NASDAQ Hit the ATH but has one more push to give.Nasdaq (US100) hit yesterday the 16772 All Time High (ATH) level, reaching in the process our 16680 short-term target as shown on our December 11 call (see chart below):
The dominant pattern on the 4H time-frame is a Channel Up and the price is trading on its middle. As long as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) supports, any pull-back is a buy opportunity for at least one more push marginally above the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, as it happened on the November 14 pump. Our target is 17300.
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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
Nasdaq Breaking highs! Entryy??It looks like NQ should break the weekly highs here and it should be looking backwards be a strong push ahead but because of the current market conditions this could simply be a liquidity grab before going back downwards especially if interest rates are raised next quarter.
Would I swing here for the long run? Absolutely not! Wait for some kind of a confirmation for long term entries. Super risky to hold if you're up. At least take partials if you are.
Day traders and short term swing traders should in my opinion, have a bullish bias to start this week and look for bullish entries if given any retracement + entry signals according to your strategies.
That's what I see, what do you guys think?
(Reason for current bullish move: Ease on interest rates, declining USD and golden zone fib retracement, "historically" showing upwards momentum after so there should be many buyers in the market.)
All time highs on NDX expected After holding a Optimal trade entry on the monthly chart - expect All time highs on NDX with higher target above in a few years. It will not be in 1 shot - but its something to keep in mind.
We will need to take it day by day, month by month, quarter to quarter and take seasonalities into account. Expect some type of pullback at some point- but will evaluate important levels to accumulate when possible to continue working toward the targets. Personally i day trade so will grab pieces of the pie day by day.
NQ1! SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
NQ1! pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 12H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 16158.75 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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NASDAQ One opportunity to target 17300Nasdaq is trading inside a Channel Up.
The current Rising Wedge which is dring the price on the current bullish leg resembles that of October 27th - November 7th.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Sell below the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 17300 (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which was the target top of the mid November rise).
2. 15700 (Support 1).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) sequences among the two bullish legs are identical, confirming the bullish sentiment towards the 1.618 Fibonacci.
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US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis.
Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone.
Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs surpassing ~16770 November 2021 high.
Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~15690 trading range (yellow dashed) + descending trend-line (light blue) towards 78.6% Fib / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone.
Bearish extension target(s) = descending trend-line (white dotted) / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
NASDAQ: Channel Up soon to test the ATH.Nasdaq is almost overbought again on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.937, MACD = 245.100, ADX = 36.889) but that shouldn't affect it much as it is trading on the lower band of the November Channel Up. Leg 1 of the bullish sequence that made the Nov 15th HH extended to the 2.382 Fibonacci level. As the 1D RSI is identical to that Leg and shows that we are roughly halfway there, we remain bullish aiming again at the 2.382 Fib extension (TP = 16,840) which is marginally over the All Time High of 16,780.
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NASDAQ Targeting the ATH minimumNasdaq established its price action over the 4hour MA50 again.
A Channel Up is emerging, and could be a very aggressive one as the 4hour RSI is already overbought.
You can buy now and target at least the 16785 ATH.
If the price breaks over it and after re-testing it holds, re buy and target 17850 (+13.65% rise like the first leg of the Channel).
Previous chart:
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NASDAQ Last obstacle before a Christmas rally.Nasdaq (NDX) completed the short-term pull-back we called on our latest November 29 analysis (see chart below), hitting our 15750 target and then rebounding:
This rebound can seasonally be the start of the end-of-the-year rally, which the market calls 'Santa' or 'Christmas' rally. However, one last Resistance level remains before it is confirmed and that is the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the (blue) Channel Up, which happens to also be synched with the Lower Highs trend-line of the 4H RSI.
If the index closes a 4H candle above it, we will buy and aim for a +6.34% rally (from the bottom), which has been the minimum bullish sequence since June, and target 16680 (Resistance 1), which is the December 28 2021 High, essentially the first Lower High of the 2022 Bear Cycle. A notch higher on that rally, the index can even test the 16770 All Time High.
On the other hand, if Nasdaq breaks below the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down first, most likely will have made contact with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) by then, we will sell instead and target 14900 (-7.60% from the Lower High, which is the minimum short-term decline since June).
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NQ1!, Contract Rollover to RescueGap ups/downs are a strategy used to overcome stubborn levels. The most recent contract rollover is no exception. Opening way above the inflection level guaranteed a bullish session for the NFP day (12/8). The market is positioned for an upside continuation. We may still see some consolidation in the upper part of the channel, representing a clear bull flag formation, before a final push through 16320 inflection level. Perhaps the most anticipated Santa rally this season.
A less anticipated scenario: the price returns in the lower part of the channel and consolidates. That may lead to the channel breakdown.
As a day trader I focus on rotations only, I trade rotations. What causes them is not my concern. I took awhile to adapt to this way of thinking. I can anticipate a potential rotation based on the technicals though but the ultimate word is left to the market. Prediction vs anticipation is a big topic.
A smaller timeframe is used to watch the price action around an inflection level to confirm a beginning of a rotation.
Abstracting the price action through the lens of rotations keeps a trader less biased and ultimately less irritated when the market ignores the collective consensus.
A random thought.
In the age of informational flood it is a very difficult job to be a stoic trader. A trader does not need to be obsessed with tools and indicators to be profitable, he needs to stay objective. A simple rule: a support is support until's broken will make you money in the long run and this is an objective way of trading.
Cheers.
12/9/2023
Mind the Gap. And an interesting way to share my personal chartHello
I have inserted my personal work chart for this am so I can share exactly what I'm looking at.
I just discovered this today.
There is a gap below current price that should be watched.
I don't suspect many are trading today but if you are, good luck.
Also be mindful trading view is rolling over contracts automatically on charts EARLY and this will give discrepancies between Dec and forward month. I didn't appreciate that this morning.
NQ View pre HolidayHello everyone
This is likely the last analysis/ forecast until next month/ year.
As always, I am monitoring DXY for confirmations of movement on the NQ.
I am bullish above the Order Block highlighted, and the supports noted.
If we trade below the order block, I will be looking for a dip into the bullish FVG's marked as support.
I believe a high probability scenario is that we will dip on Sunday open/ Monday and bounce from the OB or other supports.
DOL are the FVG's above.
Notice below all of this bullish move we had tapped into a monthly Bullish FVG, (I have marked the .5 of that )
I have marked M, D, W to denote which strength the various gaps are.
There are several news drivers/ economic numbers coming out this week that will likely be catalysts for moves.
I hope this is helpful, and that you have a fantastic trade week!
NASDAQ: Healthy pullback serving as end of year rally vessel.Nasdaq is pulling back today after the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross and the 1D technical outlook turned neutral (RSI = 54.419, MACD = 183.360, ADX = 45.724). This has so far achieved at offsetting the previous overbought condition on the chart. Technically it can be a HH rejection on a newly emerging Channel Up. This can serve as a buy opportunity either on the S1 level or if it is extended on the S2 and the 1D MA50 for the end of year rally. Our target is the ATH (TP = 16,775).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping.
QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally.
Trading scenarios:
Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone.
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\
Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib
Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
📈 Nasdaq Future Insights 🚀The Nasdaq Future presents an intriguing chart. Following the completion of Wave 3 on July 19, 2023, we encountered a complex Wave 4 correction.
Since October 26, we've witnessed a parabolic surge, indicative of the initiation of Wave 1. Interestingly, there hasn't been a significant correction resembling a potential Wave 2. Therefore, I anticipate a downward movement to form Wave A, followed by a surge surpassing Wave 1 for Wave B. Subsequently, we might witness another dip before the completion of Wave C.
These corrective phases set the stage for the next upward trajectory toward new All-Time-Highs. Stay tuned for potential entry points during the corrective waves. 🕵️♂️🔥
NASDAQ Sell signal on 4H.Nasdaq is testing the MA50 (4h) since yesterday as the Rising Resistance weighs.
The middle line (dashed) of the Channel Up is the final level of Support before a short term pull back.
The Bearish Divergence on the RSI (4h), which is inside a Channel Down, is in favor of this short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell if the price crosses under the dashed middle of the Channel Up.
Targets:
1. 15450 (Rising Support).
Tips:
1. The MACD (4h) is also descending while the index rises (another Bearish Divergence) and is about to form a Bearish Cross. Additional sell signal.
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NASDAQ Small pull-back before final rally.Nasdaq (NDX) exceeded all expectations this month as following our November 01 buy signal (see chart below), not only did it hit the target but broke aggressively above the former Channel Down:
Since November 21 basically it has turned sideways, in an attempt to normalize the previous overbought 1D technicals. It has already hit the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and that is the first sign of exhaustion. If the 4H RSI gets rejected on its Lower Highs trend-line (testing it today), then expect a short-term pull-back, which we will short and target 15750 (-2.25% decline and above Support 1).
We take this target as during a similar 4H RSI Lower Highs rejection (September 15), NDX decline initially by -2.25%, similar also with the October 12 rejection. We expect this symmetry to play out at least on the short-term before the end-of-the-year rally, not necessarily on the long-term, where we need to see a 1D candle closing below Support 1, in order to signal a short towards the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
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NQ OverviewThe NQ 1-hour chart depicts a clear trading range between the key resistance at 16,085 and the current key support at 15,940, with a prevailing bullish sentiment within this range. Below the key support, a previously tested demand zone ranging from 15,930 to 15,890 exists. Shorting into this demand zone carries high risk, requiring a loss of the key support level at 15,830 to trigger a substantial pullback.
My trading plan involves exploring short scalping opportunities at the upper range boundary, with conservative targets of 5-10 points, given the elevated risk associated with shorting. Additionally, I plan to consider long positions at key support and demand levels, contingent on the continuation of demand and support signals.
It's noteworthy that NQ is potentially forming a bullish flag pattern with support at 15,940, characterized by lower highs forming into support, suggesting a possible breakout. The question of how long NQ can sustain its ascent before a pullback is a valid one. However, it's essential not to let speculative scenarios influence your bias and instead focus on trading based on observed price action and chart analysis, which currently supports a bullish sentiment.
NASDAQ Megaphone top and Bearish Cross call for a pull back.Nasdaq / US100 is trading inside a Megaphone pattern and has just hit its top.
A similar Megaphone in late 2022 - early 2023 got rejected on a proportional (to today's) top, followed by a 1day MACD Bearish Cross, which pulled the price back to the 1day MA50.
We are about to form a 1day MACD Bearish Cross on that exact same level.
Sell now and target the 1day MA50. Projected contact around 15400.
Previous chart:
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NQ 4-Hour Bull FlagA potential bull flag is emerging on the NQ 4-hour chart, with the 15945 level acting as critical support. As the market experiences a period of consolidation, we observe a gradual descent towards this support zone. This consolidation phase, following a prolonged bull run, raises questions about the market's next move: will the bull flag lead to another upward leg, or are we poised for a necessary pullback? Both NQ and ES are currently in a cooling-off phase, forming additional breakout patterns. On a higher time frame, the key support to monitor remains at the 15945 zone.