Get started

NQ

Nasdaq 100 - NQ1! follows through with a relief rally A week ago, we abruptly warned investors that the stock market might be positioning itself for a significant bear market rally in the short term. We also clarified that we expected this move to range between 5-10%. Since then, the Nasdaq index has risen more than 5%. Currently, NQ1! (continuous futures) trades near 12 440 USD. We remain bearish in the medium/long-term; however, in the short-term, we think the index might continue higher and possibly test the resistance in the vicinity of 13 000 USD. This short-term view is supported mainly by technical factors. Meanwhile, fundamental factors continue to stay bearish. Higher interest rates, economic tightening, and looming recession pose a threat to the U.S. economy. Indeed, we think the rally might be put to an end if the FED follows through with the rumored rate hike on 27the July 2022. That would further pressure the U.S. economy, which is already at a weak point. In our opinion, the bear market rally's presence is also indicated by the enormous magnitude of moves across various stocks. Historically, bear market rallies tended to perform very well, often in double digits. That, in return, often led to confusing market participants who would later feed the cycle of buying and selling. Because of that, we think it is premature to say that the bear market is over. Illustration 1.01 The bullish breakout occurred, further bolstering the bullish case in the short term. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX contains a relatively low value, which indicates that the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but with a weak trend. Illustration 1.02 The chart shows simple support and resistance lines. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI is bullish. MACD performed a bullish crossover. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Tradersweekly
8
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Nq - Short Interest / Gamma Squeee July 15 - July 21Call Buyers were able to earn off the July 15th Gamma Squeeze into the Day prior to Expiry July 22nd, Friday. Wall Street managed a near-perfect Trifecta on the move, flipping the trade on its head into the Close Thursday. Overbought Conditions moving into Friday assure the Squeeze has a higher probability of Reversal. __________________________________________________________ Kick 'em when they're down, kick 'em when they're up. Perfection in Grifting MAximum Sh_t Mix Algebra, brah... simple, basic Math that provided hope for the Bulls and anxiety for the Bears. It's a Counter-intuitive Trade on balance and what Traders need to anticipate when we see large overbought readings for NQ. We had that event with the Highest RSI of 2022 for NQ leading into the TOSS. ___________________________________________________________ Aggravating - these perfect Pivots from Port to Starboard. The Boat Tips and sends the mixed into the drink. Wall Street's Algos have become extremely adept at siphoning off each and every spike in Liquidity within the Options expected ranges. This makes it difficult to determine exactly what they are doing on a Weekly basis until Extremes are reached. Unfortunately for most Options traders, the Pre NYSE has provided the exit on Fridays if you are on the opposing side of the Ship. ____________________________________________________________ At present, it's a Holeshot range until the 2nd test of the recent highs or an outright collapse to lower lows over the coming days to a week.
N
by HK_L61
NQ - Daily / Highest RSI of 2022 Prints - Preppin for Uncle Ted Buy the Highs again fails. Breakout... Rejected. Pirce... Ejected. Was it FOMO? No, it was not. It was Wally dragging the Futes on a Low Participation Day which Snap'd lower. VX SM'd again. ______________________________________________________________ Bulls cheering the 10 Year? The DEPRESSION Inversion is extremely persistent. ...And wreaking havoc everywhere, everywhere. A FED Pivot, a "Bottoming Process"... blah blah and blah. It took TESLA 3 Days to reverse from the Q1 Fraud. Remember that dunk Fanbois? 1250 to 50% lower. Subtle eh? Memories are short. SNAP isn't trying to shake it off, rather the appetite for destruction was enhanced to Single Digit Midget Mode. _______________________________________________________________ The TECH JUNK Co Junk is setting up for yet another large adjustment. It will indeed Go - Full On Uncle Ted - Unibomber Jihadist. Wall Street's Holy War on those seeking to Profit from incessant Greed by Fading the Terrorists have conveniently unleashed RPGs at every Soul willing to engage them. Bone Drones circle above ready and willing to unleash hell from above, be it those willing to bring down Airlines, Cruise Ships... Wally simply goes full john Brennan and blows up every Wedding Party in sight. Wed yourself to the SELL anywhere under Resistance and you are fair game... you'll be dismembered from above. Depeche Mode... be your own personal Jesus, resurrect yourself, I Suppose. JB's the on the Trigger, he'll just Rod of God yer ass, again and again. ________________________________________________________________ It's different this time, for the 7,120,127th time in Humanity's history. _________________________________________________________________ With the Game now being moved out until 2023, Wally is desperately trying to arrange the Media Bullhorns to engage further "Hope" Man, f_ck that. Idiotic. Hypotheticals abound, unfortunately, they are designed to imply progress which is NOT being made by any measure. Below expectations is not a Positive, Lower the Bars lower and then suggesting it's not as Bad as we thought, it's bad just nearly not as Bad as it could have been. Buy the Bad. No, KMA. We have until July 27th to 28th to Pivot into the 2nd TOSS. Time's up after that... into August 12th Pivot. The sentiment is absolutely terminal and will is not about to reverse. Globally Central Banks are getting Aggressive... ignore it at your own peril. ES at 3200, where doth NQ end up... easy Sub 10K.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
5
NQ - 4 Hour / Trend to Counter-TrendThe Casino is back baby~! Beloved Flamingo participants are now able to Game their PS5's at assorted Tables, regardless of recalls - Major screw up SONY aka "Standard Oil New York" is lubricating the Slots, Tables and Bottle Services to a select crowd of Insiders. ______________________________________________________ In the larger context of the Full High to Low Range, we see NQ has managed to pop its little head over the very Negative 764 of the Range. Bullish? No, a Counter Trend. Can it reach the magical Negative 618? It's possible, it's Summer, but is wholly dependent on degenerate stupidity, of which there is not much left in the spank tank. Add in the Corrupt Oligarchy Inbred Cult of Insiders and Political Grifters and we've got one enormous and very Toxic cocktail for further, irrational crazy. The Range is quite large, given the large decline in NQ from 16767 to 11069. _________________________________________________________ In reality, the Equity Market is a complete and total disaster. _________________________________________________________ Investors and Money Managers continue to Buy this overpriced Junk, albeit at a vastly slower pace. Da Boyz are enjoying the ride, which is completing 3/3 or 3/5 higher. The obvous Price objective is the Negative 618. Any issues? Yes. In large downtrends Price rarely meets "Expectations" Trade Safe, we're getting close to the even larger disruption dead ahead which will bring prices into an extreme adjustment for E, P, and S. Europe has turned the corner after 8 years of failed experiments. The FX accident will simply begin to unravel everything. Contagions will spread with intense velocity. Plan for it, earn from it, and be patient with it.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
1
NasdaqI think we are in an ending diagonal within the primary 4th wave position. Inside of the larger intermediate ABC. LTF daily chart looks like we have lost the lower TL of the ending diagonal in what should become an overthrow on the weekly TF. Currently working on the Z wave which is the strongest wave of the WXYXZ pattern which usually sends the price up or down depending on whether or not the WXYXZ pattern is bullish or bearish. After wave Z a strong reversal hits. This is what my chart implies.
TVC:NDQLong
by Big_Mike716
NQ - 15 Minute ALGO Prop / Globex Thru TuesdayAnother O/N Stick Save and Prop for the TECH - Surprise again. Cutting jobs outright a la' MSFT, or our new favorite - "we're slowing Hiring Velocity" Or this GEM - "Hiring Rate of Change will slow" It's as though Uber Karen has stolen the Bullhorn and run off to the nearest Comedy Clown Show. Netflix is down 68% YTD, and password sharing and outright cancellations will have skied again. We'll see if they Pull a Tesla and begin reporting "Streams Delivered"... ______________________________________________________________ The Financial Media is searching for its 11th bottom, citing a "Pendulum overestimating the Gloom..." Patience, there is more to this EPS season silliness dead ahead.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
7
NQ - 15 min / 11767 LIS - Upper Boundary 12262 - GLOBEX OPENRoughly a 500 Handle Range has developed for NQ. The 711s have seen the largest Call Option activities. but it remains a complete lock on IV, while the VIX is seeing its Summer Squeeze lower. Cross out VX and yet those Puts on the SPY continue to hold up well at elevated Price levels. Look over the 400 / 380 / 360 / 340 for AUG SPE OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB and you'll clearly see Wall Streets expectations for Price out the Curve, there are some very large adjustments for Price on TIME. This implies - it is a time for extreme patientce. MSFT GOOGa GOOGl AAPL NVDA AMZN META TSLA - The MANGs have all been in relative Distro on balance while grinding higher... Apple cam off the 132s to 150 at present. Can it fill the Gap at 155? Appears it can. The Nasdaq 100 was down for the week, not a good look. In fact, it all was down for the Week. The Trend Lower is intact - BUT - there is room overhead within the Downtrend. How kinky can Wally behave? We already know. Short term, the 15 minute has some tailwinds on MBS providing a mild increase in Oil Supplies to current US Consumption... an accident? No, it meets the daily @ 70% of the present "reported" consumption. A win, as the Financial Media, will derive some tout mileage from it. Nancy found it prudent to load up on NVDA Calls front running her push on the Hill to shive the Semi Bill through during the Summer Doldrums. She's managed to accumulate an outsized position @ $8 Million. The rest of the handlers are struggling to hide Fiscal irresponsibilities behind the scenes while talking tough - "We're not spending another dime as America is broke." And yet negotiations on a $2 Trillion package remain underway carving out a lesser amount, close enough for comfort. Biden’s Build Back Better agenda focuses on a few healthcare items, incentives to rein in climate change, and raising taxes on the wealthy. An end to talks that Biden and his senior advisers led last year with Manchin and other Democratic holdouts on the full $2+ trillion agenda for the Green Beans. More spending as the Inflation / DisInflation tug o' war is underway won't give way until the August / September timeframes. The Bond Markets will embrace it by skying yields again. This provides cover for a limited amount of time. A very limited amount of time. Time is not on the Rigger's side. A nasty whacking of the VIX is in trade, and frankly... the Indies are lagging by a bunch, so they have some catching up to do ahead of Tuesday's 4 PM Settlement. We'll see if 24.30 now holds for the M1 VX Futures. The prior range of 25.80 to 29.30 was crushed, VXN remains elevated to a higher degree, still well off its highs. ________________________________________________________________________________________________ Short Term, the next 10 trading days, we'll see how they range this - there should be a TOSS (Throw Over Short Squeeze) into Mega Cap EPS. 11767 to highs unfortunately will expand on either side... patience on this event as the Risks need to reveal themselves first. I have moved out to trading December NQ during RTH on the SELL, SEP as well, with minimal BUYs. Bonds remain on Dunk Tank Watch, it will require the Market to call the FED the FED again, it's a few weeks away. Patience. The Markets are consolidating a Downtrend Sell, Price has much further to Fall. Breaking down in the next 10 days, it amplifies the SELL.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ - 15 Minute / 75 Sqeaks, Waller & Bullard"We're sticking to 75 Bips.... we swear." The Bullhonrs @ our destructive Federal Reserve is attempting to calm the Short End of the Curve for Bonds. Bonds that continue to fail at every auction, every one, epic fail after an epic fail. _____________________________________________________________________________________ The Global Economy is in ruins, no amount of short-term Discount Rate jiggering will ever serve to correct the malaise the FED created. Cost of Sales remains a loser to Inflation - it exceeds Pricing Power. The Consumer is under extreme duress, passing along further increases will be met with a decline in Sales Volume, as Net Incomes collapse 30-40% - Profit... they indeed implode. This is the Factual state of affairs within all Corporations. Expenses are vastly outpacing Net Incomes. Presently, on average - Corporations are losing at a rate of decline of 163% as Costs of goods sold runs away as Pricing Power contracts markedly. Consumers resist after substitution effects give way. ______________________________________________________________________________________ Delta, by example, Net income slid ~50%, and yet they report a beat... rather a beating. Good look? Clearly not. More Layoffs. This is the overwhelming Trend across all Sectors... it is unequivocal. ________________________________________________________________________________________ TECH is not immune to the phenomena, it is not special. By way of Fact, it is far more susceptible to faster and further Ratio reductions - by a very large reduction. With EPS ahead - Big Tech can likely see another attempt at a large Throw Over Short Squeeze (TOSS) only to crash back to lower lows, significantly lower into September thru October. Apple's Gap @ 155 can fill, and Tesla can trade over its recent high although Eron is Burning down the House. This week's close is important, Buying the Dip is being faded in the extreme. ________________________________________________________________________________________ The Q;s are outperforming the Spoos for July, the rotation is being defended... for now. Tech gender confusion? AOC on the Block? Nah, just more identifying with distraction, delay and derailment. I see sub 10K NQ into Fall without breaking a sweat. Using DEC Futures for Sells regardless of where Junk.Co heads ST, it's going far lower. Bring on the Squeeze Wally, we're looking forward to it. The Economy... it's terminal, we'll see if Sentiment agrees and dips in below 50 or does the Chef at the BLS buys some time while the souffle rises only to collapse in on itself.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
4
Nasdaq 100 index - NQ1! shows signs of weaknessDespite the recent bounce in the price of NQ1! we remain bearish; indeed, we think the current price is attractive for the (re)entry of a short position. That is mainly due to the fact that fundamental factors which weigh on the U.S. economy did not change. Therefore, we still maintain our price target of 11 000 USD for the Nasdaq index. Illustration 1.01 The Nasdaq's retracement toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates that the index is undergoing a strong correction. However, the price drop below the upper bound of the channel adds to the bearish odds; additionally, it invalidates the bullish breakout that took place recently. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI is showing weakness; currently, it reverses to the downside, which is bearish. MACD is bullish. Stochastic is flattening. DM+ and DM- are neutral. The ADX is very low. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support and resistance levels for the Nasdaq 100 index. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, Stochastic, MACD, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame remains bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Tradersweekly
12
NQ - Daily / EPS Squeeze on Low Volumes / Trap Door Opens AgainWall Street and its beloved twists and turns are ever-present during the Summer Months. Apres June 21st, an environment of predatory and opportunistic Counter-Trends always seem to manifest into Labor Day, or so it went. I believe you may or can toss that out the window in the near future - prior to the FOMC spike hike July 27th. The Fed is poised to deliver another bigger-than-usual rate hike at its next meeting on July 27th. It desires to "tame inflation" now running at more than three times its 2% goal, with fears growing that the economy will tip into recession as a result. The Upper Decker kicker -Daly suggests - "The labor market is strong enough to take more rate increases." ______________________________________________________________________________ Is it? No, hell no. Let's prod into this steaming Pile of fecality. P.1 - "Recession" Every School of Economic Thought, every single one defines a Depression as 3 consecutive quarters of declining GDP. These axioms for every school of thought were defined when the United States was a Production-based Economy. Let's simply review the St Louis Fed by the Numbers: fred.stlouisfed.org GDP Peaked due to Stimulus - both Fiscal and Monetary In Q1 2021, it took 2 quarters for the Hangover to arrive. 4 Consecutive Quarters of declining GDP. Textbook Depression - Factually by the FED's own numbers. The Bump in Q1? The one the FInancial Media touted so highly... Complete and total Fraud - a cruel joke the Investing Public swallowed after having been told very early on - "It's all priced into the Markets." Real GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2022. 5 Quarters on Declining GDP with Number 6 On deck. ______________________________________________________________________________ P.2 The Strong Labor Market There has been an extreme number of Layoffs recently, largely ignored by the Investing Public. 3.6% Unemployment at a Labor Force Participation Rate of 61%. 372,000 "Jobs" Added. According to the Ministry of Labor and Statistics. Once again, numbers do not lie, liars do. 388,000 People left the Labor Force - Jobs Fell. Add in a seasonal Adjustment of .1% and we simply add 411,000. 799,000 People abandoned the Labor Force. Not a strong Jobs Number when the headlines are ignored and the Facts are accounted for in sum total. People DO NOT have an incentive to Participate. Ask yourself WHY. There will be another BLS adjustment in hindsight @ .2% or another 800,000 Jobs. There are 1.6 Million Jobs left for dead. Gone, Poof... Adios Jobs. Believe the Bullsh_t or do the Work required to determine the Facts. Conde Nast - No. of Employees Laid off: 90% - adios publishing, Vogue, Vanity Fair, et al. For All Tech - the Numbers are rather large, San Franciso is about to see the Unicorn haven status revoked entirely. Every Firm Mega, Large, Mid, Small is letting go of its Peeps. Adios, enjoy Van life in Slab City. ______________________________________________________________________________ What's the TRADE PLAN? Simple, fade this Junk Co Junk out through October, then again post Selections into February. We will peak this month on this fraudulent Counter-Trend off the SloMo into a very Mild FOMO. Participants will need to be dragged kicking and screaming back into this decidedly messed Trap n' Snap. The Economy is deteriorating at an outsized pace, it is a terminal decline. We'll see where this week's TOSS takes us, we're positioning into PUTS across the Curve and Loading Up on the VIX Contango to the Inversion. Counter-Trends in Depressions can have an all-or-nothing approach to them, why not, what's left to lose... Q2 will be extreme in the sheer show and tell of destruction. Prepare yourselves for the next very large move down. Good Luck and Be patient with entries.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
2