NQ
Is this recent rally a bull rebound of a bear retracement? To make an assessment if the market has turned bear, during the closing second quarter on 29th June 2022, we discussed on the topic “Using S&P to Identify Recession
and on the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago the tutorial posted here, we studied and expecting this current rebound, topic “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”.
In today’s tutorial, I thought of doing a recap between the two videos and explore if the current market and its development, if it is a bull rebound heading to break another new all-time high or if it is a bear retracement?
I have included both the video links below.
Before we get into this topic, please also take some time to read through the disclaimer in the description box below.
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
Tutorial example:
Micro E-Mini Nasdaq
0.25 = US$0.50
1.00 = US$2
(12,900 - 11,900) x US$2
=US$2,000
(Note: Opposite is also true)
• During the closing second quarter in June, on 29 Jun - “Using S&P to Identify Recession
• On the 19 Jul, 2 weeks ago - “Nasdaq a leading indicator of Dow Jones, S&P & Russell”
8/2/2022 - US100/NDX/NQ/QQQ Open above the pivot zone will send the market to the resistances to the upside. Open or bid below pivot zone will send the market to supports below.
As always, use discretion when executing your trades.
NQ almost hit my target zone, expect a test of the mid channelNQ almost hit my target zone, expect a test of the mid channel if not more.
I still day trade this, no swing positions, only ES from Fri.
All depends on how we will be closing today, might enter with either long or short for tomorrow
Tomorrow is a turning day, it can be a move in one direction.
VIX has a long signal, be careful if long indexes
ES - Monthly Risk Range / Impending COLLAPSE2007 Levels will be upcoming into October 2023.
Summer Counter-Trend has more room for the upside.
The Monthly Risk Range is at extraordinary risk.
"Others" are getting it all together for the Early Fall Classic.
Extreme patience is required for the SELL, it will continue to
develop over time, blink and you'll miss it.
Financial Media continues to caution Bear Market Rally
without mentioning the extremes to which they can and
have occurred @ 10 - 21%.
This one will fail as well as PE's become even more distended
and detached from the collapsing NET's and forward Sales.
Summer has always been the time of year for Wall Street to
begin the next Grift, this one is no different.
Cyclically - 8 weeks from the Weekly Pivot for time lined up
perfectly within the 112 Week Cycle (111.8) with 2/3 weeks of
Wally World left to complete.
$2 Trillion in Pocket lining Stimmy for the "Others" and the
Assault Weapons (Rifle) debate on tap. Pelosi (CCP Ladyboy)
suggesting a visit to Taiwan is in order... A FED who appears to
prefer confusion and delay ahead of the Greater Collapse - all
the while destroying the Labor Markets, while Buffet and his
ilk prepare for Sharecropping the Sheeple.
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The Investment Establishment continues to maintain a balanced Portfolio
of Stocks and Bonds - 90% of the Industry.
Independents beg to differ, they believe avoidance is the optimal strategy.
Risk On versus Risk Aversion.
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Goldman Sachs predicted a 14% rise in Equities into 2008, December of
2007 it collapsed 36%.
Wall Street setting the expectations for Greed once again, but failing to
deliver sans a more massive wealth transfer - deliverance.
The 2 main reasons are quite simple:
1. Status Quo Bias - Unwillingness to accept the 10%, only the 90%.
2. Cognition Bias - Confirmation Bias that filters existing preconceptions.
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Numbers never lie, however, fudged they may be.
Lying is part and parcel of the Grift.
56% at minimum will come off the Indices in the first leg lower. It will head
far lower over the coming years exceeding the 4-year 90% cycle during the
Great Depression, this will be far greater.
Concentrations are trending further towards non-representation of Humanity
form every point on the Arrangement Curve.
ETHThinking something like this. The tech sector NDX can run back to 13,500 so assuming that possibility ETH will likely follow. I recently posted my NDX chart and it looks almost exactly the same as ETH. Falling wedge overthrow and reclaimed the bottom TL. Now the top TL is a target for the bulls with the momo that they currently have.
NASDAQ Engulfing to down in 30 minutes chartEngulfing candles on Nasdaq at 30 minutes.
Artificial Pump is over.
I really do not understand how idiotic could people be buying #stonks from companies after their negative earning reports and fed hikes of interest rates.
How could one invest into something knowing that it will lose your money.
Imminent #bigcursh coming
- big companies reporting negative #earnings <=> Markets continue pumping up
- #interestrates increased worldwide <=> Markets still continue pumping up
- #GDP shrinking <=> Markets continue pumping up more
Even a small #BlackSwan and all will crush
$SPY Mr. Market update and possible inflection pointMr. Market has had a nice rally from sub 400 to now trading 410 zone and right at the daily 100MA
Could be a major inflection point as we head into next week and a lot of supply overhead now on what is basically a pump from Apple AMZN and a few other earnings as well as the result of net short option positioning , and lack of sellers "in the hole" .
If you believe another major leg down is imminent, August - Sept seems likely as we now have had a decent bear market rally to accompany the thesis.
If you believe we go higher, look for some nice consolidation now and even retracement before starting the next leg up
Either way, I'd be careful adding longs here as the next weeks most likely involve downside or consolidation as this recent move up is digested.
IMO it's low probability of going straight up higher, but not out of the question if we get major news on - Ukraine war, etc.
Personally I've closed most my longs for decent / good profit and starting building shorts with mostly cash position right now. My lean is short / no trend here.
Cheers : )
Time to get long?
This is a 30 MIN chart.
Impressive how hard they can push on a string.
I am short MNQ Futures expiring in September with the 12200 Contracts.
They pulling shorts - plain and simple and dumping longs.
That said this could continue tomorrow.
Silver is up over 7% today - yet looks like this chart - I am short Silver too - in the futures market.
NQ - 4 Hour / Trend to Counter-TrendTECH Bellwethers after the NYSE Close Today.
Apple Changes Everything - 143 to 163 Range possible.
Life extensions for Tech are DX, TNX, and Chips Bill
finalized by the Senate 62 to 34 with a $282 Billion
Giveaway ready for the Criminals in the House.
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The new Mid-Term distraction, forget Hunter and Joey,
focus on Trump's "Indictment" - can't have the plebe's
getting anxious about anything else.
While they are sh_t mixed, let's get a Carries Group over
to the South China Sea to protect Nancy while withdrawing
from Black Sea Operations as Putin vows to send them all
to the bottom.
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All is well...
Sure it is.
Nasdaq 100 - Eyes on the FEDRecently, we warned about the impending short-term bounce in the price of QQQ while sticking to our bearish outlook for the medium and long term. Today, we will pay close attention to the Nasdaq 100 index as the FED officials are expected to hike interest rates in the range of 50bps to 75bps. In our opinion, such a move by the central bank will negatively impact the U.S. economy. Higher servicing cost of debt, high rate of inflation, the prospect of global recession, and more economic tightening by central bankers will further weaken the slowing economy.
As a result, we are increasingly anxious about the current rally. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the immediate support/resistance with the bullish potential above it and the bearish potential below it. Additionally, we will monitor volume to see if it is sufficient to propel the price higher. For the bullish prospect, we would like to see a further increase in price accompanied by a gradual increase in volume.
We introduce the current trade setup in Illustration 1.01. It consists of two alternative scenarios. We will update the idea after the FED meeting.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD is neutral. DM+ and DM- are neutral. Overall, the daily time frame is slightly bearish.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the current trade setup for the Nasdaq 100 index (continuous futures, NQ1!).
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD is neutral. Stochastic points to the upside but stays in the bearish area. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bearish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Equities is going to break the box after FOMCMy new view after FOMC, the shoulder head shoulder was invalid, now I focus to next resistant at 13000.
GDP RealityThe Federal Reserve will suggest they projected a slowdown in Economic activity.
Effect Indicated, Effect Observed.
Solid work.
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Outside of the Matrix, the Depression slumbers on within the confines of Real Sentiment.
....The Deal Breaker.
"7" was misstated - "6" is the GDI hedonic, it's been a long overnight Session, apologies.
NQ, Channel in channel !NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures is showing a beautiful channel play !
There is a high slope minor up going parallel channel in low slope major up going channel. Index is reaching to upper top of both channels and reaction will be exciting.
Break out from down side of minor channel will probably triggers for downward move to base of major parallel channel. In this case possible break out of base of major channel signals more down side in whole market. MACD MAY also make a bearish cross. Please note latest bearish crosses in MACD followed by sharp decline in the index.
Possible True Break out of top of channels will trigger more up side move.
Which sides of channels will be broken? We may have a guess and predictions but wise action is to watch carefully and follow the market not our predictions.
This channel in channel setup sounds very interesting and I am happy to share this beauty of technical analysis with you.
Good luck.