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Ndx: Watch Hour Opening Firstly, I just want to congratulate everyone who made it to this year. I pray for success and positivity for y'all. Nasdaq100 has been on a roll for a while now... The indecision between the bulls and bears have made me to just wait at the sidelines. My edge hasn't fully played out so---I'm not about to force things. In this video, I explain all that should be done. Be sure to watch the whole clip, like, comment and follow me. I appreciate all your contributions to my work. Happy a great week! Lazyluchi.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by lazyluchi
2
Ndx Explained: Must Watch!Hey guys! I'm so sorry. Been extra busy should have updated y’all about the “ignored” bearish divergence. The pulls weren’t done yet. My apologies but, then again don’t trust me, don’t trust anyone but yourself. 🙏🏾 If something doesn’t feel right, it just isn’t. So, all I explained the steps you need to take in the video... Be sure to watch all of it. Listen, trading is risky and not easy. Be sure to not trust anyone---even me! Please leave a comment, like and follow-up if you enjoy my feeds or not. Haha! still follow me either way.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by lazyluchi
14
NQ1!, H&S Pattern in PlayBack test of the neckline and rejection has accelerated the downside move on Friday. Sell side in firm control so far. The H&S formation at the end of the upside move and its unfolding suggests further decline to come. There is some sign of dip buyers lurking at the 50% ret. They even managed to close above S1. This is a mechanical reaction of the Algos so far. Larger timeframe patterns are slow in nature. It takes time to unfold. This is the current context. What to expect short term. Potential retest of the low and breaching it. A quarterly R1, now support, may attract short covering, dip buyers on first test. A reaction could be enough to run again back to the broken neckline. The dream of the Xmas rally die hard. The options market defined the following range for the next week: 15120-16220. This is a big range. Trading in high volatility environment is not for everyone. But micro futures could be used instead. Good luck! 12/5/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, It's Easier to Commit Crime in the Dark :)The Holiday week had surprised the traders seeing a strong move downside on Black Friday. I was one of then. Having a habit to wake up and watch the EU opening sometimes is rewarding :) The official narrative is a concern over the virus mutation found in Africa. Don't you find that news convenient to initiate a move to downside? Look at the chart - you can't make this stuff up. A touch of the projected level R1, wave 5 completion. The move happened in the overnight session while the traders were digesting the turkey and sleeping well. If you were in this business for a long time you should know all the tricks under the market makers sleeves. I mentioned in my previous posts that News is used by one of the sides to achieve their goal. What to expect next? Simply watch for the inflection levels and the price reaction. There are a few decent levels below that may trigger a bounce. Also if the wave 5 is complete we may see a consolidation within wave 4. The market is coming into month end, some portfolio rebalancing may happen and that supports the idea of the consolidation going forward. Don't be surprised if a rally happens within that consolidation area supported by a narrative that the virus ain't that serious as it was thought and the existing vaccines are effective. The market maker has created some fear that would be enough for short squeezing. Ignore the news, watch the inflection levels. The market is here to enrich you not to get you. Good luck. 11/28/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, No sign of Backing OffIt's getting almost ridiculous to post the ideas when the market is trending up with no sign of backing off. Shallow pullbacks are bought. From technicals view the price does what is supposed to do. A breakout of the previous swing high and continuation. The next week is a Holiday week which is seasonally bullish. We may see smaller daily ranges. I personally planning to play both sides to maximize the potential. How do I short this market when a ranging bull is unstoppable? First timing: during the day session the repricing my occur at the RTH opening, EU sign off, and the late afternoon session. Second: a reaction at a weekly/monthly/quarterly inflection levels. The levels are watched by those timeframes Algos. Don't be discouraged when a slow drifting price seems doing nothing until it touches an important level. A big seller never shows its interest until the price reaches "the level". Traders become too dependable on platforms like BookMap and similar that capture order book. There is no doubt the platforms help to visualize potential areas of liquidity. However, one need to remember the fact that the "big players" priority numbers one is to hide their intend. Instead, they prefer to fake it. Big trading desks place their servers directly on exchanges and pay big fees for only one reason: to place and remove their orders from the queue before it gets executed . This is how they fake it. They know what is captured and shown by retail trading platforms and outsmart them. It is more reliable to watch inflection levels for a reaction and take a chance. You never know how a trade may unfold. Understanding the price action, price action patterns helps to navigate through the fakery. What should happen and what happens instead is the only question the retail trader need to ask. For example, if the price breaks the previous swing high or low it should accelerate but it does not. It's a warning. It means the opposite side is not covering their positions. The acceleration is both sides effort. This past week the market was inefficient again. Yet another gamma squeeze. The options market drives the flow. For the upcoming week the options market picked the following range: 16264 - 16912.5. It's a decent range considering the shorter week. Have a great Thanksgiving! Good luck! 11/21/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is Trapped in the Maze of Inflection LevelsI have highlighted a box where the market spent the last week. A concentration of inflection levels coming from different timeframes: weekly, monthly, quarterly. No wonder the price has a hard time to take off. The Friday's action ended right at the quarterly R2. Looking at the bigger picture: the Elliott wave aficionados may recognize a formation of the wave 4. The market may spend some time consolidating in that box before either make a run to complete the wave 5 or fails. I placed some directional arrows to watch. The last week action slightly breached the lower edge of the weekly expected move picked by the options market. Market behaved as expected. For the upcoming week the options market set the following range: 15890-16520. That supports an idea of a consolidation within the wave 4 with a potential to make a marginal new all time high. The volatility and the range remains elevated. That offers good setups for short term traders. The human traders have a big advantage - they can see the market holistically, they can learn to hear the context through the noise of the market action. Good luck. 11/14/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Holding Pattern Ahead of the Mega Tech EarningsIn my previously posted idea I outlined potential targets for the week: monthly and quarterly R1s. Both targets were tagged and the market entered a consolidation phase. The monthly and quarterly resistance are controlled by larger timeframe participants. So far a muted reaction, the price is consolidating, while those participants are waiting for the big tech earnings. I anticipate a resolution of the range in the upcoming week. The reaction may have a potential to hit the all time high to follow the mother of all products S&P. But it could be a completely opposite outcome. The price is at a strong resistance already and the sellers are patiently waiting to hit the button. The options market positioning is another tool for a trader that goes beyond the chart. This is how the market maker defines the risk. For the upcoming week the expected range: 15036 - 15605. A spike in volatility may lead the price to retest both edges. Violation of the range is bad for the market maker. Earnings noise could be very deceiving. To stay objective it is prudent to watch the pivot levels: weekly, monthly, quarterly. 10/23/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Right Shoulder is Being FormedThis past week the market practically retested the monthly S1 and monthly pivot. A big range offered plenty of opportunities for day traders. But for investors who like to use the "set and forget" strategy the time has not come. Conflicting news terrorized the machines on both sides. From a larger pattern development I personally envision the H&S pattern in progress. The down trend line from the ATH is intact. Bears don't feel the heat until the price starts approaching it. The earning season starts next week, this could only add more noise. However, I continue to emphasize to focus on hidden forces levels: weekly, monthly and quarterly. Last week, the market has retested 15k level. This is yearly R1. Sell side is active off that level in alignment with the current bearish sentiment. The 15k is critical for both sides. The technology is sensitive to 10y yield. Rising yield hurts the mega tech corporates looking to issue bonds and raise the cash for buy backs. For the upcoming week I anticipate to see another attempt from the buyers to retest 15k. 10/9/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Potential H&S is Being FormedMarket is in the distribution mode. The new month started and offered new levels for the machines. My personal view is a big H&S pattern formation in play. I projected potential boundaries of the right shoulder. A strong bounce on Friday may correct the lower edge if not taken out. But for now I go with a symmetrical shoulder. The previous month S1 and this month P levels are potential targets if the upside continues, however, it would be all within the right shoulder and won't change the bearish nature of the market especially if the downtrend trend line is not breached. Shorting this market requires a good understanding where the sell side shows its hand. The violent upside moves are common in the bear market. "The best buyers are the short sellers..." Buying in the bear market is risky. Traders need to watch inflection levels like hawks and look for the sell side failure. 10/2/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
3
Elliott Wave View: Nasdaq (NQ_F) 5 Swing Bearish Sequence FavorsShort Term view in Nasdaq (NQ_F) suggests the decline from Sept 6, 2021 peak is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from Sept 6 peak, wave W ended at 14807.5 as a zigzag structure. Wave ((a)) of W ended at 15307.75 and rally in wave ((b)) of W ended at 15532.50. The third leg wave ((c)) of W lower ended at 14807.50. Rally in wave X has also ended at 15402.27 as a zigzag structure. Up from wave W, wave ((a)) ended at 15163.25, pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 14930.50, and wave ((c)) of X ended at 15402.27. Index has turned lower within wave Y with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave X, wave (i) ended at 15084 and bounce in wave (ii) ended at 15230.75. Wave (iii) lower ended at 14740.75. Expect a rally in wave (iv) to follow and then another turn lower to finish wave (v) as well as wave ((a)). Afterwards, it should rally in wave ((b)) to correct cycle from September 27 peak before the decline resumes again. Near term, as far as pivot at 15402 high remains intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
NQ1!, Backtest of the Monthly PivotLast week the market broke the monthly pivot and rushed to retest the monthly S1. The idea was presented in the last post. Buy side has defended the S1 and pushed the price back to monthly pivot. The week started and ended at the monthly pivot. This is half-full-half-empty situation depending on one's view. Considering a short term exhaustion, I would expect a small consolidation before an attempt to breach the monthly pivot. The market is approaching the month end, the quarter end and several option expiration events next week. That could create a roller-coaster while participants do the position management. However, one need to stay focused and ignore the noise. The context is simple: the monthly pivot is accepted or rejected. A note to myself: when the market is at an inflection level there is a natural desire to predict where the price goes from here. A curious mind is searching for answers by looking at the macro economics, other assets correlation and etc. Such exercise is a waste of time. The objective way is to wait for the market to show its hand by reacting at the inflection levels . Save yourself from a headache to draw the projections. The inflection levels are known ahead of time and the Machines calculated them as well. 09/25/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
3
NQ1!, Monthly Pivot Retest, Inflection level to watchMarket has formed yet another consolidation area right above the monthly pivot. The last session breached the level for a short period of time. This is not enough market generated information to infer the next move. Wait and see approach. The monthly pivot is an important inflection level watched by big players. It is also a battle ground level for them. The price may oscillate there without making a directional move driving the short term traders nuts. If the monthly pivot is defended then we should expect a push back to the top of the recent balance (previous month R2). If not we may see a move to monthly S1. The week has the FOMC announcement. Regardless of the outcome a spike in the volatility is highly possible. 09/18/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, First Sign of DistributionA balance breakdown on Friday is a first sign of distribution. The monthly pivot reaction to watch. This is the area where we may see attempts of each side either continue downside or reverse back to retest the broken balance. Regardless of that plenty of good opportunities ahead! The daily breakdown bar has created a lot of talks among the traders and media. This is normal... The next red daily bar would create even more. The market maker is in the business to create the fear environment with the ultimate goal to buy back at discount. It works that way since the day one of the Wall Street. :) Even if the market enters a bear market violent rallies to upside are expected. Those are good opportunities for day traders. 09/12/2021
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital