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SPY Cycle Patterns For Thanksgiving Week - Sideways Melt-UpHere you go. This week I expect the markets to melt upward with a couple of bottom/momentum bottom patterns as well as holiday trading liquidity. This week may see some volatile price swings, but overall I believe the US markets will continue to melt upward. As we near the end of the year, I expect some traders to try to pull out of positions (anchoring in tax losses) and repositioning early in 2023. Enjoy your holidays with family/friends. Follow my research if you are looking for more detailed analysis of the US/Global markets.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
QQQ - Potential top for the rally + new price targetsOver the past few days, we hinted at several warning signs on Nasdaq's continuous futures chart. Since the index broke above 11 734$, it has trended mostly sideways with declining volume at elevated prices. In our opinion, this continues to hint at the unsustainability of the rally, and therefore we would like to set new price targets for QQQ. Our new short-term price target is 280$, and our new medium-term price target is 270$. The price target for NQ1! stays the same, at 10 000$. Our views are based on fundamental and technical factors detailed in the current and previous articles. *to invalidate our thesis about the potential top, we would like to see QQQ break above Resistance 1* Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) and several technical developments indicated by colorful arrows. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is neutral. MACD is bullish. Stochastic performed a bearish crossover. DM+ and DM- are bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bullish. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 shows simple support and resistance levels for Nasdaq continuous futures (NQ1!) on the daily chart. Technical analysis - weekly time frame Stochastic and RSI point to the upside. The same applies to MACD, which stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
16
Short-term bull and bear targets for NQI've overlaid a few fib channels with Visible Range Volume Profile and Linear Regression indicators. Bottom indicator is fast and slow RSI stacked. Fast and slow RSI are both in overbought territory. So there should be a powerful move coming, either extension or reversal. It should complete by next week, perhaps very early. Bear Scenario: We're at the High Value Area(VAH) on volume profile, which is typically where scalpers take profit on longs and sell short. Below, there should be a lot of support in the 11.2k-11.4k range, as there's lots of confluence of: POCs, a bull channel, Linear Regression Lines(LRLs) in pink and the Regression Curve(RC) in yellow. Bull Scenario: If price stays above and makes support on the VAH, it starts a new bull trend. On the macro bear fib channel we've seen resistance at the .382(yellow) and it crosses the 2.618 local bull fib channel around the 12.1-12.2k area. Also 3rd Standard Deviation from current bull trend median/LRL. So that area should show some resistance and be a good scalp target. Perhaps a pullback there, then another leg up to the ultimate macro bear TL around 12.5k. It's the zero(grey) on the macro bear fib channel.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Nicklaus68
SPX all eyes on my 4010.50 on closing level!We have touched the first target in am and sold off hard below maj resistance level - 4010.50SPX Closing below will be very bearish. Whatever the news triggered, was expecting those to come at any time. Those in satanic club are pushing for the big war and it wont be bullish!!! We should see lower lows in Dec, Nov should close lower and Dec will close higher then Nov. Monthly lowest close will be in Jan and intraday low Mar/Apr The maj flow from Europe should come next year and it will propel the markets up, hard! So the next year buy should be a great long opportunity! There is a huge liquidity crisis and FED's reduction started to hit the books today. First low should come on Nov 17th and then bounce. Lower into EOM is what I see
SP:SPX
by RealTima
9
Nasdaq 100 - Signs of exhaustionSince the latest CPI print NQ1! rose approximately 9%, with most of the move-up being manifested right after the release. The move was accompanied by high volume; however, on Friday and Monday, the volume declined substantially. This continuous decline in volume hints at exhaustion and potential reversal. Therefore, we remain very cautious. To support our thesis, we would like to see a further slump in volume and the price going up. Then, we would like to see this followed by a spike in volume and the start of selling pressure. Contrarily, to invalidate our bearish thesis, we would like to see the price hold above 11 734$. Additionally, we would like to see the pick-up in volume accompanying a move higher. On the endnote, we still believe this is only another bear market rally, and because of that, we stay bearish beyond the short term and stick to our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 Since the latest CPI print, each session after the print manifested a declining volume from open to close. Yellow arrows indicate these developments on the chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. DM+ and DM- are bullish as well. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish, although the trend remains weak. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic point to the upside. MACD tries to reverse to the upside but stays in the bearish zone. DM+ and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is less bearish than the last week. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
18
NQ riding the trendline, it will loose it at some pointThat trendline (black) is what Im watching for the NQ to get a confirmation of a breakdown, without it it can extend higher. Needs to break the line, close 1h under 11735 and re-test the broken trendline to confirm the top. As stated before, Im going to reduce my protective longs by 50%, if we gap up tomorrow, already started here. BTW one important thing is that NDX topped at the crossing of some very important trendlines, it was a trendline confluence today:)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) May End 3 Swing Rally SoonShort term Elliott Wave View in Nasdaq (NQ) shows an incomplete bearish sequence from 11.22.2021 high favoring further downside. Short term, rally from 10.13.2022 low is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from 10.13.2022 low, wave A ended at 11734 and pullback in wave B ended at 10636. Wave C higher is in progress as a 5 waves impulse structure before the Index turns lower again. Up from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 11231.25 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 10808. Index then rallies again in wave ((iii)) towards 11876.75. Wave ((iv)) is now in progress to correct cycle from 11.10.2022 low in 3, 7, or 11 swing before the rally resumes. Internal subdivision of wave ((iv)) takes the form of an expanded flat. Down from wave ((iii)), wave (a) ended at 11702 and rally in wave (b) ended at 11898.50. Expect wave (c) to end soon which also completes wave ((iv)). Afterwards, as far as pivot at 10636.55 low stays intact, expect the Index to extend higher 1 more leg. Potential target is a 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 10.13.2022 low which comes at 11870 – 12632 area.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
Nasdaq 100 - Will the FED kill the rally?With the barrage of disappointing earnings and the FED rate hike scheduled for today, we have very little to be optimistic about for the rest of 2022. Our reasoning is based on the persistence of high inflation and interest rates poised to stay here for much longer than many analysts initially expected. Therefore, we believe it is a matter of time until something breaks in the market and the price reverses its direction to the downside. Indeed, with the FED tightening the economy later today, we speculate that this event might lurk just behind a corner. However, it would not surprise us to see one more push higher due to extremely bullish sentiment among retail investors dominated by fear of missing out on “good” deals in the market. With regard to this possibility, we remain bearish on the index and committed to our price targets for QQQ at 270 USD and 260 USD (11 000 USD and 10 000 USD for NQ1!). Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 displays the setup for QQQ on the daily chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame MACD is flattening. Stochastic and RSI are neutral. DM+ and DM- Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but losing momentum. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 At market lows, we stated that relief was set to follow until the FED meeting, with the VIX index dropping shortly before the decision. Now, we expect volatility to start rising soon unless a positive reaction to the rate hike occurs. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Tradersweekly
54
Nasdaq 100 - Something feels terribly wrongOver the past few weeks, there were quite a lot of things happening - “the market bottom,” “crypto bottom,” “trend reversal,” and so on and on. Again, people rush to make hastily conclusions as the market turns from extremely bearish to fearful of missing out on the real primary trend reversal. Before the CPI, we came forward when QQQ stopped its decline 0.11$ above our price target of 260$ and said we would abstain from setting a price target and wait for the data to come out. Yesterday's price action is exactly why we did that. The market participants' desire to see the market go higher after a horrible year of underperformance pumped up the Nasdaq 100 index by 7% before the market closed. However, the reality is that inflation continues rising, despite a small surprise in regard to analysts' expectations yesterday. Indeed, in our opinion, it makes no change for the FED, which will continue to tighten the economy further; merely, it will give it more room not to crash the economy right away. This development comes as a temporary lifeline to the market, which is still seeing the unwinding of the FTX insolvency issues. The stock market and cryptocurrencies continue to see gains across the board today. Despite that, we can not unnotice that something is still terribly wrong; this applies to both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. First, yesterday's move continues to be characteristic of the one in the bear market. For example, in the 2020 crash, there were at least three days with a daily range of more than 10% (for NQ1); examples are shown in Illustration 1.02. Second, volume declined dramatically toward the end of yesterday's session. In addition to that, the peg between the USD and Tether continues to be destabilized, despite retracing much of the move. This development worries us as it might foreshadow another “unexpected” event in the cryptocurrency market, which will also inadvertently affect the stock market. Therefore, we voice a word of caution as we are not yet convinced this is the market capitulation everyone has been waiting for. With that being said, we maintain our price target for NQ1! at 10 000$. Illustration 1.01 The image above shows examples of down and up days during the 2020 crash before the FED cut rates to stop the drop. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all turned bullish with the market bounce. DM+ and DM- performed a bullish crossover. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, the trend is weak. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the declining volume prior to yesterday's close, which shows signs of exhaustion. We will pay close attention to whether it will be sufficient in the coming hours/days to sustain the rally. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic point to the upside. MACD tries to reverse to the upside. DM+ and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows a setup for NQ1!; if the price will manage to hold above the level, then it will be bullish for NQ1!. Illustration 1.04 The above is a link to the article about Tether, which we published during the Luna crash. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
28
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 4.28%, down from 4.41% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 75th from ATR and 67th from VXN index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 3.41% for bullish 3.7% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 76.4% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 12311 BOT: 11270 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 79% to hit the previous weekly high of 11900 26% to hit the previous weekly low of 10750
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
SPY Cycle Patterns For Nov 14~20, 2022 - Rally Week ContinuesThe incredible rally last week as traders flooded into US & Foreign market assets. The US Dollar rolled downward. Cryptos blew up and continued to tank. Traders are assuming inflation data will continue to trend downward and are viewing many foreign assets as "undervalued". You have to attempt to understand the psychology of the markets/humans and the seasonal cycles at play. On top of all of that, we have to consider the fact that the US economy is still much stronger than almost all other foreign economies right now. As I keep saying, this is a Foreign Market Crisis (credit/debt related to the 2008-09 GFC crisis) and the low-interest US Fed Policy. Easy money policies created a massive speculative bubble phase throughout much of the rest of the world. The global economy was rolling. Real Estate prices rose - causing a perceived wealth growth that was heavily leveraged. This creates a massive deflationary/revaluation process to unwind in the near future. We have not seen the end of the unwinding, but we have seen the foreign markets move far enough downward to attempt to begin to form a base. The US markets, with the current CPI data showing weakening inflation and US Real Estate data showing a strong collapse in demand/sales, will likely attempt to MELT UPWARD over the next 90+ days. But I still want to warn everyone we do NOT have any confirmed uptrend using my MRM Rotational Modeling system Bullish Trend Trigger on the Daily chart. This means, no matter how much we want to chase this rally phase, we should only be deploying a very small amount of capital into any trading activity. RISKS are still very high right now. If the MRM system changes to bullish on the Daily chart, then I will address allocation levels and the potential volatility risks. 11-13: Bottom 11-14: N/A 11-15: N/A 11-16: InsideBreakaway 11-17: BreakAway 11-18: WeekendGap/Flat 11-19: Gap Up-Higher 11-20: Consolidation 11-21: CRUSH Looks like we are going to have a fairly good week with higher trending.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
NQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it shouldNQ is in bear flag, as long as it holds those highs it should see lower lows imo Simple distribution and premium kill all day. All the money seems are made during the open, now algo game I would not do options, unless in and out as those loose value quick VIX closed its gap and still in consolidation mode. Ideally we bottom in Nov and see a good rally into Jan high. NQ should see around 8.5k imo, waiting for the capitulation move For now range trade, in and out.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
17
SPY RALLY WEEK - Are you ready for it?I continue to post these SPY Cycle Patterns as a way to help educate and explore my research/results. The interesting part of this research is these patterns originate at an anchor point nearly 5 years ago and continue to produce valuable predictive results for each week going forward - all the way out to 2028 and beyond. Why are they so important? Because they can help you understand how cycles, price patterns, and psychology play a role in future price activity. Of course, they are not 100% accurate as news items, the US Fed, and other (govt) actions may disrupt the cycle pattern trends. Ultimately, these are some of the best predictive solutions I've seen related to preparing for future trends/expectations in a long while. Elliot wave is a great tool, but it adapts to future price movement. Therefore, what you see and believe is going to happen right now may not be valid in 2 to 5 days. Fibonacci is probably the most valuable solution for attempting to develop any type of predictive modeling - besides my Cycle Patterns. Well, this is all just conjecture related to what I believe. Here we go - RALLY WEEK. Let's see what happens. Most of November 2022 is looking quite bullish. So we may see a fairly strong start to a Christmas Rally setting up this week. 11-6: CRUSH - I expect this pattern to push into Monday, driving a fairly strong upward trend. 11-7: Flat-Down - this pattern may transition into early Tuesday, but quickly move towards the BreakAway trend. 11-8: BreakAway - This pattern should carry through most of Tuesday/Wednesday. 11-9: Rally - Off we go. 11-10: Rally - Continued rally (short squeeze) 11-11: Rally - possibly a stalling rally phase headed into the weekend. 11-12: Carryover - the weekend will setup as a pause, rotation, bottom for early next week. 11-13: Bottom Follow my research..
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny