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Nq_f

NQ1!, Recent Breakout Remains IntactFriday's action has confirmed the validity of the recent balance breakout. A news driven downside move retested the important support, the recent balance breakout area, and found responsive buyers. Another news driven move helped to move away from that area. Despite the noise created by news the market structure remains intact and watching the right timeframe helps a lot even the day traders. We are watching the new balance resolution. - A break of the support may lead to a liquidation move into the previous balance. That may start forming the right shoulder of the H&S pattern - A break of the resistance may lead to a trend up day to retest the new resistance level shown on the chart. Another potential scenario is for the market remains in that balance and slightly extend it upside and downside leaving both the bulls and bears in a greater uncertainty. The trader's task is to identify what scenario is unfolding. What should happen and what happened instead. The market never makes it easy for the traders but eventually it can't hide its footprints. 8/10/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is in the Breakout ModeA trend up day across the board. A break of the balance is what creates such market conditions. Traditional indicators only confuse the traders and trap them on the wrong side. The indicators help to see a potential reverse but they don't provide a signal. Only price action and rejections of certain levels are the truth tellers. The Algos are trend following Robo-traders. Usually, they don't turn around during day sessions. You can think about amount of money involved and why this is so difficult. If you study sharp reverses during day sessions you can see that they are news driven, when the short term sentiment is reversed. Without a power trigger such reversal is a low probability event. The market is at a resistance level. We may see a correction during the overnight session. Why it is possible: a different session, different agendas, short term overbought condition. However, this is not going to change the sentiment unless we see a strong rejection and break of the existing market structure. Stay nimble. 8/8/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Buyers Regained Short Term ControlAn oversold market found responsive buyers. The price has channeled the entire session. A news driven momentum change is a typical reaction seen in the world of Algos. Short and long entries are available for day traders. When volatility spikes it makes sense to wait for conservative locations to allow smaller risk. The market closed at a resistance level. There is also a diminishing momentum seen on the below indicators. There are several type of reactions happen at the inflection points: - A slice through like it means nothing - A pause - A reversal A pause usually ends up with continuation resuming the main move. I anticipate to see the continuation to the next resistance level. If not then the price may go to a support below where responsive buyers may be active again to channel it up. Large ranges offer great opportunities. Stay nimble. 08/06/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Potential Bounce is ComingOn Friday the market continued to drift down and eventually found a short term floor. Several opportunities on short and long side were available. The current structure and positive divergences are increasing the odds of a bounce. One need to be on a lookout to play it. I believe that both short and long opportunities would be available. I'm not in a business to predict whether we see more downside or a reversal to previous highs. The market provides new information every minute and shows its hand. The current short term conditions are in favor of the upside . A return to Friday's low would be a warning sign. However, if the positive divergences stay intact it would make a potential breakdown less sustainable. On Friday's the market formed an intraday balance and we need to watch its resolution. Stay nimble and consider risk/reward. 08/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, From +2% to -1%. Algos Work Both WaysAn unusual day on the market. A large range swings offered multiple opportunities. One does not need to catch all of them in order to be profitable. The overnight session was trending up and provided a hint that the buyers are active taking advantage of the oversold condition. The day session started from a strong momentum to upside slicing through multiple resistance levels. For market profile aficionados the move happened from overnight point of control to previous day point of control practically without stopping. This is not a normal action. Lack of liquidity and Algos trend following strategy create such conditions. The market become overbought pretty fast. Eventually, the market formed a balance at the top and lost it creating a short opportunity. Bad structure created from a parabolic move could not sustain a selling pressure and that led to a new low of the day. The market remains neutral. This is an inside day. Not much to infer where it would go next. I anticipate it would continue to consolidate within a large balance. In case of the breakdown and exploring new lows watch for positive divergence. It usually restrict the move downside and traps the shorts. Watch for small balances formed and their breakouts. That creates a short term bias and small trend that could grow. Gauging momentum is helpful. Stay nimble. 08/01/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Post FOMC Reaction. The bias is NeutralPost FOMC reaction led to a liquidation move to July’s opening 7780 where oversold and exhausted market offered a long opportunity for bulls. Once I noticed the reverse I even doubled my position to ride the wave up. Today’s action has not changed the neutral bias of the market. The next few days would be telling. The initial reaction sparked by Algos is not indicative of the sentiment change. What to expect next. - The market is on the path to retest today’s low. Be on alert because a double bottom may offer another long. Also watch for a positive divergence. - Due to volatility spike both short and long positions will be available. 07/31/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Balance Bottom Retest Offered Long OpportunityYesterday, I outlined that the price may retest the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and that won't change the bias. In the overnight session the sellers brought the price to that level offering the RTH buyers a long opportunity right from the getgo. A push back to the middle of the bands was a reasonable reaction. The remaining session was choppy awaiting for AAPL earnings. At this point the price is channeling up while drifting down in a larger channel. The channel breakout would set a short term direction. There is a potential volatility spike after 2 PM EST. Once the dust settles the market should return to its normal mode. 07/30/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Fat Trimming Action, Neutral BiasBreak of the channel in pre-market set the morning session bias. Feels like a dejavu. If you look left you see a similar pattern in play. The market is not conducive to a big move. This week is full of events and that what makes that action. The bias remains neutral. The price is in the middle of Bollinger Bands. If we see some selling pressure the lower band could be a reasonable target. From risk/reward perspective the downside is more rewarding, however, the market may decide differently. Follow the price action and no need to predict. 07/29/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Mixed Earnings, Market Remains NeutralYesterday's bullish sentiment was invalidated ahead of the mega tech earnings. Even in the pre-market the small channel seen on the chart got broken and that accelerated a downside move. The price was channeled down into the previous balance. Responsive buyers are active around July's point of control. Notice how well the Bollinger Bands worked. A strong buying has occurred after the bell. However, the price remains inside the previous balance and only retested its edge. It is not clear whether we deal with a false breakout or not. The market needs to provide more data. Mixed earnings results may lead to a choppy action before the dust settles especially in the middle of the bands. 07/25/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is in the Breakout ModeThe 7940, a monthly point of control, rejection right from the getgo set the tone for today's day session. A trending up price action and momentum broke the recent balance to upside. Market is in uncharted territory making new highs. This is happened ahead of the big techs earnings and GDP report later this week. What we need to see that this breakout sticks . Shorting is risky at this point unless the news driven moves start invalidating the breakout. Usually, the strong bullish sentiment would continue to stay for several days and aggressive buying would occur at every minor pullback. Stay nimble. 07/24/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Neutral-Bullish Bias Remains IntactRight off the day session opening the market offered a short opportunity. Failure to take out the over-night high attracted the sellers. Plus this is all about risk/reward. The upside was questionable. The smaller timeframes were flashing overbought conditions. As you can see from the chart the sellers brought the price to the dotted line. The oversold condition, inflection point and positive divergence seen on smaller timeframe offer a long opportunity. During the afternoon session a China related news created a momentum and pushed the pice even beyond anticipated target. The price moved almost to the balance top. That's why the bias is Neutral-Bullish. As I mentioned in the previous post the swings are within a large balance. If the buyers break the balance to upside the market will be trending to new highs. Stay nimble. 07/23/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Short term ReversalResponsive buyers were active the entire session. Bottom of the balance, oversold condition and a false breakdown created a buyers revenge trade. This is one of the potential scenarios I outlined in my previous post. The market is in the balanced state. Until the balance is resolved we can see swings back and forth that mean nothing. The challenge is to detect, and this is could be done on the lower timeframes, what side takes a turn and ride with it. We may see a completely opposite move tomorrow. 07/22/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Price is at important support level.Friday's day session offered a short opportunity right from the opening. A false breakout in pre-market sealed the deal for the sellers. The prices trended lower the whole day and offered a long opportunity off the 7900 level. One need to realize why Friday's are different: - the last day of trading before the weekend - options expiration. From the chart you can see that the price traveled from the top of the balance to the very bottom. It is exhausted, and the RSI is close to oversold. The downside continuation is possible, like anything when it comes to the market, but keep in mind that shorting at this point is riskier. It is better to see a bounce and then attempt to rip it. The level where the price is parked before the weekend is not only the bottom of the balance, this is also a month of July point of control. Also keep in mind that double bottom has high odds to attract the buyers in attempt to turn around. If you are a day trader you can take advantage of that level and attempt long. If your mind is set for shorting then it is better to asses the situation first. Possible scenarios: 1. A pause at the level, consolidation between 2 dotted lines above and below the main level which would serve as a pivot 2. A move lower with a sharp rejection suggesting a false breakdown. Bulls revenge comes after that. 3. A strong move down with high volume without a pause targeting to retest July's low and June's point of control We are in the midst of the earnings season and the mega techs will be reporting later this month. Stay nimble and objective. The price action is king. Your role is to see which scenario is unfolding and play the odds. 07/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Grind is Good if you are on the long sideIt's been awhile since my last update here. However, As a day trader of NQ I post many updates before a day session starts and during the RTH on Twitter. If you are interested you can follow me there: @ivs_futures. The futures are in the uptrend looking for a new top. The momentum is diminishing so the volume. A long time ago I put a projected area where the price is going. This is still intact. For swing traders who established long positions after a breakout this is a good situation. For others who are not on the train this is just painful. People keep asking: who is buying at all time highs? It does not matter! The less you know the better. Don't look for news outlets to provide any answers. They have no clues and make things up. This is a pure algorithmic electronic trading based on market structure and signals. The Algos are trend following herd. Until the trend is broken they will not turn around. For day traders the market offers short and long positions every single day. All you need is to watch the price action and signs of failure of either side to play the odds. Smaller timeframes are ideal to spot the failures. What to expect: - The rates cut is already priced in by the Market. You can look at the bonds as a confirmation. - Next week the earnings season starts. Large banks first. We may see some volatility pick up. - A few important economic reports will be release related to Housing - which is one of the pillars of US economy breath. - The diminishing momentum may lead to consolidation before next leg up or a strong rejection. 06/13/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Failed Breakdown has Played OutA failed breakdown that happened on Thursday was confirmed in Friday’s overnight session. Traders who read the price action as an unfolding story should be able to capitalize on that. The RTH buyers became aggressively active from the day session opening. The day ended with a strong bullish candle. However, the price is right at the resistance. Considering that the price traveled from one end of the balance to the other end traders should be cautious if a breakout happens without price resting. A successful breakout of the existing balance may lead to 8030 initial target. A false breakout would lead to a retest of the middle and bottom of the balance. The earnings and the FOMC are out of the way and the next week should bring some clarity. 05/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Buyers Remain in ControlA morning weakness with a complete reversal is a current pattern in play. As seen on the chart a strong daily candle closed above the trendline that was breached in the morning. Day traders who follow the market and don’t predict are benefiting from such price actions. Money made both ways. Tomorrow is FOMC announcement. If there is no surprise from the Feds, the buyers will continue to push higher fueled by Apple. However, the volume is expected to be light due to holiday in Europe. 04/30/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Risk OnAn interesting day. A strong liquidation move in the morning which followed by a V-reversal. Buyers are betting on higher prices - that's the only conclusion one can make from this price action. What could ruin this sentiment? Google and Apple will be reporting next week. They represent around 20% of the index. FOMC announcement. Any surprise could lead to a liquidation move. Next week will be several OPEX days. For now, there is no sign of the bulls slowing down. A decisive breakdown of the trend line would be a first sign of the sentiment change. 04/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Raging Bull Ahead of the EarningsA strong trend up day on the market. The previous all time high is a launching point to the upside. Regardless of why the buying occurred today, the price action shows a clear buyers domination: a wedge breakout, a solid bullish daily bar. The investors are betting on strong earnings of the mega techs that will start tomorrow. AMZN led the Nasdaq to upside today. Notice that the RSI was showing a clear negative divergence which was worked out by a solid upside day. Nevertheless, the overbought condition is there and it may stay there for awhile. The indicators only suggest specific conditions but the market context is what drives the prices up or down. In order to change today's bullishness the market needs to give back all today's gain. That would suggest a false breakout and may lead to the sentiment change. Until then the market can keep going up despite of the overbought condition. What to expect: Usually a trend day has a follow up. However, it may not be much. From the market action perspective the price is trying to establish a top of a new balance. Once it is found the price will be pulling back in a search of the bottom. Buying an aggressive pullback would be a proven strategy until it stops working. 04/23/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, ATH is Tested, Time to Take Some ProfitA very bullish overnight session tagged the ATH before the day session opening. An overbought condition at the ATH offered a short setup from the getgo. It’s all about the risk/reward. The upside was questionable and the downside could offer plenty of reward. It’s hard to go against the market but the mentality should be based on potential reward. In my previous post I indicated that a daily candle on April 15 suggests a failed breakdown of the wedge and the buyers would try to break the wedge to upside. This is a classic price action. It comes to no surprise today’s action. The buyers broke the wedge to upside. Notice how April 15 and April 17 daily candles are mirroring each other. Today’s upside move is a courtesy of mega tech stocks. It was a disconnect with broader market though. Small and mid caps were quite weak and finished in red. Tomorrow is the last session before the long weekend. 04/17/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Drifting, Drifting Like an Old Ship Out on the Sea...A balanced day overall. However, both sides had their opportunities. A false breakout of the overnight balance attracted the sellers for a liquidation move into 7600 support. The buyers stepped in and turned around back to today’s high. As seen on the chart the daily bar looks like a false breakdown of the wedge - a swift rejection. This suggests that the buyers are willing to go higher. The buyer’s next move would be an attempt to break the wedge to upside. This could happen in the overnight session where the volume is much lower and such moves have more chances. This environment remains to be for active traders. Rejections spotted on the small timeframes provide entries. 04/15/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Turtle Crawling Up within the WedgeA news triggered bullish sentiment in the Globex sustained during the day session. The daily chart reflects a well defined wedge where the price moves. In the meantime the negative divergence remains intact. On Friday the index did not performed well compare to the rest of the indices. The financials were moving up the S&P and Dow, and the big tech like AAPL and AMZN were showing relative weakness holding the NQ from exploding to upside. All that creates a mixed picture for long term investors. Next week is a short week. The all time high is quite close and I'm sure many expects the price to reach it. This is a potential resistance seen by everyone and some will consider to take profit. But how strong this pullback is going to be remains to be seen. The other scenario is that we see the bears step in before that level. Perhaps we see a decisive breakdown of the wedge. The bottom line is that the market is in a place where wait and see could be the best strategy for investors. Day traders can find the opportunities on both sides. In fact, the recent behavior of the market - bullish overnight -> price correction at the beginning of the day session -> crawling to upside from support for the rest of the day session. A friend of mine who runs an Algo really benefits from that. The Algo does not sleep and keeps on trading during night and day. For a day trader this seems to be a very good solution. Until the price remains above moving averages on different timeframes the Algos will buy pullbacks. It requires multiple days of the price to make lower lows in order to change that picture and turn the bullish sentiment first to neutral than neutral-bearish and than bearish. A strong downside day like March 22 could do the trick faster. The earning season just started. This is a moment of truth for the market. The relentless grind to upside was driven mostly by share buy backs and news from China. 04/13/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital