SELL ON NASDAQAs you can notice on the chart, the price has reached a high LQ level in which you can sell in a safe position.
Set you EN, TP and SL ans on the chart!
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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
2024-09-24 Nasdaq / Nas100Hello, this is ViViD. Here is today’s Nasdaq analysis.
This is the daily Nasdaq chart. As I mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for further upward movement to happen, the price needs to break above the resistance level of the supply zone. This would allow for potential entry from a buying perspective. However, the price movement has been sideways due to the supply zone's resistance, which hasn't yet determined a clear direction.
As we can see in the daily chart, the current pattern shows a pennant pattern, which could indicate a consolidation to the right before a potential continuation of the upward trend. On the contrary, it could also signify a peak, leading to a decline after breaking below the support level.
In the Asian session, we observed a break of the upward trend line. You can see the breakdown in the blue box. However, the rebound zone after the break is noteworthy. The white trend line indicates that the price is making slightly higher lows, establishing a form of support.
Thus, Nasdaq seems to be defending this zone. The key to focus on is whether the white short-term support line holds. The main takeaway is that while the trend is making higher lows and defending the price, the most critical point for a selling perspective is the break below the white support line at the lowest level of 20016.25.
Now, for a buying perspective: The optimal entry point seems to be when the price breaks above the blue box zone, which corresponds to breaking both the price level and the resistance trend line. The reason 20127 is significant is that the white box shows two instances of resistance at this level, making a breakout here critical.
Once the price breaks through, the targets would be at 20164, 20204, and 20264, with additional resistances along the way. However, this breakout could signal the pennant pattern's upward continuation, stabilizing the long-term trend for further upward momentum.
Today, we have the CB Consumer Confidence data, so be cautious of any sharp market changes after the announcement. I hope you have a profitable day!
- ViViD -
NASDAQ gave the best longterm bullish signal. Is 25300 possible?Nasdaq (NDX) confirmed the bounce on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as argued on our previous analysis (September 09) and the rebound made the ultimate bullish break-out last week, as it crossed above the Lower Highs trend-line of the July 11 All Time High (ATH), giving us the most consistent long-term buy signal on a 2-year basis.
As you can see on this chart that goes as back as October 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis Bear Cycle, the two times that Nasdaq broke above such Lower Highs trend-line, while being above the 1D MA200, it gave the best buy signal possible, with both rallies peaking after a +49% and +48% rise respectively.
The Sine Waves have also confirmed early this month that the index bottomed and now we have the ultimate bullish break-out confirmation. The longer the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the better, but even if it breaks (April 2024), we still expect that we are on a similar Bullish Leg that should top in roughly the same way (+47% i.e. one percent less than the previous).
This gives us a long-term Target of 25300 for March - April 2025. We have plotted the Bullish Legs of 2023 and 2024 and as you can see, even though they diverge at times, they always converge again, forming a rough Channel Up, which can be a representation of our estimate course.
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NASDAQ: Clear path to 21,150. Checked all bullish signals.Nasdaq is on very healthy bullish 1D technicals (RSI = 60.054, MACD = 172.430, ADX = 25.087) as not only it crossed and closed over the LH trendline of the previous Top but kept the 4H MA50 as support and formed a 4H Golden Cross. The driving pattern seems to be yet again a Channel Up and this is its second bullish wave structure. Keeping the 4H MA50 intact should technically push the price to a HH. The previous wave topped a +15.55%, which is the basis for our target (TP = 21,150).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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SP500 Futures Chart Now in Final Stages of 100 year RallyCycles are a normal part of life. The stock market is no different. In my long term analysis we appear to be headed up to an area that can complete a rally that started almost 100 years ago.
For context, this long-term consolidation will be similar to Japan's Nikkei index in which made no new high's for 34 years.
Nasdaq-100 Index. The Psychological Aspects of Round NumbersIn the complex dance of commerce and finance, price tags play a key role in influencing consumer decisions.
While it’s a fairly common psychological assumption that every penny and cent counts when it comes to getting the best deal, human psychology often deviates from this linear logic. In this educational post, we explore the irresistible appeal of round numbers, and how they often trump other considerations when making transaction decisions.
The Irresistible Attraction to Round Numbers
We do often believe that every penny counts in our transactions. However, research shows a striking deviation from this assumption. In scenarios where people choose a price, such as tipping at a restaurant or donating to beloved author or website, they disproportionately choose round numbers — like $ 5, $ 10 or $ 20 — far more than would be predicted by chance alone.
One could argue that this is due to the rejection of change, a reluctance to waste time on small change, and the unwillingness to bother with complex mathematics. However, even in cases where the exact bill is not an issue (e.g., cashless card payments), the preference remains.
For example, diners faced with a non-round bill (for example $ 34.67) are more likely to give non-round tips ($ 15.33), but only so that the total is a neat round number ($ 50).
Why do we prefer round prices? And what is the psychology behind it?
1) Cognitive simplicity: The human mind is programmed to simplify and seek simplicity. Numbers like 10, 50, or 100 inherently feel “cleaner” and less chaotic than 17, 62, or 84. This desire for neatness gives us a sense of accomplishment.
2) Perception of quality: The marketing world has long capitalized on this preference for round numbers. Brands strategically associate round prices with premium quality. On the other hand, odd prices like “29.99” or “34.99,” while ubiquitous, subconsciously signal here's a discount or a bargain.
3) This preference is not limited to prices. People exhibit this tendency to round in other aspects of life as well. Our repeated exposure to round numbers is common in a variety of contexts, both in everyday life and during financial transactions, which contributes to an unconscious bias toward them. This cognitive ease with round numbers further perpetuates the preference.
The stock market’s behavior and its fluctuations around these significant, round numbers is not a coincidence in general; there is a psychological explanation.
Market Psychology of Round Numbers
When the market reaches round numbers such as 500 or 1,000, 2,500 or 5,000, 10,000 or 20,000, it attracts the attention of both active traders and casual investors who may not even be actively following the market.
As in everyday life, people often use round numbers as thresholds for making investment decisions. For example, some may decide to enter the market if a major index such as the Nasdaq-100 has exceeded 10,000, or they may decide to sell some of their stocks if the Nasdaq-100 has reached 20,000.
These round numbers act as magnets for sellers as they mark important milestones given the relatively high rarity of a round number. If the market has the potential to move higher, it first needs to absorb the selling pressure around the round numbers and establish equilibrium before continuing its move higher.
If we analyze the market behavior over the last decades, we will see clear patterns at round numbers. Let us take a closer look at a few examples.
1) Indian Stock Index, Sensex BSE:SENSEX
Sensex, one of the major market indices in India, has its share of round number syndrome. For example, when Sensex reached 10,000 points in Q1 2006, it experienced significant market activity, with the index fluctuating by as much as 30 percent in Q2.
The same phenomenon occurred at multiples of 10,000.
Thus, at 20,000 points, which the Indian market reached at the end of 2007, the index collapsed by more than 60 percent over the next 4 quarters of 2008.
Later the 20,000 mark has been reached again in the second half of 2010, and the index again suffered a decline of more than 20 percent during 2011.
Later Indian stock market index reached the 30,000 mark in the first quarter of 2015, and its led to a price decline of more than 20 percent in the next 4 quarters, while 40,000 mark in the fourth quarter of 2019 - led to the market decline by 30 percent on the wave of COVID-19 sales.
2) Gold market OANDA:XAUUSD
As in the previous example, round numbers often become key points of congestion for Gold market, when the market tries to break even higher, but the forces of buyers and sellers may be unequal.
For example, spot Gold reached the $ 1,000 mark for the first time in the Q1 2008, which, following the logic discussed above, led to sales and 30 percent decrease.
Gold spot buyers have tried a lot to reach $ 2,000 mark in 2011, but it brought the market down by 45 percent over the next 5 years. There were also a lot of unsuccessful attempts to jump above $ 2,000 in 2020-2022.
Finally Gold spot surged above $ 2,000 only in Q4 2023, its led to further price increase, up to 2500 US dollars per ounce.
3) US stock index, Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX
The Nasdaq-100 index approached the 10,000 point mark for the first time in Q1 2020, which could have contributed to the sell-off. In fact, this is what happened, as the market then plunged by more than 30 percent in March 2020, and only thanks to monetary support measures and the reduction of US interest rates to almost zero, the index was able to break the 10,000 barrier by the end of Q2 2020.
Reaching the 20,000 mark by the market index in Q2 2024, as we see, again leads to increased turbulence in US tech stocks and talk of imminent monetary easing by the Fed.
Final Thoughts
1) It is important to note that round number syndrome and increased seismic activity near rounds number is a short-term phenomenon. Once the selling pressure is absorbed, the market resumes its movement based on other factors and develops independently of these already passed milestones.
2) Understanding the market behavior at round numbers can provide valuable information to investors. These round numbers act as psychological triggers for investors, driving their decision-making processes.
3) Understanding this phenomenon allows investors to make more informed choices and understand the short-term fluctuations that occur during these stages.
Elliott Wave View on Nasdaq (NQ) Calling the Next Bullish Leg upShort term Elliott Wave view on Nasdaq (NQ) shows that rally from 8.5.2024 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Up from 8.5.2024 low, wave (1) ended at 20025.25. Pullback in wave (2) ended at 18338.45 with internal subdivision as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1), wave W ended at 19140.25 and wave X ended at 19693.50. Wave Y lower unfolded as another double three in lesser degree. Down from wave X, wave ((w)) ended at 18825.75 and wave ((x)) ended at 19150.50. Wave ((y)) lower ended at 18338.45 which completed wave Y of (2) in higher degree.
The Index has turned higher in wave (3) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at 18927.5 and pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 18547. Wave ((iii)) higher ended at 19813.50 and pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 19529. Near term, expect Index to extend higher to end wave ((v)) and this should complete wave 1 in higher degree. Afterwards, it should pullback in wave 2 to correct cycle from 9.7.2024 low in 3, 7, 11 swing before it resumes higher.
NQ-SP500-NKD-BTC, The wave has startedCME_MINI:NQ1! BINANCE:BTCUSD
CME_MINI:ES1! CME:NKD1!
The wave has started. It's slow, and choppy as they move through the time frames, so if you play the longer time frames, be patient. If you play the shorter time frames, ensure you take profit along the way so you're not chopped up
Video covers – NQ – SP500 – NKD – BTC
ES (S&P) – 100 pt price blocks (Bold Yellow Lines)
NQ (Nasdaq) – 500 pt price blocks
NKD (Japanese Market) – 1000 pt price blocks
BTC (Bitcoin) – 5000 pt price blocks
Legend
Bold Yellow Lines: Top and Bottom of Price Blocks
Dotted Blue Lines: 50% of any Price Block
White Solid Line: 20 EMA
Yellow Solid Line (not price block): 50 EMA
Blue Solid Line: 200 EMA
Method: Follow the MACD and the 200 EMA. Generally speaking, if the MACD is negative or heading negative, the price should be below the 200 EMA or heading below it, and visa versa, as it goes up to go positive, so should the price, and you should be targeting a price (at a significant level – price block) above the 200 EMA.
Current Contract - Forward Contract (NQ1!-NQ2!)This crazy jump tells me that there is danger and nearby, more volatility is coming. You don't get this kind of range when things are good. Short-squeeze blow-off top at best.
NASDAQ The index is well supported to hit 25k by mid 2025.Last week (September 09, see chart below), we gave a strong buy signal on Nasdaq (NDX) right as the price was testing the 1D MA200, a strong Support on its 2-year Channel Up:
The index duly delivered and we've completed 5 straight green days already. Not only that but the 1D candle closing above the 1D MA50, practically confirmed the bullish extension into this week.
The current week however isn't just a typical one, as we anticipate the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday and even though the expectations are fixed on at least a 0.25% cut, the volatility is expected to be high.
As a result, to filter out this short-term noise, we will resort today to the wider 1W time-frame, which helps keeping a more accurate long-term perspective. In fact it was the same chart we published 6 months ago (March 18, see chart below), which very accurately laid out the Support that you needed to calmly buy on the long-term, which as you can see, it has been a recurring signal since 2010:
Every time the price broke above a Resistance, it was the ultimate buy entry if re-tested later as a Support. That happened in mid April and that's what happened last week as well.
In fact, the index made a strong rejection on the 1.5 Channel Fibonacci level and then tested and held the 1W MA50, confirming the emergence of a Channel Up (orange) similar to June 2020 - November 2021. The 1W RSI similarities between the two fractals are also further evidence of this.
As a result, we expect Nasdaq to reach as high as 25000 by mid 2025 (a little lower than our previous 6-month estimate but still good enough to be an excellent buy opportunity even now).
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NQ BULLISHNESS AHEAD . NEW ALL TIME HIGH hello this is my forcast for the upcoming week for nasdaq i wanna see price take out PWHs and onto that imbalance. buy side delivery
NQ - SP500 - NKD - BTC Coming Week(s) - BearKey Points:
Video covers – CME_MINI:NQ1! - CME_MINI:ES1! - CME:NKD1! - BINANCE:BTCUSD
ES (S&P) – 100 pt price blocks (Bold Yellow Lines)
NQ (Nasdaq) – 500 pt price blocks
NKD (Japanese Market) – 1000 pt price blocks
BTC (Bitcoin) – 5000 pt price blocks
Legend
Bold Yellow Lines: Top and Bottom of Price Blocks
Dotted Blue Lines: 50% of any Price Block
White Solid Line: 20 EMA
Yellow Solid Line (not price block): 50 EMA
Blue Solid Line: 200 EMA
Method: Follow the MACD and the 200 EMA. Generally speaking, if the MACD is negative or heading negative, the price should be below the 200 EMA or heading below it, and visa versa, as it goes up to go positive, so should the price, and you should be targeting a price (at a significant level – price block) above the 200 EMA.
MMBM Using Fractal ConsolidationsFractal consolidations MMBM we can see how price is gravitating towards multiple HRLR (red boxes) and will probably find some sort of resistance around these levels
Nq1! Nasdaq Long term ForecastWhile many switch to a bullish bias for CME_MINI:NQ1! because of expectations of a interest rate cut on 18th of September, I remain bearish because markets price in before these events and the rate cut was expected for a long time.
We see on the daily chart a double bottom, which is market makers' favorite liquidity to take out.
Again on the daily chart, we see that price took out the buy-side liquidity and now is in the Daily Optimal Trade Entry of the last down move.
I expect to see the double bottom to be taken out in the upcoming weeks.
Please note that this can take a lot of time and we can still see a full recovery to All Time Highs before we take out the double bottom.
You can boost the idea for free if you have a paid plan and if the idea helped you.
Thanks for reading I wish you all good and safe trades.
NQ Chart Idea - Swing Long Trade SetupNQ made triple bottom in Oct, Nov and then in Dec 2022. Since Dec 2022, NQ made a diagonal support line which was briefly broken on Aug 5th dump but then closed the week above this support line. In that dump, it made a double bottom at 17350 which is super bullish. 17530 was also a 0.382 fib level which was tested and respected as it didn’t close any candle below that level. I am personally with this PA as well as market fundamentals. Below are just two target prices that I am showing but I will want to ride this trade until 20350 after updating my SL in green.
Swing Long Setup
Entry: 19000
TP1: 19600 (0.618 fib retracement level)
TP2: 19700 (Major resistance)
SL: 4Hr candle closing below 19650
RR: 2:1
NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE! DYOR
OHLC Statistical Mapping Long modelThere is a diffrent type of model, I used -Distribution as my entry and Stop-loss below protected low abd I targeted +Distribtuion
Simple as that
NQ Bounce, But Momentum Remains BearishCME_MINI:NQ1!
Welcome back everyone. Video includes a quick review our the trading method, predominately used on higher time frames, but can be used on shorter time frames.
NQ still moving in a bearish momentum and expect more downside later this week. Short the pops, in my opinion, and look for a greater move later this week possibly on Thursday when PPI and Jobless claims are all reported. Friday should continue momentum of Thursday's trend (up or down).
Good luck!
SELL ON NASDAQYou can sell on NASDAQ after that we have a BB with the SL and TP as shown on the chart.
Navigating the Nasdaq's Turbulence: A Peek into the Week AheadAs we head into the trading week, let’s zero in on some critical levels on the CME_MINI:NQ1! Nasdaq that are making the rounds in savvy financial circles. With a bit of a bearish vibe from the get-go, understanding these might just set the stage for some strategic plays.
Top Tier: 19,300 to 19,400
Keep your eyes peeled on this upper bracket. It's where the ceiling might just come crashing down with selling pressure. A lot hinges on how prices react here—will they retreat or break through unexpectedly?
Middle Ground: Around 19,200
Here lies the Fair Value Gap, a zone that often acts as a decision-making hub for the bulls and bears alike. If prices struggle to push past this, it might just reinforce the gloomy outlook for the week.
Entry Alert: Near 19,100
Thinking of going short? This could be your spot. The Optimal Trade Entry point around 19,100 is where the action could heat up, signaling a strong entry if bearish momentum continues.
Watch Your Step: Around 18,730
This level has history. It's served as a balance point before and could either prop up prices for a rebound or give way under bearish pressure, leading to further declines.
Base Camp: 18,300 to 18,550
Down here, if the floor gives way, expect the bears to rush in even stronger. It's a critical zone to gauge just how far the current sentiment could drag the market down.
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Abbreviations
D FVG - Daily Fair Value Gap
D OTE - Daily Optimal Trade Entry
Eq 4h - Equilibrium 4 hours
OTE 4h - Optimal Trade Entry 4 hours
NDOG - New Day/Week Opening Gap
NASDAQ Is an August Low re-test inevitable?Nasdaq (NDX) got heavily rejected last week on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and almost reached on Friday its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That was the level that was brutally breached on the August 05 Low, which only found Support on the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and rebounded.
Technically those last two MA trend-lines are the long-term Buy Zone of the 2-year Channel Up that started after the October 13 2022 market bottom of the Inflation Crisis. Based on the last two major Higher Lows of that pattern though, it is possible for the index to re-test that August Low as it happened both on December 28 2022 (re-test of the October 13 2022 Low) and September 27 2023 (re-test of the August 13 2023 Low). The latter in fact dived on a 3rd wave a little lower to test the 1D MA200, but this time, this condition has already been met (1D MA200 already tested).
This Low re-test tendency is also evident on the 1D RSI fractals among the Higher Lows sequences. If that scenario is materialized, it would give us both a big bullish and a big bearish development. From the bullish side, a 17300 re-test would form an exact Higher Low at the bottom of the 2-year Channel Up, which is positive as it will fulfil a strong bullish condition to move forward. On the bearish side though, that would mean a breach of the 1W MA50, which technically would be very negative, unless the 1W candle that will break it, manages to close the week above it on a strong bounce.
Until then, lets initially see if the 1D MA200 holds (currently early in the day/ week it does) as if the price reverses here, we can technically have a bottom similar to October 26 2023. In any case, Nasdaq is just above the 1st long-term Buy Zone currently.
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Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (Sept 8th—> Sept 13th)Hello Investors! 🌟 September started with a sharp decline as investors pruned risk assets from their portfolios amid concerns over US economic data and rising worries about growth. Let’s break down the key events that influenced the markets this week. 📉
Market Overview:
The week opened with a broad sell-off across equities, commodities, and crypto, as US Treasury yields dropped to their lowest levels in more than a year. Disappointing August ISM manufacturing data set the tone for a week of worse-than-expected economic readings, stoking fears that the elusive “soft landing” may be slipping further away. US equities gave back all the gains made in the second half of August, with much of the selling attributed to multiple compression, particularly in technology stocks. Nvidia was the most prominent example, with its stock falling ~25% from its earnings peak amid historic daily declines in market cap. The S&P 500 faced resistance near the 5,600 level, struggling above 20x next year’s earnings. By the end of the week, the S&P lost 4.2%, the Dow dropped 2.9%, and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.8%, marking the tech index’s worst decline since November 2022.
Stock Market Performance:
📉 S&P 500: Down by 4.2%
📉 Dow Jones: Down by 2.9%
📉 NASDAQ: Down by 5.8%
Economic Indicators:
WTI Crude Oil: Prices slid to their lowest levels since June 2023, prompting OPEC+ to extend its 2.2M bpd voluntary production cuts through November.
Bank of Canada: Cut rates by 25 basis points in a move to boost economic growth, while PM Trudeau faced political challenges after losing support from a key coalition partner.
JOLTS Jobs Data: Missed estimates significantly, falling below 8M job openings for just the second time this year. The ratio of job openings to unemployed workers dropped below a key Fed gauge, reinforcing the case for rate cuts.
ADP Employment Report: Hit a three-year low, showing declining pay growth for those who didn’t change jobs, adding to concerns about labor market weakness.
Fed’s Beige Book: Revealed flat or declining economic activity in nine out of twelve districts, suggesting economic sluggishness that could influence the Fed’s next moves.
August Jobs Report: Showed further labor market deceleration, with downward revisions to June and July payrolls. The report kept the door open for more aggressive Fed action, with FOMC officials signaling that at least 50 basis points will be debated at the September 18th meeting.
Treasury and FX Markets:
Yield Curve: Continued to normalize as the US 2-year yield traded 4 basis points below the 10-year rate.
Futures Markets: Priced in over 100 bps of cuts by the end of 2024 and ~225 bps by September 2025.
Dollar/Yen Exchange Rate: Traded close to its August lows, while the VIX volatility index rose above 23 but remained below early August highs.
Corporate News:
Docusign: Posted strong quarterly results and guidance, getting back on track after struggles during the post-pandemic period.
Hewlett Packard Enterprises: Delivered respectable earnings but saw shares fall, as investors were unimpressed with guidance.
Broadcom: Reported an uninspiring Q3, leaving investors with more questions about the pace of AI growth, contributing to broader tech sector pressure.
Nvidia: There was speculation that NVDA had received a subpoena from the DOJ, but this turned out to be false news. While they are under investigation, no formal subpoena has been served yet.
M&A News:
Nippon Steel’s Acquisition of US Steel: Faces challenges as reports suggest the Biden Administration may block the deal on national security grounds.
Verizon: Agreed to acquire Frontier Communications for $9.6B, expanding its fiber network and positioning itself for future growth.
us100 idea with daily fvg and htf swing lows and highsI believe the nasdaq will make a move to the htf sellside liquidity to do a stop hunt and sweep the liquidity, then continue its movement to the daily fvg zone.
NASDAQ won't correct again in 2024It has been almost 1 year (October 24 2023, see chart below) when we called for a mega buy opportunity on Nasdaq's (NDX) last bottom:
As you can see, the index started an insane rally sequence right on that weekly candle and didn't correct again that much before the recent July - August 2024 pull-back.
The gains from that bottom buy signal have been almost +50% and as the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) was tested on the early August Low and held, we expect Nasdaq to resume and maintain the steady bullish trend for the rest of the year.
The next Target before it gives a medium-term correction again in our opinion is 22500, which is exactly on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the October 2022 market bottom.
The reason we project this target is because, as you can see on our October 2023 analysis above, we find remarkable similarities between the 2022 Inflation Crisis correction and the 2008 Housing Crisis.
This is what helped us give the mega buy signal in October, because the price formed a 1W MA50/MA100 Bullish Cross, the first since February 2010 and the correction was contained above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. So with the 1.236 Fib already achieved during the current (blue) Channel Up (see how both recovery sequences take place within Channel Up patterns), the next in line is the 1.618 Fib at 22500.
According to all the above, the next time that Nasdaq could correct might be early in 2025.
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