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The Implications of the US Unemployment Rate - It Is Higher Now What is moving lately? The US unemployment rate has edged up. We can see from past cycles that when unemployment numbers started breaking above their downtrend, crisis occurred. Micro E-Mini Nasdaq Futures and Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:UNRATEShort
by konhow
NASDAQ Held the 1D MA50 and is rebounding.Nasdaq (NDX) almost hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on Friday and immediatelly rebounded yesterday, in anticipation of high cap earnings starting tonight with Tesla and Alphabet. The 1D MA50 has been intact as the major Support of the Channel Up pattern since May 06. The previous two Bullish Legs rallied at least +10.37% before the next short-term pull-back, so we are setting a new Higher High (top of the Channel Up) Target on Nasdaq at 21450. Notice also the harmonic occurrence of the bottoms (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up as highlighted by the Sine Waves. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
5
US100 Outlook ICT ConceptsUS 100 Analysis 💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 💡Previous Analysis Review: In our previous analysis, we anticipated a break in the market structure (MSS). Following this break, we saw a retracement higher into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) before the price continued to move lower, as expected. 📍Current Market Overview: At the moment, the price is situated at the 50% level of the range. We can foresee the price potentially expanding further downwards to target the Equal Lows (EQL) and the Sell Side Liquidity (SSL). Additionally, a tap into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also within the realm of possibility before a move higher. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights several significant levels and zones that influence the current market behavior: • PWH: Previous Week High, indicating recent market highs. • PWL: Previous Week Low, serving as recent support. • MSS: Market Structure Shift, indicating a change in the market direction. • SIBI: Sell-side Imbalance, indicating areas of market imbalance. • Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap, highlighting areas of imbalance on the daily timeframe. • SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, areas where sell orders are placed. • EQL: Equal Lows, indicating levels of support and potential liquidity. 📊 Key Considerations • Current Price Position: The price is currently trading around 19,704.9, after breaking the MSS and retracing back higher into the FVG before continuing lower. • Range Midpoint: The price is in the 50% of the range. • Daily FVG Reaction: The Daily Fair Value Gap is expected to act as a significant support zone if the price reaches it. • EQL and SSL Levels: These levels below the current price are significant areas to watch for a potential retracement and liquidity grab. 📈 Bullish Scenario Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met: • Expansion Lower: The price may expand lower to take out the Equal Lows (EQL) and the Sell-side Liquidity (SSL). • Daily FVG Tap: A potential tap into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) could provide support. • Retracement Higher: After sweeping the EQL and SSL, and reacting at the Daily FVG, we can expect the price to go higher. 📉 Bearish Scenario A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met: • Minor Buy-side Liquidity Taken: For any short case scenario, we need minor buy-side liquidity (swing points) to be taken first. • Continuation Lower: After taking out the buy-side liquidity, the price may continue lower. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially retrace lower to take out the EQL and SSL, tap into the Daily FVG, and then go higher. Bearish Expectation: For a bearish scenario, we need minor buy-side liquidity to be taken out first before considering short positions. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
4
NASDAQ Still a few weeks before it tops.Nasdaq (US100) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 2022 market bottom and at the moment is unfolding its 3rd major Bullish Leg of the pattern. Supported on the short-term by the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), the index is aiming for at least a +26.20% rise from the April 15 Low, as the 2nd Bullish Leg rose by 5% less than the first. The price has entered its peak formation process on the Channel Up Higher Highs as the 1W RSI has been overbought (above 70.00) for a month, similar to when the top started forming in June 26 2023 and February 2024. Our immediate short-term Target remains 21300 as per our previous analysis. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
1
Cyclically speaking....is it time to sell stocks?Introduction Within the larger Elliott Wave community (of Elliottitions; practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory) there has been an ongoing notion, that is gaining in popular perspective, that the US stock markets are very close to entering a super cycle wave (IV)…myself included. However, from what we know of Elliott’s original work, which was based on social and economic behaviors concerning market participants, and the use of Fibonacci numbers…is when this normal cycle starts, we will not know with a high degree of certainty this is what is occurring likely until its ending. Background Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant by trade born the late 19th century who also studied the US Markets. Post the 1929 stock market crash, and as a reader of Charles Dow’s Customer Afternoon Letter, (which later became the basis for today’s Wall Street Journal) Elliott began to formulate the basis of Elliott Wave Theory by noticing patterns that seemingly repeated (mathematical fractals) across monthly chart timeframes, all the way down to the 30-minute increments of price action within the stock markets. He stated that the behavior of market participants was cyclical in their actions, predictable in the outcome, and therefore highly forecastable well into the future. Although Elliott Wave Theory is criticized for a multitude of reasons that I will not get into here, I can clear up this, or any criticism of the technical analysis by simply stating I use EWT everyday as a trader to make a living. If the principles largely bare out each and every day on the smaller scales, regardless of the security (as long as there is a large number of participants) it’s highly implausible they would NOT fail when applied to the very long-term charts. My Analytical Perspective From Elliott’s original work he wrote… Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets. In the above chart you'll notice I have placed a red target box in the area of where a normal a-wave would reconcile to. It is while involved in this initial decline of a super cycle wave (IV) that sort of market reaction will be reported as a deep, but common run-of-the-mill bear market that was overdue. Given the meteoric rise in stock prices, it only stands to reason that we would consolidate those. This will give credence to my suspicion that we will not know we're only just starting this long-term consolidation. What will follow next should be a very long drawn-out b-wave, that has the protentional to rally back towards the current levels (maybe slightly below). This portion of the pattern will take many years, possibly a decade. The price action will take long enough to where participants may even feel that the a-wave bear market is over, and we're now involved in another bull market cycle to new highs. This will go a long way to justifying the narrative that the previous market decline was a speed bump on the way to much higher levels now. Again, Elliott states with respect to a b-wave in general and how we could potentially view this portion of the super cycle wave (IV). Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative. The b-wave, from bottom to top, can provide opportunities for traders for the duration as it will be a trader’s market. This is where the majority of this long term cycle will reside. The final outcome of a super cycle wave (IV) and why I state in the beginning of this article as to why we may not know this was a multi-decade super cycle wave (IV) is prices may be approaching the previous highs before we get one of two outcomes of neither are good. The first outcome is a stock market crash that could resemble it’s cyclical wave (II) but in alternating form. This would be devastating loss of wealth in a very short term period of time…whereas, the second option is a slightly more controlled decline, and although not classified as a stock market crash, will certainly feel like one as the declines will be steady, consistent and overtime versus all at once. In conclusion, could the current price action to higher levels continue to persist? Yes. I am not saying this market has topped. No key levels of support have been breached. The trajectory I am expecting is as per the below and as key levels of price action that have supported this rally are breached the pathway forecasted takes on a more standard decline based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Daily Chart Only cycle a-wave labeled. Cyclically speaking....is it time to sell stocks? I cannot answer that because the strategy of investing in the stock market depends on the person, their age, and their investment goals. These are decisions only you can make.
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
12
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100 , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights crucial levels and zones influencing the current market behavior: • PMH: Previous Month High, a resistance level where liquidity might accumulate. • PWL & EQL: Previous Week Low and Equal Lows, key levels for potential liquidity captures. • BSL (ATH): Buy-side Liquidity at All-Time High, indicating where traders have placed their buy orders. • SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, indicating where traders have placed their sell orders. • FVG: Fair Value Gap, marking areas of market imbalance. • SMT: Smart Money Technique, at lows with the pair ES. 📊 Key Considerations • Swept PMH and Low Resistance Liquidity: The market has recently swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created. • Strong Displacement Lower: The price displaced strongly lower, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG). • SMT (Smart Money Technique): At lows with the pair ES, indicating potential bearish sentiment. 📉 Current Price Action The market has swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created, leading to a strong displacement lower. This displacement has resulted in the creation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which the price is likely to retrace back into before continuing lower. 📈 Bearish Scenario Given the current market sentiment and the strong displacement lower, the bearish scenario is favored: • Retrace into FVG: The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing to move lower. • Targeting Lower Levels: After retracing into the FVG, the price is likely to continue lower, targeting the PWL, EQL, and SSL for potential liquidity captures. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary The market has shown a strong bearish sentiment by sweeping the previous month high and low resistance liquidity, followed by a strong displacement lower. The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing its downward movement, targeting key levels such as the previous week low, equal lows, and sell-side liquidity. The presence of SMT (Smart Money Technique) at lows with the pair ES further supports the bearish sentiment. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Editors' picks
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
19
75: Post-Liquidation Strategy for Nasdaq Mini FuturesAfter liquidating longs at the low, we aim to hold the level of 20,712 in the Nasdaq Mini Futures market. Recent market movements have shown increased volatility, making it crucial to identify key support and resistance levels. Staying informed about macroeconomic events and earnings reports is essential as these factors can significantly impact market direction. Bullish Scenario: If we maintain this level, we will wait for a gain at 20,713 and then look for new highs around 20,752. Bearish Scenario: When losing this level (20,712), we will shift our focus to 20,686 and wait for new scenarios to develop. Staying vigilant and adaptable in this volatile market environment is key to navigating potential trading opportunities and risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Soldi75
NASDAQ Slow and steady rise within a 3-month pattern.Nasdaq (NDX) is simply extending the new Bullish Leg of the now almost 3-month (since April 19) Channel Up (blue) pattern. Supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it should stay this way until the next Higher High, which we anticipate to be at 21300 at least. That will be almost a968% rise, which is the smallest Bullish leg registered on the May 23 Higher High. The other was +10.40%, so there is a high degree of symmetry among the Legs of this Channel Up. The 4H CCI on each Bullish Leg is also fairly symmetrical and it shows where we cyrrently might be relative to the previous sequences. Note also that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been unbroken since May 06 (more than 2 months), indicating that at the moment is the strongest medium-term Support. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot