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Nq_f

NQ1!, Drifting to All New High Despite Screaming DivergenceAnother positive day for NQ. In the morning the bears had a chance to push harder but only managed to fill the gap. A shallow pullback was immediately bought for a retest of the Globex high. There is no doubt that the buyers are targeting to reach the previous all time high. The AAPL strength was pushing NQ to higher prices and helped the Dow not to loose ground. One can notice a negative divergence on a most popular indicator. This is not a sell signal though. It is only a warning that the trend is about to change. As I mentioned before until the love to FANG stocks turns to opposite the NQ is going to grind up despite all the divergences and overbought conditions. Buy pullback remains the current theme. This is applicable for active day trading. A long term investor should be cautious. Bears be patient...Nothing last forever and the market is cyclical. 04/08/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, All Time High Around the CornerToday's much anticipated NFP report did not make a firework. Nevertheless, the buyers were holding well the gains from the Globex session. The day session was quiet slow and less exciting but offered a long position from support. Gotta take what the market offers. So far the buyers are in firm control and hold the price above previous month high. The all time high is close and the buyers need a little push to get there. What to expect: - everyone sees the ATH price levels and perhaps wait for a pullback to get on board. However, the momentum is not there. The new buyers are not coming at this price levels. The old buyers are trying to squeeze a little bit more out of the aged bull. As long as the music is playing they continue to dance on the ceiling. - the bears see the ATH level too and wait for the exhaustion or top blow off. Perhaps a volume climax would do too. It is clear from the price action that the bulls need some motivation. If that is not coming soon the bears would step in and start the assault. From my observation of the Algos behavior: Algos like motion detectors - they react on the movement to fade it. They take a contra action first. If there is no movement they don't make money. Eventually, something would trigger them for everyone's benefit :) A note for the bears: If a strong downside move starts it may go on until the gap in the middle. That is a reasonable target. A note for the bulls: buy a pullback until it does not work. Fundamentals don't matter if the market does not follow them. 04/05/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Pre NFP Drift, Buyers Held the Breakout AreaA calm day on the market, both sides were active. Investors are waiting for the NFP report due tomorrow morning. The sellers got active after the buyers had retested the Globex high and failed to advance. The buyers held the breakout area and managed to recover all their loses. The buyers remain in firm control as long as yesterday's and today's lows are defended. The all time high is inches away and the buyers can almost touch it. It tempting for them to push harder. Not to mention what a big noise it would make on news channels. 04/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, FANG to Rescue AgainA small range today. NQ was the strongest among the indices. Buying in FANG stocks, especially AAPL kept the prices drifting higher to the top of the balance, which was identified as a short term target in the previous day post. The strength in AAPL helped to offset the weakness in Dow. Again, the buyers make baby steps approaching the larger timeframe resistance. Now, what the bears want to see: a strong push into the resistance and buyers failure. That would be ideal and open the door for closing the gap left in the middle of the balance area. Otherwise, shorting a dull market is a losing proposition. It could drift up and bore everyone to death. The bulls remains in firm control, however, my bias is neutral for the reason that the price is at resistance. Until it is broken the sellers are there. As mentioned in the previous post, the market may stay in this balance for awhile. The price has traveled from the bottom of the balance to the top too fast and exhausted. A pullback and further balancing would be good for the bulls and it would address any divergences. 04/02/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Marching to Retest the Top EdgeA gap up Globex action set the tone for the day session. When the market shows its hand It is best not to fight it. No matter what you think about the reasons. In the morning, I read an article where some UBS analyst had warned the investors before the opening not to trust China data, which was believed the reason for uplifting mood. It was definitely something to consider and be cautious before going long at higher prices. One of my expectations was to see if the gap gets filled. An island structure is a weak structure. However, the price action showed that the Algos are aggressive and buy pullbacks. That was enough to understand who is in control and tag along. From the market structure perspective nothing has changed. As seen on the chart the price is moving within the predefined balance targeting to retest the balance top. The top is a resistance until broken. Considering a strong rejection from that level I anticipate that sellers will be active on a first test. We may see a double top pattern in play. The market is not obligated to breakout and keep moving higher. The price can remain in this balance for many days similar to the balance below. 04/01/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, The Buyers Make Baby StepsThe buyers managed to capitalize on the previous day's gain. I anticipated the upside move considering the end of quarter and windows dressing exercise but it was painful to watch and hold a long position during the grind up. What to expect: - The buyers are at an inflection point (50%) of the downside swing. A chop is expected, however, if we see a grinding up action then they are winning. A grinding up action means the demand is there and the buyers absorb selling orders. - The sellers have a chance to step up for the downside continuation. We would need to see a strong rejection though. If they managed to erase Friday's gains that would be an encouraging sign for the bears. The share buyback is entering the blackout period. As soon as the FANG buying dries up the bears have a better chance. 03/30/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Inside Day, Be prepared for a Move TomorrowAn inside day that offered short and long opportunities. Usually, such days are a prelude for volatility spike and range expansion the following day. Be on a look out. I have adjusted the last box moving up the balance bottom higher. Here is the reason: it would more crucial for the buyers to hold that bottom . As you can see that bottom is a multi day bottom, and a break of the 20 EMA. If the buyers loose it it would be quite bearish. Neither Econo report made a difference on the price action today. The RTH session ended up with a doji daily candle with a slight bullish skew. If the buyers capitalize on today's gain then my preference is to see the expansion to upside. Keep in mind, tomorrow is end of the week, quarter, and month. Plus OPEX. All that only adds odds to volatility expansion. 03/28/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Market is Addressing the Weak StructureToday's action had a complete sense. In the previous post I mentioned a channel structure , part of the flag pattern, that may serve as a bull trap (see the chart). The sellers broke that channel and that accelerated the downside move. It was a decent short setup. Then the price hit daily 20 EMA which attracted long term buyers. A nice bounce that recovered 50% of the RTH session. The second setup was long. Could've been a bear rally? Sure, but nevertheless, bear rallies are quite violent and lucrative for day time trading. Today, the Apple saved the indices again. If not the Apple the downside move would've been much bigger. Out of the FAANG stocks only the AAPL was green all day long and had a decent gain. What to expect: 1. There is a possibility that the buyers will make a move to retest the broken channel where the sellers will have an opportunity to resume selling. 2. If the sellers push harder the anticipated downside target is bottom of the box. 3. There is a GDP report coming. That may interrupt the market action short term. When the dust settles we should see the continuation to the expected target. 4. It is possible that today's long term buyers turn around the price and start pushing higher back to the recent highs. If todays low is not breached then we may see a bottom of the range much sooner than expected. Watch for FAANG stocks to get a clue of what is coming. 03/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Sellers are Lurking in the DarkIn the Globex session the buyers were dominating. The price was grinding up all night. The momentum was picked up by the RTH buyers from the getgo but they failed. The sell side took a turn and dominated the entire RTH session. The sellers showed up at 61.8% of the downside swing. The buyers might have a chance if they continue a grinding up action. But they got exhausted moving too fast right into the resistance. Sometimes I think such moves are originated by the sellers themselves who want to sell at specific price level. They just need to push the price and suck in new buyers creating enough liquidity. From the market structure perspective no changes. As I mentioned in the previous post when the bias is neutral and the scene of crime is in middle of the projected area (the box) both sides make swings trying to run stops and create momentum trades. What to expect: 1. If the buyers manage to hold the last 2 days low they have a chance to retest today's high. In case of a strong upside momentum they may have a chance to retest the recent high. It is within a day reach base on the current volatility level. 2. Loosing the recent days low would open a door to retest the bottom of the balance. It is too early to say but from a price pattern perspective we may have a channel forming (shown on the chart) that may serve as a bull trap. 03/26/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, No strong Selling, Balanced SessionThere is no strong selling during the RTH session. In fact, it was a very balanced session offering trading opportunities for buyers and sellers. If today's low is not breached we may see an upside move into Friday's range. That would be a sign of buyers stepping in. My anticipation is for the price to balance within the last box. Only breaching it to downside or upside would provide a market direction. The short and intermediate biases remain neutral while the large is bullish. 03/25/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Strong Rejection Suggest the Short term TopA strong down move initiated from the Globex session found continuation in the RTH. Not often we can see the Globex and the RTH traders agendas in sync. A rejection from the large timeframe resistance suggests that the price discovery is done and the short term top is established. We may see a continuation to the downside to solidify the balance bottom. On the chart the last box bottom is an approximation based on the recent action. But the market will make the last stroke and show the exact place. The short term bias now is neutral. The large and intermediate biases remain bullish. During the RTH session the FOMC level 7376.25 found some buyers. It provided a tradeable reaction to upside. But eventually, the sellers overpowered and made a new low. The price hit a good support level which is a confluence with a VWAP originated from 7072.75 launching point(RTH). I added a Fib retracement on the recent upside swing. As you can see the price did not reach 38.2%. The buyers can show up at those levels and reverse targeting the balance top and even higher. With increased volatility and daily ranges that recovery is not hard to achieve for the buyers. In the following days we may see a battle between buyers and sellers, a blow exhange, and spike in volatility. This is typical when the bias shifts to neutral. Being in the middle of the projected balance the price will be going up and down meaninglessly. Momentum trades will dominate creating larger swings. It requires to read the market in real-time. Outside of the price action analysis: There is a beginning of the share buy back blackout period. That could slow down the buyers and only increase the odds for choppy action. Have a nice weekend 03/22/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Apple-mania Makes a New High The market made a significant move today driven by a panic buying of beloved FANG stocks and especially the Apple. The Globex session suggested a weak opening especially after yesterday's FOMC move that was completely faded. But the buying from getgo immediately set the tone. In such days it is not easy to get on board. The Algos were in a rush to buy, like there is no tomorrow, not giving a chance for a decent pullback. The love for FANG stocks is in the air again. Until that love turns into a hate the indices will be marching up. The price hit a marked on the chart resistance level. I did not expect to see it hit today. Will we see some notable pullback? During the RTH session the resistance has provided a shallow pullback. I even shorted it but managed to squeeze 10 handles only. It was not worth it to attempt considering such a strong bullish momentum. It was simply too risky. Tommorow is Friday and usually the buyers want to close that weekly candle in green. The bias across all the timeframes is bullish. Such bias does not die overnight. Pullbacks will find new buyers who missed the move. However, one need to consider a decent location or stay on the sideline until the dust settles. 03/21/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
9
NQ1!, Tech is a Safety Net for the MarketAfter the FOMC announcement the NQ exploded to upside tagging the next major resistance. After that the sellers managed to fade 50% of that move. This is a typical reaction when the price makes a new high. ES, YM and RTY had less success to sustain that move. The Feds decision impacted the financials and that started to drag the broader market down. The FANG stocks are favorite again a safety net for the market. That disconnect with broader market will create a tough environment to trade. The NQ will help the ES and YM to chop at higher prices offsetting the weakness in Finance sector. My anticipation to see a retest of today's high. The 7376.25 is important level to watch. Loosing it would put the FOMC reaction in question and trigger more selling. If today's high is a short term top then prepare for a lengthy balancing within the last box on the chart similar to the box below it. 03/20/2019 FOMC Day
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Pre FOMC Drift but a new high is taggedThe price trended up during the Globex session and the RTH opened right at the resistance: 7399 gap. Considering the stretched move it was a higher probability for the longs to cover (the overnight repository was 100% long) it was worth to attempt a short setup. That idea worked. The buyers were active at the support and after a lengthy chop they managed to break to upside to the next resistance during lunch time. A low volume pre FOMC day is Algos playground. When a news related to China deal hit the wires the Algos dumped all the daily gains. Some recovery happened at the support but eventually the price went down and closed the gap. I don’t expect much tomorrow until the FOMC announcement and especially the press conference. The CME probability tool shows 100% of no rate change. I guess all attention will be to what the Feds are planning to do. The bullish sentiment has not changed. But a pullback is much anticipated and needed in order to go higher. The relentless upside move left a lot of gaps behind and a weak market structure. A strong downside move has a potential to create a waterfall selling. 03/19/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Approaching a Gap and 7400 Inflection Point In the RTH, the buyers were active from getgo not giving a chance to enter long. I’m sure it is annoying for retail traders but this is the current state of the market. Seeing some divergences one need to be careful with longs from aggressive location. I was thinking about a short opportunity and was looking for a failure. The QQQE index that tracks Nasdaq equal weighted hit all time high and that impacted the futures and a short setup got materialized. In a very bullish environment shorts are required a precise timing and a proper target management. Otherwise better to skip them. The short created a strong momentum and in real-time a daily candle looked horrible for the bulls. But the sellers failed after a slight violation of the support. That presented a long opportunity. At this point we may see some continuation to upside, the 7400 resistance is a confluence of a round number and a gap left from October. The large cap techs continue to prop the price. Until the buy back stops we may see the price at higher prices and low volatility. If today’s low is taken out it could put some selling pressure but I expect the buyers to be active at every support. 03/18/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, New High, Hit ResistanceToday's quadruple witching day helped to advance the price across the board and break through recent resistances. Note: the price hit a strong resistance. It could be a short term top of the new balanced area. There is a possibility that we see a pullback to retest the new balance bottom. With the current level of bullishness the buyers will be active at every support on the way down. The NQ remains the strongest among the equity indices. A few of the big tech are in the breakout mode and push the NQ up. The NQ pushes up ES and YM. The Russell 2000, RTY, that represents a broader market, did not share the same enthusiasm. In fact, it started to crack down first and even made a new low of the day. What it means remain to be seen. Usually, the Russell is a leading indicator especially for S&P. But if the tech remains strong it could keep the S&P at the higher prices. My anticipation is to see some balancing in the upcoming sessions within the last box on the chart. The price is exhausted and need to rest and get more strength before going up. But this is the market and we may see more upside first. 03/15/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, inside day, small rangeThe market took time today to rest and digest its next move. Both sides were active today and the Algos played a ping pong game. That offered trading opportunities at the edges. In my view the short term bias switched to neutral today. The large and intermediate biases remain bullish. However, the daily candle close is bearish. It suggests a continuation to downside. This is what is expected. A new balance is being formed and the market is in the discovery to set the edges. Tomorrow is quadruple witching and we may see some erratic moves. Today’s action is not indicative of what to expect next. The buyers managed to defend 50% of yesterday’s range. Buying pullbacks is still a lower risk strategy. Until we see a strong rejection forcing to flip the bias that strategy is dominant. 03/14/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, The Breakout is confirmed, Approaching a Major ResistanceToday, the price continued to advance tagging 7300 level that was a magnet. The buyers are in firm control. The breakout of the mature balance area is a strong bullish bias . However, there is a potential strong resistance ahead that may cause a hurdle for the buyers. We may see profit take. A retest of the breakout area may offer a nice long opportunity. Usually, the timeframe alignment has a short shelf life. A few days of balancing and the bias starts to shift to neural. Even today, the buyers failure has been spotted on a smaller timeframe that created a nice short setup in the afternoon session. Whether it was triggered by a news or not does not matter. The Algos reversed the direction and trapped some weak hands that had to cover their positions. The price retraced half of the RTH session. Overall, it was a green day across the indices. The BA continued to drag the Dow down but a strong buying of heavy tech stocks helped the Dow. All indices are correlated. At this point, buying pullbacks strategy remains intact. Perhaps 7400 is a new magnet. However, short setups may present themselves any time. No need to predict. Any resistance is only a potential resistance. If the sellers gain a short term control on a smaller timeframe then a short setup could be attempted. The important thing is not to overstay. 03/13/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Remains Strongest Among the indicesThe price broke above the mature consolidation area today and closed with a bullish candle. Driven by heavy technology stocks the index performed better than the rest of the indices. However, the breakout was not strong. The reason for that is the exhausted move from the bottom of the consolidation. The price did not have enough time to rest. I consider this breakout as continuation of yesterdays move with slowing momentum. Feels like the train is slowing down :) The price action today was very mechanical. The Algos were buying at predefined levels that was easy to predict and enter long. It did not require to read the market. The participation was low though. I anticipate the price to stay within a new area that was developed during the Globex and RTH sessions today. A break below today's low would be a first sign of weakness but consider the following: there is a timeframe alignment bias wise, long term and intermediate biases are bullish. A break to upside would be in alignment with the that bias. The 7300 target is a magnet. 03/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, False Breakdown Sparked a RallyIn my previous idea I said that the Friday's price action suggested a potential false breakdown out of the multi-day consolidation area. Today, it was confirmed by a trend up day across the entire consolidation area. This is what is expected. When it comes to a false breakout or breakdown of a mature balance there is 80% chance to fill that balance from edge to edge. It works on any timeframe. Honestly, I did not expect that to happen in one day. My expectation was 2 days based on the recent average daily range. But the aggressive buyers pushed the price all the way up. At this point, the price is exhausted and if some continuation happens the upside could be limited. My anticipation of inside day tomorrow where some profit will be taken and the price will spend time fixing the market structure. Long term view: the mature balance created at the edge of the important resistance may serve a launching point to upside targeting all time hight . This is a high odds scenario based on the observed price action. The low odds scenario is the downside move that could create a serious drop. There is a lot of trapped buyers in that mature balance. My bias remains neutral. From the market structure perspective no changes. 03/11/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Short Covering Rally or False Breakdown?The day ended with a bullish doji candle leaving everyone guessing what to expect next week. In the last analysis I expressed an idea that if the sellers push lower without spending much time balancing around lower edge we may see a false breakdown. The price traveled from the top of the consolidation area to the bottom and was exhausted already. Well, they did push lower. The NFP report released before the RTH opening pushed the price beyond the consolidation area. The price reached my support level a few minutes after the RTH opening which offered an objective long setup. I considered a better reward for longs. Traders who shorted the breakdown and the RTH opening got trapped during the session and had to cover fueling the upside move. No change from the existing structure perspective though. The sellers made an attempt to breakdown. Whether they succeed or not in the upcoming sessions remains to be see. My bias remains neutral. 03/08/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Retest of the Bottom. Pressure on BullToday, the sellers managed to broke the trend line (shown on the chart) and accelerated a move to the bottom of the accumulation area bottom (upper box). Whether we see a distribution or continued accumulation remains to be see. At this point I anticipate a bounce since the price stopped at the strong support. If the sellers try to push lower through that support there is a good change of a false breakdown. We should see a bounce and consolidation first then a potential move lower for a distribution scenario. Tomorrow is options expiration and NFP report, March contract rollover. That could lead to a choppy session and potentially inside day. 03/07/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital