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NQ

What I'm looking at on Nasdaq today 10/6Got some new followers for some reason. I continually forget that I have this account, but I thought I'd share what I'm looking at on the NQ in case anybody finds it interesting. I take trades on lower time frames, actually I use volume charts, which isn't technically a time frame, so it's not really important for me to look at things like hourly charts besides getting a general lay of the land. Anyway if people have questions feel free to ask. I'm not a licensed trader and this is not professional advice.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by emehoke
1
SPX500 / ES - An Ill-timed Bear is a Dead BearThis past week's trading was a good refresher course on what bear markets actually trade like. As opposed to dips during bull runs that suck to short and aren't so scary to go long on because price action continually rips back and makes highs, bear markets will take out a consecutive series of downside lows while terminating virtually each and every rally. At some point during a good bear market, however, you get that kind of manipulation that comes fast and strong to the upside, bringing in buyers and stopping out and liquidating late bears and greedy bears. An easy example of this was formed in a miniature on the 1 minute charts of FedEx FDX on Thursday: It's a risk that all bear market short sellers and put buyers should keep in mind. When it comes to Nasdaq and SPX, it's important to keep an eye on the clock. We just had an entirely bearish week. And a heavily bearish week prior. With a peculiar form of meltdown on FOMC day after the Fed did what everyone and their dog knew for at least a month they would do: hike 75 bps. And in response, everything quickly took a run at the June low, and yet for SPX and Nasdaq and the SPY and QQQ ETFs they did not take the June low and even rallied off the June low. It's like support was found and a double bottom has been made. But note that Dow did take the June low and also spent some time purging under the pre-COVID highs as well: SPX and Nasdaq, like last week, finished the week with a fairly strong bounce. The question now, is, do they turn around and take the June lows before the end of the month? I'd estimate the chances at 65-35 No-Yes, personally. Consider that this is the final week of trading, a full five days, to form the monthly candle. Consider also that Friday Sept. 30 is also quarterly options expiry. Consider also that timing is more important than price. A situation we could easily be set up for is a run back towards 4,000 to close month end, forming a monthly pinbar. Don't think it can happen? It happened in May after making new lows: On the weekly, it's more painful: Broken down into the daily, you see that you had a 400 point bounce over the course of 6 trading days: And on the 4H, there wasn't a whole lot of chance to escape for bears: And then it turned around and made the June lows, which still stand as the low of the year, if you aren't the Dow. In my opinion, the truth is that we are going to see SPX 3,400 and NASDAQ 9,xxx in October, and probably a rather ugly month, but rather than a market wipeout, things will likely turn around again after the November Midterm elections are over. But before we get to that bloody month, you have a week of trading left to paint some hard-to-trade candles, and at least October 3 and 4 where it can still be bullish as the high of the month gets painted before we descend into the near-COVID high abyss under 3,600. So, what to do? If you decide to go long, it's a scalp, not a hold into a reversal. If you want to keep going short, you need to keep your risk down, or prepare to hold a major move in the opposite direction. Unless you're patient/liquid enough to keep shorting on the way up. Of course, just like last week's call, it may just turn around and die, die, die. SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It In trading, it's not so hard to predict the future, but it is hard to figure it out down to the day and the hour, so you have to have some expectations about what can unfold in both directions and a plan for what to do when things unfold contrary to your expectations. Don't get drug into the chaos on social media about recession this and inflation that and Europe this and terminal Fed fund rates that. The U.S. equities market absolutely won't collapse until one, or all, of four conditions are achieved: 1. Everything breaks 2. War 3. Natural disaster 4. Chinese Communist Party falls The U.S. equities market remaining strong is critical for the Western Communist Party to maintain social stability until technocracy can be installed in the form of Central Bank Digital Currencies and Social Credit under the pretext of a conflict-backed energy and economic crisis. They need to create a crisis they can save you from, but the window of opportunity to do that is still a ways away. In the meantime, they need to maintain their stability until the opportunity is ripe. Your western governments have spent years training Marxist-Leninism in Shanghai and Beijing with the Chinese Communist Party. They love the evil Party's ways, because they and the Party have a similar nature. Don't think your governments want to help you and save you. They believe in Marxism, and Marxism believes in redistribution of wealth, which is a polite way of saying that they'll ruin your life and take your stuff. If you want a bright future, get rid of this communist and socialist stuff from your minds and hearts and start walking an upright path. It's the only hope.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
