12/11 NQ & YM Market AnalysisMarket Insight: Bears in Control, Detox in Progress
Today's market sentiment mirrors yesterday’s, with bears continuing to dominate. Traders should respect the bearish trend and prioritize short-selling strategies.
🔻 Bearish Strategy Insight:
The market needs to release recent pressure to achieve optimal "detox" effects. Only after a sufficient correction can the market stabilize, setting the stage for potential bullish attempts later.
🔺 Bullish Opportunity Watch:
While bears maintain control, conservative traders are advised to stay on the sidelines. If bearish momentum weakens after pressure release, bulls may seize the opportunity to challenge the life line levels. These levels will serve as critical resistance points for any upward attempts.
📌 Trading Suggestions:
Short-Term Bearish Bias: Follow the trend, avoid counter-trend trades.
Bullish Entry Timing: Wait for bearish momentum to fade before considering long positions cautiously.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and not investment advice.
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NASDAQ 100 E-MINI FUTURES
NASDAQ: Buy near the 4H MA50.Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 62.360, MACD = 259.490, ADX = 43.763) as it remains within the medium term Channel Up. The recent bearish wave is correcting the uptrend towards the 4H MA50, which if technically holds, should give way to the new bullish wave. The 4H RSI is headed towards its S1 Zone, which is the buying level so you can time the entries acccordingly. Our target is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 22,000).
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Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/10/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
12/10 NQ & YM Market Analysis: Bears in Control, Awaiting RebouAs expected, U.S. markets continued their decline yesterday, with both the Nasdaq (NQ) and Dow Jones (YM) indices retreating further. The bears have firmly taken the lead, pushing the market downward and releasing selling pressure.
📌 Key Price Levels (Chip Life Line):
Dow Jones (YM) Life Line: 44,511
Nasdaq (NQ) Life Line: 21,468
🔴 Market Outlook: Bears Lead, Watch for Rebound Signals
📉 Early Session: Bears Maintain Pressure
The bearish momentum from yesterday is expected to persist through the early session. Selling pressure may continue dominating, making early entries risky. It’s wise to stay patient and avoid premature buying.
📈 Late Session: Rebound Potential
If selling pressure eases, the market could stabilize and attempt a rebound later in the session. Watch for key price levels being tested or reclaimed near the life lines for signs of recovery.
⏳ Strategy Insight: Stay Patient, Wait for Signals
With bears holding the upper hand, let the market fully digest selling pressure. Focus on observing how the market interacts with critical levels, especially near the life lines, before considering entry opportunities.
📢 Action Plan:
Monitor closely for signs of market stabilization or reversal.
Stay cautious and avoid hasty entries until support levels are confirmed.
Watch for potential breakouts or retests of key life lines for better trading signals.
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US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H)
Trade Logic:
- Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe.
Confluence Factors:
- Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs.
- Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade.
- Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in.
- Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management.
- Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500.
Macro Context:
- Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone.
- Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum.
- Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends.
Additional Consideration:
While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
NASDAQ consolidation until the CPI.Nasdaq (NDX) hit our 21650 Target that we set exactly 2 weeks ago (November 25, see chart below) and is now entering a consolidation phase (orange Rectangle):
As long as the 4H MA50 holds, the uptrend will stay intact within this 3-month Channel Up. We believe that this consolidation is similar to the September 13 - 19 price action, which also started after a +6.80% rise and with the support of the 4H MA50, it resumed the rally and peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we expect Nasdaq to stay ranged until Wednesday's U.S. CPI report and following that to resume the uptrend, targeting 22300 (just below the 1.5 Fib).
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Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/09/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
NQ1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
Previous week’s green candle means that for us the NQ1! pair is in the uptrend. And the current movement leg was also up but the resistance line will be hit soon and upper BB band proximity will signal an overbought condition so we will go for a counter-trend short trade with the target being at 21,113.75.
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NQ Week of Dec8 Levels and Areas of Interest Part 1 (4h Chart)Shorter time frame chart with more specific near term levels, mostly bearish. Any bullish numbers refer to the Daily chart in part 1 and look for those upper level trendlines. Not much else to say on this one, any questions feel free to ask.
NQ Week of Dec8 Levels and Areas of Interest Part 1 (1d Chart)Daily Chart for NQ this week. Hard to be a bear, but looking hard to be a bull as well. When everyone expects it to trade like a 2016 Trump victory, that's normally when it doesn't. Just saying. Not bearish but cautious for sure. "They" have been sizing out since the end of July / Start of August (check the overnight gains versus us opens) and leaving retail with the bag. FOMO seems to be kicking in everywhere. That's a minor synapses without going far into the macro details, and the sizes being thrown around on dark pools. Anyway, part 2 will have shorter term areas (mostly for bear setups, bounces, dips etc).
Anything higher I have to rely on the trendlines since we are essentially in price discovery mode if we keep pushing. Looking for resistance on the top trendlines, and imagine the bottom short term trend line will be easily broken if we have any corrections. Good luck this week, feel free to ask any questions if anyone reads this :)
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities
The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights.
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Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ
Inflation and Sentiment
- University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%)
This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts.
- University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8)
The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index.
Labor Market Insights
- US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%)
A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k)
Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle.
- US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%)
Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures.
Federal Reserve Dynamics
- Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled.
This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds.
- Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%.
Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments.
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Seasonal and Sentiment Factors
Historical Seasonality
December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by:
- **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies.
- **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year.
- **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm.
Investor Sentiment
- The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains.
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Revised NASDAQ Outlook
Positives:
1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand.
2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop.
3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability.
Risks:
1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta.
2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing.
3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector.
Conclusion
The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/06/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower.
Considerations
The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights.
For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately.
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
Requested NQ Levels - NQ Bias chartJust one of my charts requested by the two people who read. On the 4h time frame they DO NOT, and I'll repeat, DO NOT leave fair value gaps untested. The only one theyve left is from the August 5 Yen unwind, which was quite artificial. Anyway, not super bearish or bullish, just cautious at the moment. Risk reward for me plays out in a question that sounds like, "Do you want to risk -30% for another +10%?" or would you rather forgo the 10% and find something a bit more better value? Think that's how a lot of NQ stocks are being looked at end of year. Again not calling for a rug, but quite possible NQ lags the IWM for this next leg. We will see, anyway feel free to ask any questions the chart is a bit messy, like my brain.
NASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities
The NASDAQ index remains a focal point for investors, driven by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory hurdles and mixed economic data. Here's a closer look at the factors shaping the index's performance and its outlook for the coming weeks.
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Key Factors Driving NASDAQ
Tech Rally and AI Optimism
NASDAQ has seen robust gains, fueled by the dominance of tech stocks. Investors continue to bet on the long-term potential of AI, boosting companies like Microsoft and Meta. However, Microsoft faces regulatory scrutiny from the FTC over its AI software sales, which could weigh on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is adapting its strategies to align with the evolving political landscape, including engagement with the Trump administration's policies.
Strong Corporate Performance
- Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding expectations, though adjusted EPS disappointed.
- Microsoft and other tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI, supporting long-term investor optimism.
Despite some challenges, the technology sector remains a key growth driver for NASDAQ, supported by innovation and strong demand for digital products and services.
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Macroeconomic Data and NASDAQ
Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy
- ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, indicating slower growth in the service sector, a key driver of consumer demand for technology.
- Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, meeting expectations and signaling economic stability.
- Construction spending increased by 0.4%, reflecting robust investment activity.
While these figures present a mixed picture, stability in other areas, such as the labor market (JOLTS job openings at 7.744 million in October), provides a solid foundation for the market.
Federal Reserve Policy and Its Impact on Technology
The Federal Reserve is slowly pivoting toward a more dovish stance. An anticipated rate cut in December, currently priced at a 74% likelihood, could benefit technology stocks, which are sensitive to borrowing costs. The Fed forecasts gradual disinflation toward a 2% target by 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for the tech sector in the long term.
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Seasonality and NASDAQ
December has historically been a strong month for tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ, driven by:
- Seasonal consumer spending, particularly on electronics and digital services.
- End-of-year portfolio rebalancing by investors.
- Optimism surrounding technological advancements and innovations.
The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at 56, indicates a sentiment skewed toward greed, often a precursor to further short-term market gains.
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NASDAQ Outlook: Technology at the Forefront
As a leader in the technology space, NASDAQ has strong fundamentals to end the year on a high note. Robust demand for AI-related technologies, stable economic data, and Federal Reserve support create a positive backdrop for the index. However, investors must remain cautious about potential risks, including:
- Regulatory challenges for tech giants.
- Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains.
- Uneven progress in disinflation, which could prolong restrictive monetary policies.
With optimism surrounding technology and potential monetary easing, NASDAQ remains an attractive choice for long-term investors. However, key events such as quarterly earnings and further Federal Reserve decisions will significantly influence the index's trajectory. For now, the tech rally seems well-supported, but vigilance is essential.
US 100 Trade LogUS 100 Buy SIgnals
Two potential long opportunities have been identified, but caution is advised due to the possibility of stop runs. The market could easily disrupt both trades, so this requires close observation and adherence to the system. Discretionary judgment will play a role here, but the focus remains on structured analysis.
Trade Setup :
1. Entry Zones : Buy within the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG).
2. Risk Parameters :
- First Position: 0.5% risk
- Second Position: 1% risk
3. Stop-Loss Size : Fixed at 90 points for both trades.
4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) : 1:2 for both positions.
5. Caution : Be wary of potential stop hunts in these volatile zones. Monitor closely for signs of market manipulation or sudden reversals.
I am also weary of the strong divergences on both the MACD and the CVD. So be careful with risk assessment today.
Alternate Targets For NQ All Time HighsIn my previous post, I showed an NQ target price of 21,712.25 based on the Fib Extensions from the overall move in the market on higher time frames. However, using Fib Extensions from the more recent move (lower time frames), I have come up with two alternate reversal points for NQ.
These alternate levels are 21,540.25 which price came into EOD, and 21,650.50 which would be considered our next target above.
Weird Bull Market Movement? Concerning?Basically since the august 5 bottom it looks like big boys have been sizing out consistently. This doesn't go back that far, but if you look further back youll find the same result. Just food for thought, not calling for a rug trade but I would be very aware and vigilant. Seems like we are one jenga block away.
Can post levels if anyones interested about where the dip and rip levels may end up.
NQ All Time High Breakout And Targets 12/4The Nasdaq (NQ) has surged past its previous all-time highs, setting a new milestone with a target of 21,712.25 based on Fib Extensions. While the index could pull back for a retest of these previous highs, it also has the potential to continue its rally straight toward the target. Stay tuned as we watch for potential price action! 📈 #NQ #Nasdaq #AllTimeHighs #StockMarket
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 FuturesThis analysis highlights key Support zones for intraday trading, based on the provided chart.
Analysis
The Nasdaq 100 has reached its all-time highs, meaning there are currently no technical resistances above the current levels. However, we can identify some support zones where the price might bounce or reverse.
Considerations
To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.