25bps extensions.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Nicklaus68
The opposite Side Of A Wave-5 Rally - Plan BI received a question from someone watching my videos/research. The question was, "what is the downside risk for the markets if my bullish resolution fails". So, I created this video. This explains why the downside risks appear to be less than 35% right now compared to a 65% to 75% upside price resolution. Still, using Elliot Wave, we can't be 100% confident in the true future of price structure or wave structure. All we can rely upon is Fibonacci Price Theory which tells us if price is currently Bullish or Bearish. Right now, on this weekly chart, Fibonacci Price Theory suggests a bullish price trend is in place and recent Unique Low levels are the final defense of support (near $348). Follow along to better understand how I see/use Fibonacci Price Theory in all of my research as a method of letting price tell me what to expect in the future. The one other thing I would like to add is all previous market collapse events have aligned with cataclysmic economic events (9/11, Global Banking Crisis, Foreign Economic Crisis, Isolated Credit Risks). Without some cataclysmic economic event happening, it is very unlikely that US markets would contract extensively without some impulse event. So keep that in mind as we move forward. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY Cycle Patterns: Resolving volatility into March 2023This example video will help you understand how I use my predictive SPY Cycle Patterns in combination with traditional TA (Fibonacci and others) to prepare/plan for GAPS, trends, and opportunities for trading through the week. I'm a strong believer that you don't need to trade every minor trend. Taking 2~4 good trades a week across one or two symbols is all that is required to be able to generate 50% to 100% profit every week (using options). Just last week one of my friends used my SPY Cycle Patterns (and his own skills) to make over 700% ROI. It does happen. Watch this video. Next week will be very volatile in my opinion. Once we clear the upper resistance level, we should continue to trend up to $435 or higher. The burst of volatility will likely make for great trade setups - if you know what you are doing. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY Example Setup For DaytradersHere is an example dual-chart setup for SPY daytraders. I set this up to help my followers understand how to perceive price action as we attempt to transition through the $405 SPY Support level. If my analysis is correct, we'll see a fairly strong reversion (upside) price trend as long as the $404~405 level holds. This chart includes a number of TradingView PUBLIC SCRIPTS and a dual-chart layout. Both Heiken-Ashi and traditional Candlestick charts are used. Learn to better TIME/ENTER your trades and learn to use price structure/Fibonacci retracements to develop target levels. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
1
2/16 SPY Cycle Patterns, Fib, Flagging - Volatility into a RALLYAre you following my SPY Cycle Patterns yet? If not, here is a list of the SPY Cycle Patterns for this week and beyond... 2/6/2023 2/7/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/8/2023 Harami-Inside 2/9/2023 CRUSH 2/10/2023 GAP Potential 2/11/2023 GAP Potential 2/12/2023 GAP-Reversal 2/13/2023 Rotation 2/14/2023 Top/Resistance21 2/15/2023 Consol-210 2/16/2023 Inside-Breakaway 2/17/2023 Break-Away 2/18/2023 Carryover 2/19/2023 CRUSH 2/20/2023 Flat-Down 2/21/2023 POP 2/22/2023 2/23/2023 BaseRally301 2/24/2023 Harami-Inside 2/25/2023 CRUSH 2/26/2023 Bottom-004 Why are these so important? Because these SPY Cycle patterns help you understand how to trade intraday price swings and what to expect every day - going out weeks and months in advance of today's trading activity. See the "BaseRally301" on 2/23 - that means the SPY should attempt to setup a base/bottom within the 48 hours spanning 2/23. See the 2/25 CRUSH leading to the 2/26 BOTTOM - that means the SPY may be extremely volatile while attempting to setup/confirm the 2/23 bottom Today and tomorrow are calling for an Inside-Breakaway & a Breakaway. My research suggests we may see a broader downside price trend establishing a Wave-D Flagging setup (near $405) in the SPY before we move into the Rally/Bottom phase near 2/23. Watch my video and learn how you can use my research to become a better intraday/swing trader.
AMEX:SPY
by BradMatheny
1
Stay cautious of a PEAK/TOP in the markets today.My SPY Cycle Patterns suggest the markets will establish a PEAK/TOP today - then trend downward. I created this video to help my followers stay aware of the short-term nature of price in a reactionary price trend - like today. If you are chasing this rally, stay very cautious of risks related to my SPY cycle patterns. Overall, I expect the markets to peak, stall, then trend downward over the next 48 hours. Take quick trades with targeted profit targets. This is not a friendly market uptrend in my opinion. I believe the $408 level is a likely downside price target for the SPY by Thursday. Follow my research
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
4
nasdaq 4 hour : if you have old sell you must you must hedge your old sell in 12300 area ,,,nasdaq after touch fibo61% can flyup to 13300 (see green fibo 161% on chart) 13300 is my upper target scenario 2 = if big bad news come and nasdaq break big trendline and EMA200 daily (orange line) , it can go downer to 11600 , we must buy nasdaq above green arrow and hold them 10 day to new high =13300 prediction by me = in next 3 year we have bull market so i advice 90% looking for buy in deep and hold it to high good luck
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by ramin_trader2006
1
Tesla TSLA - The Bottom Is In, But It's Still BearishTesla has collapsed for five straight months, much to the delight of everyone who hates Elon Musk. To tell you the truth, I think Musk is something of a combination between a psyop, a Fabian, and a guy with some conservative values who wants to protect the happy life he has, but am not particularly a fan of his and don't trust him. Regardless, the Mastodon socialists, the Reddit Marxists, and much of the supposed "liberals" just hate the guy because he purged the pro-child grooming pro-human trafficking pro-censorship communist old guard when he bought Twitter. The way life under Communist Party rule works is this: 1. If the Party says you're good, you're good 2. If the Party says you're bad, you're bad 3. The Party is Great, Glorious, and Correct, and is always right Thus, it really is self evident that it is time for mankind to sober up and eliminate the Chinese Communist Party's things from the areas outside of Mainland China. The Chinese people will soon deal with the CCP inside the Mainland, and Xi and the Party will be gone overnight. The reason I bring the above up is not to get political or soapbox, but to point out to readers that when you get yourself caught up in these campaigns, you are going to bottom short and lose money because your vision is clouded and you're listening to a political campaign and not a professional. I've seen so many people calling for $80 TSLA or for Tesla to go the way of Enron and collapse to zero in the next few months that it's actually both alarming and amusing at the same time. The more your vision is clouded by prejudice as a trader the more likely you are to be one of those guys on r/WallStreetBets posting his 6 figure account that went busto buying $200k worth of short term $25 call options on Peloton, lol. Black swan risks: Because of the situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party as it faces the disaster of the Wuhan Pneumonia epidemic, Tesla and its Shanghai Gigafactory faces significant risk that could cause any successful long trade to endure a market-open gap down exceeding 20%. For the reality is that the CCP has always been lying and covering up the pandemic situation. All its data and all its narrative are bogus. Really, the epicenter of COVID and a country of 1.5 billion people is posting positive case counts and death counts 95-99% lower than literally every single other country on the entire planet?! The Party did the same thing during the 2003 SARS epidemic and yet nobody seems to have learned to not trust what that murderous regime says or the numbers it reports. But you can't do anything for a fool who believes in the Marxist-Leninist atheism and evolution hoax and actually wants the genocidal CCP Red Dynasty in the first place. The problem for Tesla is the Shanghai Gigafactory seated in Babylon is "our main export hub, supplying vehicles to most markets outside of North America," according to the Q3 earnings Shareholders Deck . The Babylon Gigafactory has the capacity for three times as many units as Berlin and Texas, and even exceeds California's production capacity. This is significant for longs because when the Communist Party falls, 6:00 PM Beijing time is 7:00 AM New York Time, and you won't like getting caught in the 1,000 point SPX gap down that the regime's collapse causes and what Wall Street does during that session as it runs for its life when everyone is caught off guard like they were when the USSR fell. In my opinion, $108 in the last week of December was Tesla's bottom, evidenced by bounce back to $124 that happened Thursday and the strong weekly close to end the year. However, for long-term Tesla bulls, this is a very bearish indicator, as evidenced on the monthly chart: For long term bulls, you really do not want a stock to break a major 2-year-old bullish order block, which is exactly what Tesla did. It should maintain it and sharply reverse if there's to truly be another leg up. There's a direct precedent for this principle on the Nasdaq NQ CME Futures, which did exactly this in March, had an impotent bounce, and has since not been bullish at all. Tech has just been a slaughter house with the exception a few days like November CPI. Tesla gives you some greater clarity on the weekly candles: What's strange about Tesla's price action is: The triple top at $315 before it started dumping. This becomes a big target on a reversal. The $414.50 ATH. Yes, this was pre-splits, but remember Elon is the guy who paid $5 4.20 a share for Twitter. Breakaway gap/liquidity void at $263.55. These also become targets once the algo and its MM have achieved their downside objectives. In my opinion, Tesla on the hourly looks like a pretty solid reversal with the gap between $113 and $118 potentially being a breakaway gap. Another big factor to consider is that the TSLL 1.5x leveraged bull ETF has fallen from $27~ to $6 during this bear run. A very likely and rational target for this to retrace to when it does go in the other direction is $10. This is a lot of upside and makes for a heck of a trade. TSLL also traded at double its average volume literally three times last week, with 15 million shares being traded on Dec. 29. Someone had to be the buyer on those trades and they didn't buy so it can go to $4 so easily. So here's some potential scenarios: 1. Tesla is extremely bearish but will retrace anyways. If this is the case then $160 is where it should go and it should get held back at the last green daily candle that peaked at $160.93. Either way, this is a pretty good long from the $120s. 2. Tesla has achieved its downside objective and MMs will target short seller funds' buy stops This particular outcome I regard with a high degree of probability. If so, $330 is exactly where it will go before it will die. This is an amazing long. 3. Nasdaq is about to bounce to 15,000 and Tesla follows a huge bear market rally to perform a bump and run reversal to $420.20 I have reservations about the realism of this outcome, but I definitely believe it's a significant possibility between now and April if a genuine 2008-style market crash is en route for humanity in 2023. Things that won't happen: Tesla will not continue on to $500 with a new leg up. Frankly speaking, we're standing at the end of the good times. It's up to you what you believe. One thing I know is that people don't believe in anything until they see it, and then they FOMO or get scared and give themselves regrets. But what I want to say to all of you is: if you want a future you have to "practice social distancing" and "hand sanitizing" with the Chinese Communist Party and all of that Marxist atheism and evolution junk. You need to return to tradition and come to understand that it's no less than the Divine side of the Cosmos our Earth is seated and rotating in that brings a future. The Chinese Communist Party is a demon that was arranged to destroy the human race. Whoever can't see this are the greatest morons.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by LordWrymouth
13