Alternative counts on NQ I think we may have a bigger correction before reaching its top. I think we would have its top near midterm election.
NQ
NQ is testing the bottom of the bear flagWatch this bear flag to break and we see 11165-35 very quick.
Main support is at 11234, breaking that will flush quick
I have the price down to even 11050-60 level.
Very important to hold here.
My thinking is we sell off into the open and move up after Powell speech tomorrow am
Today's action off the low could be another trap for the perma bulls to call it the low...
Will be waking up early tomorrow to watch the market and see where I add to my SPXL and some Oct calls long position I started today
P.S. DO NOT GO LONG Heavy! This can crash and the crashes come from the oversold conditions! Size properly and have stops or more powder to add
Long NQRespecting the support in green, possibility of rebound up to 13500$. Depending on closing over the POC of the VP you see in the chart.
NQ is at maj support terretoryHere are the support levels to watch:
- 11167-75 (My target for a while)
- 11058.50
- 10656.50
Maj Resistance is at 12260, above and it will squeeze back to 14k imo
But the pressure is still down, Oct should bring 10k zone imo.
My plan for tomorrow is buy am lows
Have a good night
$NQ - C'mon! $NQ - C'mon!
One of my favourite indices, enjoy my outlook...! Key support...Hard or soft landing?!
Best,
TJ
SPX, find support in a Regression ChannelSPX daily chart with long term Regression channel, 3405 days, with +3/-3 stdev bands. The Comfort Zone is the reddish area located between +2 and 2 stdev, where at least 95% of price occurrences should occur.
This chart shows that the uptrend that started on June 16 failed to break above the +1 stdev line. The mean served as support and allowed a small bounce that failed at +0.5 stdev, retraces and the mean and this time the mean fails to serve as support.
Last Friday it closed at the -1 stdev line. This fact coupled with the extreme reading of some indicators point to an immediate rebound of the SPX. There is too much technical damage on the chart to augur a long life for any rally that starts now. However, we expect the SPX to move higher in the coming days, a trading opportunity.
QQQ - Brief updateRecently, QQQ reached our price target of 290 USD. Therefore, we would like to update our thoughts on the asset. We continue to be bearish due to the persistence of fundamental and technical factors. Indeed, we think the U.S. stock market will continue lower. Accordingly, we maintain the price target for QQQ at 280 USD. Our price target for the Nasdaq 100 index is 11 000 USD.
Illustration 1.01
The bearish crossover occurred as we predicted, confirming our bearish thesis.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Nasdaq Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September
Currently our volatility for Nasdaq is at 4.55%, increasing from 4.03% last week, located on 80th percentile, placing us in a high volatility environment
Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.3% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below)
TOP 11820
BOT 10905
At the same time, based on the previous calculations:
- There is a 35% chance that the previous high from last week of 12140 is going to be touched
- There is a 65%chance that the previous low from last week 11215 is going to be touched
We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish.
On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 3.13% for bull candles and 366% for the bear candles from the opening price.
From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week:
- Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep
- Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep
- US GDP and Jobless Claims coming on Thursday 29 Sep
- Core PCE on Friday 29 Sep
Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
New SPY Cycle Patterns for next weekHere are the new cycle patterns for next week and beyond.
Let's see how the market react to the Excess Phase Peak Phase 3 support (June lows). Failure of this pattern at this point could prompt a big move higher.
9-23: Momentum Rally
9-24: Rare – Major Reversal
9-25: N/A
9-26: Breakdown
9-27: Harami/Inside
9-28: CRUSH
9-29: GAP Potential
9-30: Top Resistance
10-1: Consolidation
10-2: Temporary Bottom
10-3: Gap Reversal
10-4: Breakdown
10-5: BreakAway
10-6: Rally
10-7: Carryover
10-8: Bottom
10-9: N/A
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
10-15: Gap Reversal
10-16: Breakdown
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
10-22: CRUSH
10-23: Gap Potential
10-24: Gap22 Potential
10-25: N/A
10-26: Breakdown
10-27: Harami/Inside
10-28: CRUSH
10-29: GAP Potential
10-30: Top/Resistance
10-31: Consolidation
11-1: Bottom
11-2: UP/Down/Up
11-3: Base/Rally
11-4: BreakAway
11-5: Carryover
WARNING:
There are TWO warning signals on the Short-Term cycle modeling system we need to pay attention to. These may become bigger issues for traders if they compound with other factors.
9-1-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-4-2022: Temporary Bottom10
9-10-2022: Rally11 (Bullish)
9-13-2022: TOP (Potential Price PEAK)
9-23-2022: Momentum Rally
As I stated earlier, I see the easiest path for the US markets to take as staying within one of the THREE Pennant/Flag patterns I highlighted in the charts (above). This means we are likely to see a moderate Christmas rally phase which may trend more sideways than upward.
Last week’s major cycle research trigger:
My cycle research suggests the following is HIGHLY LIKELY.
_ 1999 : Major Top ( Start of DOT COM event )
_ 2003 : Bottom/Disruption
_ 2006.3 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( Start of GFC event )
_ 2010 : Major Bottom
_ 2013.7 : Strengthening Price Trends
_ 2019.5 : Disruption ( COVID )
_ 2022.5 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 1 )
_ 2027 : Peak/Top/Extended Rally Phase ( ?? Crisis Event: Perfect Storm Phase 2 )
There will be some great opportunities for 3% to 5%+ swings in the markets going forward – but I don’t see many great opportunities to get involved in any new long-term positions yet. Stay very liquid at the moment (mostly in CASH). We’ll see how things progress towards the holidays and into early 2023.
Zn10 Year Bearish With High Probability !Hello ladies and gentlemen, according to my chart analysis of Zn 10 Year T-Note Futures There Is a Strong Sell With High Probability 107.05 This is a next level in a Few Days.
QQQ Buy the Dip LONGQQQ down in the range of the June lows on the 30-minute chart appears to be in a falling wedge pattern
now with two green candles in a trend breakout from the wedge to close out the week.
The volume indicator shows a corresponding volume spike.
Are short-sellers buying to cover and take profits? Are new buyers taking a buy the dip position?
What is your optinion, is this a good entry setup for a swing long trade?
SPY - Larger ContextLet's dispense with the Master O' Obvious stuff straight away.
Pick an Adjective - it won't rhyme with Bullish.
It may, however, be cringeworthy.
NQ below 200 W SMA.
What lay ahead remains up to 3588 for the ES Futures, *Note the 200SMA Weekly is just below
this most important of level @ 3585.55.
Powell - simple... NO CHANGE.
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There has been a very orderly decline since The Terrible Tetons.
The Monthly Gaps below remain wide open for Business, but - the Gaps above, not so much.
It would take an extraordinary/non-binary Event to Fill those for now.
We will see what further Fiscal attempts at remedy appear as we approach the Mid-Term Elections.
I have November 7th as an important Pivot in Time, unsure as to why. It is however extremely
significant as it keeps making appearances in Time on a great many studies.
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Risks remain to the downside Short Term. Intermediate-Term will depend on an October Communique
from the Market Overlords aka "Behnchods".
The Chart is self-explanatory / it illustrates the Risk / Reward clearly.
What was most interesting this week was how Wall Street was extremely agile in positioning. Options
positioning was done with extreme Velocity / Scope / Scale. Executed perfectly to cause maximum
confusion until it was too late for the boat to right itself.
They capsized small Specs, repeatedly by loading the woodshed on the Sell in record time.
And then, proceeded to close out Open Interest as quickly as it appeared once Payment was secured.
Unfortunately, the House continued to press the SELL once they'd squared @ 365.06 on the SPY.
The VIX and SPX, ES, NQ, YM - Inverse Gamma Hedging was NOT unwound but pressed quite hard.
Gold - Lower for the nearer term, it is a broken trade, it can RT, but it will fail.
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Here was the Implied Skew and Range I calculated Thursday for the Friday Dance Mix:
Call Skew ATM
$ 53,140,489.00 384.94
43.41% 365.06
Range 19.88
IV% Gamma Dependent
PUT Skew ATM
$ 122,410,005.00 384.94
230.35% 365.06
Range 19.88
IV% Gamma Dependent
The Close came off the Pivot after dipping in ever so slightly with 368 for the SPY Close
based upon the collapse of Open Interest - closing at 367.95.
Wall Street ran the implied range @ 19.88 by 1.79 - a small expansion to 21.67.
Close enough, MaxPain had the SPY pinned @ 387... their data sets were off by a very wide
margin - an absurd failure on their effort.
Here is the Open Data Set:
Calls O/I $ Multiple Notional $
375 179749 2.23 100 $ 40,084,027.00
376 155605 1.77 100 $ 27,542,085.00
377 115204 1.37 100 $ 15,782,948.00
380 175276 0.56 100 $ 9,815,456.00
$ 93,224,516.00
Puts O/I $ Multiple Notional $
370 218394 0.89 100 $ 19,437,066.00
372 110857 1.43 100 $ 15,852,551.00
373 116496 1.77 100 $ 20,619,792.00
374 165461 2.18 100 $ 36,070,498.00
375 247727 2.64 100 $ 65,399,928.00
376 95994 3.17 100 $ 30,430,098.00
$ 187,809,933.00
In Sum, do not ever trust MaxPain, do your own work.
It is garbage.
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The important points in the Chart:
Notice where the 55 EMA resides.
Observe the Shorter duration of EMA crosses.
EMA slopes and ST Fib Levels as both are Neodymium Magnets.
Gap Fill Extension Range to and from recent Gap Highs to Implied Price Objective.
____________________________________________________________________________________
On to the Fundamentals:
AAII Sentiment has crossed 60%
Fear Greed is now 24 breaking into the Extreme Fear base camp
The Dollar has its sights set on the 121 / 125 region, please observe the EuroDollar Chart. As well,
consider the Dollar's response to BOJ interventions.
Bonds are showing immense stress in the system. UST Settlement Failures are a disturbing account
of reality. Defaults are mounting Globally, (See UK $500B recent Default last week).
Yield Inversion simply continues to accelerate in fits and starts. Forwards for 1, 2, 3, 5, and 7's are heading
to 5%. A 40-Year Freak Out as Yield Inversion has exceeded 50%.
FX - Default dislocations throughout the Markets can lead to a near Instant Spike in the Dollar contrary
to those who are Bearish on the DXY. Yes, it will indeed collapse - your timing... it's off is all.
Bitcoin - SUB 10K IMHO with ease - see Trendline.
It is important to remember with EPS ahead - the Mega Caps breaking down... after 3 reductions
to lower guidance since August... Sellers are piling into Apple once again, with good reason, it looks
horrific. Weakness is everywhere in MegaCaps.
Breadth - collapsing
TRIN - Horror Show
TRIX - Ditto
Market Internals - No Nieno
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Contrarian Traders are likely early, hopefully, we see a small RT Monday for Wall Street to reposition.
Have a great weekend. if you enjoyed this and found it of value, please give it a thumbs up and do share your
thoughts - it is appreciated.
NASDAQ QQQ Near 200 Week Moving AverageHaven't posted for a while as I have been waiting for a setup. NASDAQ is near the 200 week moving average which has supported the price in 2020 and before that 2010. Fundamentals are ugly, as they were when it hit this moving average in 2020.
Long above the line, short if price falls below and forms a setup with structure.
NQ is getting close to its first main target of 11180Its getting close, should hit next week.
Its still not a place to be long imo, we are still in a rabbit hole
SPX can see 3200 level next month!
Powell damage control is here, dont get trapped if we go up into the close
BTW here is a link from days ago, you know where the price is now
Current SPY low is < 1% from the June 2022 lows - Double Bottom?My cycle patterns suggest a rally phase is likely over the next 7+ trading days - but, the trend is very bearish today. It is almost as if the markets are flushing out stop levels - actively seeking a support level near the June 2022 lows.
It will be very interesting to see how the market ends today. If we see a big recovery rally into the close, it may support my cycle patterns predictions of a rally phase leading to what may be a new support level near $365. If it continues to sell downward, then I will be forced to admit my cycle patterns FAILED today. That means I'll have to spend hours studying why this failed and if I can make any improvements to my cycle pattern qualifiers/code.
I will state that my predictive modeling suggests a rally phase is still likely. So, we'll see what happens as the day progresses.
Follow my research.
Big Cycle Pattern Day - Momentum Rally DayThat means the SPY should find immediate support (after it appears a big GAP downward reflecting Europe's recession concerns).
Here's a little hint: Bitcoin will likely rally along with the SPY/ES and others over the next 7+ days.
The strength of the US economy/US Dollar may drive global investors into US assets and safe-havens throughout the end of 2022 - possibly setting up a very strong Christmas Rally phase.
Remember, this was all predicted over 3 years ago by a major cycle event. I have every day mapped out all the way past 2026 and beyond.
Next week should be very exciting. The potential for the markets to rally higher is high. There is a CRUSH day (9-28) that may represent some type of corrective price event, but other than that one day, the momentum appears to be to the upside.
Hope you guys are enjoying these? Please comment or let me know if you find these valuable in any way/form?
Follow my research...
Effective Fed Fuds 2023 - Powell's War on You
Growth, Employment, Inflation - aka what's left of the Economy.
1. Employment - seeking roughly a reduction of 12 Million Jobs.
2. Growth - reduction of 50% for S&P 500 from Highs.
3. Inflation - Leads until Rate Lag breaks everything.
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Capital Stocks
Powell - Bonds are going to see a Yield Curve Inversion, larger than usual. There is no single
condition, what is the term premium on Longer Rates is what matters most.
Powell - Housing will see a significant correction, we want the housing market back on a
sustainable path.
Powell - Equities are overvalued, period, the end. We're committed to "Price Stability"
Powell - The US should not return to a Gold Standard - Digital Currency is the path.
Powell - We flooded the System with Money (Digitally) by buying Bonds now we are selling them.
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Forward Rates are indicating he is very serious.
I've warned about this for well over a year now - safe to say its come to pass.
Cycle Pattern - Tomorrows Momentum Rally PatternIs it really that hard to believe that tomorrow could shift gears and move into a moderate momentum rally after the Fed raised rates 75bp?
What I find incredibly interesting about these patterns is how they can paint a very clear picture of the opportunities and shifting market trends.
Each day is clearly defined (except for the N/A days). Each day paints a picture of what to expect and potential trend.
Reading all this data as a story or narrative provides us a very innovative way to address allocation levels, risks/opportunities and trends.
Given the market volatility and trending, I would still suggest addressing any potential momentum rally with some caution. Trade smaller amounts and look to pull away from position before the close of trading on Friday.
Follow my research.
SPY - Apres Powell & The Double DipJackson Hole, CPI, and FOMC are rearview.
Are you a Dip Buyer - with Powell stating the FED is on the low side of the
Target Range?
That is a suicide, assured.
See Chart - the obnoxious Bots are far more intelligent than us and gaining
further ground exponentially. We closely observe their programs daily and
make adjustments among our small group of live traders each and every day.
That Chart is simply NASTY.
The June bottom is where Traders are now focused. I'm looking lower.
It's not going to hold IMHO, 3588 for the ES will be tested and panic will
become a brushfire.
Yesterday's SPY frenzy failed 8 times... it whipsawed all the degenerate
gunslinging gamblers - all in the last 150 minutes.
Degens were buying calls into the closing... which in turn provided the
fuel to wreck them for the 9th time into Globex.
Amazing to watch, but disappointing as we traders need Liquidity.
Net/Net the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed the day @ 0.71 for Sep 21, 2022.
Technically the Markets do not support Buyers.
Liquidity does not support Buyers.
Margins do not support Buyers.
Volatility does not support Buyers. A larger Gap Fills overhead.
Yields do not support Buyers.
The Dollar does not support Buyers. Look for my 111.71 Po to be hit, should
it snap higher... 112.27 to 144.11 come into the Trade,
I have been patiently waiting for the real Panic event, where the Algos
simply pull the Bids and let gravity take hold.
Is there a setup here?
No, there is however a great many trades.
Options positioning has played an important role in Intra-Week to Monthly
expiration. I trade the O/I Setups and imbalance as a better guide Intra-day
and Intra-week.
It's a nose-biter, but it is what we are given.
3810 on the ES is gone 380.11 & 382.67 for the SPY - goners.
NQ's 50 FULL HWB 50% @ 13415 - nearly 2K overhead.
Dow/YM - 28.4 / 28.2 Gap Fills ahead.
VIX - Term Structure... Backwardation I wanred of...
arrived.
Bonds - my implied "Return of Capital" trade is active. They will be wrecked
again, the same traders buying TLT since 180, 155, 145, 130, and 120 will simply
be hammered again. Flight to Disaster Trade will fail again as it has 7 times.
You do you traders will be crushed again. Flight to Safety will get caught
up and distend Value and Price once again. I'll be Seller into the next CT in
TLT.
Bitcoin - rejected, Sub 10K ahead - the larger Long Term trendline, IMHO
will not provide lasting support.
Gold - Horror show continues. After being repeatedly told by a few traders it's a
buy @ 1930... 1900, 1872, 1850, and 1800... they are now about $300 out of the money
since bringing out the Bullhorns... GOLD is heading a great deal lower. Ya'll were
warned by a person who has traded Gold for 44 years now. Projecting sophomoric
experiences from YouTube... fails every time. Trading on the Comex back in the
day isn't some dumbass projecting, it's wisdom. You do you aka... wrong again.
Energy, we remain patient for the 77 Full HB Test to see the lower extension.
Sentiment - Terminal.
In Sum - charts are pretty much useless as Fundas take hold, yes they'll instruct
on Possibility/ Probability - but that is rather obvious is it not?
________________________________________________________________
Powell promised to Break "Something" - "Everything" appears more appropriate.
Fixed.
Powell indicated the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds move aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
Will Technical Exhaustion provide a small Counter-Trend this week... possibly,
but that appears to be an event for Friday. Powell speaks @ 2 PM EST Friday.
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Calculating the Yield Push forward for 6 Months, I currently have 4.53% for
Effective Fed Funds into April / June of 2023. This is subject to change as
my Dot Plot is now ~480/490, unfortunately, it extends to 500/510 into
March of 2024.
The Yield Curve will see 6% into October of 2023 IMHO. The Pullback to 2.71 on
10 Year was a very limited YCC intervention from the Federal Reserve.
My projection, the Federal Reserve is relying on Inflation returning below 6%
into 2023.
It is important to remember the BLS reset the BASE for CPI on January 1st, 2022.
2019/2020 is the present Base.
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I have referenced the FSR repeatedly for 10 Months - If you have not read the
Federal Reserve's Financial Stability Report since last November and again
for the May 2022 release - it requires traders' attention.
Here is their SPY Objective - 240 - it will likely exceed this level over time
filling the Gap at 235.
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Good Luck & Trade Safe.
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ) Further Downside ExpectedShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) suggests the decline from 8.17.2022 high is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 8.17 high, wave A ended at 12017.75. Wave B ended at 12986.74 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Up from wave A, wave ((a)) ended at 12461.50 and dips in wave ((b)) ended at 11921.50. Wave ((c)) higher ended at 12986.74 which also completed wave B.
Index has turned lower in wave C with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Down from wave B, wave ((i)) ended at 11778.50 and rally in wave ((ii)) ended at 12143.34. Internal subdivision of wave ((ii)) unfolded as an expanded flat. Up from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 12092.50, wave (b) ended at 11763.25, and wave (c) ended at 12143.34. This completed wave ((ii)) of C. Index has resumed lower in wave ((iii)). Near term, expect wave (i) of ((iii)) to end soon. Index should then rally in wave (ii) to correct cycle from 9.22.2022 high (12143.34) before it resumes lower. As far as pivot at 12143.34 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((i)) which comes at 10195 – 10938.
NQ H&S or Bear flag?I want to see a final move down after FOMC, maybe lasting into tomorrow and then up into the 26-27th high.
On the other hand it can just blast of making a higher low to suck more bears in and stop the longs.
Make your bets, today will be volatile.
Main trend is still down. Im looking for a high on the 27th and sell hard into the EOM in Aug like move
SPY, Broad Markets & the FOMC PlaybookFOMC @ 2:00 PM EST reaction will see one of 3 Events:
1. 75BPS is priced - leading to a move higher to recent intra-week Highs.
2. 75BPS is priced - leading to a tighter range into Powell.
3. 100 - 125 BPS is not priced - leading to a breakdown and a VIXplosion to 31
and VIX Curve inversion.
Powell's conviction @ 2:30 PM EST sets the Equity Complex in further motion of
which there are 3 events:
1. Powell indicates the FED is making progress but needs to see further Data and
intends to remain vigilant.
2. Powell indicates the FED sees further Risks to Inflation and needs to bring
Fed Funds aggressively towards the Inflation Rate.
3. Powell indicates the FOMC's trend toward Higher Rates will need to remain
consistent in order to maintain stability with November an important
timeframe for the FED.
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Nature abhors a Vacuum.
As does the US Dollar - Any spike above 110 leads to 111.71s.
Dot Plots, Terminal Rates... will all see an adjustment, one that has made
higher velocity movements recently.
The Yield Curve - with 1's over 4%, 2's approaching 4%, and a new Inversion
dipping into prior lows and exceeding them @ - 0.487% - doubling the
prior 2 most recent curve inversions.
The Market Signals are quite clear - indicating the FED will raise 100BPS as
a flood of Global Central Banks Rate decisions are set in motion this week
and next.
Competition is building among them. Powell will not be sanguine.
That will not happen today IMHO.
Powell will be direct in the extreme once again as the FED has no
intention of back off until 8 months after their final rate increase.
This is the history of Interest Rate Cycles - this one will be shorter
and far more volatile than prior cycles.
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Yes, we are at the lower end of the Risk Range, but nowhere near the lows.
It is important to remember, RIsk compounds from elevated levels - which
provides vacuous sucking sounds time and again.
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Time favors the Spread, if you are using leverage, the October Monthly Expiry is
the safer Trade into an October Straddle - direction neutrality the higher probability
of profit.
The tightest spread is preferred as the IV is elevated, should it come down, close the
position as IV can move in either direction today, it is VIX Settlement.
Lack of volatility - is the lowest probability providing the performance.
The key to success is to close the position within a few days.
I am taking ATH only.
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Trade Safe & Good Luck.
