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Part 2 - Fibonacci Price Theory on SPY 60 Min (Deeper we go)After 25+ years of research, study, and application of some of the most incredible trading strategies - I'm sharing one of the MOST IMPORTANT structural price theories with all of you... The Fibonacci Price Theory. The primary rule of the Fibonacci Price Theory is: Price is ALWAYS seeking NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS. Price is never NOT attempting to reach NEW HIGHS or NEW LOWS. Let that sink in for a minute. If you knew price was always attempting to establish a trend, or continue a trend.. how would that change your trading/investing tactics? What if I showed you how I use Fibonacci Price Theory? And how YOU can use it to further your own trading skills? Here you go, A 60 minute SPY chart where I'm applying the basics of Fibonacci Price Theory to the current market price rally. If you've ever wanted to learn the TRUE CONSTRUCT of price - this is it. All other technical analysis techniques (Elliot Wave, Indicators, & others) are constructed from PRICE. Price is the Ultimate Indicator. Pay attention and follow my research.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by BradMatheny
Learning Fibonacci Price Theory - MUST WATCHEven though I got cut off after about 25 minutes, I'm sharing this with all of you to teach you how to use one fo the most important PRICE STRUCTURE features for any chart Fibonacci Price Theory. The consensus of all TA is that PRICE tells us everything. Fibonacci Price Theory is the REAL DEAL. Use it on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 60 minute, or Daily - ANY TIME-FRAME Use it in conjunction with other TA/Indicators. Use it with Elliot Wave analysis. USE IT. My experience is that all indicators/theories/strategies have strengths/weaknesses. If you are not aware of them (yet) - pay attention. Follow my research and I'll continue to try to share tidbits of advanced TA/Fibonacci with you. I created this to help my followers/friends learn one of the most critical price structure components of my own research. I see all price charts in the manner I've illustrated in this video. After more than 15 years of applied Fibonacci Price Theory/Structure - I can't help but NOT see price as "Fibonacci Fractals". Hope this helps.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by BradMatheny
SPY Measure Move (Pause) Video Update - Rally To $421 PendingHere is a video update for my followers. This video is in support of the recent SPY updates I've shared over the past few days. Follow my research. Learn how my analysis skills can help you prepare for the biggest price swings. These are not the same markets as 2008 & 2000. Learn to adapt to price trends and become a better trader. I'm trying to teach you to use the techniques I've learned over the past 25+ years to hone your own decision-making skills. Pay attention.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It LastsThe period of market activity following the November CPI pump has been both a choppy grind and hard to get a handle on. I had personally believed that the market makers would run 3,700 long ago, but that we wouldn't set new lows. Turns out, after much deliberation, they ran 4,150 instead and dumped it back to 3,800 but still haven't taken 3,700. When trading, anyone who genuinely "knows" what is going to happen also isn't allowed to speak to the public. There are contracts binding their mouths with big penalties for violation. Ergo, literally all of us who are trying to do this are making a best-basis effort to anticipate what's going on and what's going to happen with limited information available. What this means is that to increase your accuracy and avoid blowing yourself up, you have to continually revaluate what you think is going to happen on the basis of what is actually happening in front of you. This is an important ability to build, but there's a lot of inner obstacles. You can only do it via determined and diligent mental and emotional self cultivation and improvement. All on its own the last 45 days of price action tells us something. The December FOMC rendezvous with the September CPI dump formed a double top where big, big fund positions selling short will be carrying market buy orders to exit their positions as part of their risk model because "resistance was broken." In terms of the market retracing and coming back to take out that level, this doesn't always work out, as seen on both Tesla at $315 and WTI Crude at $93. But, when combined with this three week period of "bear flagging" (it's just consolidation) and, as we saw on Friday with an unwillingness to trade lower even on Non-Farm Payroll day, arguably the third most volatile news driver of the month behind CPI and FOMC, it tells us more. Looking at daily candles, The fact that the market makers appear to want to trade higher without trading just a little bit lower to take the giant fund sell stops at 3,700 indicates to me that the biggest cowboys are actually long and the intention is to keep selling. Now, you're probably used to thinking, "Doesn't the price go down when big money is selling? Doesn't it go up when they're buying?" The answer to that is yes, but no. Think about it: if the banks were to sell low and buy high and then buy high and sell low, like you do, wouldn't there be a 2008 financial crisis all the time? Wouldn't they also blow their accounts like you do? Instead, although it takes a lot of money to buy and sell the orders planted along the way, the reality is that big funds and banks are selling on green and buying on red. Selling on green and buying on red. I've heard if you work at a trading desk and you buy on green and sell on red you'll quickly find yourself holding a filing box on the sidewalk waiting for the Uber to take you back to your apartment. This is really worth thinking about. Looking at monthly bars, last January was a 600 point nuclear month. The algorithms, although they do perform fractals on a consistent basis, generally, do not like to repeat themselves in such an obvious way. Ergo, expecting January '23 to be a big nuclear month may be a bit of an error in judgment. I think everyone now understands that the global economy is in big trouble, the living environment is in trouble, and on top of that the central banks aren't in the mood to run a bailout or a rate cut to save markets from crashing. And yet, they don't crash. That's because it's the same idea as the blade of a guillotine. Before you drop the hammer and decapitate your victim, you first slowly pull the rope so the knife is hanging high over head. "The bigger they are, the harder they fall." I believe that what we're about to see happen is SPX 4,230. There's a gap conveniently placed right above the double top from before September CPI. Both this and the late December pivot @ 3,79x are both very obvious on weekly candles. Once we get there and everyone has turned bullish again and forgotten where they are in the diagram, then it's time to start looking seriously at getting risk off and buying puts. Once the calamity really starts to unfold, you aren't going to see consolidation like this and we're not likely to get big bounces along the way. The kind of 200 points down one day 200 points up the next saw during COVID hysteria also isn't likely to unfold. It's just a question of what the catalyst will be. And that catalyst may very well come in the form of "China." I say "China" because although it may unfold in the nation of China, the issue is the Chinese Communist Party. You really have to separate that rogue regime from "the Chinese people" and "the Chinese nation." China is being absolutely sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia. The pandemic situation there is not like the COVID pseudo-pandemic we saw in North America. And this situation has been true for the better part of 3 years. Although the CCP covers it up and hides the data, just like they did during 2003 SARS, nobody seems to have learned their lesson that the regime is a chronic liar. Or at least, when it comes to the topic they exercise "Three Monkeys." One day that isn't all that far away, Xi Jinping and the Party will really be unable to contain reality any longer. In the same way that a forest fire that's absolutely out of control and absolutely raging will eventually roll towards the city (See 2016 Fort McMurray wildfire) and start smashing up industry, people, lives, and the regime for real. The warnings signs of this will be kept quiet by western media until it can't be hidden any longer. So you likely won't get much notice besides that prices stay high while volume drops and the USD and VIX start going on a "weird" moon mission. When it starts, you'll be greeted by unprecedented Monday morning breakaway gap downs that never recover. Ultimately, what I want to say to everyone who reads this is that the tribulation won't be limited to China's borders and will quickly become international. It will be the kind of thing that global governments cannot keep a handle on, either, and the problem will concern more than your stock portfolio. To evade and escape the disaster, it's absolutely critical that you do your part to oppose, reject, and stop supporting the Chinese Communist Party and all the Marxist-Leninist, socialist things it has spread around the world during the last 23 years via the United Front Work Department. It's a choice you both have to make, and one you'll be forced to honour by history.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
3
SPY Update (60 Min) - Rally Day Pause ExpectedEven though my SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a RALLY day, I see the SPY has extended to an upper resistance channel (near $414.80) and may pause/slide sideways/downward a bit today. I do expect support near $412.30 to act as a floor for any contraction. I would expect the SPY to hold above $412.30 and attempt to rally higher IF this price level is tagged today. Overall, if we see a rally above $415 today - the SPY will likely extend the rally phase. Possibly target $421 to $427. The Fed unleashed a wave of RALLY (Risk-On) for many investors. My advice - play this move safely right now. Although it looks very promising, I still believe 2023 will stay very congested until Q3:2023. Then, we may see a moderate MELT-UP extend to new all-time highs again. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Wick Differential is an important part of target here in NQNQ was down -341 for the week as soon as the daily balance held on the day for NQ which was -60 and as soon as NQ went to +61 the obvious target was +341 and the high of the day was +347 for the bears who wanted to scalp on the puts this area was the best to short and around this level at 3:45 and gave a nice +3 point down move on the QQQs so how will I play this tomorrow I will only want to be long above +341 if NQ trades above 12553 will be long if it opens below it you can enter with a stop at 12553 this is the weekly balance tilt and if this balance tilt holds we can go up another 341+ by Friday minimum move will be half of +341 so +170 if the NQ does not take out +341 balance tilt in the first 10 minutes of tomorrows open it can go down -170 tomorrow before resuming the move up
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by GokselSecilmis
Will this week reveal an ongoing earnings recession?On 5th January 2023, we noted that the breakout above the upper bound of the descending channel would be bullish for the Nasdaq 100 index in the short term. Quickly after that, NQ1! broke above the resistance and embarked on the longest winning streak since November 2021. This recent move-up has been accompanied by market euphoria and overly bullish calls. Many investors are already dismissing the prospect of recession in 2023 and thinking the bear market is over. However, these calls are likely to turn out to be premature. Therefore, we will pay close attention to earnings reports from various companies. We will seek a decline in corporate profits to confirm our bearish thesis (beyond the short term). In addition to that, we will look for downgrades in future outlook and warnings over the slowing economy. As a result, we expect reality to creep back into the market and drag it lower over time. Accordingly, we maintain our 2023 price target for NQ1! at $10 000. Big names reporting their earnings this week: Microsoft J&J Verizon Lockheed MartinRaytheon Technologies General Electrics Tesla AT&T IBM Boeing General Dynamics Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the resistance, followed by the longest winning streak since November 2021. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1! and two simple moving averages. We would like to see the index break below the 50-day SMA to support a bearish thesis. Contrarily, we would like to see the price hold above the 50-day SMA to support a bullish continuation of the rally. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
28
If SPY Breaks Above $410 - we could see $420+ very quicklyBreaking above the $410 resistance level could be a very big sign that bullish price trending is building momentum. Ultimately, I don't believe the SPY has enough momentum to get above $440~450 in 2023 - but I could be wrong. I do believe we will move into a bout of sideways congestion after Q1:2023 - and slide into a period of complacency. Near the start of Q3:2023, I believe we will see the bullish price trend resume - likely starting a push towards new all-time-highs again. We are certainly living in interesting times. If you are not following my research - please take a minute to review my posts/comments. Here we go.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY COVID Correlation - 119pt BOTTOMI just noticed this (should have seen it earlier). In the midst of a GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, the SPY fell a little over 119 points before bottoming. My interpretation of this move is that traders/investors suddenly realized the US/Global markets would continue to function - even in the midst of a global lockdown. Now, fast-forward to 2022. Hey, guess what. The range from the peak in early 2022 to the bottom in October 2022 was just a little over 119 pts. Correlation or coincidence? Can we try to equate this -119pt contraction to a global crisis event (like COVID) - where the entire globe moved into LOCKDOWN?... Um. NO. Are we seeing global financial conditions tighten as central banks raise rates? You bet. If this the end of the move? I'm not sure, but it would appear to be lacking any global crisis event - we could have already seen the low/bottom in October 2022. I have a funny feeling the -119 price contraction will come into play in the near future. Are you following my research yet?
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from VXN we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 25.01%, equal to last week. This can be translated in +/- 3.47% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 12640 BOT: 11788 The probability to break this channel(aka the close of the weekly is going to end up either above/below this channel) is at If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the VXN( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 84% according to the last 20 years of data 100% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 87% instead) So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 78% to touch the previous weekly high 26% to touch the previous weekly low At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: +53% Bullish Trend D Timeframe: +66% Bullish Trend W Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 3.37% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 3.4% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
2
nasdaq daily technical say : fibo 161% 13333 is nasdaq target for short term nasdaq want touch daily chart fibo 61% =12500 see blue fibo in left side (after sell pinbar on higher time frame we can pick low size sell with Sl on pinbar high,ok?) then it must pullback aand touch breaked trendline still i advice 90% looking for buy in deep (after pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart come ) and hold it 7-8 day to new high wonderful = see COT data (big banks net open orders,they on sell !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!? what is bad scenario ? if red trendline break nasdaq can crash to 10.000 area (fibo 161% exactly 9700 if you have old sells against my last 3 month analyse= 1-if you are near margin call,you must put hedge buystop on last high(friday high) and never close that buy,,,wait and in next low close sells frist then wait for next high and close buy understand? if you close buy frist you will 0.00 2-if you are safe and your size is low,,,wait 20-30 day for above green arrow in 11900 ,close all sell and pick buy and hold30-40 day to high wish you win my friends , think 1 month about this secret = stable profit secret is simple 1- stand on very very low size and fix size and very low levrage (max 1-20) big levrage =big size = margincall 2- always put Sl on last high,low ,,,eat SL not bad show pro trader high control on mind and powerfull skill , new traders want eat only TP and cant eat SL = margincall www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by ramin_trader2006
Nasdaq NQ - Unpopular Opinion #2,118: 14,000 is ComingEverywhere I look I hear the narrative that we should be making new lows and everyone should be dumping because the Federal Reserve won't pivot and because the inflation keeps going up. Yet, at the same time that they make that argument, they completely ignore what the Dow Jones did in October, which was no less than a 4,300 point rally forming an outside bar. Dow has always been the weakest index. It fell farther during Coronavirus Disease 2019 hysteria. It rallied less during the greatest bull market of all time. It dumped more during this year's corrections. Yet, the Nasdaq and the SPX have lagged it, and lagged it hard, during last month's 2022 Low of the Year recovery. This should have any bull's interest piqued, and yet, because prices are low, they're not. People just want to get short. Everyone is telling you to look below October's low. Sometimes I think to myself that people actually like buying high and selling low, if only because they're just very attached to "seeing" and "confirmation." Ordinary people all follow this idea that "I won't believe what I don't see" and are completely unwilling to exercise even a modicum faith. It's fundamentally irrational. Yet, if you never change this deficiency, you will never be able to leave the bottom of the Cosmos and the bottom of life. The whales will always eat you, for you will always be plankton. As with all fractals, take a step back and look at the wider horizon. Nasdaq would have to fall another 10% from its October LOY to bounce off the pre-COVID highs, something which that pesky Dow already did in June. Not only that, but Nasdaq left two really significant areas of low volume on its way down this year. One of those areas just happens to be right above the August bear market rally highs. Taking a look at the weekly, we can see that for six straight weeks, Nasdaq trades under equilibrium for the total COVID-panic <--> all time high range. When people who are trading billion dollar position sizes take a look at this phenomenon, they're looking to get long, but hedging short. Unlike retail, who wants to buy puts thinking that 6,000 will come on CPI Thursday. On the daily, we can see that there's a lot of manipulation around this trendline superstition. "Meh June low trendline support has become resistance. This is going down!" is what every retail trader has been Pavlov's Dogged into believing and thinking. Nasdaq tends to be the most wild of the indexes. If Nasdaq had have traded like the Dow just did, it would have traded to 13,000 points. Assuming that SPX and Nasdaq follow in the footsteps of Dow in this bear market rally, and don't kid yourself, Friday's price action should indicate to you that we're going higher, not heading for new lows, Nasdaq is likely to be more insane than the Dow, and very likely to take out the August bear market high. While all and all I believe you're looking at a pending 30% rally, from where we stand now, you have 1,000 points to gain being long just to take out the October equal highs. This is enough to formulate trades with and make some good money on without having to take on a lot of risk. Specifically, some of the key (and not-so key) tech stocks are set up to go totally rocketship. At least in my opinion: AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom & META Facebook/Meta - Too Much Bear, Not Enough Bull & BBIG Vimco Ventures - A Classic Triangle Pump Trade carefully. When the Chinese Communist Party falls, it will happen while the US equities market is closed. Indexes will gap down 20% and stocks will gap down 50%. There won't be a recovery because every single bank will be completely risk off. Almost all of Wall Street has dirty hands providing financial "blood transfusions" to the most evil and murderous regime in all of human history, one which despite having killed many times more people than Hitler, and having perpetrated the organ harvesting persecution of Falun Gong practitioners, has not only remained in power for more than 100 years, but it and its Marxist-Leninism is supported by virtually every government and its people in the whole world. A lot of people, institutions, governments, and companies will run for their lives the day that Xi Jinping throws the Party away like Gorbachev threw the USSR away, because the nature of having a closet full of skeletons is that once sunlight is cast upon those unprecedented sins, the game ends in Checkmate. "What an ordinary person believes can happen and what is actually happening are always two totally different things." -Lord Wrymouth
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by LordWrymouth
9
W for the Win QQQOk I waited for this and really doubt it would pan out. We have a W pattern in the brink of a breakout. Now, lets take the political spectrum. We are not in the climate for expansion after the dwarf star called the stimulus pack from 2020. Even if it was not a recession it is hard to be bullish. So lets get to it Bullish View - Earnings report was interesting. There was very little that showed stock weakness including the massive move by Tesla. I can see $300 level being a big barrier from getting the W pattern to play out. Be vigilant that it can turn back around as quick as it ran up. Bearish View - Lets be serious... how this run up still here? Being below the 0 line in the weekly does not bold well for enthusiasm to take this to 300, let alone the measured move of 310. Look for reversal patterns and exhaustion. Time to take this down, been months since a new low was formed.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by JDTheGreat
NASDAQ: my view for Intraday and SwingHi Traders, This is my view for this week on NASDAQ I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are. Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected. I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view. Pit DISCLAIMER: Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice. ———————————
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by kitchen_trading
1
MNQ struggling to break resistance. Launchpad setting upIf you trade the MICROS, like me, then you'll want to be cautiously aware of a key Flag/APEX pattern setting up in the MNQ. Any breakout above the PURPLE resistance channel may prompt a strong upside price rally after February 12th or so. Pay attention to the volatility over the next 10+ days as the ES/NQ/YM are likely to struggle and become wildly volatile as price attempts to break free of the downward trend channels. If you have not been following my research, please check out my other TradingView posts and other resources. The next 5+ years are going to be very surprising for traders/investors. Get ready for a Wave-5 rally.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY New High - likely headed higher.Are you following my research yet? Check out my SPY Cycle Patterns and decide for yourself if my predictions are accurate: SPY Cycle Patterns for this week: 1/15/2023 GAP Potential 1/16/2023 GAP-Reversal 1/17/2023 Breakdown201 1/18/2023 POP 1/19/2023 1/20/2023 BaseRally301 1/21/2023 Break-Away 1/22/2023 Rally-111 1/23/2023 Carryover 1/24/2023 Inside-Breakaway 1/25/2023 Harami-Inside 1/26/2023 CRUSH 1/27/2023 Rev-Rally Now, using traditional Fibonacci price modeling, we can see the recent support level held and a New High was reached. This indicates the SPY will likely attempt a bit of consolidation/rotation over the next 4+ days, but will likely rally even higher in early Feb. Follow my research. It's simple and easy to follow.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
NQ/MNQ Futures Reaction AreasOn this chart are the reaction areas for the NQ, MNQ, NDX at least for the first part of the week. I wanted to release this before the Sunday open because it might help for the overnight session. All levels or areas have short descriptions. I published this on a 30m chart (structure) because it really provides a good mix between my standard intraday (5m) timeframe and the 60m golden timeframe. What is clear here is the zone between 12,000 - 12,9000 doesn't provide many high-probability reaction areas. As usual, the focus for the week should be momentum and how well that is being held up, especially given the close on Friday. It was clear the market wanted to recapture the weekly open and it did just that. Any downward move has to find support at some key reaction zone; otherwise, sentiment will shift against a continued upside move. 11,100 or so, really that key battle zone. If the price gets here and how it reacts will be key. Watching how the 60m momentum and bias hold LONG will be key going into the first few days of this trading week. As far as known news events, Thursday is the big day. So as the week develops, plotting where Thursday wants to test and close will be key. I'll update this idea as we go along this week.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RexDogActual
Aspects to Retail to Market Maker Trading Alignment Inventory management for market makers is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot. Market makers need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market. When a market maker holds a large position in a security or derivative, it must be able to convert that position into cash quickly and at a stable price in order to meet its obligations. This is particularly important in situations where the market maker needs to meet margin requirements or respond to unexpected market movements. As a result, market makers typically use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations. This includes monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative. In summary, market makers' inventory management is generally relative to the amount of contracts that can be liquidated for cash on spot, they need to ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including the potential need to buy or sell securities or derivatives to provide liquidity to the market. Market makers use a variety of techniques to manage their inventory and ensure that they have enough cash available to meet their obligations, including monitoring the market conditions, adjusting the bid and ask prices, and using hedging strategies to reduce the risk of holding a large position in a security or derivative. .... and Im bullish until the Market suggest otherwise. For Friday At least.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SolidWetFX
2