SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-23 : GAP Breakaway PatternToday, I believe the SPY will consolidate downward after last week's Fed rate cut. I believe the next move for the SPY/QQQ will be higher, but I feel the markets need a pause phase to settle before moving into the rally phase near Wednesday (9-25).
Overall, I believe the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver will pause in early trading this week, then move into a continued rally phase as the markets digest the Fed rate cut.
Remember, this 50bp cut won't translate into any real immediate move of 2-4%. The way the markets work is they transition into the opportunities created by the rate cut. That means we'll see technology and speculative stocks attempt to bounce higher going into October 14-15 - maybe a bit further.
But, I do expect a wave of selling to hit just before the elections - so I'm warning everyone to stay cautious after October 11-14 as I believe the likelihood of a moderate Flash-Crash (Deep-V) type of event is very high.
Right now, the markets seem like they want to settle and attempt to break away from recent resistance areas. This is more evident on the QQQ chart.
Your opportunity to buy into lows over the next 2-3 days will allow you to really benefit from the next upward rally phase.
BTCUSD appears to be stalling/topping and will likely roll downward towards the 58k to 60k level over this same time. BTCUSD needs to settle into the next low before attempting to make another move higher (probably very late in October - after October 25-28).
Get some.
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NQ
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IIThis is Part II of Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion
The only reason the Fed lowered rates by 50bp this week is because the global markets are reeling under pressure from a strong US-Dollar and a strong US economy.
Without any relief, the new POTUS would enact new policies and push them through Congress, and the US would start another spending spree—pushing the US-dollar-based assets even higher and driving the capital flow into USD-based assets even further.
That capital flow is harming foreign economies, and global central banks have been trying to fight the tide of a very strong US dollar for more than two years.
If the Fed had not lowered rates, we would likely start to see severe pressure on global central banks and possibly even governments/economies over the next 24-48 months.
This is a way for the US Fed, and thus the US economy, from potentially being dragged into a global contagion event after 24+ months of reducing global money flow/function.
Simply put, the US Fed gave in to global central bank concerns related to a strong US economy/Dollar compared to their weaker currencies/economies and the pressure being exerted by a decoupling global economy.
Even though the lower US rates may provide some relief for the global market, the pressure on global currencies/economies may adapt to this "new normal" and continue to squeeze global central banks.
Time will tell.
Get some.
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Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp.
My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures.
So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar).
In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy.
Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis...
But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008.
The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt).
In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-20 : Breaking Up/Down PatternAfter watching yesterday's rally phase (which I believe was a relief rally driven mostly by foreign markets), I believe today's price move will be somewhat muted.
Yes, today's pattern is a Breaking (UP/DN) pattern, which suggests we may see some type of volatility event today. But overall, I believe yesterday's big price move was a volatility event, and today, the markets will struggle to identify a trend. I believe price will struggle for direction/trend today, and because of that, I'm urging traders to move assets away from the markets heading into this weekend.
I think it is better to move assets into CASH and prepare for trading next week. There is no reason to attempt to pick a position or trade heading into this weekend when we really don't know how the global markets will react to news or conflict events worldwide.
So, the best option today is to try to identify a few early trades, then move your assets into mostly cash and wait it out (till Monday).
I don't expect the markets to do anything besides consolidate below yesterday's highs.
Gold made the move up to 2635-2640 today - perfect. Pull profits today and wait for the next move.
BTCUSD is a bit higher today, but I believe it will pause - just like almost everything else today.
The global markets are still digesting the rate cut. We'll see what happens early next week - but today will probably be a stalling/pause in trend.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-19 : Top-Resistance PatternToday's pattern is a Top-Resistance pattern.
After yesterday's Fed rate cut and the reaction, overnight, by the global markets, this top pattern suggests the markets will find a peak today and roll downward, away from that peak level.
Overall, I'm not too worried about a major crisis top today. I believe the Fed has unchained the US/Global markets a bit with the 50bp rate cut.
My custom indexes show the US/Global markets have moved into a new US-Dollar-based demand phase at the same time we are seeing a valuation-base and speculative-based price appreciation phase.
That means we are the following is taking place:
_ US Dollar is still stronger than most other currencies and demand for US-Dollar-based assets is still dominant.
_ Price appreciation is based on a renewed valuation accumulation phase. This is where traders see the US stock market as moderately undervalued and begin to accumulation based on discounted valuation levels.
_ Price appreciation is also based on a new speculative trend phase - showing more of a RISK ON mode where traders are chasing the upward price trends a bit more aggressively.
Putting all of that together, ahead of a US POTUS election event and the recent decrease in FFR, I think we are seeing a perfect environment for a MELT-UP trend to continue into a moderate early Santa Rally.
The one thing that could derail this momentum is some unexpected or crisis event that pops up out of nowhere. So be aware there are still risks.
Now, let's sit back and enjoy a rally day while we wait for confirmation of the breakaway high (FPT breach to the upside).
Get some.
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What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts.
In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation).
What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice.
Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe).
Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event.
There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders.
Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events.
Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions).
Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly.
I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart.
Get some.
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NQ idea $$$ no need for MapBook "Perseverance is not a long race; it is many short races one after the other." — Walter Elliot
I predict will be heading back to the support level where market makers left sellers looking very sad.
(19415 area)
If you were looking at Bookmap which I am not 9 times out of 10 it would show there are orders waiting in at area.
They have to drop price and come back and get that liquidity they left down in the 19415 area. (W) formed
Thanks and hopefully this information benefits you .... like share and follow chat !!!!
#TradeGod
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days.
Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up.
So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision.
While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%.
I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021.
Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now.
In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17 : Wednesday is CriticalIf you were paying attention to my SPY Cycle Patterns today - boy, a beautiful "top" pattern setup today. Just like my SPY Cycle Patterns predicted more than 3 years ago.
If you've been following my research, you already know I've identified dual excess Phase Peak patterns that should resolve into a rollover topping pattern, sending the SPY/QQQ moving downward towards the end of this week (Sept 19-20). If the current Ultimate High price level continues to act as resistance, there is a real potential for the SPY/QQQ to move into a downward momentum breakdown the following week (Sept 23-30).
But, the one thing that throws the whole topping pattern into a mess is that the RSP has already broken to new ATHs and appears to be attempting to hold above the previous high-price fractals. Thus, we are seeing the equal-weighted S&P already moving into a broad value-based rally phase.
Watch this video to understand why I continue to suggest traders avoid engaging in any big trades or get greedy, thinking they are going to WIN BIG on their trades. Yes, I'm sure some people will hit their targets over the next 3-7+ days, but others will get run over (hard).
Unless you really like taking the risk of getting run over by the markets or market makers, I suggest sitting back and reading a good book while the markets or traders struggle to find their exits.
One thing is certain: the markets will move into a trend by the end of September—either into a breakaway rally phase or into a rollover topping phase.
You'll have lots of time to position for these trends because my research shows the next cycle phase is October 7-10 (nearly two+ weeks away).
So, why stress out about tomorrow's Fed Rate decision? Just sit back and wait for the markets to give you a clearer understanding of what's next.
I'll create another morning video tomorrow morning.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided.
Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well.
But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups.
Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern).
There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure.
At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate.
This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them.
Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher.
Get some.
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SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend.
A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area.
In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider.
If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well.
The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns.
Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now.
Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now.
Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD.
I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections.
Get some.
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NQ-SP500-NKD-BTC, The wave has startedCME_MINI:NQ1! BINANCE:BTCUSD
CME_MINI:ES1! CME:NKD1!
The wave has started. It's slow, and choppy as they move through the time frames, so if you play the longer time frames, be patient. If you play the shorter time frames, ensure you take profit along the way so you're not chopped up
Video covers – NQ – SP500 – NKD – BTC
ES (S&P) – 100 pt price blocks (Bold Yellow Lines)
NQ (Nasdaq) – 500 pt price blocks
NKD (Japanese Market) – 1000 pt price blocks
BTC (Bitcoin) – 5000 pt price blocks
Legend
Bold Yellow Lines: Top and Bottom of Price Blocks
Dotted Blue Lines: 50% of any Price Block
White Solid Line: 20 EMA
Yellow Solid Line (not price block): 50 EMA
Blue Solid Line: 200 EMA
Method: Follow the MACD and the 200 EMA. Generally speaking, if the MACD is negative or heading negative, the price should be below the 200 EMA or heading below it, and visa versa, as it goes up to go positive, so should the price, and you should be targeting a price (at a significant level – price block) above the 200 EMA.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours.
I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum.
What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options.
Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September.
I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders.
OK. Happy Monday.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern.
It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern).
Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not.
Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point.
Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks.
Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election.
Plan, prepare, and Get Some.
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Nq1! Nasdaq Long term ForecastWhile many switch to a bullish bias for CME_MINI:NQ1! because of expectations of a interest rate cut on 18th of September, I remain bearish because markets price in before these events and the rate cut was expected for a long time.
We see on the daily chart a double bottom, which is market makers' favorite liquidity to take out.
Again on the daily chart, we see that price took out the buy-side liquidity and now is in the Daily Optimal Trade Entry of the last down move.
I expect to see the double bottom to be taken out in the upcoming weeks.
Please note that this can take a lot of time and we can still see a full recovery to All Time Highs before we take out the double bottom.
You can boost the idea for free if you have a paid plan and if the idea helped you.
Thanks for reading I wish you all good and safe trades.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD.
This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos.
I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593.
In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October.
But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day.
I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos.
This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY.
I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows.
Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility).
Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move.
Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election.
Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-11 : Inside BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open within yesterday's price range and attempt to "break away" from yesterday's range.
I still believe we are moving into a secondary Excess Phase Peak pattern (flagging higher), which will prompt the SPY to attempt to rally to near 560. Because of this, I'm expecting a continued upward push toward the 558-560 area before it stalls and tops out.
I suggest traders prepare for a lot of morning volatility today in early trading, followed by a strong push into higher price trending (upward) as today's BreakAway plays out.
Gold and Silver are making a decent move higher - as I suggested. Remember, Gold and Silver will peak out within the next 4~5 days and will likely reach a sudden peak/top after Sept 20th, resulting in a quick, deep-V type collapse.
I expect metals to move into that Deep-V base/bottom before October 11~14 (roughly).
The US markets and Metals will suddenly flash-crash as we move closer to the US elections. This move will likely be news or event-related. But I feel it is inevitable at this point.
Bitcoin will likely follow gold/silver and move into a moderate flash crash mode nearly simultaneously as metals.
Get ready. This flash crash trend should be a great opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
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Nasdaq (NQ): Nearest Support Line 1000 Points AwayThe Nasdaq (NQ) is far from its nearest green line support, sitting a full 1000 points away. Traders should monitor how price behaves in the current zone, as a move toward this distant level could set the stage for a significant shift. Will the market hold, or is a deeper pullback coming?
Drop your thoughts below and follow for more updates as the market unfolds!
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always trade responsibly!*
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall.
I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly.
This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels.
Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days.
If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price.
If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels.
Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup.
Get some.
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Navigating the Nasdaq's Turbulence: A Peek into the Week AheadAs we head into the trading week, let’s zero in on some critical levels on the CME_MINI:NQ1! Nasdaq that are making the rounds in savvy financial circles. With a bit of a bearish vibe from the get-go, understanding these might just set the stage for some strategic plays.
Top Tier: 19,300 to 19,400
Keep your eyes peeled on this upper bracket. It's where the ceiling might just come crashing down with selling pressure. A lot hinges on how prices react here—will they retreat or break through unexpectedly?
Middle Ground: Around 19,200
Here lies the Fair Value Gap, a zone that often acts as a decision-making hub for the bulls and bears alike. If prices struggle to push past this, it might just reinforce the gloomy outlook for the week.
Entry Alert: Near 19,100
Thinking of going short? This could be your spot. The Optimal Trade Entry point around 19,100 is where the action could heat up, signaling a strong entry if bearish momentum continues.
Watch Your Step: Around 18,730
This level has history. It's served as a balance point before and could either prop up prices for a rebound or give way under bearish pressure, leading to further declines.
Base Camp: 18,300 to 18,550
Down here, if the floor gives way, expect the bears to rush in even stronger. It's a critical zone to gauge just how far the current sentiment could drag the market down.
___________________
Abbreviations
D FVG - Daily Fair Value Gap
D OTE - Daily Optimal Trade Entry
Eq 4h - Equilibrium 4 hours
OTE 4h - Optimal Trade Entry 4 hours
NDOG - New Day/Week Opening Gap
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24.
Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital.
Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event.
No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days.
The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out.
Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output.
I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom.
Get some.
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