NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe market finished the last week at an inflection level. The rising bottom, higher lows, is suggesting a potential breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 (15250 ish) level. That level may attract profit takers .
Many are puzzled by a relentless upside move. Even smaller advances but still the more important part is no selling.
My personal view is only technical. As a day trader with 1000s hours of screen time who watches the moves days in and days out on a tick level. Market is very technical and driven by machines(Algos) in auto-pilot mode most of the time. Their masters don't see a reason to override that behavior at the moment.
Potential scenarios for the upcoming week:
- A breakout and a retest of the monthly R1 and above
- A breakout and return back into the consolidation - a fake out. That may lead to a retest of monthly pivot and even monthly S1.
- Horizontal development - continued consolidation within the narrow range. This type of action would build even more energy for a strong move up or down.
08/15/2021
50 year anniversary of US dollar/gold divorce.
Nq_f
NQ1!, Summer Bullish DriftLast week the market drifted to a new ATH. It was kinda a sneaky move with low odds considering a lack of volume. One would expect a stronger breakout coming from a multi day consolidation area. Well, larger patterns take time to unfold. From the market structure perspective, which is the only objective way for me to trade, no changes in the sentiment. There is no noticeable commitment by either side though. A monthly R1(15250) is a potential target for the buy side. The monthly pivot is a potential target for the sell side.
The next week is a CPI report. It may attract participation.
08/08/2021
NQ1!, Pullback-Continuation to WatchThe upswing initiated back in May remains intact. The most recent shallow pullback (23.6%) is complete and the price broke the upper edge of the consolidation. At this point a continuation is expected aiming to reach 15500. The price may return to retest the breakout area to either confirm or invalidate the intent. This is the price-action 101. Too many traders expect a correction to start and this is what continues fueling the bulls. In my view, failure to continue and return back into the broken balance would be a consideration for a potential correction start.
The next week the mega-techs are reporting. I expect a spike in volatility.
07/25/2021
Nasdaq [7-14-21] - Updated Possible Correction Coming?.... Nasdaq rose a bit higher to the 15000 level and showed weakness. Nice looking RSI Divergence at the new ATH. This may possibly be the correction down starting today.
NASDAQ [US100] - Possible Correction at the ATH (BEARISH)Nasdaq has been running up very strong recently. We are getting a Double Top look at the new ATH. Possible correction this week.
NQ1!, The Price is JammedThe market is in the correction mode. The recent bear flag is intact. A new leg down is expected for the pattern to succeed.
Buyers need a motivation to create a strong moment to slice through 20 MA. The first test found responsive sellers.
The month end is approaching and the Memorial Holiday may lift the buyers spirit to make the move.
The sell side sees the 200 MA as a magnet. It is a clear objective.
The current location suggests a choppy 2-sided activity within the bear flag.
05/23/2021
QQQ most likely to test 332 and then decide the direction QQQ Weekly chart looks still bit weak. Friday's action saved it from meltdown. Thursday's bounce from long term trend line (more evident on NQ Futures) was big saver. Going forward, QQQ needs to close above 332 to push bears to sideline. If close below 322.80, would be big red flag as it may start weeks of downside action. Must hold trend line support in any case. Chart shows two possible paths it can take from here.
NASDAQ Elliott Wave View: Extending Higher In Wave ThreeShort term Elliott wave in NASDAQ suggests that the cycle from March 05, 2021 low is unfolding as an impulse sequence. Up from March 05 low, the rally to $13287.25 high ended wave (1). Down from there, the pullback in wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave A ended at $12681.75. Wave B bounce ended at $13172 high and wave C ended at $12609.42 low thus completed wave (2) pullback.
Above from there, the initial bounce in wave 1 unfolded as a diagonal where wave ((i)) ended at $12881 high. Wave ((ii)) ended at $12676.25 low, wave ((iii)) ended at $12988.50, wave ((iv)) ended at $12807.50 low and wave ((v)) ended at $13003 high. Then the pullback to $12776.50 low ended wave 2 & index has turned higher in a nest within wave 3 of (3) favoring more upside. Near-term, while dips remain above $12609.42 low expect index to extend higher in a nest looking for more upside towards $13689.46 -$14357.63 area higher before a pullback can take place. We don’t recommend selling the index and expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings for further upside.
NQ1!, Uptrend is intactThe market is in a steady uptrend since November. It remains quite resilient. A few attempts to break the channel in either direction have failed. The recent rejection at the upper edge of the channel sent the price to retest the lower edge. A potential scenario is to establish a consolidation area and move out of the channel in horizontal direction. That would confirm end of that particular trend and preparation to start a new one.
2/21/2021
16/12/2020 #NDX $NDX Bullish Yes But OverextendedAnother strong up yesterday. But on a bigger picture, price is just consolidating.
My bias zone at 12468.1-75.3. Possible bounce at this zone. 12508 and 12536.6 should possibly trade today (counter-trend). Looking for possible short to this level. Above R are 12624.7 and 12656.4 with 12723.4 possibly capping high of day.
Below 12468.1, lower levels are 12415.8-12422.9 (support zone) and 12350 should cap low of day. Below that 12285 is another level of support.
02/12/2020 #NDX Up move continues#NDX made ATH yesterday and came down. Difficult to call the tops. What I see we need to get higher and have a sharp rejection before we can have a change of trend, meaningful correction.
Price now 12441 within blue zone. If above, resistance are at 12545. 12631 should cap high of move, giving a low risk sell level.
Below 12431, look to sell to 12341-47 and 12221-31. Both are strong support zones and should offer a bounce. 12147 should cap low of day.
30/11/2020 #NDX Pullback Complete?Trend(Daily/Weekly/Monthly): Up/Up/Up
Late post today. Selling occured in Asian session but buying up now in European. Based on price action, price is still quite in an uptrend so tough to be bearish. We need another sudden sellling wave to come but momentum seemed to have slowed for now.
My blue bias zone is at 12177-87, which we are now still above it. H4 looks very bullish now if you want to short, look for better location.
Above R are 12249, 12304, 12349 and 12419 should cap high of day.
Below 12177, supports are at 12139, 12097 and 12065-12077, strong support zone which should cap low of day. 12009 will be lower support for reference.
Personally, I might go counter-trend short if 12249 fails, targeting the blue zone and watch for reaction for next move.
24/11/2020 #NDX Continue to be weakRotation continues with #NDX below 12060-80 my key level, while #RUT continue to shine. Not sure when is the next rotation back but probably shorting #NDX is the safer short to do now.
My blue bias zone at 11910-22 strong level.
Bullish above, with resistance at 11940, 12018, 12068, 12110. If price hits 12210-20, it should offer low risk sell evel. 12068 will be my level to watch for a gd short.
Below 11910, support are at 11890, 11854, 11816-24, 1178, 11726, 11686 and 11660. 11634 will offer low risk buy level.
IMO, I am quite neutral based on price action. This week is a short week, well supposed to be bullish but well anything can happen.