Equities is going to break the box after FOMCMy new view after FOMC, the shoulder head shoulder was invalid, now I focus to next resistant at 13000.
NQ
GDP RealityThe Federal Reserve will suggest they projected a slowdown in Economic activity.
Effect Indicated, Effect Observed.
Solid work.
_______________________________________________________________________
Outside of the Matrix, the Depression slumbers on within the confines of Real Sentiment.
....The Deal Breaker.
"7" was misstated - "6" is the GDI hedonic, it's been a long overnight Session, apologies.
NQ, Channel in channel !NASDAQ 100 E-mini Futures is showing a beautiful channel play !
There is a high slope minor up going parallel channel in low slope major up going channel. Index is reaching to upper top of both channels and reaction will be exciting.
Break out from down side of minor channel will probably triggers for downward move to base of major parallel channel. In this case possible break out of base of major channel signals more down side in whole market. MACD MAY also make a bearish cross. Please note latest bearish crosses in MACD followed by sharp decline in the index.
Possible True Break out of top of channels will trigger more up side move.
Which sides of channels will be broken? We may have a guess and predictions but wise action is to watch carefully and follow the market not our predictions.
This channel in channel setup sounds very interesting and I am happy to share this beauty of technical analysis with you.
Good luck.
Nasdaq 100 - NQ1! follows through with a relief rally A week ago, we abruptly warned investors that the stock market might be positioning itself for a significant bear market rally in the short term. We also clarified that we expected this move to range between 5-10%. Since then, the Nasdaq index has risen more than 5%. Currently, NQ1! (continuous futures) trades near 12 440 USD. We remain bearish in the medium/long-term; however, in the short-term, we think the index might continue higher and possibly test the resistance in the vicinity of 13 000 USD. This short-term view is supported mainly by technical factors.
Meanwhile, fundamental factors continue to stay bearish. Higher interest rates, economic tightening, and looming recession pose a threat to the U.S. economy. Indeed, we think the rally might be put to an end if the FED follows through with the rumored rate hike on 27the July 2022. That would further pressure the U.S. economy, which is already at a weak point.
In our opinion, the bear market rally's presence is also indicated by the enormous magnitude of moves across various stocks. Historically, bear market rallies tended to perform very well, often in double digits. That, in return, often led to confusing market participants who would later feed the cycle of buying and selling. Because of that, we think it is premature to say that the bear market is over.
Illustration 1.01
The bullish breakout occurred, further bolstering the bullish case in the short term.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bullish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX contains a relatively low value, which indicates that the trend is weak. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish but with a weak trend.
Illustration 1.02
The chart shows simple support and resistance lines.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bullish. MACD performed a bullish crossover. Stochastic reversed to the upside. DM+ and DM- remain bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is slightly bullish.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts.
Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically.
Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very
Real Terms.
Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none.
100% Assured:
Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed
like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify.
During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive
Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and
Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down.
It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of
Wealth Transfer. They would not.
The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling.
When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation.
That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift
to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement.
Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided
via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue
speculations.
It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human
behavior and incentives never actually change.
The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth
was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge.
Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later.
Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding.
There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be
tenable to the vast majority of Humankind.
All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see
this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems.
We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a
series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any
metric.
The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later.
Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme,
count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and
further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel.
__________________________________________________________
TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV.
Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower
than the half-baked UMich Numbers.
__________________________________________________________
What has caused every Crash of larger proportions?
Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits.
Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past
April 2022.
__________________________________________________________
We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes.
It is approaching with absolute certainty.
Nq - Short Interest / Gamma Squeee July 15 - July 21Call Buyers were able to earn off the July 15th Gamma Squeeze
into the Day prior to Expiry July 22nd, Friday.
Wall Street managed a near-perfect Trifecta on the move, flipping
the trade on its head into the Close Thursday.
Overbought Conditions moving into Friday assure the Squeeze has
a higher probability of Reversal.
__________________________________________________________
Kick 'em when they're down, kick 'em when they're up.
Perfection in Grifting MAximum Sh_t Mix
Algebra, brah... simple, basic Math that provided hope for the
Bulls and anxiety for the Bears.
It's a Counter-intuitive Trade on balance and what Traders need to
anticipate when we see large overbought readings for NQ.
We had that event with the Highest RSI of 2022 for NQ leading
into the TOSS.
___________________________________________________________
Aggravating - these perfect Pivots from Port to Starboard. The Boat
Tips and sends the mixed into the drink. Wall Street's Algos have become
extremely adept at siphoning off each and every spike in Liquidity within
the Options expected ranges.
This makes it difficult to determine exactly what they are doing on a
Weekly basis until Extremes are reached.
Unfortunately for most Options traders, the Pre NYSE has provided the
exit on Fridays if you are on the opposing side of the Ship.
____________________________________________________________
At present, it's a Holeshot range until the 2nd test of the recent highs
or an outright collapse to lower lows over the coming days to a week.
NQ - Daily / Highest RSI of 2022 Prints - Preppin for Uncle Ted Buy the Highs again fails.
Breakout... Rejected.
Pirce... Ejected.
Was it FOMO?
No, it was not. It was Wally dragging the Futes on a Low Participation
Day which Snap'd lower.
VX SM'd again.
______________________________________________________________
Bulls cheering the 10 Year?
The DEPRESSION Inversion is extremely persistent.
...And wreaking havoc everywhere, everywhere.
A FED Pivot, a "Bottoming Process"... blah blah and blah.
It took TESLA 3 Days to reverse from the Q1 Fraud. Remember
that dunk Fanbois? 1250 to 50% lower.
Subtle eh?
Memories are short.
SNAP isn't trying to shake it off, rather the appetite for destruction
was enhanced to Single Digit Midget Mode.
_______________________________________________________________
The TECH JUNK Co Junk is setting up for yet another large adjustment.
It will indeed Go - Full On Uncle Ted - Unibomber Jihadist.
Wall Street's Holy War on those seeking to Profit from incessant Greed
by Fading the Terrorists have conveniently unleashed RPGs at every
Soul willing to engage them.
Bone Drones circle above ready and willing to unleash hell from above,
be it those willing to bring down Airlines, Cruise Ships...
Wally simply goes full john Brennan and blows up every Wedding Party
in sight. Wed yourself to the SELL anywhere under Resistance and you
are fair game... you'll be dismembered from above.
Depeche Mode... be your own personal Jesus, resurrect yourself, I
Suppose.
JB's the on the Trigger, he'll just Rod of God yer ass, again and again.
________________________________________________________________
It's different this time, for the 7,120,127th time in Humanity's history.
_________________________________________________________________
With the Game now being moved out until 2023, Wally is desperately
trying to arrange the Media Bullhorns to engage further "Hope"
Man, f_ck that.
Idiotic.
Hypotheticals abound, unfortunately, they are designed to imply progress
which is NOT being made by any measure.
Below expectations is not a Positive, Lower the Bars lower and then suggesting
it's not as Bad as we thought, it's bad just nearly not as Bad as it could have been.
Buy the Bad.
No, KMA.
We have until July 27th to 28th to Pivot into the 2nd TOSS.
Time's up after that... into August 12th Pivot.
The sentiment is absolutely terminal and will is not about to reverse.
Globally Central Banks are getting Aggressive... ignore it at your own peril.
ES at 3200, where doth NQ end up... easy Sub 10K.
NQ - 4 Hour / Trend to Counter-TrendThe Casino is back baby~!
Beloved Flamingo participants are now able to Game their PS5's
at assorted Tables, regardless of recalls - Major screw up SONY
aka "Standard Oil New York" is lubricating the Slots, Tables and
Bottle Services to a select crowd of Insiders.
______________________________________________________
In the larger context of the Full High to Low Range, we see NQ has
managed to pop its little head over the very Negative 764 of the
Range.
Bullish?
No, a Counter Trend.
Can it reach the magical Negative 618?
It's possible, it's Summer, but is wholly dependent on degenerate
stupidity, of which there is not much left in the spank tank.
Add in the Corrupt Oligarchy Inbred Cult of Insiders and Political
Grifters and we've got one enormous and very Toxic cocktail for
further, irrational crazy.
The Range is quite large, given the large decline in NQ from 16767
to 11069.
_________________________________________________________
In reality, the Equity Market is a complete and total disaster.
_________________________________________________________
Investors and Money Managers continue to Buy this overpriced Junk,
albeit at a vastly slower pace.
Da Boyz are enjoying the ride, which is completing 3/3 or 3/5 higher.
The obvous Price objective is the Negative 618.
Any issues?
Yes.
In large downtrends Price rarely meets "Expectations"
Trade Safe, we're getting close to the even larger disruption dead
ahead which will bring prices into an extreme adjustment for
E, P, and S.
Europe has turned the corner after 8 years of failed experiments.
The FX accident will simply begin to unravel everything. Contagions
will spread with intense velocity.
Plan for it, earn from it, and be patient with it.
NasdaqI think we are in an ending diagonal within the primary 4th wave position. Inside of the larger intermediate ABC.
LTF daily chart looks like we have lost the lower TL of the ending diagonal in what should become an overthrow on the weekly TF.
Currently working on the Z wave which is the strongest wave of the WXYXZ pattern which usually sends the price up or down depending on whether or not the WXYXZ pattern is bullish or bearish.
After wave Z a strong reversal hits. This is what my chart implies.