The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for January12 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
Actionable insights for Gold, Crude Oil, Nasdaq & DXY.
NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
MNQ Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25 Price delivered precisely to the Daily Discount Draw on Liquidity which was the D BISI 50% quadrant at 20,875.75 underneath that nice triple bottom PDLs.
Now the question to ask is does price justify staying inside that BISI or will price cut through the BISI and continue to reach for the SSL at 20,640.00?
Lets continue to watch and see if price reverses or continues lower from here.
This week I got to experience first hand why its good to have a Directional Bias and why its a good idea to stick with it regardless of being right or wrong.
- First always remember as a traders we do not control outcome only our performance and if we get one day wrong then thats okay because its only one day in my trading career not my whole trading career. Also its very important to have methodology or an edge that can produce consistency as that will help aid the mental battle of missing trades or getting the bias wrong and not getting the framework to take a trade. In the beginning it might feel bad but keep in mind the game is not capital gain but capital preservation. If your methodology is consistent in terms of producing setups then missed setups or hitting SL should not worry you as there will always be another day to trade and get a setup.
-Another key thing I want to touch on is the peace of mind you get when sticking to your Directional Bias. When your looking for example only Bullish scenarios and ignore all Bearish ones then your not over here investing mental capital on a trade that you know is counter to the HTF Bias and could easily hit your SL. Watching price action also becomes enjoyable as well because you don't care to be right or wrong so if your right and your setup forms then take the trade and if your wrong then just turn the charts off and trade another day as there is plenty of trading opportunities through out the year.
$NQ & ES BearishThe NQ and ES on the monthly chart showed signs of rejection, indicating a possible correction toward a PDA located in the discounted region of this timeframe. Consequently, on the daily chart, there was a shift in the price delivery state, now seeking this liquidity as well as the daily sell sides. We maintain a bearish outlook for the assets, but it is important to note that the price may correct toward the premium region of the daily chart, seeking new liquidity to build momentum and ultimately reach the monthly chart objective: a more pronounced drop.
Prepare Nasdaq for Monday on weekend 25.01.11Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
Briefing Results
Chart:
Buy Perspective:
No buy entry signals were triggered during session.
Sell Perspective:
While the initial blue ascending trendline break could have been a sell entry, the timing occurred outside of market hours (during the Asian, European, and U.S. sessions), rendering the move insignificant.
Thus, the sell entry was based on the extended yellow ascending trendline. Upon its breakdown, the target was exceeded, resulting in a total drop of 325 points and approximately $6,500 in profit per contract.
Daily Chart Analysis (Perpetual Contract)
Chart:
On the daily chart:
Lagging Span (Chikou Span):
The Lagging Span has definitively entered below the candles, suggesting a high probability of a trend reversal.
For a full reversal, the price must break above 21555.
Current Position:
The price is currently at 21016.
The Lagging Span suggests the potential for upward movement toward 21437 on Monday, barring further breakdowns.
Green Box:
Previously acted as a support zone, but the red box candlesticks broke below, creating new lows.
Ichimoku Cloud:
While the price has entered the cloud, it continues to close above the upper boundary, maintaining support for now.
Key Moving Averages:
Without a gap-up on Monday, the daily candle is likely to open below the 20 EMA and 60 EMA.
Major resistance levels are at 21090 and 21440, respectively.
March Futures Contract Analysis
Chart:
While largely similar to the perpetual contract:
The price closed within the Ichimoku Cloud.
Intraday trading on Friday even saw the price break below the cloud’s lower boundary.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 21213 (cloud upper boundary).
Support: 20930 (already broken once, so its strength as support is questionable).
Key Daily Chart Patterns
Chart:
Two notable patterns emerge on the daily chart:
Descending Triangle (Red Lines):
Height: ~6.8%.
The pattern broke downward on Friday, suggesting a potential target at 19594 (6.8% below the breakdown point).
Falling Wedge (Blue Lines):
While this indicates a corrective downtrend, a breakout above the blue box could signal a return to the highs or even new all-time highs.
Both patterns offer insight into market sentiment but require confirmation to act upon.
Monday Trading Strategy
Chart:
Buy Perspective:
Entry Trigger: A breakout above the green box + 21206.
Context: The price has shown resistance at 21206 following a rebound and subsequent decline.
Targets: Resistance levels are marked on the chart; verify specific price points on the chart’s left side.
Key Consideration:
Without a breakout above 21562 (light blue box), the overall trend remains bearish.
Any potential buy would likely be a temporary retracement within a broader downtrend.
Sell Perspective:
Recommendation: Monday may be best suited for observation rather than aggressive sell entries.
Risks: There are no clear support trendlines, and selling on a break of the previous low carries considerable risk.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is a dynamic and unpredictable market where what appears to be a correction may not actually be one.
Recent declines can trigger panic among traders, but it’s critical to approach the situation with patience and a calm, strategic mindset. Avoid emotional decisions and focus on the bigger picture.
Trade smart and stay prepared for any market movements. 🚀
MNQ!/NQ1! (EARLY) Day Trade Plan for 01/10/25MNQ!/NQ1! (EARLY) Day Trade Plan for 01/10/25
📈 21560
📉 20930
1/2 way mark 📈 21406 & 📉 21090
Like and share for more daily NQ levels 🤓
*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research, demonstrating over 90% accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Prepare before National Foundation Day on Nasdaq 25.01.09Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
First, I’d like to apologize for not posting a briefing yesterday, January 8, due to personal reasons. Let’s dive into today’s analysis of the NASDAQ.
Tuesday’s Briefing Results
Buy Entry: No buy entries were triggered, so there’s no commentary for this perspective.
Sell Entry: The trigger was a breakdown below the ascending trendline and the lower boundary of the supply zone at 21640.
Outcome: After the breakdown, the NASDAQ dropped by 350 points.
Profit: Approximately $7,000 per contract.
Daily Chart Analysis
The NASDAQ is currently consolidating between the 20 EMA and the 60 EMA, which suggests indecision:
The price has not closed below the 60 EMA, indicating that support is still holding and cautioning against premature selling.
The price has not entered the Ichimoku Cloud, which means a full bearish transition has not occurred yet.
This range-bound movement suggests that the market is awaiting a major catalyst, such as an economic indicator or political news, to determine the next directional move. A more strategic approach is required in this scenario.
Key Supply Zone Dynamics
The current range is highlighted in the orange box, where price movements have shown inconsistent behavior:
Resistance and support levels within this range do not align consistently.
The best approach in this zone is to wait for a clear breakout in either direction before entering a trade.
This area is prone to stop-hunting, increasing the risk of being prematurely stopped out in both directions.
Today’s Trading Strategy
Buy Scenario:
Entry Trigger: A breakout above the green box at 21812.
Reasoning:
The red box marks the upper boundary of the resistance zone, but breaking above it alone does not provide a strong buy signal.
A move above 21812 would signify a breakout above key resistance levels, including the descending trendline and prior candle resistance, providing sufficient justification for a buy entry.
Sell Scenario:
Entry Trigger: A breakdown below the orange box support.
Reasoning:
Breaking the short-term ascending trendline would open the door for a test of Wednesday’s low.
If the low is breached, the price could decline further to the 21006 level.
The 21006 support zone corresponds to the January 2, 2025 low of 20983, a critical level.
A breakdown here would signify entry into the daily Ichimoku Cloud, opening substantial downside targets.
Conclusion
Today is a market holiday in the U.S. (National Foundation Day), so trading activity will be paused.
In such conditions, I recommend avoiding impulsive or speculative trades and instead observing the market’s behavior to prepare for the next session.
Stay disciplined and trade wisely. 🚀
This briefing will remain valid until Friday due to the market holiday.
The next NASDAQ briefing will be shared over the weekend in preparation for Monday’s trading.
NASDAQ: The buy zone is under the 1D MA50.Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 47.510, MACD = 54.540, ADX = 27.946) as it got rejected yesterday back to its 1D MA50. This trendline is holding since September 12th and during this 4 month period is sustained a very steady uptrend. This is so far the bullish sequence with the slowest pace inside the 2 year Channel Up. This lack of strength along with the fact that the 1D RSI formed a pattern that during these 2 years was followed by a dip under the 1D MA50, suggests that it might be best waiting for the price to hit the 1D MA100 before placing a long term buy again. Once this condition is met, we will go long and aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 24,350), which was always hit when a Channel Top was priced.
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$NQ MMBMAs mentioned at the beginning of the week, our DOL targets are being hit one by one. Now, we believe the price will begin the day’s opening with a bearish correction, aiming to capture internal liquidity in the discounted region, before resuming the bullish movement in search of the next targets.
Tuesday: Make Your Day a Payday with NASDAQ 25.01.07Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
Monday Trading Results
Buy Signals: The green boxes marked the buy entry zones for Monday’s session.
Sell Signals: No sell entries were triggered, so there is no commentary for sell trades.
Outcome: Both the first and second buy entries were activated, and all targets were achieved.
Profit: The price moved a total of 321 points, resulting in approximately $6,400 in profit per contract.
How Should We Approach Today’s Market?
Looking at the daily chart, the price appears to have entered the supply zone within the green box range, which spans 21619 to 21896.
While Monday’s bullish candle demonstrated strength, the upper wick formed during the U.S. session's close indicates that bullish momentum was met with selling pressure. This leaves a less-than-ideal setup for the bulls.
The trend is likely to continue in the direction of the breakout from this supply zone.
Today’s Trading Strategy
Buy Perspective:
Entry Trigger: A breakout above both the resistance trendline and Monday’s high at 21897 is recommended for a conservative buy entry.
Target Levels:
First resistance: The yellow box, which contains the purple resistance trendline.
Beyond this, the maximum target lies at 22111.
Scenario Analysis for Bulls:
Should the price rally, the green box zones (previous lows) will form a double bottom structure, providing a strong foundation for continued upside.
A breakout above 22111 would confirm a larger double bottom pattern, potentially paving the way for a rally toward previous highs or even new all-time highs.
Sell Perspective:
Entry Trigger: A break below the ascending trendline and Monday’s corrective low at 21619 serves as the sell signal.
Target Levels:
Maximum target: 21520
Beyond this, further downside is possible; however, key support zones are unclear due to differing stair-step patterns during recent rallies and corrections.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is at a critical juncture, balancing between bullish potential and bearish risks:
For Buyers: Watch for a breakout above 21897 for potential upside to 22111 and beyond.
For Sellers: Monitor a breakdown below 21619, with 21520 as the initial target.
Be prepared for both scenarios, as the market continues to provide dynamic opportunities. Let’s stay sharp and trade wisely. 🚀
NASDAQ Nas100 Outlook I already anticipated the bullish movement to my zone since last week. Now I'm going to sell from 21610.60 down to last week low 20813.38 join me.
Watch out for more of my insights. And comments if you have different insights.
Ciao!
NASDAQ rebounding strongly on its 1D MA50. 1 month rally ahead.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a 4-month Channel Up and hit last Tuesday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) exactly on the Channel's bottom. Even though it marginally broke it, the 1D candle closed exactly on the 1D MA50, causing a strong bullish Friday reaction.
As today opened equally green, we technically view this sequence as the start of the new Bullish Leg of the pattern, which may be confirmed today if the 1D RSI breaks above its MA (yellow trend-line), as both previous Bullish Legs did.
Our Target is 22600, which represents a +9.00% rise, the minimum a Bullish Leg had within this Channel Up.
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$NQ MMBM "As planned, targets 1 and 2 were nearly reached, reinforcing the accuracy of the analysis based on MMBM. It is important to note that, at the open, we might see a correction seeking liquidity in a discounted region, which could create an opportunity to reach the next targets."
The Market Matrix - Gold, Crude, Nasdaq & DXY for January 5 2025This weeks edition of The Market Matrix.
Actionable insights for the Gold, Crude Oil, Nasdaq & DXY Markets.
NQ may have found a little Support to continue its climb.After a healthy, needed pull back, the NASDAQ may have found the support it needed to finish its climb with the inauguration soon to come at the end of the month. Price has not been comfortable below the middle Keltner channel band during this push-up over the last few weeks. The MACD and and RSI look prime for a turnover, and Fridays push-up off of Thursdays Liquidity sweep, sets us up nicely for a move up. At the very least, there's a good chance we test some of these levels for the upcoming week.
New Monday For Nasadaq Trading Strategy 25.01.04Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today, we’ll be analyzing the NASDAQ, focusing on recent results and strategies for Monday's market.
Friday’s Briefing Results
Buy Signal:
Trigger: Breakout above the resistance trendline and the 21360.
Outcome: The NASDAQ experienced significant upside, though it did not reach the maximum target of 21575.
Profit: The price movement offered approximately $5,000 per contract for a range of 250 points.
Sell Signal:
Trigger: A break below 21120 was required for sell entry.
Outcome: The level was not breached, so no sell trades were triggered.
Monday’s Market Strategy
Let’s first analyze the daily chart:
Following Thursday’s decline, the price tested the Ichimoku Cloud's support.
Although the 20 EMA wasn’t touched, the daily candle closed as a bullish candle.
Notably, the Lagging Span found support at the candles, which can be seen in the green box.
Key Resistance: If the price breaks above the 20 EMA, the next major resistance is 21812, supported by the blue box candlesticks as evidence.
Buy Entry Points
Recommended Buy Zones:
First Entry: Above 21575
Reasoning: This level represents the resistance encountered during the December 30 session and Friday’s high.
Caution: A breakout above the Daily 20 EMA is essential; otherwise, resistance is likely.
Targets:
TP1: 21645
TP2: 21670
TP3: 21740
Second Entry: Above 21746 + Resistance Trendline Breakout
Reasoning: Breaking the black box supply zone opens the door for a one-way rally, as there are no significant overhead resistances.
This scenario also implies a clear breakout above the daily 20 EMA, signaling strong bullish momentum barring any unexpected news.
Targets:
TP1: 21812
TP2: 21895
TP3: 21935
Sell Entry Points
Recommended Sell Zone:
Trigger: Break below the ascending trendline + 21345
Reasoning:
Historical support at 21345 has been confirmed multiple times (black box zone).
A break below this level, coupled with a trendline breakdown, would suggest a shift to a corrective trend.
Additionally, this level acted as a pullback zone during Friday’s rally, suggesting significant supply if revisited.
Targets:
TP1: 21265
TP2: 21206
TP3: 21120
Extended Scenario:
If 21120 (marked in the blue box) is breached, additional downside is likely.
While new entries are not recommended, breaking this level increases the probability of testing Thursday’s low.
Conclusion
The market showed downward momentum from Monday to Thursday last week, followed by a recovery on Friday.
As a futures trader, I always consider both bullish and bearish scenarios, emphasizing the importance of flexibility and preparation. This approach ensures we can adapt to any market conditions effectively.
Take some time to rest over the weekend, and let’s aim for another successful trading week ahead. 🚀
NASDAQ Double Bottom starting the new bullish waveNasdaq / US100 is trading inside a 5 month Channel Up.
The price made a Double Bottom on January 2nd and rebounded today back to hit the 4hour MA50.
If it crosses above the Falling Resistance, we will have a technical confirmation of the new bullish wave, similar to September 12th 2024.
That bullish wave hit the 1.236 Fibonacci extension.
Buy and target 22400 (Fib 1.236).
Previous chart:
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SELL NASDAQAs you can see on the chart, we have our MS stll going bearish and the market gave us a confirmation of the reversal after the correction.
You can sell and take the same level I set on the chart.
Follow for more!
NASDAQ Analysis: Key Levels and Trading Opportunities 25.01.03Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today, we’ll dive into a detailed analysis of the NASDAQ, starting with a review of the recent trading signals and results.
Briefing Results
1. Sell Signal: Red Box Entry
Entry Trigger: During the Asian session, prior to the Hang Seng market opening, the NASDAQ broke below Tuesday’s low of 21177.
Result: Price quickly reached the target of 21128, delivering a clean, decisive trade.
Profit: $1,000 per contract for a 48-point range.
2. Buy Signal: Green Box Entry
Entry Trigger: During the transition between the Asian close and the European open, the price rebounded strongly, presenting a buy opportunity.
Result: The maximum profit for this trade was 133 points, or approximately $2,660 per contract.
3. Sell Signal: Light Blue Box Entry
Entry Trigger: During the U.S. session, the NASDAQ broke below the previous low of 21006. Although there was a notable rebound afterward, the price met its target.
Observation: The candlesticks showed significant lower wicks, indicating strong attempts to hold support.
Profit: $2,600 per contract for a 130-point range.
Total Briefing Results:
The maximum combined profit from these trades was $6,260 per contract, demonstrating the effectiveness of the strategy.
Daily Chart Analysis
The price tested but failed to sustain inside the Ichimoku Cloud, confirming a rebound at the lower boundary.
The Lagging Span (Chikou Span) has now intersected with the candles, signaling a pivotal moment.
Key Watch Point: Whether the Lagging Span finds support at the candles or falls below them will be critical for determining the next directional move.
Trend and Market Structure
The NASDAQ remains firmly within a descending channel.
A repeated pattern has emerged: modest gains during the Asian and European sessions, followed by a bearish reversal during the U.S. session.
Breakout Requirement: A breakout above the blue box at 21575 is essential for confirming a shift out of the current downtrend. Until this occurs, the channel’s movement will likely persist as the prevailing trend.
Buy Opportunities
Recommended Entry:
A breakout above the black box zone and the horizontal resistance at 21360 is required for a valid buy signal.
Why This Zone Matters:
On the 4-hour chart, this level aligns with the 20 EMA, which has acted as a resistance during U.S. session pullbacks.
Breaking above this level would signal renewed bullish momentum.
TP: 21421 / 21456 / 21492 / 21523 / 21575
A move beyond 21575 would strongly indicate a potential trend reversal, providing room for further upside.
Sell Opportunities
Recommended Entry:
A conservative sell entry would occur if the price breaks below 21120, a key support zone.
Reasoning:
The lack of clear support below this level increases the risk of rapid, one-way moves.
Observing how the price reacts to this zone will be critical for managing risk.
Targets:
Initial target: 20984 (yesterday’s low).
Below 20984: If this level fails, the downside potential becomes unpredictable and will depend on market momentum.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is currently at a critical juncture, with clear opportunities for both bulls and bears:
For Buyers: Focus on breakouts above 21360 and 21575, as these levels are pivotal for a potential trend reversal.
For Sellers: Watch for breakdowns below 21120, with the potential for significant downside if 20984 is breached.
While the market remains volatile, patience and precision in executing trades at key levels will be essential for success. Let’s stay disciplined and take advantage of the opportunities the market provides. 🚀
NASDAQ 2025: The First Direction? 25.01.01Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ.
Tuesday Briefing Results
Let’s start with the results of Tuesday’s briefing.
Both buy and sell signals played out as expected.
Buy Signal:
The breakout above the resistance trendline and 21476 level was the trigger for a buy entry.
The target was the yellow box supply zone, and the price moved as predicted.
The breakout occurred after the NASDAQ had already corrected significantly, making it a reasonable entry.
Maximum profit for this position was 120 points, equating to approximately $2,400 per contract.
Sell Signal:
For short positions, I recommended waiting for a breakdown of Monday’s low at 21253 in addition to the trendline break.
The price broke 21253 and exceeded the target of 21204, providing a solid short trade.
From the entry point, the NASDAQ dropped 70 points, yielding a profit of approximately $1,400 per contract.
Total Potential Profit:
Combined, the maximum profit for both trades was approximately $3,800 per contract on Tuesday.
Daily Chart Analysis
To prepare for Thursday, let’s examine the daily chart.
As mentioned on Tuesday, the price touched the 60 EMA and briefly broke below it but ultimately closed at the EMA level.
The remaining support is the December 20 low at 21006, which is the key level to watch.
A breakdown below 21006 would confirm entry into the yellow box supply zone or potentially the red box demand zone.
Key Observations:
The red box zone aligns with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud, which makes it a significant support level unlikely to break easily.
However, the yellow box zone has no clear support levels, as it previously acted as a supply zone that pushed the price upward.
If the price enters the yellow box, expect either volatile swings or a one-directional move, depending on market sentiment.
Descending Broadening Pattern
The NASDAQ is forming a descending broadening pattern after the sharp drop on December 27, 2024.
Key Insights:
Support levels appear weak, and the trend has shifted bearish since December 27.
A complete trend reversal requires a breakout above 21734, the starting point of the pattern.
Trading Strategy:
For short positions: Focus on larger moves, as the downtrend dominates.
For long positions: Keep trades short-term and within the range until a clear breakout invalidates the pattern.
Buy Perspective
Buy Entry Levels:
First Entry: Breakout above the red box resistance trendline and 21360.
If this level breaks, the price may briefly rise to the top of the yellow box at 21442.
However, this is not a full trend reversal, so a conservative approach is recommended.
Second Entry: Breakout above the blue resistance trendline.
If this occurs, the yellow box top will likely already be broken, opening up a potential move to 21571.
Even then, the trend reversal would still be incomplete, so caution is advised.
Third Entry: Breakout above 21571.
This level opens the path to the next significant resistance at 21746, providing a stronger buy signal with momentum.
Sell Perspective
Sell Entry Levels:
First Entry: Breakdown below Tuesday’s low at 21177.
Target: 21128, which corresponds to a past demand zone with historical support from prior wicks.
Second Entry: Breakdown below 21128.
Target: 21006, the December 20 low, which is a critical support level.
Extended Target:
If 21006 breaks, the daily chart opens up for a potential move into the 20000 range, as previously analyzed.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ is currently in a volatile and pivotal zone:
For buyers: Focus on breakouts above key levels (21360, 21571) with conservative targets until a full trend reversal occurs.
For sellers: Use breakdowns of key supports (21177, 21128, 21006) for entries, with room for larger moves in case of further downside.
Patience and precision will be key to navigating this market. Let’s trade smart and make the most of these opportunities. 🚀
Nasdaq Analysis: Wrapping Up 2024 with Precision 24.12.31Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today's analysis focuses on the Nasdaq.
Results from Monday's Briefing
Let’s start by reviewing the results of Monday's briefing.
Buy Scenario: Breakout above the resistance trendline.
Sell Scenario: Breakdown below the upward trendline.
The buy scenario did not activate as the entry level was not reached.
In the sell scenario, the price broke below the upward trendline and dropped to approximately 343 points lower.
For a single contract, this move offered a profit of about $6,800, providing a solid opportunity for gains.
Today's Analysis
Daily Chart Overview
If a rebound occurs, the price might bounce up to the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.
However, instead of focusing on the rebound potential, it’s more important to analyze how much further the downside could extend.
As of now:
The 60-day moving average on the daily chart aligns near yesterday’s support zone at 21,253.
This moving average could serve as short-term support.
If this support fails:
The price could drop to the recent low of 21,006, recorded on December 20, 2024.
The red box marks a key level. If this zone breaks, the price could enter the cloud zone, fully entering the green box supply zone on the left. This could further open the possibility of a decline to the lower boundary of the green box.
Buy Scenario
Today's buy scenario presents two potential entry points:
Entry 1: Breakout above the high supply zone from the Asian session + Breakout above 21,476.75.
Target: Maximum 21,571.
Entry 2: Breakout above 21,571 + Breakout above the yellow resistance trendline, located in the green box.
Target 1: 21,666.
Target 2: 21,739.
Target 3: Maximum to the orange box.
Targets 1 and 2 are based on the premise that the price has entered the white supply zone on the left.
Sell Scenario
For the sell scenario, the entry will not rely on the trendline break due to its shallow slope. Even if the trendline breaks, a retest bounce from yesterday's low of 21,253 is likely.
Thus, the sell entry point will be upon a breakdown below the green box, which marks yesterday’s low of 21,253.
Target 1: 21,204 (red box).
The first target is relatively small because the past data shows a bounce from the orange box supply zone on the left.
Target 2: 21,006, the low recorded on December 20, 2024.
Conclusion
Let’s finish 2024 strong! Since January 1 is a holiday, I’ll return with the next briefing on January 2.
Happy New Year in advance, and see you soon!
NASDAQ headed into a volatile January but uptrend remains intactNasdaq (NDX) is yet again testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) following the direct hit of December 20. Despite the pull-back, it is technically respecting the 2-year Channel Up that it's been trading in since the December 26 2022 market bottom. Its most recent Higher Low was on the August 05 2024 1W candle, which initiated the Bullish Leg we're currently in.
Until we get a 1W candle closing below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), the pattern remains intact and the strategy is to continue buying into the current Bullish Leg. The previous two Bullish Legs had one main pull-back/ correction sequence each and apart from that, the majority of the Leg was technically a straight uptrend. Given that the current Bullish Leg has been trading above its 1D MA50 since September 12, it is not unlikely to see a correction below it.
Technically, it could be similar to the previous Bullish Leg (March 04 - April 15 2024), as we are trading within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range. This means that one more rise above the 0.382 Fib is to be expected in the first week of January but it is likely to then see a correction for the rest of the month below the 1D MA50 into the first 2 weeks of February.
If after that, the 0.5 Fib and 1D MA200 levels hold, we expect the Bullish Leg to resume the uptrend and target 25300. That would be a rise of around +48%, which is the % rise of both previous Bullish Legs.
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NASDAQ Analysis: Preparing for Monday’s Trading 2024.12.28Hello, this is Greedy All-Day.
Today’s analysis focuses on the NASDAQ in preparation for Monday’s trading.
Friday's Trading Strategy Recap
Let’s first review the results of Friday’s trading strategy.
For buy positions, the breakout of the resistance trendline did not occur during the session, so the suggested entry above the red box did not materialize. As a result, no buy positions were taken.
For sell positions, the breakdown of the ascending trendline occurred after the European market opened. However, entry was only recommended upon breaking the green box to the downside, which occurred during the U.S. session.
As you can see, this resulted in a one-way downward trend, surpassing the target of 21558 and offering a high-probability trade for easy profits.
Maximum Profit:
1253 ticks per contract.
$6,260 per contract.
Weekly Chart Analysis
The weekly candle analysis shows the following:
After the doji bearish candle from December 16, 2024, the direction of the following week was crucial.
This week’s candle closed as a bullish candle with a long upper wick. While it filled last week’s body with an upward move, it eventually declined and closed with a long wick and a small body.
The NASDAQ is still holding support at the 20 EMA on the weekly chart, making next week’s direction critically important.
Daily Chart Analysis
On the daily chart, the NASDAQ closed below the 20 EMA.
During the session, there was steep selling pressure followed by a slight rebound near the close.
However, closing below the daily 20 EMA makes it difficult to view the session positively.
The price is likely to oscillate between the 20 EMA and 60 EMA, as highlighted in the red box, and there’s a high probability of testing the 21300 level next week.
15-Minute Chart: Buy Setup
For short-term buy opportunities, let’s look at the 15-minute chart.
The red box shows a long bullish candle closing at 21746.5. However, the price failed to surpass this level by the close of the U.S. session.
If no significant news occurs over the weekend, the price may break above this level and resolve the bearish candle within the green box, leading to a potential rebound.
If the rebound is strong, the light blue box breakout will serve as the first buy entry point, targeting 21935.
The second buy entry would occur upon breaking the upper resistance at 21989, with the next target being the resistance trendline.
15-Minute Chart: Sell Setup
For short-term sell opportunities:
The short-term ascending trendline is highlighted in red. A breakdown could trigger a short-term correction, with the red box lower boundary serving as the maximum target at 21630–21613.
For conservative entries, wait for a break below the blue box at 21476.75.
If the green box breaks to the downside, it may trigger additional selling opportunities. However, given Friday’s rebound at 21476.75, there’s a possibility of the price finding support and bouncing back.
The maximum downside target for a sell-off is the orange box lower boundary at 21008.
Conclusion
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