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NQ1

US 100 Trade LogUS100 Long Setup (1H) Trade Logic: - Entry: Long within the 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located in the discount zone relative to this timeframe. Confluence Factors: - Bullish Momentum: The market is strongly bullish, with price action consistently breaking resistance and forming higher highs. - Relative Aggression: While the FVG is in a discount zone on the 1H timeframe, higher timeframes do not confirm the same, making this a relatively aggressive trade. - Supportive Context: Recent pullback aligns with the FVG, offering a potential continuation opportunity as buyers step in. - Risk-Reward: Minimum 1:2 RRR with a tight stop-loss of 50 points, ensuring disciplined risk management. - Target: TP1 at the next intraday resistance; TP2 near psychological levels like 15,500. Macro Context: - Market Sentiment: Strong risk-on sentiment in equities as major indices rally, supported by favorable economic data and dovish central bank tone. - Tech Strength: Nasdaq constituents leading the charge with inflows into growth and tech sectors, further reinforcing bullish momentum. - Volatility: VIX remains low, indicating stable conditions conducive to continuation of bullish trends. Additional Consideration: While this setup is aggressive, the bullish momentum makes it a calculated risk worth attempting. Keep stops tight and monitor if price fails to hold the FVG. Reassess if higher timeframe resistance levels come into play, suggesting a larger pullback.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
NASDAQ consolidation until the CPI.Nasdaq (NDX) hit our 21650 Target that we set exactly 2 weeks ago (November 25, see chart below) and is now entering a consolidation phase (orange Rectangle): As long as the 4H MA50 holds, the uptrend will stay intact within this 3-month Channel Up. We believe that this consolidation is similar to the September 13 - 19 price action, which also started after a +6.80% rise and with the support of the 4H MA50, it resumed the rally and peaked on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we expect Nasdaq to stay ranged until Wednesday's U.S. CPI report and following that to resume the uptrend, targeting 22300 (just below the 1.5 Fib). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/09/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower. Considerations The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights. For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately. To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
NQ Week of Dec8 Levels and Areas of Interest Part 1 (1d Chart)Daily Chart for NQ this week. Hard to be a bear, but looking hard to be a bull as well. When everyone expects it to trade like a 2016 Trump victory, that's normally when it doesn't. Just saying. Not bearish but cautious for sure. "They" have been sizing out since the end of July / Start of August (check the overnight gains versus us opens) and leaving retail with the bag. FOMO seems to be kicking in everywhere. That's a minor synapses without going far into the macro details, and the sizes being thrown around on dark pools. Anyway, part 2 will have shorter term areas (mostly for bear setups, bounces, dips etc). Anything higher I have to rely on the trendlines since we are essentially in price discovery mode if we keep pushing. Looking for resistance on the top trendlines, and imagine the bottom short term trend line will be easily broken if we have any corrections. Good luck this week, feel free to ask any questions if anyone reads this :)
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ajx1124
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride! * I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by RT_Money
4
NASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ - Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index continues to capture investor interest, buoyed by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory, economic, and geopolitical hurdles. The latest macroeconomic updates and Federal Reserve signals add further dimensions to the narrative shaping the index’s performance. Here’s an expanded analysis, incorporating fresh data and insights. --- Key Macroeconomic Updates Influencing NASDAQ Inflation and Sentiment - University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Actual 2.9% (Forecast 2.7%, Previous 2.6%) This slight increase in inflation expectations signals that consumer inflation concerns remain elevated, despite Federal Reserve efforts. Persistent inflationary pressure could temper optimism around rate cuts. - University of Michigan Sentiment Index: Actual 74.0 (Forecast 73.2, Previous 71.8) The stronger-than-expected sentiment reading reflects consumer confidence in economic resilience, which could support continued spending on technology and digital services, bolstering the NASDAQ index. Labor Market Insights - US Unemployment Rate: Actual 4.2% (Forecast 4.1%, Previous 4.1%) A modest uptick in the unemployment rate suggests a cooling labor market, potentially reinforcing the case for monetary easing. - US Nonfarm Payrolls: Actual 227k (Forecast 220k, Previous 12k, Revised 36k) Strong job growth underscores economic stability but adds complexity to the Federal Reserve's inflation battle. - US Average Earnings YoY: Actual 4.0% (Forecast 3.9%, Previous 4.0%) Wage growth remains steady, indicating ongoing consumer spending power but also signaling potential inflationary pressures. Federal Reserve Dynamics - Fed's Bowman: Progress on inflation seems to have stalled. This commentary reinforces market expectations of a more accommodative monetary stance to counter economic headwinds. - Short-Term Interest Rate Futures: A sharp rise post-jobs report indicates an 85% chance of a rate cut in December, up from 67%. Lower borrowing costs would directly benefit the tech-heavy NASDAQ, as growth stocks typically outperform in low-rate environments. --- Seasonal and Sentiment Factors Historical Seasonality December has historically been favorable for the NASDAQ, driven by: - **Seasonal Consumer Spending:** Electronics and digital services see a surge, supporting revenue for tech companies. - **Portfolio Rebalancing:** Institutional investors often position portfolios for growth into the new year. - **Optimism Around Innovation:** End-of-year announcements and advancements in technology further fuel investor enthusiasm. Investor Sentiment - The **Fear & Greed Index** remains at 55, leaning toward greed, signaling potential for continued short-term market gains. --- Revised NASDAQ Outlook Positives: 1. **Tech Momentum:** The AI-driven rally continues, with companies like Microsoft and Meta capitalizing on innovation and demand. 2. **Federal Reserve Support:** Increasing odds of rate cuts and gradual disinflation expectations create a favorable macro backdrop. 3. **Resilient Economic Indicators:** Strong labor market and durable goods data point to economic stability. Risks: 1. **Regulatory Headwinds:** Scrutiny over AI and antitrust issues may weigh on tech giants like Microsoft and Meta. 2. **Inflation Uncertainty:** Stalled progress on disinflation could delay aggressive monetary easing. 3. **Geopolitical Tensions:** Ongoing global supply chain disruptions pose risks to the tech sector. Conclusion The NASDAQ index is well-positioned to close the year on a strong note, underpinned by robust demand for technology, favorable monetary conditions, and consumer confidence. However, vigilance is essential as regulatory, geopolitical, and inflation-related risks remain prevalent. Key developments, including Federal Reserve decisions and corporate earnings, will be pivotal in shaping the index's trajectory into 2024.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 Futures - 12/06/2024This analysis focuses on the Nasdaq 100 Futures, aiming to identify potential support and resistance levels where the price could experience intraday bounces or trend reversals, as well as zones where the price might potentially break higher or move lower. Considerations The range used in this analysis serves only as a reference for broader-level insights. For intraday operations, it is advisable to utilize a lower timeframe to refine entry and exit points more accurately. To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
Requested NQ Levels - NQ Bias chartJust one of my charts requested by the two people who read. On the 4h time frame they DO NOT, and I'll repeat, DO NOT leave fair value gaps untested. The only one theyve left is from the August 5 Yen unwind, which was quite artificial. Anyway, not super bearish or bullish, just cautious at the moment. Risk reward for me plays out in a question that sounds like, "Do you want to risk -30% for another +10%?" or would you rather forgo the 10% and find something a bit more better value? Think that's how a lot of NQ stocks are being looked at end of year. Again not calling for a rug, but quite possible NQ lags the IWM for this next leg. We will see, anyway feel free to ask any questions the chart is a bit messy, like my brain.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by ajx1124
4
NASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and OpportunitiesNASDAQ: Technology Leads Amid Challenges and Opportunities The NASDAQ index remains a focal point for investors, driven by the strength of technology and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, while navigating regulatory hurdles and mixed economic data. Here's a closer look at the factors shaping the index's performance and its outlook for the coming weeks. --- Key Factors Driving NASDAQ Tech Rally and AI Optimism NASDAQ has seen robust gains, fueled by the dominance of tech stocks. Investors continue to bet on the long-term potential of AI, boosting companies like Microsoft and Meta. However, Microsoft faces regulatory scrutiny from the FTC over its AI software sales, which could weigh on short-term performance. Meanwhile, Meta, led by Mark Zuckerberg, is adapting its strategies to align with the evolving political landscape, including engagement with the Trump administration's policies. Strong Corporate Performance - Salesforce reported Q3 revenue of $9.44 billion, exceeding expectations, though adjusted EPS disappointed. - Microsoft and other tech giants continue to invest heavily in AI, supporting long-term investor optimism. Despite some challenges, the technology sector remains a key growth driver for NASDAQ, supported by innovation and strong demand for digital products and services. --- Macroeconomic Data and NASDAQ Mixed Signals from the U.S. Economy - ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1, below expectations of 55.7, indicating slower growth in the service sector, a key driver of consumer demand for technology. - Durable goods orders rose 0.3%, meeting expectations and signaling economic stability. - Construction spending increased by 0.4%, reflecting robust investment activity. While these figures present a mixed picture, stability in other areas, such as the labor market (JOLTS job openings at 7.744 million in October), provides a solid foundation for the market. Federal Reserve Policy and Its Impact on Technology The Federal Reserve is slowly pivoting toward a more dovish stance. An anticipated rate cut in December, currently priced at a 74% likelihood, could benefit technology stocks, which are sensitive to borrowing costs. The Fed forecasts gradual disinflation toward a 2% target by 2025, potentially creating favorable conditions for the tech sector in the long term. --- Seasonality and NASDAQ December has historically been a strong month for tech-heavy indices like NASDAQ, driven by: - Seasonal consumer spending, particularly on electronics and digital services. - End-of-year portfolio rebalancing by investors. - Optimism surrounding technological advancements and innovations. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at 56, indicates a sentiment skewed toward greed, often a precursor to further short-term market gains. --- NASDAQ Outlook: Technology at the Forefront As a leader in the technology space, NASDAQ has strong fundamentals to end the year on a high note. Robust demand for AI-related technologies, stable economic data, and Federal Reserve support create a positive backdrop for the index. However, investors must remain cautious about potential risks, including: - Regulatory challenges for tech giants. - Geopolitical tensions impacting global supply chains. - Uneven progress in disinflation, which could prolong restrictive monetary policies. With optimism surrounding technology and potential monetary easing, NASDAQ remains an attractive choice for long-term investors. However, key events such as quarterly earnings and further Federal Reserve decisions will significantly influence the index's trajectory. For now, the tech rally seems well-supported, but vigilance is essential.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
US 100 Trade LogUS 100 Buy SIgnals Two potential long opportunities have been identified, but caution is advised due to the possibility of stop runs. The market could easily disrupt both trades, so this requires close observation and adherence to the system. Discretionary judgment will play a role here, but the focus remains on structured analysis. Trade Setup : 1. Entry Zones : Buy within the 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) or the 4H Fair Value Gap (FVG). 2. Risk Parameters : - First Position: 0.5% risk - Second Position: 1% risk 3. Stop-Loss Size : Fixed at 90 points for both trades. 4. Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR) : 1:2 for both positions. 5. Caution : Be wary of potential stop hunts in these volatile zones. Monitor closely for signs of market manipulation or sudden reversals. I am also weary of the strong divergences on both the MACD and the CVD. So be careful with risk assessment today.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Fondera
Intraday Levels for Nasdaq 100 FuturesThis analysis highlights key Support zones for intraday trading, based on the provided chart. Analysis The Nasdaq 100 has reached its all-time highs, meaning there are currently no technical resistances above the current levels. However, we can identify some support zones where the price might bounce or reverse. Considerations To confirm the validity of these levels, it is essential to evaluate real-time conditions as the price approaches these zones. Factors such as pressure, trading volume, and Order Flow will play a critical role in determining whether these supports hold or are likely to be broken.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Giovanni_Bandini
NASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic DataNASDAQ – Solid Foundation Amid Positive Economic Data The NASDAQ index is finding strong support from favorable U.S. economic data and a stable macroeconomic outlook, particularly benefiting from the resilience of technology and growth sectors. Amid signs of moderating inflation and potential easing by the Federal Reserve, **seasonal trends strongly favor the NASDAQ, as December is historically a strong month for equities, especially tech-heavy indices. --- Key Economic Drivers Supporting the NASDAQ 1. ISM Manufacturing PMI – Signs of Stabilization - The **ISM Manufacturing PMI** for November rose to **48.4**, exceeding expectations, though still signaling contraction. This reflects progress toward stabilization in the U.S. manufacturing sector. - Slower input cost inflation and renewed job creation are positive signs for the broader economy, indirectly supporting growth-oriented sectors such as technology. 2. Construction Spending Growth - Construction spending** increased by **0.4% in October, showcasing resilience in the housing and infrastructure sectors. This strength in spending highlights consumer and government investment, which can indirectly benefit tech companies involved in digital infrastructure and smart technologies. 3. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid – Easing Inflationary Pressures - The ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid** index dropped to **50.3**, significantly below the forecast of **55.2**. This is a positive development for inflation control, signaling moderating cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. - Implications: - Positive for equities: Lower inflation reduces the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes, a scenario that benefits rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Stable monetary outlook: A gradual shift toward easing monetary policy supports technology stocks reliant on lower borrowing costs. 4. Fed Officials’ Support for Gradual Easing - Recent Fed commentary suggests a balanced approach to monetary policy: - **Christopher Waller** emphasized the possibility of a rate cut in December, citing a balanced labor market and controlled inflation progress. - **John Williams** forecasted GDP growth of **2.5% in 2024** while reiterating that inflation is expected to return to the 2% target. This fosters confidence in growth-oriented sectors like technology. - A potential rate cut would be particularly favorable for the NASDAQ, as tech companies are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates. 5. Consumer and Business Optimism - The **S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI** indicated improving confidence and renewed job creation despite lingering challenges such as reduced international demand. This optimism supports steady sentiment for growth sectors. --- Seasonality and Market Sentiment Seasonality is a critical tailwind for the NASDAQ at this time. December is traditionally a strong month for the tech-heavy index, supported by holiday-driven consumer spending, portfolio rebalancing, and end-of-year tax strategies. The current **Fear & Greed Index**, standing at **64**, indicates a **greed-driven sentiment**, which typically aligns with upward momentum, especially for high-growth sectors. --- NASDAQ Outlook The NASDAQ is well-positioned to capitalize on these favorable conditions: - Easing inflationary pressures reduce the likelihood of aggressive Federal Reserve tightening, which is particularly supportive for rate-sensitive growth stocks. - Strong GDP growth projections and a resilient labor market provide a stable foundation for tech earnings and innovation-driven sectors. - Seasonal trends, combined with improving macroeconomic sentiment, create additional momentum for the NASDAQ as the year-end approaches. While global uncertainties and international demand challenges remain, the NASDAQ's long-term prospects remain **bullish**. Seasonal strength, positive economic data, and the potential for a more accommodative Fed policy stance are all aligning to favor continued gains for the index.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
NASDAQ Santa rally is starting.Nasdaq (NDX) has been following the blueprint of the 2020/21 Bull Cycle to high precision so far, as we showed on our analysis almost 4 months ago (August 19, see chart below): As you can see it is already marching towards Target 1 (23250) on the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, well inside the Channel Up. We expect that to get hit by the final week of December, which can be translated as the infamous 'Santa rally', a frequent seasonal price increase at the end of the year. As mentioned, this Channel Up displays strong similarities with the patterns of August 2020 - November 2021 and before the COVID crash of December 2019 - February 2020. All those Channel Up patterns are within the dominant long-term structure of the 6-year Bullish Megaphone. The key here is for the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) to hold and continue to offer support, as within those 6 years the only two times it broke were during the corrections of the 2022 Inflation Crisis and the March 2020 COVID flash crash. As long as it holds, the current Channel Up should, besides the immediate Target 1 (23250), complete the sequence and peak towards the end of 2025 as close to a +185% rise (from the October 2022 bottom) as possible. This is why our long-term strategic Target (2) is a little lower at 27000. As a side-note, see how well the 1W RSI held and bounced in September on the Symmetrical Support Zone, in similar fashion as 2020 - 2021. Also the 1W MACD displays a similar pattern between the two fractals. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ: Strong bullish breakout today targeting 21,600Nasdaq is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 61.836, MACD = 123.620, ADX = 32.041) as today posted the strongest 1D candle since Nov 7th, extending the new bullish wave. The whole sequence is supported by the 1D MA50 since September 12th. Even though we are technically more than halfway through the wave, this is still a strong buy opportunity, aiming for a +6.80% rise (TP = 21,600) as it has previously done so inside the 3 month Channel Up. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestingScope
Nasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising OptimismNasdaq Modest Gains Amid Mixed Data and Rising Optimism The market’s performance reflects ongoing digestion of mixed US economic data, supportive seasonality, and cautious optimism among investors. US Economic Data Highlights Recent economic data provided a mixed picture of the US economy, driving market fluctuations: - **Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Oct):** Fell to -0.40, below the expected -0.2. - **Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Came in at -2.7, worse than the forecast of -2.4. - **New Home Sales (Oct):** Declined to 0.61M, significantly missing expectations of 0.73M. - **Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov):** Plunged to -14, below the forecast of -10. - **Durable Goods Orders (Oct):** Increased by just 0.2%, underperforming the 0.5% forecast. - **Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 23):** Reported at 213K, slightly better than expected (216K), but still pointing to a resilient labor market. - **Chicago PMI (Nov):** Dropped to 40.2, well below the anticipated 44, highlighting weakness in manufacturing. Market Sentiment and Seasonality Seasonality continues to work in favor of the Nasdaq, as historical trends during this time of year often support equities. The **Fear & Greed Index**, currently at **66 points**, indicates moderate optimism and a "Greed" sentiment, encouraging risk-on behavior among investors. Rate Cut Expectations Markets remain focused on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming meeting on **December 18th**, with a **62,2%% probability** currently priced in for a **25 basis-point rate cut**. Such a move could provide additional support for equities by easing financial conditions, though its long-term impact remains uncertain. Geopolitical Risks Despite today’s recovery, geopolitical risks linger in the background. The ongoing war in Ukraine remains a significant concern, with potential implications for global energy prices, supply chains, and economic stability. Long-Term Trend Intact, but Volatility May Persist The Nasdaq’s long-term upward trend remains intact, supported by strong fundamentals, favorable seasonality, and investor optimism. However, the current environment of mixed economic data and rising policy uncertainty suggests that short-term volatility may persist. Broader Context Recent data highlights a steady but moderating US economy, while forward-looking risks remain: - **Global Economic Outlook:** The S&P Global forecast projects global GDP growth of approximately 3% by 2025, with US growth slowing to below 2% next year and China toward 4%. - **US Policy Risks:** Potential policy changes under the new administration could elevate inflation pressures and tighten financial conditions, introducing further uncertainty for equity markets. Implications for Nasdaq Supportive seasonality and the potential for a December rate cut may provide short-term stability. However, investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties could lead to continued market volatility. What’s your outlook for the Nasdaq after today’s recovery? Can the index build on these gains, or will headwinds from economic data and global risks limit its upside? Share your thoughts in the comments!
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate