MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/20/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/20/2025
📈19850 19900
📉19760 19670
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NQ1
This RUT/NDX ratio may convince you to buy NASDAQ aggressively.Nasdaq (NDX) has been under heavy selling pressure in the past 30 days. This short-term pull-back however is nothing but a buy opportunity on the long-term, and this study shows you why.
The answer lies on the RUT/NDX ratio which shows that this may be the time to get heavier on tech. The use of the Russell 2000 index (RUT) is due to the fact it represents a wider array of companies. Naturally over the years (this 1M chart shows data since 2006), the ratio declines within a Channel Down as historically the riskier tech sector attracts more capital and grows more.
However there are instances where Russell gains more against Nasdaq. We are currently though at a time where this isn't the case as the ratio seems to be ready for decline following the completion of a consolidation that on previous fractals (March 2015, September 2008) was bearish, thus positive for Nasdaq.
As you can see, this movements can be grasped by the Sine Waves, though not perfectly, but still good enough to understand the cyclical pattern we're in, also with the help of the 1M RSI Triangles.
Nasdaq (which is represented by the blue trend-line) has started massive expansion Channel Up patterns following this unique signal given by the RUT/NDX ratio. The first was right after the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom and the second during the 2015/ 2016 E.U., VW and Oil crisis.
The key here is on the 1M RSI. The Triangle is about to beak to the upside and every time this happened in the last 20 years, it coincided with a pull-back on Nasdaq (blue circle) similar to the current one. What followed was massive rallies each time.
As a result, this could be an indication that even though the tariffs have rattles investor confidence lately, this is an opportunity for a strong buy position for at least the rest of the year.
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MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/18/2025
📈20040 20085
📉19670 19620
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/19/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/19/2025
📈19900 19950
📉19670 19620
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NASDAQ: 4H MA50 broke. Time for a full recovery.Nasdaq is still bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.669, MACD = -426.120, ADX = 56.837) but crossed above its 4H MA50. The last time a bearish wave of this Channel Down crossed above the 4H MA50 was on August 9th 2024. It was achieved again after an oversold 1D RSI bounce and initially hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level and then peaked on the 1.382 Fib extension. The trade is long, TP1 = 21,500 and TP2 = 23,400.
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MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/17/2025
📈19850 19940
📉19670 19570
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
NASDAQ Most critical 4H MA50 test in 7 months!Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 11 2024 High. The price action since the February 18 2025 High was been the patterns Bearish Leg and like the August 05 2024 bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line, it was done on an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI.
Now that the price has Double Bottomed and bounced, it came across today with a 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) test. 7 months ago it was that test and eventual break-out that initiated Nasdaq's 4-month non-stop rise. Initially once broken, the first target was just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, you can get a confirmed buy signal once the index closes above the 4H MA50 and target 21450 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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$NQ IdeaOn the monthly chart, NQ maintains its bullish structure, confirming an uptrend. However, in recent weeks, the price has undergone a correction, pulling back to an equilibrium zone before potentially resuming its predominant upward movement. We can see that the price is holding at the Mean Threshold of a monthly rejection block, while also forming an SMT on swing lows with ES and YM on the weekly chart.
Since we trade on an intraday basis, it is essential to analyze multiple timeframes to confirm our bias. On the weekly chart, last week's candle swept the previous week's low and closed below the range. However, given the presence of an SMT at the lows, it is unlikely that the price will target the PWL (Previous Week Low). Instead, a correction toward a discounted area on H4 could occur before the bullish movement begins.
This scenario makes sense because the H4 chart has engineered liquidity in a premium zone, and the price is still trading within that area. Furthermore, last week's shift in market structure confirmed a bullish bias on H4, but before resuming the uptrend, we might see a sell-off to clear liquidity, as the price remains in a premium zone on H4.
Based on the economic calendar, there is a possibility that the weekly low will be formed on Monday, creating an opportunity for a counter-trend trade early in the week. However, this setup carries high risk, requiring caution and confirmation before entry.
For this week, we are looking for bullish opportunities toward equilibrium or until the price encounters resistance to continue rising. However, this outlook will be adjusted as price action unfolds throughout the week.
It is also worth noting that this will be a challenging week, due to a lack of major economic news and an upcoming Federal Reserve speech on interest rates, which could significantly impact the market and increase volatility.
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/14/2025
📈19570 19660
📉19380 19285
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/13/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/13/2025
📈19660 19760
📉19470 19380
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/12/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/12/2025
📈19760 19850
📉19570 19475
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/11/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/11/2025
📈19470 19560
📉19380 19285
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/10/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/10/2025
📈20040 20140
📉19760 19665
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
Appetite For Risk Through the Lens of Nasdaq and BitcoinBitcoin tends to track Wall Street sentiment well, particularly compared to the Nasdaq. Growing concerns that Trump's policies will tip the US (and therefore the global economy) into a recession, which currently has the Nasdaq on the ropes and bitcoin getting dragged along for the ride. And there could be further losses to follow, though a cheeky bounce at a minimum could be due first.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com
NASDAQ: Oversold at the bottom of 8month Channel Up.Nasdaq is oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 26.693, MACD = -501.840, ADX = 53.670), which is the most oversold 1D RSI reading since August 15th 2015. In the meantime, it touched the HL bottom of the 8month Channel Up, a bearish wave that looks much like July 2025. The bullish wave that followed topped on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. If candle closings are contained inside the Channel Up, we expect it to attract a lot of new buyers and initiate the new bullish wave to at least the same Fib. Long trade, TP = 23,400. A closing under the Channel Up, should test though the 1W MA100 (TP = 18,000).
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NASDAQ below its 1W MA50 after 2 years. Doom or recovery ahead??Nasdaq (NDX) broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years (since week of March 13 2023). That is a strong long-term Support, in fact it is technically the first level to look for during cyclical bull trends. So how bad can a break and/or 1W candle closing below it?
As you can see on this multi-year chart on the 1W time-frame, since the 2008 Housing Crisis, the index has had a number of breaks below its 1W MA50. With the exception of the 2022 Inflation Crisis, which was a cyclical Bear Market like 2008, all of those breaks were short-lived and rebounded on the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) almost instantly.
In fact, the current technical pull-back resembles the June - August 2011 correction, which after breaking below the 1W MA50, it found support and rebounded on the 1W MA100 in 2 weeks. The rebound that followed rose by +38% in 7 months. If a similar development is followed, which is what we expect, we are looking at a potential end-of-year rally to 24900. This also took place on the 2019 rally.
What makes this 17-year recurring pattern even more interesting is that technical pull-backs such as the current, tend to take place when the 1W RSI Channel Down, a technical Bearish Divergence) hits 40.00 and makes a Lower Low (green circles).
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MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/07/2025MNQ!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 03/07/2025
📈20328 20420 20515
📉19860 19765
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
S&P, NASDAQ, DOW JONES Weekly Market Forecast: Mar 10-14 In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, AND DOW JONES Futures. We'll determine the bias for the upcoming week, and look for the best potential setups.
Markets have been bearish due to mixed numbers employment, Fed statements, and uncertainty in US trade policies. Are the markets poised for a bounce back week? Perhaps. Traders will need to exercise patience before jumping in these volatile markets, waiting for the proper confirmations before we determine a bias. Once the markets tip their hand in that way, we can take advantage.
Enjoy!
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Validation of a long term top in the SPX continues to playballLast week I posted an update on my SPX cash index analysis...found below.
At the end of last week, we see where the price action has been filling in nicely as of Friday. Some key take-a-ways. First, is the price action has breached the area that I am counting as the wave 4 of one lesser degree. This would be an initial clue that the bull market pattern that started back in August of last year is cracking. This would be the area that I am counting as the intermediate wave (4). I am forecasting this recent price action down is the Minor A wave of the beginning of a stair stepped decline that has a high probability of coming back into that area of the August 2024 lows after we retrace higher in a minor B wave, labeled in Red.
What's important about price coming back into this area of approximately 5121-4950 is this the area that price could hold and manage a higher high, essentially meaning that my count is off by one degree...and what I am counting as a wave (III) super-cycle top will get pushed out to end of 2025-2026. However, to breach this area even incrementally, would provide much the same clues we're getting now, about price breaching the minor wave 4 of one lesser degree.
Below this must hold area, is where my forecast of a super-cycle wave (III) gets confirmation...until then we look for clues of validation...but confirmation does not come until price cane breach this area. To breach this area would reflect in price action that resembles the below.