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NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointIn my previous post I shared the idea to watch the channel resolution. Today, the channel got broken during the morning day session. That led to a liquidation move to the next support. The market ended the session at the inflection point again. One can see how the price travels from one level to another. The chart shows clean break of the channel and the levels the price reacts. When day trading it is easy to get lost in the noise of smaller timeframes and numerous smaller moves and fake outs initiated by Algos in both directions. The best is to pick a larger timeframe with your analysis and watch patterns development. The entries could be confirmed on smaller timeframes. I personally prefer to watch Renko, Range, Reversal bars that reflect only price action helping to see the patterns . The unwarranted data gets filtered out. The market is at inflection point. This is a support until broken. Watch for a small balance shown on the chart. If it get broken to downside it would add odds for that breakdown to reach the next support. The RSI is showing a positive divergence and practically oversold. We may see some consolidation first. But if the support gives up - no indicator would help. The price action comes first. Stay nimble. The market offers opportunity every day. It does not matter why it moves up or down. Humans are suckers for narratives. They need to know why. In reality it does not matter. All the information is presented on the chart. Playing odds at inflection points is the only proven technique to trade the market. 9/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Watch the Channel Resolution A doji day on the market. Both short and long opportunities were available. I personally took advantage of the short only. An objective setup was offered by the market. The long was too aggressive with overbought condition flashing on multiple timeframes. The price is channeling up. Watch the edges of the channel. There is no doubt the buyers are getting too aggressive and complacent. It seems the new all time high is only dream they have. But I don’t want that bias to influence my trading decision. I only look at the price action from objective point of view. The market closed at an inflection point. Tomorrow is end of week and OPEX. Anything may happen. 9/19/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Post FOMC BounceFrom resistance to support and back. The story of the pre/post FOMC action. The market structure remains intact. Both short and long opportunities today. The pre-FOMC action was quite slow and required enough patience to sit through. In fact, the recent day ranges start to shrink suggesting lack of participation. Eventually an important support was tested and provided a very strong bounce indicating that the buyers mean business. Perhaps, something was said during the conference call but from technical chart perspective it was a decent support. As long as the buyers stay above the inflection point they have a chance to reach the next resistance level above which is a confluence with the broken trend line. As you can see the bias remains neutral and the price moves within the larger range from one inflection point to another. There are no changes that could provide a hint where this market is going. Stay nimble. 9/18/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Breakout Attempt in ProgressA slow choppy day with a bullish skew. The buyers held the position from the overnight session. The sellers were active at the resistance but one could notice no follow up to downside. They had many chances to go low but it did not happen. Eventually, the buyers broke to upside into the closing. This is a Pre-FOMC session and its outcome is not indicative per se. The stats based on 127 days is the following: 69% of the time the market opens higher than the previous day on the FOMC announcement day. It looks like this is going to be one of those days tomorrow. Nevertheless, the market structure and price action is the only thing I watch and the resistance is broken. That's the fact. If the buyers hold it then I expect to see a retest of the resistance above. If the price starts coming back into the previous range then it would be a warning sign. Post FOMC reaction could be tricky but after the dust settles the market should pick a direction to go. Stay nimble. 9/17/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Pre FOMC DriftTrend line break led to a liquidation move to the support. Responsive buyers had defended the 7800 level and pushed right back to resistance. We may see a retest of the trend line but as long as the price below it the sell side remains in control. All the main moves happened before the day session making it a low opportunity day. There is plenty of reward to go further down, however, the market is holding to see the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Until then the drift between inflection points is just a ping pong game for Algos. 9/16/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointThe market is testing a well defined trend line which is also a confluence with the horizontal support. This is an inflection point to watch. A decisive break would lead to a liquidation move to a previous support where buyers may be active on first test. The FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. We may see some drift back and forth while the participants wait for the meeting outcome. The negative divergences are intact. That adds odds to the downside move but the price may do the opposite. Watch for fake outs. Those usually the best to trade knowing that the other side is trapped. Stay nimble. Market provides long and short opportunities every day. 9/14/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Buyers Continue to Push Their LuckDriven by headlines the Algos continue to push price higher. This usually happens during the Globex hours where the liquidity is low. However, the day session traders can find plenty of opportunities. One only need to listen to the price action. Regardless of the short term bias the market structure provides objective levels to watch and execute trades. I haven't updated this chart much but one can see the areas identified sometime in the past continue to show reactions. The market has memory. Today's session offered long and short opportunities. But I personally was cautious about longs and executed a short when the market got exhausted into untested resistance. The chart shows the negative divergences which is alarming for longs. But one need to confirm entries with price action first. A rejection from the higher prices may lead to a retest of the trend line and potentially the stronger support below. If today's low holds we may see the buyers pushing higher targeting the all time high. Things can be interrupted by headlines again. Today is the first day of rollover to December contract. It adds to the overall choppiness. Stay nimble. 9/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Consolidated and Ready to MoveA consolidation session, which is in alignment with a typical market action after a strong move. You can see from the chart that the trend line is broken, however, the price is kept above the support. The market is ready for the next move up or down. It may happen on Sunday night or during Monday's day session. All the signs for the balance to breakout. My personal trading is based on patterns that develop in real-time. That keeps me from predicting where the market would go and provide an objective execution when a specific pattern is complete. The market could be super bullish but if I see a bearish pattern formed I would short it. If a pattern fails that opens a new opportunity to play the other side. In today's day session both short and long opportunities were available. 9/6/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Buyers in Control until They FailThe market remains in a trending mode after breaking the resistance level. The chart says it all. A notable trend line is intact until it is taken out. That would be a sign of entering a consolidation phase and potentially a short term reversal. I think that a retest of the all time high is on the horizon and before that happens the price will be trending up. The market remains overbought on multiple timeframes and stretched to upside constantly reignited by news feed. The China news never gets old for the Algos. Traders with a rational mind find that situation is unstable understanding that such moves are rarely sustainable. But for the Algos such consideration is not an issue. They follow the trend. As long as the price above moving averages they buy pullbacks regardless of the stock values. Today's day session was a continuation of the move that started in Asian session. Despite being overbought the buyers got aggressive at the bell ring chasing the price and pushing it higher. I personally expected to see a pull back to get on board so I could manage my risk. It did not happen. But the market hit my resistance level and the price action showed a sign of profit takers . That was a cue for me to short the market. At the trend line I flipped to longs knowing the Algos behavior during day sessions. Basically, the market still offered objective entries with controlled risk. Watch the price development and the trend lines. 7840 level break would be a warning sign for the buyers. A strong rejection would turn the table around for the Algos and they will be selling the rips. 9/5/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, From Support to Resistance The chart says it all. The support and resistance area continue to function as expected. Whatever a headline happened in the Globex session it helped the support to remain intact and the buyers were grinding up back to the resistance. The market closed at the resistance. This is an inflection point. Buyers need a momentum to break through. Could be a headline to help or to do the opposite and push it back. The market is in a limbo state and suitable for active traders. 9/4/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Intraday Weakness, Buyers Hold the FortThe sellers continue to retest the support and today had all the chances to break it. However, it did not happen during the day session. There is also a positive divergence that decreased the odds for them to succeed. This is a first day of the week and month and things can be different going forward. But for now watch the support and the balance outlined as a rectangle. Its resolution could set a short term bias and a trending move. 9/3/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Support is Intact Despite a gap down opening the price had tested a support and bounced back into Friday’s range. One doesn’t need to predict or correlate political games for future prices. Technical artifacts like support/resistance, trend lines are more than enough to find profitable entries. Trading is a game of odds. If you trade for a living you need to focus on execution at the locations that have higher odds to work in your direction. Today’s is half session and yet the market offered short and long opportunities. Tomorrow when the US traders are back watch the price action around today’s support where the buyers reversed the price. If the support remains intact then no damage to the current structure and the price would be on the way to retest resistance levels. 9/2/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Long Weekend Risk Off The Globex buyers managed to break the resistance but couldn’t sustain the high prices which attracted the sellers before the day session. That started to unfold as a false breakout pattern and led to a liquidation move back to previous low. Considering a long weekend ahead it was inline with the risk off idea. The month ended at the monthly point of control. If the buyers continue to defend today’s low they have a chance to turn around otherwise it could lead to a retest of 7600, 7550 and lower. The market continues to be neutral and confined within a large range offering short term trading opportunities for both sides. Have a great weekend. 8/30/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, From Here to Eternity :)The break of the balance led to a trending up move right to the next resistance level. Unfortunately, the heavy lifting had happened in the overnight session. The day session opened when the price was at the resistance. Later, the price came down to 38.2% retracement and offered an objective long for the buyers. The price remains hanging around the resistance level which is still intact. A premature break of that resistance may lead to a liquidation move back to the support. Ideally, the buyers would keep the price above today's low and consolidate it before making their next assault. 8/29/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Neutral Day, Directional Move is AnticipatedA bullish start of the day with all the signs for upside continuation. Negative divergence and lack of momentum were the only warnings for the long positions. The small balance on top of the broken resistance and its breakdown provided the hint that the buy side failed for now and offered a short opportunity. The responsive buyers showed up at a minor support and pushed back. Overall, both long and short opportunities were available. The market keeps a neutral bias. Continue to watch the balance resolution. Buyers remain in control above today's low. A decisive break of the current balance in either direction may lead to a trending move. The trapped side, either buyers or sellers , will be flipping their position and participate in that move. 8/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Ignore the Noise, Trade Price ActionIt is said that every chart looks great hindsight. The support and resistance levels on this chart were defined awhile ago. You can see how the price moves between those areas. Whatever the news coming via the wires the price respects the market structure and behaves accordingly. On Friday, the price broke the support decisively which led to a liquidation move to the next support. Oversold condition plus location found responsive buyers. The support is intact until broken, so we can expect the buyers to be active on Monday. 8/24/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Pullback is in Progress Not a surprising action in today’s session. A pullback was triggered in premarket and offered a short opportunity. Overbought conditions added the odds. A long opportunity was available as well in the morning session. Considering the recent bullish sentiment the buyers were constantly interrupting the correction process by attempting to turn the table. This is an action that shakes out the weak sellers - those who tried to short from aggressive locations. The broader market wasn’t that weak to support aggressive shorting. Eventually, the short term bearish bias prevailed in the afternoon session. The market is heading to retest the support area. But the aggressive buyers may be active ahead of it. Observe the action when it gets closer to the support for clues. 8/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, A Zero Sum GameA complete reversal of yesterday's parabolic move. This is a zero sum game: both bulls and bears make money. The market is for active traders who can read it. Use trend lines and support/resistance levels to understand where the action is and who gets a short term control. As I mentioned in my previous posts the Algos are trend following and session oriented machines. They don't change their direction once it is set. Only news events can impact that. As we can see from the chart a balance is formed right in the middle of the level. Watch its resolution. That would set a short term direction. From price action perspective it is supposed to go lower. If not then use that as a sign of reversal. 8/14/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital