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Nq100

NQ1!, Inside Day, Be prepared for a Move TomorrowAn inside day that offered short and long opportunities. Usually, such days are a prelude for volatility spike and range expansion the following day. Be on a look out. I have adjusted the last box moving up the balance bottom higher. Here is the reason: it would more crucial for the buyers to hold that bottom . As you can see that bottom is a multi day bottom, and a break of the 20 EMA. If the buyers loose it it would be quite bearish. Neither Econo report made a difference on the price action today. The RTH session ended up with a doji daily candle with a slight bullish skew. If the buyers capitalize on today's gain then my preference is to see the expansion to upside. Keep in mind, tomorrow is end of the week, quarter, and month. Plus OPEX. All that only adds odds to volatility expansion. 03/28/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Market is Addressing the Weak StructureToday's action had a complete sense. In the previous post I mentioned a channel structure , part of the flag pattern, that may serve as a bull trap (see the chart). The sellers broke that channel and that accelerated the downside move. It was a decent short setup. Then the price hit daily 20 EMA which attracted long term buyers. A nice bounce that recovered 50% of the RTH session. The second setup was long. Could've been a bear rally? Sure, but nevertheless, bear rallies are quite violent and lucrative for day time trading. Today, the Apple saved the indices again. If not the Apple the downside move would've been much bigger. Out of the FAANG stocks only the AAPL was green all day long and had a decent gain. What to expect: 1. There is a possibility that the buyers will make a move to retest the broken channel where the sellers will have an opportunity to resume selling. 2. If the sellers push harder the anticipated downside target is bottom of the box. 3. There is a GDP report coming. That may interrupt the market action short term. When the dust settles we should see the continuation to the expected target. 4. It is possible that today's long term buyers turn around the price and start pushing higher back to the recent highs. If todays low is not breached then we may see a bottom of the range much sooner than expected. Watch for FAANG stocks to get a clue of what is coming. 03/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Sellers are Lurking in the DarkIn the Globex session the buyers were dominating. The price was grinding up all night. The momentum was picked up by the RTH buyers from the getgo but they failed. The sell side took a turn and dominated the entire RTH session. The sellers showed up at 61.8% of the downside swing. The buyers might have a chance if they continue a grinding up action. But they got exhausted moving too fast right into the resistance. Sometimes I think such moves are originated by the sellers themselves who want to sell at specific price level. They just need to push the price and suck in new buyers creating enough liquidity. From the market structure perspective no changes. As I mentioned in the previous post when the bias is neutral and the scene of crime is in middle of the projected area (the box) both sides make swings trying to run stops and create momentum trades. What to expect: 1. If the buyers manage to hold the last 2 days low they have a chance to retest today's high. In case of a strong upside momentum they may have a chance to retest the recent high. It is within a day reach base on the current volatility level. 2. Loosing the recent days low would open a door to retest the bottom of the balance. It is too early to say but from a price pattern perspective we may have a channel forming (shown on the chart) that may serve as a bull trap. 03/26/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, No strong Selling, Balanced SessionThere is no strong selling during the RTH session. In fact, it was a very balanced session offering trading opportunities for buyers and sellers. If today's low is not breached we may see an upside move into Friday's range. That would be a sign of buyers stepping in. My anticipation is for the price to balance within the last box. Only breaching it to downside or upside would provide a market direction. The short and intermediate biases remain neutral while the large is bullish. 03/25/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Strong Rejection Suggest the Short term TopA strong down move initiated from the Globex session found continuation in the RTH. Not often we can see the Globex and the RTH traders agendas in sync. A rejection from the large timeframe resistance suggests that the price discovery is done and the short term top is established. We may see a continuation to the downside to solidify the balance bottom. On the chart the last box bottom is an approximation based on the recent action. But the market will make the last stroke and show the exact place. The short term bias now is neutral. The large and intermediate biases remain bullish. During the RTH session the FOMC level 7376.25 found some buyers. It provided a tradeable reaction to upside. But eventually, the sellers overpowered and made a new low. The price hit a good support level which is a confluence with a VWAP originated from 7072.75 launching point(RTH). I added a Fib retracement on the recent upside swing. As you can see the price did not reach 38.2%. The buyers can show up at those levels and reverse targeting the balance top and even higher. With increased volatility and daily ranges that recovery is not hard to achieve for the buyers. In the following days we may see a battle between buyers and sellers, a blow exhange, and spike in volatility. This is typical when the bias shifts to neutral. Being in the middle of the projected balance the price will be going up and down meaninglessly. Momentum trades will dominate creating larger swings. It requires to read the market in real-time. Outside of the price action analysis: There is a beginning of the share buy back blackout period. That could slow down the buyers and only increase the odds for choppy action. Have a nice weekend 03/22/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Apple-mania Makes a New High The market made a significant move today driven by a panic buying of beloved FANG stocks and especially the Apple. The Globex session suggested a weak opening especially after yesterday's FOMC move that was completely faded. But the buying from getgo immediately set the tone. In such days it is not easy to get on board. The Algos were in a rush to buy, like there is no tomorrow, not giving a chance for a decent pullback. The love for FANG stocks is in the air again. Until that love turns into a hate the indices will be marching up. The price hit a marked on the chart resistance level. I did not expect to see it hit today. Will we see some notable pullback? During the RTH session the resistance has provided a shallow pullback. I even shorted it but managed to squeeze 10 handles only. It was not worth it to attempt considering such a strong bullish momentum. It was simply too risky. Tommorow is Friday and usually the buyers want to close that weekly candle in green. The bias across all the timeframes is bullish. Such bias does not die overnight. Pullbacks will find new buyers who missed the move. However, one need to consider a decent location or stay on the sideline until the dust settles. 03/21/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
9
NQ1!, Approaching a Gap and 7400 Inflection Point In the RTH, the buyers were active from getgo not giving a chance to enter long. I’m sure it is annoying for retail traders but this is the current state of the market. Seeing some divergences one need to be careful with longs from aggressive location. I was thinking about a short opportunity and was looking for a failure. The QQQE index that tracks Nasdaq equal weighted hit all time high and that impacted the futures and a short setup got materialized. In a very bullish environment shorts are required a precise timing and a proper target management. Otherwise better to skip them. The short created a strong momentum and in real-time a daily candle looked horrible for the bulls. But the sellers failed after a slight violation of the support. That presented a long opportunity. At this point we may see some continuation to upside, the 7400 resistance is a confluence of a round number and a gap left from October. The large cap techs continue to prop the price. Until the buy back stops we may see the price at higher prices and low volatility. If today’s low is taken out it could put some selling pressure but I expect the buyers to be active at every support. 03/18/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, New High, Hit ResistanceToday's quadruple witching day helped to advance the price across the board and break through recent resistances. Note: the price hit a strong resistance. It could be a short term top of the new balanced area. There is a possibility that we see a pullback to retest the new balance bottom. With the current level of bullishness the buyers will be active at every support on the way down. The NQ remains the strongest among the equity indices. A few of the big tech are in the breakout mode and push the NQ up. The NQ pushes up ES and YM. The Russell 2000, RTY, that represents a broader market, did not share the same enthusiasm. In fact, it started to crack down first and even made a new low of the day. What it means remain to be seen. Usually, the Russell is a leading indicator especially for S&P. But if the tech remains strong it could keep the S&P at the higher prices. My anticipation is to see some balancing in the upcoming sessions within the last box on the chart. The price is exhausted and need to rest and get more strength before going up. But this is the market and we may see more upside first. 03/15/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, inside day, small rangeThe market took time today to rest and digest its next move. Both sides were active today and the Algos played a ping pong game. That offered trading opportunities at the edges. In my view the short term bias switched to neutral today. The large and intermediate biases remain bullish. However, the daily candle close is bearish. It suggests a continuation to downside. This is what is expected. A new balance is being formed and the market is in the discovery to set the edges. Tomorrow is quadruple witching and we may see some erratic moves. Today’s action is not indicative of what to expect next. The buyers managed to defend 50% of yesterday’s range. Buying pullbacks is still a lower risk strategy. Until we see a strong rejection forcing to flip the bias that strategy is dominant. 03/14/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, The Breakout is confirmed, Approaching a Major ResistanceToday, the price continued to advance tagging 7300 level that was a magnet. The buyers are in firm control. The breakout of the mature balance area is a strong bullish bias . However, there is a potential strong resistance ahead that may cause a hurdle for the buyers. We may see profit take. A retest of the breakout area may offer a nice long opportunity. Usually, the timeframe alignment has a short shelf life. A few days of balancing and the bias starts to shift to neural. Even today, the buyers failure has been spotted on a smaller timeframe that created a nice short setup in the afternoon session. Whether it was triggered by a news or not does not matter. The Algos reversed the direction and trapped some weak hands that had to cover their positions. The price retraced half of the RTH session. Overall, it was a green day across the indices. The BA continued to drag the Dow down but a strong buying of heavy tech stocks helped the Dow. All indices are correlated. At this point, buying pullbacks strategy remains intact. Perhaps 7400 is a new magnet. However, short setups may present themselves any time. No need to predict. Any resistance is only a potential resistance. If the sellers gain a short term control on a smaller timeframe then a short setup could be attempted. The important thing is not to overstay. 03/13/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Remains Strongest Among the indicesThe price broke above the mature consolidation area today and closed with a bullish candle. Driven by heavy technology stocks the index performed better than the rest of the indices. However, the breakout was not strong. The reason for that is the exhausted move from the bottom of the consolidation. The price did not have enough time to rest. I consider this breakout as continuation of yesterdays move with slowing momentum. Feels like the train is slowing down :) The price action today was very mechanical. The Algos were buying at predefined levels that was easy to predict and enter long. It did not require to read the market. The participation was low though. I anticipate the price to stay within a new area that was developed during the Globex and RTH sessions today. A break below today's low would be a first sign of weakness but consider the following: there is a timeframe alignment bias wise, long term and intermediate biases are bullish. A break to upside would be in alignment with the that bias. The 7300 target is a magnet. 03/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, False Breakdown Sparked a RallyIn my previous idea I said that the Friday's price action suggested a potential false breakdown out of the multi-day consolidation area. Today, it was confirmed by a trend up day across the entire consolidation area. This is what is expected. When it comes to a false breakout or breakdown of a mature balance there is 80% chance to fill that balance from edge to edge. It works on any timeframe. Honestly, I did not expect that to happen in one day. My expectation was 2 days based on the recent average daily range. But the aggressive buyers pushed the price all the way up. At this point, the price is exhausted and if some continuation happens the upside could be limited. My anticipation of inside day tomorrow where some profit will be taken and the price will spend time fixing the market structure. Long term view: the mature balance created at the edge of the important resistance may serve a launching point to upside targeting all time hight . This is a high odds scenario based on the observed price action. The low odds scenario is the downside move that could create a serious drop. There is a lot of trapped buyers in that mature balance. My bias remains neutral. From the market structure perspective no changes. 03/11/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Short Covering Rally or False Breakdown?The day ended with a bullish doji candle leaving everyone guessing what to expect next week. In the last analysis I expressed an idea that if the sellers push lower without spending much time balancing around lower edge we may see a false breakdown. The price traveled from the top of the consolidation area to the bottom and was exhausted already. Well, they did push lower. The NFP report released before the RTH opening pushed the price beyond the consolidation area. The price reached my support level a few minutes after the RTH opening which offered an objective long setup. I considered a better reward for longs. Traders who shorted the breakdown and the RTH opening got trapped during the session and had to cover fueling the upside move. No change from the existing structure perspective though. The sellers made an attempt to breakdown. Whether they succeed or not in the upcoming sessions remains to be see. My bias remains neutral. 03/08/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Neutral-Bullish SentimentAn inside day with a bullish skew. Yesterday's selloff did not scary the buyers. They defended the Globex low and remain in control the entire RTH session. Levels to watch: - aggressive support - 7160-65. Holding above it opens a door to retest the recent high - today's low - 7124.5. An important level to hold for the buyers. Loosing it may open a door for 7070-75 level - 7070-75 is important level to hold, bear gate, otherwise it would open a door to retest 7000 level. - 7211 bull gate. Breaching it would open a door to retest November 2018 high and higher. Depending on the momentum. A note for NQ traders: watch NYFANG index . It was trending almost the entire RTH session. 03/05/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Failed Breakout Pattern Maybe UnfoldingThe Globex buyers pushed the price above Friday's high creating an island structure. An island structure is bearish by nature when it comes at the end of the exhausted bull run. The RTH buyers tried to advance based on the Globex structure but only managed to make a marginal high. I was looking for a failure of the buyers. I was watching 5 min chart to see a rejection. 7210 retest offered a short setup targeting the Globex low initially and then the gap. Failure to attract buyers at those 2 levels led to a forced liquidation. Whoever bought in Globex and the RTH opening became trapped buyers. A false breakout pattern started to unfold and the price moved to February point of control. It was a good support plus the daily range was used. The responsive buyers took advantage of the exhausted move and managed to push the price back into Friday's range defending the March low. If the pattern is in play we may see lower prices - a potential retest of today's low and perhaps 7000-ish area. From the market structure perspective the main multi day balance remains intact (the last box on the chart). A more serious impact will be if the sellers break it. Whether we see the beginning of much expected correction remains to be seen. Note: the buyers managed to park the price above the trend line. We need to see whether it was just an overshoot or they are willing to retest the higher prices. 03/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Keep knocking the ResistanceA first day of the month brought some volatility especially to the RTH opening. The session had opened at the resistance and despite of the aggressive buying the sellers pushed the price back to 7100 ish level. The buyers managed to step in in front of the falling knife and completely reversed the action. This behavior is seen day after day. It means the pullbacks continue to attract the buyers and they are still willing to buy at higher prices. This is the only important information is required for traders the rest is going to derail from the process. The session ended at the top of the current balance. The ES had a similar action. It continues knocking the important resistance 2800 ish. One more push and we may see a melt up. The indices are very correlated. Many large caps are shared among the indices. If one of the heavy stocks , like BA, is being bought it pushes all the indices up. This is the feature of electronic trading that is exploited by market makers. If someone is guessing why SP is going up when seems the broader market does not show any strength - that's the answer. It's 9 weeks in a row the market is green. Obviously, this is annoying for the bears :) Despite all the bullishness it is prudent to remain neutral. The sentiment can change in a spit of a second. Several scenarios could unfold going forward: - A violent breakout to upside. That may squeeze a lot of shorts who see the important resistance and believe the market won't go higher. This is a potential melt up case. - A breakout to upside as a grinding up action, potentially a trend up day. A slow action in a stair case fashion. This is a sneaky case. No strong volume just a methodical advance to upside leaving everyone doubtful about validity of that move. - Remaining in the current balance for some time. A waiting time for NFP, FOMC and other geo political news. - An attempt to breakout and failure. This is a more complicated case cause it requires to spot it on a smaller timeframe and then to stay out of the longs. A short setup with a good reward. 03/01/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
7
NQ1!, The Boys are not Ready to SellA revised chart with a smaller timeframe to see the action. A weak Globex session ended with a snappy buying from the RTH opening. It was a typical morning when the buyers don't give a chance anybody to get in at a good location :) 15 min later the Algos heard the news and reacted quite strongly shaking out buyers. The herd behavior is their signature. They created a strong momentum and it was not a good time to fade that move. A breakdown of the Globex low offered a short setup. However, in this bullish environment the target is tricky. Better not to overstay. The reversal came quite quickly. One of my support zones was slightly violated. The overshoot is typical when the momentum is strong. After struggling to go lower the market offered a long setup. The buyers quickly turned the table and created an upside action completely reversing the move. To be honest I did not anticipate a complete reversal. But the power of momentum should not be underestimated. From the market perspective nothing has changed. However, the daily candles showing lower highs and lower lows. The price remains in the balance which will be eventually resolved. It feels the buyers are on a mission to tag 7200-7220 level. Tomorrow is the last day of February trading and the buyers are eager to finish it in green. 02/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
Nasdaq: Approaching a strong sell signal.Nasdaq has been on a very strong 1W Channel Up since the December low rising non-stop with a few -2% - 3% pull backs along the way. With 1D approaching the overbought territory (RSI = 66.984, STOCHRSI = 99.464, Williams = -13.166, MACD = 117.170, Highs/Lows = 51.8085) a strong sell signal emerges at 7,225. As seen on the chart the rejection levels are roughly where the symmetrical Lower Highs were during last year's correction. Once the rejection takes place our TP will be 7,075. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by InvestingScope
NQ1!, Is Correction Coming or was it just a Blip?Today, the Globex buyers, driven by the news, made a marginal high and got just shy of the projected first target - December 2018 high. Before the RTH opening a few Econo reports helped to move the price lower. It was a bearish start that offered a short setup. Earlier in the morning the buyers regained the control and completely reversed the price filling the gap. Note: When trade against a short term bias wait for a good support level or wait for the market to establish a consolidation balance. The price did not reach my support level but it established and well defined balance which offered a long setup. The intraday balance breakout flipped the short term bias. Things were looking well for the buyers, however, in the afternoon session the sellers regained control again. This is not easy to trade when a short term bias gets flipped several times. But it offers the opportunities. The challenge is to recognize a failure of the other side. The buyers managed to close at the balance edge, see the box, leaving the traders uncertain about what to expect. Notes for tomorrow: -The bullish case is not negated by any means. The sellers could continue to push lower but I expect the buyers to step in at every support level. - Both short and long setups should be considered - Failure to hold today's low opens a door to retest bottom of the balance, see the box. - Failure to push lower beyond today's low opens a door for upside move to retest today's high. At this point a lack of data points prevents to say what larger time frame pattern is unfolding. Whether we see a beginning of much anticipated correction or just a blip remains to be seen. The end of month is approaching. So far the average monthly range is not used. We either see a spike in volatility in the upcoming week or it would be a narrow range month. 02/21/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Primed for a Directional MoveThe market continue to balance in a narrow range for some days now. This is usually a sign for a bigger move to come. Today, the FOMC minutes brought some volatility without making any changes to the existing structure. Surprisingly, the VIX made a new low 13.99. NQ had a few nice swings to trade after the minutes announcement. They were short lived and required a precise execution. I usually take a few stabs with small stops. When a swing is caught and surfed it pays off and those small losses are history. Today, the market tried to breakout out of the recent range but failed to follow up. It was related to a low volume and pre-FOMC period which usually just a choppy time waiting for the news. I don't look at it as a failed breakout yet. 02/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, New Feb 2019 HighA new February high was set in pre-market. Kudos to buyers. The spike ran some stops but the price quickly retreated offering a short opportunity around 7070 level (top of the recent balance). This is a typical and a high probability setup to fade a move. When the price is grinding up shorting requires a precise timing and a lot of patience. But when the top is blown and the price is exhausted the shorts work very well and quickly. Eventually, the price came back to previous day range support and offered a quick long setup. After that the market was chopping in a small range. Some observation. The February POC (point of control) has shifted up to 7020 level. The 6970 level is a line in the sand. Loosing it would invite more selling. Today's spike, created by overcommitted buyers, is something to watch as well. It could be viewed as a false breakout and a selling tail of the recent balance (7070 top). If this hypothesis is confirmed we could see more selling. This is a larger timeframe pattern and it could take time to unfold. If not, then the buyers will continue their marching to upside targets: Dec 2018 Hi, Top of the projected balance (empty box). Watch 7043 level - a 3 day POC. A lot of energy built around that level. It usually serves as a launching point of a directional move. 02/15/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Bulls Have Retested Top of the BalanceA bullish day. But if you look at the price action there is no change to the market structure. Bulls made a run from the bottom of the balance to the top. Keeping the price above today's RTH low 6954 or 6940 (50% of the entire balance, gives the bull a chance to break out the 9-day balance and move higher to December 2018 high and 7230 which is the top of the projected extension (empty box on top). The balance helps the bulls to build energy and eventually slice through 200 daily MA watched by so many eyes. I would be cautions to short if the breakout happens. The market will switch from the balancing mode to development. Shorting will work only if a failure of the breakout is detected and obvious. If not, be a buyer and find the best possible price to get in. I have mention before that I don't use any indicators, however, on one of my charts I use 20 EMA with the only purpose to keep me honest. When it is pointed up and the price is above it the shorts have less chance to work and vise versa. The Algos do use it to re-enter or defend a pullback to it. I watched the price action on multiple timeframes and I can assure you that 20 EMA is respected. The benefit of this market is unidirectionality. Seems for the Algos it is much easier to go on in one direction until the price reaches some target and then it reverses. The art is to recognize that cycle and be the best buyer or seller without asking why it does what it does when the environment is not conducive for that direction. 02/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
3