NQ1! BEARS ARE GAINING STRENGTH|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the NQ1! pair and we can see that the pair is going up locally while also being in a uptrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB upper band being nearby, indicating that the pair is overbought so we can go short from the resistance line above and a target at 14496.25 level.
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Nq1!short
NQ1! Will Fall! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 14542.50.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 14221.50 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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Grabbing the best possible trade on NQ1!Obviously, going short at every supply zone or going long at every demand zone doesn't work every time. If it did trading would be too easy and no one would lose. So, how do we trap the losers and become the winners? Wait for a liquidity sweep above, most often indicated by a bearish shooting start candlestick with a close back below the supply zone. Previous shorts will be stopped out and new longs will be trapped. That's the best possible time to enter short and ride the reversal back down here on CME_MINI:NQ1!
NQ1! BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello,Friends!
NQ1! uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 14201.50 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the NQ1! pair.
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NQ1! SELLERS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so NQ1! is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 13511.25.
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NQ1! Will Move Lower! Short!
Take a look at our analysis for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 6h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is trading around a solid horizontal structure 13516.50.
The above observations make me that the market will inevitably achieve 13324.00 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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NQ1! SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello,Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so NQ1! is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 13279.50.
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NQ1! Will Fall! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for NQ1!.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 13330.25.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 13137.00 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NQ1! SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello,Friends!
The BB upper band is nearby so NQ1! is in the overbought territory. Thus, despite the uptrend on the 1W timeframe I think that we will see a bearish reaction from the resistance line above and a move down towards the target at around 13060.75.
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$spx/$nq1! potential wave 2 bottom | macro short siganlinteresting chart here.
we have spx/nq1!, the bottom formed in nov '21. this was a great 'exit all markets' signal.
local top was jan '23, which was a great 'risk on' signal.
now we're in a potential wave 2 zone with rsi hitting oversold for the first time since 2020.
i think this will turn into another macro 'exit all markets' signal.
NQ1!: VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINT OF CONTROL / OVER SUPPLY / MACRODESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MACRO analysis on NQ1! which runs a similarly distinctive path to SPY, SPX, & ES1!. This chart is designed to create a clear separation between periods of volatility and shift in momentum. Each cycle beings and ends in the given order of OVERSOLD to OVERBOUGHT to OVERSOLD.
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 900 Points per Supply & Demand Channels. Deviation of 1,000 Points between Supply & Demand Pockets.
2. Current Cycle END was predicted by taking the average of past 4 cycles which results in a MEAN VALUE of 78 BARS.
3. Green Vertical Lines: Beginning of Bear Market & upcoming end of following cycle.
4. Orange Vertical Lines: Represent flip in MACD trajectory and overall shift in Pice Action Momentum.
5. ARCS represent OVERSUPPLY Price Action Momentum where price action lacks consolidation and is making brief REACH OUT of past Supply & Demand Pocket.
IMPORTANT: Current POINT OF CONTROL stands at 11,700 in relation to current Supply & Demand Pocket.
MACD: MACD EMA flips on the DAILY timeframe are indicative of a shift in in momentum.
RSI: A common RSI level of 35 is reached throughout every cycle which is indicative of an upcoming shift in trend.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action must find support at 11,700 with either a strong bounce from bottom of DEMAND ZONE OR SIDEWAYS CONSOLIDATION at the very least.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario price action breaks past 11,700 to the downside and further continues downward momentum to 10,700 which would be the SPY LEVEL EQUIVALENT of 360.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:NQ1!
NAS100 pepperstone [M]update feb-mar 2023
Continuation short, fibs are based off NQs 2200(price) gain back in 2010'
Very, very long timeframe fib retrace in play.
Supporting narratives? capital crunch from boomers exiting capital + deglobalisation pushes due to conflicts based on demographic declines, deglobalisation pushes due to growing reluctance to freely share Intellectual Property or freely secure transportation or cooperate with international maritime laws and standards.
Free capital shortage until millennials reach the production class stage, (large generation to provide capital again)(maybe 10-15 years)
Why I chose to short NQ? being the most speculative and averaging higher than reasonable p/es its safe to assume that capital will exit these asset classes before more productive or illiquid assets could. Less ballsy then shorting Bitcoin, but I think i've found a sweetspot
Tech stocks are quiet literally based on assumed sustained exponential rates of development, while in general investors ignore the luxuries that have provided the tech industries foundations. I.e cheap capital, unhindered outsourcing/subsidisation, and unhindered free trade (subsidised trade).
If you can't secure resources or their transportation
If you can't secure cheap capital indefinity
If you can't secure cooperation with multiple countries and multiple supply chains
Then the system will need to go through a phase of Darwinian re-exploration to re-define efficiency. Its the most logical outcome which will conclude with a period of lower valuations until capital becomes more readily available atleast.
Things to watch?
Nations will be reindustrialising and renationalising because it will be mandatory. Periods of higher inflation will be evident, maybe akin to something more 'natural' without subsidiation abroad. (higher than the past 20 year average). Higher inflation is normal because a. reindustrialisation is the most inflationary stage of economic development because you are quiet literally rebuilding the road.
Redesigning an efficient, self sustaining path will cost in the short term, but in the long term it will create a much more secure environment, that's why i say its darwinian.
BUT, yes all we need to do is wait for the millennials to come into the production stages of their lives (40s-50s) and economic booms should follow (so late 50s earlys 60s will be their wealthiest). It will be the same for their offspring, so capital booms will arise when the millennials reach their early 60s, and when their offspring reaches their early 60s and so on. One thing to note is if we continue down the path of smaller and smaller generations, we could very well be living right now (or the past 5 years) in the most capital rich (relatively) era in recorded history.
Coming from.. well i believe I'm a zoomer right? (24 this year) its quiet daunting to think about, but this play is literally the only 'invest for the long-term' play that I have.
Want to thank Peter Zeihan for his continued works, and for his astute insights on current affairs, and for providing a great outline or general trend on where the world is going in the years to come.
NQ going into the CPI releaseHere is a quick update for those who follow my work and are not on our new site yet.
It's a critical turning point here, going into the CPI report, so I want to share my thinking, and hopefully, you won't get trapped regardless of tomorrow's am outcome.
I'm doing a more detailed analysis, but I will post a short version here.
First of all, I pointed out last week that the 11th should mark the important high.
Well, we got it!
Now, it doesn't have to be a daily high, but the daily closing high! So tomorrow can be an intra-day high with am spike.
I still think we could get a sort of OCT 13th CPI release action, but in another way - Gap and Dump!
If CPI will come in-line or a bit higher, let's say 6.6-6.7%, it can produce a knee-jerk reaction and sell from there.
There is a good fib confluence at 11600NQ for that move.
Our main target got hit today, and I warned yesterday, that it should see a higher number; it did!
The price has closed right at the resistance, so it satisfied the whole move up right there, in case it is just going to dump from the open
Support and resistances are on the chart.
I will also be doing SPX update and will post it at the end of the week here.
This chart should be enough for those looking for a good analysis out there without any commitment.
So don't be surprised if you see a big spike up, DO NOT chase it!
If it happens, I will use that opportunity to add to my short position
NQ getting close to the target zone.Tomorrow is a day for the high, the day after is a turning day.
It can extend into 13806 and 13866-88. Want to see a good size pullback into the 26th and then possibly one more push into 14k zone.
200% extension off Jun lows is at 13866
Im short 2.5NQ as of close, will take profits if we get a good size pullback.