NAS100 incoming Rally!It's been a minute but here is a quick Freebie for y'all! Enjoy! We have been destroying CME_MINI:NQ1! lately on all of our funded accounts.
Quick Scalp Trade:
Entry@ 18273.75
Take Profit #1 @ 18341.00
Stop Loss @ 18266.50
Larger Swing Trade:
Entry@ 18273.75
Take Profit #2 @ 18672
Stop Loss @ 18104.25
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NQ Bearish Structure | Looking for a possibly 2-legged pullbackNQ has broken its structure to the downside, disrupting the bullish pattern that had been ongoing for a while.
I am looking for an hourly two-legged pullback to the ~70% retracement zone before making a new low, since the price has broken above a prior lower high. This suggests that buyers want to see higher prices before we possibly make a lower low.
There is an hourly demand zone around 18200-18170, which I suspect buyers will try to use to push prices higher.
NASDAQ Correction not over yet but won't be a big one either.Nasdaq (NDX) started a correction last week (see our March 12 idea below) which was after a rejection at the top of the multi-month Channel Up that transitioned into a Head and Shoulders (H&S) on the lower time-frames (4H) and broke below February's Channel:
Despite the early bounce today, we don't expect this correction to be over, but won't be a lengthy one either. On the 1D time-frame we set a 17130 Target and that seems to be almost in perfect sync with what the 1W time-frame shows us, which is at most a test of the 17,000 - 16,850 range.
What's the importance of this? Well that is the horizontal level of the previous November 2021 All Time High (ATH), i.e. a Resistance, that may now turn into a Support. As this 1W analysis shows us, since NDX started trading inside a log Channel Up since 2010 (that later broke upwards thus is best viewed here by the Fibonacci Channel levels), the prior Resistance has been tested and held 9 times (with the exceptions being the March 2020 COVID flash crash and of course more recently the 2022 inflation Bear Cycle).
The key on those sequences has been the formation of Lower Highs on the 1W RSI when done above the overbought barrier (70.00). The 2nd Lower High has basically been the technical sell signal that called for the formation of the medium-term Top.
At the same time though keep in mind that on all those medium-term corrections, the index touched the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), with the only exception being the September 2020 pull-back. The 1W MA50 is currently at 15500 (but rising aggressively), considerably lower than the 17,000 - 16,850 Support Zone. The difference maker in any case would be the Fed's outlook towards potential rate cuts this year. The slightest mention of potential cuts either this Wednesday or later, would be enough not to let the index free fall to the 1W MA50.
In any case, this chart shows long-term investors when to consider to take some profits (RSI Lower Highs) and then when to have the patience to wait a few weeks - 2 months before entering again. On the long-term we expect a minimum repeat of the September 2020 - November 2021 rally towards the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result our long-term target on Nasdaq is 27000.
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NASDAQ Channel up transitioning to a Head and Shoulders.Nasdaq broke and closed today a (4h) candle under the MA200 (4h) for the first time January 8th.
By doing so it completed a Head and Shoulders formation, which is a bearish reversal pattern.
Its target is technically the 2.0 Fibonacci extension.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 17200 (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, located between Supports 1 and 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is inside a Channel Down since the start of Nasdaq's Channel Up, which is a technical Bearish Divergence. It shows that the bullish momentum has lost its strength.
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NASDAQ Top of the 1year Channel Up. Needs to correct.Nasdaq (NDX) is almost at the top of the long-term Channel Up that started back in January 2023 and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting the current Bullish Leg since November 03 2023.
That is a very aggressive wave that is most likely coming to an and as technically it resembles the previous Bullish Leg that peaked on July 18 2023 on a similar (as you can see) structure, which then corrected initially by -8.50% to the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line).
As a result, we are turning bearish and our target is 17130, which is Support 1 and where most likely contact can be made with the 1D MA100 on a marginally less fall than -8.50%.
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Indices:🔴Is it the major market structure shift?🔴
Well As you can see, we can see the SMT here so we can expect a downtrend.
The first condition is, that we see the price close the candle body below the bullish FVG, only then can we expect the price to go lower to collect the sell-side liquidity.
After that, If the first condition occurs, we need the candle closure below the sell side liquidity, then the price activates the bearish breaker block and the breaker can act as a strong resistance and pull the price down.
💡Wait for the update!
🗓️10/03/2024
🔎 DYOR
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NQ1! SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the NQ1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 18052.50 level.
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NASDAQ: Pullback towards the Fed Rate day has started.Nasdaq flashed a strong bearish signal this week as the 1W RSI crossed under the MA trendline for the first time since November 7th 2023. While at it, the price hit the top of the 2023 Channel Up. The last timw we saw those taking place was on August 3rd 2023, a little after the HH top. A Channel Down may now emerge as the correcting wave to the 1D MA100 and possibly beyond. But for the time being, we want to time a Low on the Fed Rate Decision date on March 21st. Its bottom is our target (TP = 17,100), a potential contact with the 1D MA100, lower Support Zone.
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NASDAQ Correction is starting, at least to 17350.Nasdaq / US100 is near the top of its 14 month Channel Up.
As you can see, the patterns between the only two bullish legs of the Channel Up are similar and when the July 19th 2023 top was formed, the index fell on its first bearish wave by -8.75% on its 0.236 Fibonacci level.
Sell now and target 17350 (0.236 Fibonacci) and if it closes a 1W candle under it, resell and target 16800 (-8.75% decline).
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NASDAQ-Feb 2024 3 Days remaining!Nasdaq seems on a fast track to close Feb 2024
And still a lot can happen in 3 days, which is the remaining time left to close the month.
One key point to make:
While Price continues to deliver within Bullish structure.
Weekly Price has been unable to close above 18071.
Current momentum is expected to continue to push price higher, but noting price's inability to close a weekly candle above this price area will open the possibility of repricing down.
It is what it is till its not
Price is expected to continue its up-close trend until it shows clear indication of weakness.
Looking for a possible Bearish Mon-Tues structure, setting the stage for Bullish continuation Wed-Thu.
Weakness in Bullish momentum. Did we see the top for Nasdaq?Lets look at CAPITALCOM:DXY
Currently with a Bullish structure and slow build up Long.
Seems it is attempting to reach that Monthly Area low.
Bullish Dollar=Bearish Equities....Right?
Well this has not been the case these particular past couple of weeks.
We have not seen with clarity the inverse correlation between DXY and Equities. In fact everything has been manipulated up.
Yes! I wrote manipulated do not get hung up on the word.
Back to Indices.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
CME_MINI:ES1!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
These have a strong Bullish structure. NQ is showing signs of repricing with this pullback.
-Is it sufficient to slow down current Bullish momentum?
-Is NQ leading the indices in a reversal?
These are all valid questions, yet we do not have enough data to validate either or.
Bearish Equities seasonality could have kicked in.
This is the week of confirmation or at the very least for price to provide some sort of hint.
My targets for NQ providing price action confirms it are either a repricing to 17107.25 or a break of Highs.
-If we take out lows first then I would expect price to rally once again and make another attempt at Highs.
-An attempt at highs at the beginning of the week will look favorable for the Bears salivating over the Volume Void right at 17107.25
Here is a view of Weekly Charts for:
ES
YM
NQ
NASDAQ: Channel Up peaked. Correction needed.Nasdaq is forming a new HH at the top of the 1 year Channel Up with the 1W timeframe overbought technically (RSI = 70.596, MACD = 766.660, ADX = 46.154) and the RSI in particular under LH and inside the red Resistance Zone. This is a bearish signal, validation would come upon a 1D MA50 bearish crossing. Our target is the 1D MA100 (TP = 16,850).
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NASDAQ Is this a Double Top? Potential decline to 16900.Nasdaq (NDX) tested and was rejected last Friday on the 18100 Resistance, which was formed by the February 12 High. This is a technical Double Top formation and as long as it holds, there is high probability for the index to start the new Bearish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up pattern.
In fact the recent February 12 High is technically as close of a Higher High for this Channel Up as possible and was formed while the 1D RSI was on Lower Highs since December 19 2023 (Bearish Divergence), similar to the July 18 2023 High. The similarities of the Bullish Leg that started on the October 26 2023 bottom with the previous that formed the July 18 2023 High, are in fact very strong.
As a result, it is very probable to see a symmetrical -8.50% decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the Support 2 level but we keep a shorter-term perspective due to the overall bullish dynamics this year and our short is 'only' targeting the 0.3 Fibonacci retracement level (as with the August 18 2023 Low) at 16900.
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