10
Cycle Patterns Seem To Dominate Predictive TrendsI find it very interesting that my Cycle Patterns predicted the following more than 2 years in advance of this move.. 9-26: Breakdown 9-27: Harami/Inside 9-28: CRUSH 9-29: GAP Potential 9-30: Top Resistance 10-1: Consolidation 10-2: Temporary Bottom 10-3: Gap Reversal 10-4: Breakdown 10-5: BreakAway 10-6: Rally 10-7: Carryover 10-8: Bottom 10-9: N/A 10-10: N/A Given what we saw with the SPY price over the past few weeks, could you have identified the Consolidation, Temp Bottom, Gap Reversal, Breakaway, Rally phases this week after everyone else seemed uber-bearish? I know they are not perfect yet, but I'm impressed that these cycle patterns seem to be 60% to 70% accurate within a 48~72 hour window. If they continue to perform well, we should be looking at a MELT UP over the next 10+ days that may start a new Christmas Rally phase. Follow my research.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
Trendmaster Market Update - Monday October 3rd -Welcome to Monday October 3rd The Q3 close last Friday showed a complete route in the general markets as the quarterly close saw the DOW, NQ, and SP down 16%, 17%, and 20% from their summer rally highs. The Dollar Currency Index is still fully parabolic from it’s double bottom from May 2021. The collapsing value of the Swiss Bank Credit Suisse has brought to problems in Deutsche Bank and several other institutions across the European continent. That being said everyone is bearish and expecting more downside and historically Q4 is the strongest quarter. *Breaking* - hastily announced emergency FED meeting (US) has been called for today at 17.30 UTC -Markets Both the Nasdaq and the SP500 are at critical support. The Nasdaq closed the quarterly under 11k signaling the lowest close in 2 years however still holding above it’s 9.7k pre covid dump high. A gain of 11.5k is the only thing that matters to the upside - The SP500 also closed the Quarter under 3.6k another 2 year low with only the pre covid dump high at 3.4k to offer any levels of importance to the downside. - The VIX is still hovering around the low 30s and at a potential failure point. A loss of 29.5 and the major support there could see some bullish relief as markets have been generally crushed and fear and panic are reaching 2008 levels. Anything above 35 and the bearish markets should accelerate to the downside. - -Crypto BTC is still hovering near its main resistance as 20k which is the September, July, and Q3 open. This is the main area to break out from which upon its gain should see a test of 21.2k at the least. To the downside 18.6k has remained an important swing in price action and between that and 18.4k there any major losses or level there should flush the price back into the 17k zone. - ETH although retracing more than BTC following the highs from the summer rally, ETH continues to hold above the June/July range high at 1.27k. Any loss of level around 1.22k should see a retest of the previous range levels at the low 1100s. To the upside a regain of the floor of 1.4k could see ETH rally to its September open levels of 1.55k. - BTC1! - BTC trading on the CME is opened up monday with a slight gap just above 19.2k at that is the Daily, Weekly, Monthly, and Quarterly open. The CME Report showed nothing significant other than Exchanges/Brokers being extremely short as of last Tuesday. Asset Managers/Institutions are still completely out of position on their longs that were added in November ‘21, and April, August of this year are severely under water. CME traders want the regain of 20.4k to test up into the 22k zone. There is also a very old CME gap from 17.6k to 17k which is still untouched from the 2020 runup. Any fill of that gap would be critical in the overall price and a buy back or continued loss of that zone would dictate BTC’s direction for the coming quarter. - Spotlight NFLX - Netflix has been playing out a beautiful 17%+ range for the past 6 weeks with major support at 215 and resistance at 250. Buying higher lows from the support and Selling lower highs from the resistance is still viable until proven otherwise. A loss of the 215 low should see a retest of it’s June monthly open at 198 while conversely a breakout of 250 could see the gigantic gap between 252 and 330 finally filled. A breakout however, is only likely in a general market rally. - Financial Events The emergency FED meeting today at 17.30 UTC is of critical importance to the markets as the financial system is showing signs of cracking. The only item listed under Matters to be Considered is “Review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by the Federal Reserve Banks. Other important items this week: Wednesday Oct 5th - Crude Oil Inventories Thursday Oct 6th - Initial Jobless Claims Friday Oct 7th - Unemployment Rate - Forecast 3.7% Chart to Watch The DXY Dollar Currency Index is generally the canary for market Bullishness or Bearishness as it has an inverse relationship with the general markets. The fact that we are at the midpoint of the “Dot Com Bubble” high structure is a frightening wake up call. It has continued its fully parabolic move since the double bottom back in May 2021 and shows no signs of slowing. The important swing low at 111.3 needs to be broken and retested bearishly which would signal a general correction in the DXY and see much needed relief flood into the markets. It has currently only tested structure at 111.6 in the past few days of retracement and looks primed to send off to new highs. The eventual parabolic break of the DXY will be a catalyst for a significant bear market rally. -
TVC:DXY
by TrendmasterOfficial
Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 Nasdaq Weekly Forecast Analysis 3-7 Oct 2022 We can see that currently the volatility is around 4.84% for this week, decrising from the 5.06% from the last week. Currently there is around 23.6% that the asset is going to close either above or below the channel: TOP 11600 BOT 10470 The current volatility percentile is around 89th, placing us in a very risking and volatility week. And in this situations in general the market moves: AVG weekly bull candle = 2.38% AVG weekly bear candle = 2.692% With this mind, from the opening price it would situate us around TOP 11300 BOT 10500 At the same time, due to the nature of the opening price, making this weekly candle a bearish candle, there is currently a 36% that we will break the ath of previous weekly candle of 11600. From the technical analysis point of view: The majority of moving averages ranging from 10 to 200, are currently around 80% agreement that the market is in a short trend ( the current price is below those moving averages) At the same time if we are looking at the candle type since the beginning of the year, we can see that 60.61% of them were bearish, solidificating the bearish trend. News that can affect the price of this asset this week: - Monday 3 October : ISM PMI - Tuesday 4 October : JOLT Job - Wednesday 5 October : ADP and ISM release - Thursday 6 October : Initial Jobless Claims and ECB Report - Friday 7 October: Nonfarm Payrolls
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by exlux
NQ - still time for the right shoulderIm long here NQ and ES, tight stop though. Needs above 11275, the target is 11380-90 by 6am or so. If we see this move before the PCE numbers, I will exit longs and go short. What if it will be a repeat of what happened last time PCE number was out. Tomorrow should move the price above the last several days range, its also a directional change day and it could be a move in one direction but outside of the range. So a low tomorrow or Monday (Im in a low on Fri/Sun for the futs) and rally into at least 5th or even 7th. The rally will be muted and choppy imo just to reset the indicators. Tomorrow is a not weekly, but monthly and quarterly closing! Should be very interesting close and if it looses today's lows we could see another 100 points plus cut Have a good night!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
8
NQ is looking much lower!Here are the levels of importance for NQ on the downside: - 11060 - 10656-500 - 10300 - 9990 The last 2 numbers are the main target zone now I want one more push tomorrow. Since it's not only weekly, but monthly and (very important) quarterly closing this Fri. Last 2 quarter ends both resulted in selling last 2 days, something to pay attention to. So a flush is very possible to start as early as tomorrow or ideally after Oct 3rd high. I have closed my ES short at 3715.50, 3710.5 from 3727 and waiting to enter with some longs, but will have stops, dont want to wake up with a huge gap down. Also Im in with some SPY 351 Oct 21st puts and some Fri SPY calls from the close. If we break down, I will be entering to my swing MNQ position. For now I want to see a standard 50-61.8% retracement to get long in am. ES is at 3665 (main target) and 3682 NQ is at 11377 and 11322 (I like 11355 as a target) Here is 1h chart with support and resistance white lines Good night
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
13
nasdaq 9-22 update~nasdaq still looks to be on track to make a new high before this year ends. i shared this nq idea not too long ago, and it ended up playing out nicely - check it out if you missed it: === it's easy to get caught up in the bear funk that's going around these last few days, but the charts point up in the mid-term, so that's what i'm mostly focused on. === 11,342--->14,300 into new years ~ === ps. nq making this last leg down could pull es down slightly lower too, to about 3730~3710 before the bullish pivot.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by notoriousbids
1
NDX 2008 vs NDX MAsNDTW = the percentage of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 20D Moving Averages NDFI = " " 50D MAs NDOH = " " 100D MAs NDTH = " " 200D MAs I noticed NDTW was at 1 for the first time since Covid bottom, where it only spent a week bouncing a round down there; but this is closer to the 2008 crash. So I examined that. When NDTW went under 5% in 2008 for the first time, the index was still 30% from the bottom, a month later. Then it chopped around for 2 months until double bottom. Interesting to note the market capitulated at the beginning of October in 2008. It seems the bottom will be a long bumpy road, with opportunities both ways. Be nimble and stay frosty!
OANDA:NAS100USD
by Nicklaus68