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NQ

NQ has a chance to push hereUpdated chart Needs to hold the broken trend channel, ideally we re-test the broken down zone of 260, might not get as far if this is for real. Has to take 188-90 for the 260 become next main target New target to hold is 12030+- Very important to hold! I dont want to be in a crash mode, but no one expects it makes it more probable. So be careful! P.S. I like this downtrend channel, much better then another bear flag, when we break it, we can finally be moving. 12030 target looks good for the touch of the bottom trendline
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by RealTima
SPY - Becoming Oversold ST / And...What a mess, a very violent and choppy mess of a Market. Let's see if they can recapture the 377... It's a Buy/Sell Hall of Mirrors with the 1 Hour Death Cross being a 199/377 2X affair. The Range continues to expand - from 388 to 404s For the ES - 3910 to 4120. NQ - 12070 to 12714/12818 ________________________________________________ The week is young, it's Algo Wednesday, best to be on guard for a potential squeeze. And then Failure perhaps next week on a shortened week. There are 67K 400 Puts for the SPY. Apple - expanded new Range 153.70 to 164.10, Tesla 840 to 892 ADP Friday (300K), Fed Speakers reiterating their Position all week, with the DX, VX, and Rates lending ample confusion. The DX can pull Back to 107s and remain in trend to 112. Yields - 2YY vertical wedge, 10's remain in a longer-term uptrend. VX - 8 Count ST Highs - as we move into Friday it's due to pullback or explode, toss a dart. Crude was sold to the late chasers, it dumped hard to a key pivot which IF broken revisits 85. Weekly Charts - See Goog... just nasty. _________________________________________________________ Next CPI September 13, FED on Sept. 21. It's a laundromat Monday every day until this timeframe. Short term it has been whipsaws to further downside. RSI divergence short term, MACD moved into Negative, AO has as well. Rejection 3x. PC elevated... Meme / BTC wrecked. What a complete mess. Mixed signals in a downtrend are the most dangerous place to trade.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
4
NQ - Large Funds were Friday's Sellers / Macro Context8 Minutes and 49 Seconds: "The Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) overarching focus right now is to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal." "Restoring price stability will take some time and requires using our tools forcefully to bring demand and supply into better balance." "While higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions will bring down inflation, they will also bring some pain to households and businesses." __________________________________________________________________________ $3 Trillion in Equity Complex losses, the result. __________________________________________________________________________ After a slow build, FOMO took hold as the Financial Media began its Pivot dialogue. On 34 separate occasions, Fed Members attempted to extinguish the narrative which appeared to self reinforce - every time a Board of Governor member spoke. A bizarre and high velocity move higher to the day of reckoning which took participants by surprise. Their overarching thesis had been reduced to a puddle in 8 minutes. __________________________________________________________________________ A slow-motion waterfall of 4.5% for the NQ, blowing through the .618 or Negative .382 of the entire move off the lows to very recent highs. A powerful message to Market Participants, which became self-reinforcing as the Afternoon progressed. Internals collapsed as Large Funds began liquidating Tech. If you have followed recent commentary, you understand why. Markets were simply a ticking bomb, hot potato, and overreach of extraoridnary guile as Meme's went ballistic only to give it all up and likely much more in the coming weeks. Bonds, the Dollar, Energy, and Soft Commodities are all at Pivotal junctures. __________________________________________________________________________ "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy." - began to cycle through mindshare across Trading Desks as the PM Session unfolded. An important admission by a Fed Chair. One that I have repeatedly hammered home here on Trading View through Multiple commentaries with a multitude of examples. Without exception - every one of the 9 events where inflation crossed 5%: 1945 1948 1953 1969 1973 1980 1981 1990 2007 Recession followed. 2022 is somehow different... according to some, new, All Time Highs will arrive. It is absolutely, not different. "The historical record cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy." It does indeed, although the results this time will be extraordinarily different as the foundations are crumbling along with future arrangements. During recessions, the Lows formed After the Fed began to reduce rates - within 1 to 3 months the bottom formed. In sum, this is in no way similar to the prior 9 Recessions, and the Federal Reserve knows this very well. __________________________________________________________________________ We are facing extreme Volatility once again, I see no signs of it letting up. Mid-Term Elections are outliers, we will see how the Admin attempts to Politicize the the new reality - "Inflation is Zero" will not do. The DX breaking 110 will create panic.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
SPY - Daily / The Largest Reversal Bar since the LowsFriday was rough for Traders' offsides. I'm reluctant to even state the obvious at this point as it is self-evident. If you were on the incorrect side, feel for you as it was an insidious trap. In conversations with Traders, the large majority were Buyers for Friday. My bias was lower and a Negative close as SPX buyers had positioned for the Kill. The Falcon and the snowed-men, it happens, unfortunately, some must lose in order for others to win. Wall Street is very unforgiving at critical junctures, taking Retail's Capital. Powell provided the color in 8 very direct minutes - to the point, no stammering, no wavering. _____________________________________________________________________________________ I had intimated the 2YY was providing some serious indications, the Dollar, even more, SPX positioning was downright nasty for the Sell and once again made Max Pain irrelevant. QT utterances would have been a total disaster, but Powell sidestepped the worsening case there. More importantly, for months I've discussed the deteriorating Global Economy and Terminal Sentiment. Fundamentals are quite often ignored as the Financial Media will pander to Multiple Expansions, Recessions out the Curve, Yield Curve inversions as "questionable events," Liquidity Dislocations... all of these are obvious indications - and yet they are muted via Financial Media's messed up message track. It did suck to watch frankly - Cronyism at work and play. Again, if you were beaten, my condolences. _____________________________________________________________________________________ After another very odd 5 Wave move into the Highs at Resistance, Once again lower Resistance was run only to see the Sell begin a very large decline, exceeding 4% on the NQ an event which 18/18 times has led to Lower Lows. Lower Lows are indeed ahead. A continuation of the powerful Sell is now assured, how it unfolds will be quite telling. The rising Lower Trend will be an important test. I am, however anticipating another 8 to 11% Downside, perhaps far more. It is too early to make that determination as we need a great deal more information. Let's see if Black Monday we've indicated - arrives. Good Luck, Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
15