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NQ1

Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Nasdaq unbeatableCurrent Market Data and Seasonality Nasdaq closed last week at new highs, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term. On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year. S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market. AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024 In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment. S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025 Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples. Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers. Consumer Spending Trends Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations. S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals. Key Economic Events in the Coming Week Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets: Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for Nasdaq. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq ready to rally higherNasdaq ready to rally higher On Tuesday, the Nasdaq index closed its session with a 1% increase, drawing significant attention from investors worldwide. This optimistic outcome was largely driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose speech was notably dovish and full of optimism about the current economic situation. Here are some of his key statements: Fed's Powell: "The disinflation trend shows signs of resuming." "The data represents significant progress." "If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, that would also cause us to react." "The risks are becoming much more balanced." "Inflation may get back to 2% late next year or the following year." These remarks have provided a significant boost to the markets, fueling further growth. Moreover, we are entering the best period of the year in terms of returns on American indices, which statistically averages over 2% in July during bull markets. Statistical Analysis: Bullish Market Signals Below, we present several statistical data points that confirm the bullish nature of the current markets: Economic Growth: The growth rates are at very satisfactory levels, contributing to overall market optimism. Retail Positioning: Retail investors are currently 67% positioned for a decline, which is actually a positive signal for continued market growth. When a large portion of the market bets on a decline, it often sets the stage for a contrarian upward movement. Job Openings: The JOLTs Job Openings for May came in at 8.14 million, surpassing the expected 7.91 million. This indicates a robust labor market and strong economic activity. Interest Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.5%. This expectation of lower borrowing costs is another factor that has fueled the recent market rally. Tomorrow, we await critical data releases, including the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes, which are expected to further reinforce Powell’s bullish stance. In conclusion, the current market conditions, coupled with optimistic statements from key policymakers, suggest a positive outlook for the Nasdaq index. The statistical data and upcoming economic reports will be crucial in confirming this trend. As we move forward, staying informed and attentive to these developments will be essential for making well-informed investment decisions. The market is showing signs of strength, and with the right insights, investors can navigate this landscape effectively.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
3
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights several key levels: Previous Week High (PWH) Previous Week Low (PWL) Previous Month High (PMH) Previous Day Low (PDL) Fair Value Gap (FVG) Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) 📈 Current Price Action The price has recently broken above the Previous Week High (PWH) and the Previous Month High (PMH). It has also taken out the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), indicating that significant buy orders have been filled, which may lead to a reversal or retracement . 🔻 Potential Short Scenario Given that the price is currently in a premium zone after taking out the BSL, a retracement lower is likely. Key levels to watch for a potential short scenario include: PDL (Previous Day Low): The price could retrace towards this level, which may act as support. PWL (Previous Week Low): This level is also significant and could act as a target for the retracement. FVG: The Fair Value Gap below the current price may attract the price to fill this gap, leading to a further move down. 📉 Long Scenario Considerations For a long scenario, we need the price to react positively at key support levels. Confirmation for long positions can be found by observing the lower time frames (LTF) for: Low Resistance SSL: Watching for lower resistance sell-side liquidity being taken in lower time frames can indicate a possible shift towards bullish momentum. 🔎 Lower Time Frame Confirmation SSL (Sell Side Liquidity): In lower time frames, observing the price action around these SSL levels can provide clues for potential long entries. If the price takes out these SSL levels and reclaims them, it can indicate a buying opportunity targeting higher levels such as the previous highs or the FVG above. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary Current Price at Premium Zone: After taking out BSL and PMH, a retracement is expected. Key Levels Above Price: The price is currently above PWH and PMH, indicating it is in a premium zone. Key Levels Below Price: PDL, PWL, and FVG are potential targets for a retracement. FVG: This gap below the current price is an area of interest for a potential retracement. By considering these key levels and market behaviors, traders can better prepare for potential scenarios, whether the market continues higher or retraces to lower levels. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
2
NASDAQ Nothing to stop this uptrend. Next stop 21300.Time to update our Nasdaq (NDX) thesis from 2 weeks ago (June 20, see chart below), where we called for a pull-back and then a buy on a 20700 Target: As you can see we got the short-term correction within the (dotted) Channel Up and the index resumed the long-term uptrend of the 8-month (blue) Channel Up. Supported by both the 4H MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect this uptrend to be extended in a similar way as the January 2024 post 4H MA200 correction rebound. That sequence completed a +25.78% from the October 2023 bottom, before pulling back near the 4H MA200 again. As a result, we upgrade our Target to 21300, closer to the top of the long-term Channel Up. See also how symmetrical the 1D MACD fractals are between the 2 sequences. We should now be expecting a Bullish Cross, to confirm this Leg's continuation. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
1
NASDAQ Time for a Correction?NASDAQ Time for a Correction? The recent events in the financial markets have highlighted growing uncertainty and the potential for a correction in the NASDAQ. A thorough analysis of both fundamental and sentimental factors provides valuable insights for investors looking to make informed decisions. Technical Overview This past week, NASDAQ failed to surpass its recent peak, marking a significant technical signal. There is a strong divergence appearing on technical analysis indicators such as RSI and MACD, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Macroeconomic Events The upcoming week is set to bring several key events that could significantly impact the markets: Tuesday: Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak. Recent statements from Fed officials hint that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, potentially leading to further pressure on interest rate hikes. Wednesday: The release of the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes. These reports could set the tone for the markets in the coming weeks, offering insights into future monetary policy directions. Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls data, eagerly awaited by the market. The results could influence short-term economic expectations and future Fed decisions. Seasonality and Sentiment We are entering a period of seasonal stagnation and potential correction, which is typical in a U.S. election year. Market seasonality often affects investor behavior, leading to greater caution and reduced activity. COT Report and Market Sentiment The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates that 47.12% of funds hold short positions on NASDAQ, suggesting a bearish outlook among major market players. Additionally, retail sentiment is also negative, with around 60% in short positions. To avoid being on the wrong side of market sentiment, it would be preferable for this sentiment to drop to lower levels. The current situation on NASDAQ is fraught with uncertainty and potential challenges. Technical signals are warning of a possible correction, and upcoming macroeconomic events could bring further changes. Seasonality and market sentiment also indicate potential difficulties. Investors should remain cautious and be prepared to adjust their strategies quickly in response to evolving conditions.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by InvestMate
3
NASDAQ Literally nothing to stop this long-term rally.Earlier this month (June 07, see chart below), we explained why we were very bullish long-term on Nasdaq (NDX) using the 1W time-frame: The price rose from 19000 to 19750 since and there is literally no technical sign of stopping this tremendous rally yet. In fact, today we bring you another approach, this time on the 2M time-frame. As you can see, since November 2023, the index is past a Bullish Cross on the 2M LMACD. Since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we have witnessed this signal only 3 times. In fact, despite the presence of a relentless 14-year Channel Up, the most recent LMACD Bullish Cross resembles more the first one on November 2009. Even though the 2022 Inflation Crisis wasn't the same as the 2008 Housing Crisis, it is the strongest we saw since then. The chart clearly shows that 2-year Channel Up (blue)/ Bullish Legs have been the vessels of upward continuation within the 14-year Channel, while at the same time +135% rises have been quite common. As a result, before the current rally takes a breather, we can expect to see as high as even 24500 (+135% from the November 2022 bottom). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by TradingShot
Nasdaq Slapped- Like u saw yesterday, BTC dipped but the main reason for now is just the global economy being worst. - Nasdaq Companies made big % lost yesterday - here the main list - www.cnbc.com - The Covid19 caused a fast dip followed by a mega pump based on stimulus (brrrrr), now the real dip is ongoing. ---------------------------------- Trading Part ( Long Term ) ---------------------------------- - Buy 1 : 12,000$ - Rebuy : 10,500$ - 11,000$ TP : before 20,000$ ---------------------------------- - This Analyze of course can be faked by a strong money printing (Brrrrrrrrrrrr) Happy Tr4Ding and St4y Safe !
ULong
by thecryer
38
US100 ( NASDAQ ) Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 📊 Let's Discuss NASDAQ Let's discuss my favorite asset, NASDAQ. The first thing we need to consider is the Smart Money Technique (SMT) which appeared on the ES (S&P500) chart yesterday, and now reflects on the NASDAQ chart. This technique is currently positioned below the chart. 📈 Anticipating Price Expansion We can anticipate the price to expand higher into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) resting above the current price, potentially reacting to the Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) levels. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch In our key level area, we have the Midnight Open Price (00:00 NY Time) at 19691.5. Currently, the price is above this midnight open level, indicating a deep premium level, which supports our short scenario. 🔑 Liquidity Levels At the start of the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) we have both the 4-hour previous high, which is a buy-side liquidity (BSL), and a 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG). These are the key liquidity levels to watch. 📉 Long Position Scenarios For any long position scenarios, we need the sell-side liquidity to be taken out, which is quite far from the current price. We can look for lower time frame low resistance liquidity or the 50% retracement of the current range, resting at 19633. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
1
Weekend Wizardry On Crude OilRight now It makes no sense in my mind why the market would want to return to being bearish. Yes we are in a premium and after a couple days of upwards movement there can be some stagnent action for traders who like to take more than 25-40 ticks ona single move. So again why would market want to move lower on a htf bases as pointed in my arrows we have a Daily FVG whcih I will be watching price to respect and create a discount in that FVG The wicks from Friday and Monday Daily chart show immediate rebalance and a propell higher is what I am looking for. Given Monday can be opposing price to what Tues and Wed Provide... wink wink Magnet shows my target for next week. to revisit this and whilst in fvg how do we close? Daily fvg CE? I really do look at price on the day to day basis weekly targets yes but this is a subconscious thought when im trading pacific times of the day.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by IamThattrader
NASDAQ Minor correction expected. Where to buy?Nasdaq (NDX) has almost reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up pattern that started on the October 26 2023 bottom. The last Higher Low was made on April 19 2024 and ever since, a strong Bullish Leg in the form of a Channel Up (dotted), took the index above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 4H MA200 (red trend-line). Since the last Bullish Leg topped at around a +20.87% rise, we can assume that the price has entered a rejection zone. The only parameter left to confirm this, is for the 1D MACD to form a Bearish Cross. As you can see the two Bullish Legs are fairly similar so far in their price action. With the late December 2023 - early January 2024 pull-back bottoming on the 4H MA200 exactly, we are expecting a symmetrical pull-back to that level again, where we will be looking to add more buys and target 20700 (top of the 8-month Channel Up). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100
by TradingShot
1