NQ
SELL NASDAQ - BACK TO NORMAL BELOW 11kMost of Q3 stocks earning so far are green, maybe last positive earnings report if FED didn't cut interest rate, but food and energy crisis will drive prices higher and there will be no chance to decrease inflation other than rising interest rates to lower demand and so prices.
At this point, DXY strength will continue and US equities will bleed especially in tech sector.
NQ had only 50% retracement off todays lows!NQ is so much weaker then the ES, it got up to 50% retracement when ES had a perfect 61.8%
Also on this move down it made a lower low, def leading to my eyes.
ES has bullish setup, NQ has more room to go before its going to test the uptrend channel.
Todays close will be interesting. If weak, then tomorrow we can gap down
A little Elliot Wave Fun - are you ready for what's next?If you are like me, thinking the US markets will act as a safe haven for global capital, then you should clearly see the upside potential if these recent lows hold.
If not, then you are seeing the downside risks as more likely - and will want to understand the price structure in place that may prompt some consolidation.
IMO, we are amid a Wave 4 correction.
Any Wave 4 correction MAY turn into a new price wave structure (ending an ABC wave and starting a new price wave). So, the reality of the current global market trend is...
If my analysis is correct, we must rally to new all-time highs. For this to happen, a broad shift in investor sentiment needs to take place.
If my analysis is incorrect (related to this being a bottom for the US markets, then we would be anticipating a broad global crisis event related to debts/inflation and other emergencies.
I think the US Fed will move to a more moderate rate adjustment schedule while the global central banks deal with credit/debt issues. It does no good to crash the markets to stop inflation.
Just like in the 70s & 80s, inflation will weaken as rates stay elevated. It is just a matter of TIME and POLICY.
Capital WILL seek out the best investment vehicle in the future. I believe that will be the USD and US ASSETS.
What are your thoughts?
SPX, What is going on the market ??Which Bull Cycle is market correcting?
Answer to this question shows us where MAY be a good point to buy the dip with open eyes and how to be prepared for alternative scenarios.
As shown and explained on the charts, there are three alternative scenarios for now and all of them are valid although they have different probabilities. :
1. Best case scenario :
In this very bullish scenario , market is just correcting the bull run started after pandemic low. In this case, we are not to much far from the SPX bottom. 3195 to 3505 corresponding to 0.618 and 0.5 Retracement levels is the zone in which SPX will bottom. I give least possibility to this scenario but surely keep it in mind since it is still a valid one.
2. Moderate case scenario :
In this scenario, SPX is correcting the bull cycle started at 60.96 on 1974 and ended at ATH. In this case, SPX will reach to very unpleasant and painful target zone which is 1878-2439 corresponding to 0.618 and 0.5 retracement levels respectively. I give most possibility to this scenario. Proofs and evidences for this scenario( and two others of course ) are provided on my published video idea about DJIA (See related idea for more details).
3. Worst case scenario :
In this scenario, market has completed 90 years impulsive section and mother of all crashes is on the way. I prefer to pray for the market in this case instead of any explanations. May GOD Bless The Market.
Maybe it is time to leave the habit of (( Buy the Dip )) with closed eyes.
Good luck every body.
CPI/JOBS Blow a Hole in support - CRUSHED? Cycle Pattern UpdateIf you were watching the markets this morning or were caught unprepared for the huge CPI numbers (which lag), you were probably sweating bullets watching the NQ fall 400+ points in just a few minutes.
These reactionary types of price swings can be very dangerous for some traders - especially right now.
But, I want to alert you that the NQ has rallied nearly 200+ points off the morning lows and may turn positive by the close of trading on Friday.
Do any of you remember my Cycle Patterns? Take a look at 10-13 (CRUSH).
10-10: N/A
10-11: Inside/Breakaway
10-12: Harami/Inside
10-13: CRUSH
10-14: Gap Potential
I think the Gap Potential for tomorrow may reflect an upward price gap and may surprise traders if this support level holds.
Next week looks very interesting...
10-17: BreakAway
10-18: Carryover
10-19: Temporary Bottom
10-20: Top/Reisistance
10-21: Consolidation
I see quite a bit of volatility over the next 10+ days while Earnings and the Fed play central roles in driving price trends.
I'm still cautiously optimistic that we'll transition into a Christmas Rally phase throughout most of October. Watch for the US markets to try to setup a base/bottom over the next 4+ weeks.
If the market recovers from this morning's lows - lookout. That should be a fairly clear sign the US markets are defending this support level with a vengeance. Damn the Fed!
Pay attention. ES long term support may surprise markets (long)If you have not been paying attention, this is a good time to learn about a support level many are ignoring.
Yes, this support from 2011~2015, and the range I've drawn in BLUE, will likely prompt a relief/recovery rally (if support holds). If this support level fails, then we will see a much bigger breakdown in the markets over the next few months (before the Fed steps in to save the day - if they can).
Please understand this is a technical support level that may prompt a US Christmas Rally phase (if it holds).
There are no guarantees, but earnings should set the tone with extended volatility and, I suspect, fairly clear expectations headed into Q4:2022 & Q1:2023.
Get ready. If my research is correct, we will quickly transition into a Christmas Rally phase while the doom-n-gloomers sell the rally.
Should be fun.
Follow my research.
WEEKLY OVERVIEW on US Index, EURUSD and USDCADHi Traders,
This is my view for this week on:
- SP500 and NAS100
- EURUSD
- USDCAD
I remind you that this is only a forecast based on what current data are.
Therefore the following signal will be activated only if specific rules are strictly respected.
I really hope you liked this content and I would like to know what do you think about this analysis, so please use the comment section below to give me your point of view.
Pit
DISCLAIMER:
Trading activity is very dangerous. All the contents, suggestions, strategies, videos, images, trade setups and forecast, everything you see on this website and are the result of my personal evaluations and was created for educational purposes only and not as an incentive to invest. Do not consider them as financial advice.
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