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Sui Ecosystem Tokens: Analysis of DEEP and NS Pattern Similariti Today, I conducted a detailed technical analysis of two tokens from the Sui ecosystem — DEEP and NS. Despite their different price ranges, both assets demonstrate similar price movement patterns. Here are the key points: 1 Growth Phase — Both tokens showed a strong upward surge, forming an initial bullish trend (green zone). 2 Correction — After the sharp growth, a correction followed, represented by a downward movement (red zone). 3 Support Level — Both tokens reached a strong support zone (blue area), where initial recovery signals appeared. 4 Potential Upward Surge — Both tokens formed a similar potential "growth wave" (blue zone), promising the continuation of an upward trend. In DEEP, we observed a +106.99% increase, while NS shows a potential rise of up to +90.68%. This is a great example of similar patterns that can help predict future price movements. Why is this important? The similarity in token behavior helps in making more accurate market predictions. If NS follows DEEP's pattern, it opens exciting opportunities for traders. What do you think of this analysis? Share your thoughts in the comments!
MEXC:NSUSDTLong
by Du_Trade
SPX / ES - Get Ready for a Head Fake, and an OpportunityIn my recent calls, I have made predictions for Apple to set new all time highs, Tesla to print at least $250 again, and Nasdaq to 14,000. However, whenever price action fails to follow suit with expectations, one must revise, revise, and revise again the situation at hand. With this week's price action topping on Tuesday after what should have been a significant bull catalyst in the lower CPI print, causing SPX and Nasdaq to go as wild as the Dow has, it can only be ascertained that the makers not only do not want to go higher, but are likely to head lower, and they'll be in a hurry. I have been simultaneously conflicted by the fact that I do expect SPX and Nasdaq to run to their COVID lows with the fact that there isn't any news primed until December and timing is awkward with the next FOMC being a month away and US Thanksgiving being late next week. There's a significant fractal from June daily bars that's very similar to where we're at now, where we ultimately made the Low of the Year, which held until September, and then October. The problem is that everyone is expecting a dump, because although there really isn't any fear and nobody is actually positioned bearishly, the sentiment is still bearish. I said on Twitter the other day after hearing that Michael J. Burry from Big Short 2008 GFC fame said "You have no idea how short I am," that these types of guys are allowed to tell you what is going to happen, but not when it is going to happen or where it is going to happen. They're allowed to speak the truth insofar as it makes retail offside. If they were to really reveal the truth that they know, they would disrupt the markets and their access to credit facilities and swap lines would be revoked. What I mean by the above is that for retail, you're going to be baited into going hard on puts and shorts, but this isn't yet the moment of impact everyone who believes interest rates and recessions mean SPX 2,000 straight line no bounce have been waiting for. Meanwhile, although the VIX isn't showing much in the way of signs of life, the put to call ratio is as high as it's been since 2008 quietly starting around Wednesday. The US Dollar Index has also started to show poppyness after running a key low. Signals are great, but price action has to confirm, and as of now, it indicates that the indexes and stocks do not want to trade higher. Thus, what I believe and am expecting to happen is that indeed we do dump, and violently, and fast. It is imminent. Perhaps as early as Sunday futures open. It will be scary. However, what I think is that the dump will really be a bear trap. It won't go as low and it won't stay as dipped as everyone is expecting. When it starts to bounce, it will bounce a lot, and hard, and catch people off guard. This time, there won't be a retrace. Thus, what I am anticipating is for the SPX to print at least a low 3,600s tape. More likely, I believe SPX will actually trade back toward 3,500, but not take the low out. What I want to tell everyone is this: You need to stop listening to the Stocktwits and the Twitter and the Discord and the WhatsApp feeds. You need to unfollow these guys that are filling your head with notions about interest rates and yield curves. The more you fill yourself with those concepts, the more you will be manipulated into trapping yourself offside and the more you will be unable to take advantage of the real move. The more you will blow your accounts. The reason is, there is a logic behind why bear markets rally so hard. A bearish market rallies, simply put, because smart money doesn't sell low like you do. They sell high. So they sell high, buy back low, sell high, buy back low, and the market has to be engineered around this, or they won't participate, because losing money means death. The next bear market rally is going to be like 40%, and it's going to be rather impressive. Bears will be so angry, not realizing that the rally's climax is the "Big Short" they've long been awaiting. Allow me to issue my own "Cassandra": Be warned, for when all the stocks and the indexes are high again, the day the Chinese Communist Party will be thrown out from this world is during Beijing time, not New York time. It will happen in the middle of the North American's night. It will catch very literally almost everyone off guard. The limit down when the NYSE opens that day will be 15% on indexes and it won't be the bottom, it won't bounce. That day is very close. Nobody expected the USSR to fall, and yet Gorbachev and friends threw it away anyways. China's traditional 5,000 year dynasty culture is mankind's only hope for a future, and it will absolutely be not only preserved, but resurrected.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by LordWrymouth
14
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and GloomSomething I am aware of is that traders get trapped primarily because they get laser focused on one specific side of the market and one specific price target. This happens either because of greed in wanting to get it allllllll from a winning position or simply being caught underwater. Amazon, a formerly $1+ trillion company by market cap, lost 30% of its value in the course of literally two weeks, but yet, still does not count as "cheap." Weekly At $91, this thing is still pushing a $982 billion market cap, and this is a company that more or less exists as a cesspool of fake Chinese product reviews and as a western import hub for junk effectively siphoned from the Chinese Communist Party's Aliexpress. Looking at the monthly, after two years of post-Coronavirus Disease 2019 distribution, nobody in their right minds should be bullish on Amazon. It's no longer a buy, it's a sell, and has been all year. It's not that Amazon is a bad company, it's that the market structure clearly seeks to drain all that coiled tension from two years of selling inside a (relatively) narrow range. But that being said, you can also tell from the monthly that there's huge ranges playing out while it makes its way downwards. The monthly also shows that Amazon is trading at a deep discount level of its total COVID-era structure. While it could run from here and take out the lows with great ease, or run towards them another 10% and double bottom, I feel it isn't likely to play out so easily for bears, who already just had a big meal, and should not be overly greedy. When we look at the Daily, it gives us a lot more perspective and some things to be realistic about. Namely, the September gap is above equilibrium and counts as a breakaway. Amazon will trade back there one day, but only after the market operator has achieved its downside objective, for it already played with equilibrium twice and had no interest in filling the gap. But Amazon lost almost $20 on its earnings call to end October, and then bounced hard before proceeding to lose another $10 in short order. The notions of "oversold" and "overbought" shouldn't be measured in terms of indicators, for those are just math-based lagging lines. Overbought and oversold should be measured based on price action, for in reality, when the trading desk at JP Morgan and Citadel sit down in the morning, they're looking at dollar values, just like you are. "How much do I have to spend? How much can I make? How much do I stand to lose?" But unlike you, they aren't looking at trendline astrology or squiggle lines and Elliot wave superstitions, because when it comes to taking risk and calculating for potential reward, if you lose, you can't really tell your shareholders things like "But meh Williams %R hit 42 while the wave count was a 16(a)(c)42. I don't know what went wrong!" Based on today's overall wild price action it seems that indexes are poised to stop trying to make lows and rally. This is congruent with the timing we face, with the US midterms being Tuesday of next week and CPI printing on Thursday. During today's manipulation, Amazon also made three consecutive hourly lows before finally pivoting. This should indicate the operators will seek short term upside. What's good in this trade is a most conservative upside target is 10%, slightly over $100. Yet, if Nasdaq rips even 60 or 70% as hard as the Dow just did, upside targets in the $107 range are likely to be fulfilled. If Nasdaq really goes crazy bull trap to sucker in retail and gamma squeeze, then $120 is on the table. These are big opportunities one can take advantage of, but it's hard to take advantage of them if one has their eyes on the $81.30 COVID low because Fintwitt, your signal service Discord, some guy with a Pepe avatar who claims he worked for Goldman Sachs in 1997, etc., are screaming about recession and the Federal Reserve not pivoting.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by LordWrymouth
15
SPX500 / ES - The Faint of Heart Shall Have Fainting HeartsThe truth is that a difficult market will forge a trader (assuming you stay solvent, lol), whereas markets like the 2020-2021 bull run, which everyone so desires to reappear, do not. There is nothing to achieve by buying calls at literally any point, whether high or low, and watching it immediately turn green and run for days. Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional. This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc. The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet. But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema. The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities. The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen. To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October: And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do. However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400. Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound. Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump. Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun. After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something. But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range? What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000. I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real. The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster. I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from. But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023. If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert. If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something. The problems that lie ahead are that dire. What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally. If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early. Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short. One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule. Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
1
SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding ItBefore we begin, to substantiate what I'm about to say, I would suggest everyone blow 8 minutes watching this video . Professional bull riders attempted to ride Asteroid 76 times. Asteroid bucked off and stomped professional bull riders 71 times. You should know professional bull riders aren't some Cletus-style hicks. These are professional athletes in very, very good shape, who grew up riding steers as children, often graduated to horses, and then took on the extremely fine and extremely challenging Cosmic manifestation that is encompassed in the word "ox," of which a bull can be seen as a derivative of. They're like that and they still got wrecked. Wall Street, is, likewise, like an Ox, for they and the Federal Reserve are the guardians of the world's financial heart, whether you like it or not. No matter how you hear about recession and inflation and rate hikes this and that on TradingView and Twitter and Discord and the news, the reality is, these markets are still bull markets. I will repeat: You. Are. Still. In. A. Bull. Market. This is something I had to change my own mind on recently, and sobering it was. Clarity it doth provided. And no matter how insane it may sound with all those fundamental factors kicking around telling you that the markets should crash, they aren't going to crash. In a time not-too-far-ahead you're going to see a _major_ and violent bull run that may see SPX 5,000 for real, and it may even happen before 2022 concludes. However, before that happens, you're going to be given a very difficult situation to buy the dip in, and that situation is upon us. The reality is that last week's colossal CPI dump and the resulting days of downturn really did amount to a shift in market sentiment from bullish to bearish. However, you should also note that last week formed an outside bar, with ES futures closing on a ~50 point rally above 3,900. The reality of an outside bar is that although you're not one bit likely to see it turn around and make a new high the next week, you're also not very likely to see it continue on downwards sweeping new lows so easily. Looking at the Daily provides some lucidity. Equilibrium of last week's outside bar is a very fun 4014 points. What you should expect, now that SPX swept previous lows, is in all due fairness, a change in momentum and direction that serves the purpose of enticing longs to enter way, way too early, while also killing short sellers who are way, way too early. The truth is that while no crash is ahead, you'll feel like we had a crash because we're going to 3,400~ first, and that kind of a dump is probably going to stop being this choppy up and down fearless landside down stuff and will instead come fast and strong... when it happens. But before we get there, you are very likely to see significant upside manipulation. What's really hard about getting setup short for this move downwards is that the market makers have left a 200 point range that can be played with on and during FOMC day and when Big Jerome Powell speaks. FOMC rate hike = Wednesday J Powell speech = Friday And these really are the only two news events in the cards. Also keep in mind that counting FOMC day, there's still eight days left in the month to manipulate the markets A very difficult scenario to trade would be to see a bullish Monday and Tuesday followed by an FOMC rate hike pump. Even if the Fed hikes 100 bps, it can be used to pump the market. The logic you will hear in the news will be, "Well, didn't you anticipate this? Markets pumped because finally the Federal Reserve is taking care of inflation, so all this inflationary pain will be over sooner than we expected." And then perhaps when Powell speaks on Friday he will just say hawkish things, meaning that there's no intention to pivot/dove at the next FOMC, which is not until November, and so the markets will dump. The logic then, will be that "Rates are thus projected to reach 5.5% before the end of the year!!" Once the markets start dumping, you will probably see 2-3 weeks of very annoying and miserable downside, with little bouncing. This will be very punishing to dip buyers. You buy the dip because Apple looks really cheap and it keeps on running. "It's been a week and it's not bouncing. It has to bounce, right?" It will bounce when you get scared out or liquidated and see a 45 VIX print, and not before. The logic in all this is that although we have a significant shift in the tone of the markets, these markets are still markets that have liked to go wild bucking around and taking out both bears and bulls. They're about to become markets, however, that takes out just bulls, but only for a little while. The caveat to all this is the logic that "The trend is your friend... until the end." Once the big trend shifts is when a person tends to lose a lot of money. They buy the dip expecting to play the bounce only to get freight trained as it drives downwards. Or they short a pop expecting to catch a new target low, only to get ruined by a gap up that takes 18 months to correct. Well, you want to get rich, right? The truth is that you cannot change your life. You have what you have in your life because of certain causes. Have you ever thought about why you were born in the place and family and gender you are, and not another? Could something like this and all your social and work connections truly be random? A lot of people get ruined because they are trying to change their lives from what they have to what they think they want, what they think will give them the happiness they desire, what they think will satisfy their egotism. But you should know that this is a business that is established in society under Heavenly Mandate and if you are to succeed at it, it is because your life already has that predestined fortune. If you can take a proper attitude towards trading and take a more long term approach, you may be able to reap success. If you can't, then you'll always fail, because you'll always be gambling from a heart of jealousy. This is a time where it's very, very, very lucrative to position some trades on a two or a three month time frame. It's also a time that it's very, very, very important to wait to see a proper bottoming price location or a proper bottoming pattern before you go long. Lest you otherwise be 400 points and 15 days too early and then have to wait 40 days to ultimately make virtually nothing. Also, when it comes to a bull thesis, you should be weary about the situation in mainland China. The Chinese Communist Party will soon fall, and it will happen in the middle of the night North American time and US equities will gap down worse than FedEx did on Friday. Before that happens, though, you can expect prices to have risen to high places, because the Lords of Wall Street know exactly what is happening, and when, usually because they have their hands in the pile.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
3
Nasdaq NQ - Bad News for Bears. But First, Bad News for BullsAfter observing recent price action in addition to the sentiment in trading communities and Twitter, I've been doing some hard thinking about the notion that we are now in a bear market. All the fundamentals say that there's such and such skyrocketing debt, food crisis, inflation, energy crisis, Europe crisis, currency crisis. And all of these fundamentals are true. And yet, most fundamentally, although the U.S. equities markets have retraced heavily since 2022 began, they are not in a bear market. Just look at Nasdaq on the monthly. This is not a bear market. Frankly, I went looking for an example of a bear market in both Bitcoin and WTI Crude And found that both of their monstrous retraces were simply natural results of their having gone parabolic in the first place. Never forget that it's a Law of the Cosmos that for every loss there is a gain, for each positive, there is a negative, and that when something reaches an extreme, it will reverse. If you don't believe it, just pick something up and throw it in the air and watch what happens. Nothing can stop the result of the action. The way traders treat a "bear market" is about as absurd as if humans were to treat the rising of the sun in the morning as if it were the VERY BEST THING THAT COULD EVER HAPPEN and the night like the END OF THE WORLD. Thousands of years ago when man was still primal and had no idea what was going on, perhaps they felt exactly that way. What we mean by a "bear market" really refers to a phase of time where traders are no longer able to mash buy on AAPL or TSLA at the top and make 3% per day without it even dipping. What we mean by a "bear market" is a phase in time where highs get melted down and new lows keep getting made, and that's really where we are and have been all year. And that's why nobody is happy. Seek and destroy markets are hard to trade. What I am getting at with all these words, is we are still in a bull market. We are just in the night time of the bull market. Several fundamental conditions have not been met for this world's economic heart to have entered either a recession or depression. The Fed has quietly been printing money and propping up the banks since 2019 . These Central Bank Central Government bailouts are now the norm, rather than the exception, because humanity is in trouble. And so, what I would like to say, is that we are very, very close to the point where being short is going to cost you your portfolio. We're not going to make new monthly lows. August wasn't the top. But we're also at a phase where going long is likewise going to cost you your portfolio. In my most recent SPX ES call, we were able to anticipate both the areas the MMs would retrace to and the upside areas they would take out, and both of those have been achieved: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws However, as the price action unfolded in the week and I thought more and more about what was going on, I felt unsettled with the notion that JPowell's speaking was going to lead to a dump, and so I made a revised call on Nasdaq NQ Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 Points The problem I still feel in my guts about the above call is that although it's going up, and fast, and at the time I predicted, it's unsettlingly curious that the Lords of Wall Street were benevolent enough to let all the longs have such an easy time of it and not sweep out that July 18 pivot, despite coming so close, before we go on a 2,000+ point winning streak. That's just, not how they do things, man. Frankly the time we spent under 12,200 was also just simply too brief and too easy. And so, all of this leads me to today's call. Previously in August, I had anticipated that a 72 VIX is set to print, and I would imagine this would come when the June lows are taken out. VIX - 9x8 = 72 And while I thoroughly believe this is still in the cards, I now believe that we don't see this until late in the year or into 2023. Fundamentally, I believe the issue is that the Democratic Socialists of America Party require the stock markets to be happy ahead of and during the U.S. October Midterm Elections, because much of their voting base is teachers, unions, and old people, all of which have heavy investments in funds and pension plans that are neck deep long on everything establishment. And yet I also believe that we won't go up so easily, since fear is still yet to come. Looking at the weekly, I believe we have two critical inflection points. I believe that 15,500 is in the cards before 2022 is out, but we have unfinished business lower before that happens. It's like dancing, two steps forward, one step back. One step forward, two steps back. Never just forward, forward, forward, or back, back, back. Trendlines are about as scientific as looking up your horoscope on Yahoo, but people still do it, believe in it, and follow it, and so it is something that is simply going to be attacked. If you do it right, you can take advantage of the opportunities presented by not being the first mouse to go for the cheese. Price action on the daily shows that Friday's moon candle not only created a gap, but already took out all September highs and has already rebalanced a big August gap. What lies below, however, is our very solid and very crucial trendline, which also happens to correspond with a lot of wicks from June and July. Wicks are notable because they represent places of low volume trading. What I believe lies ahead is a case where we will quickly and violently descend towards the 11,650 range, test the trend line, break the trendline, and fill in all that volume in the wicks. To me, one of the biggest tells is that AAPL, which leads the Nasdaq, was actually _very_ bearish last week. Even on Friday, it was bearish. To me, this says it wants to continue to make new lows, which means everything else is going to make new lows. I believe that during September FOMC, the Fed will do something like a 50 bps hike instead of a 75 bps hike and/or revise their inflation target to 3% from 2%, and that will cause the markets to moon back towards 15,000. The Bank of Japan, which meets more or less the same day, will maintain Yield Curve Control on the 10Y Bond at 0.25% despite the annihilation of the Yen, which means the old money parade into U.S. equities will continue, and we will get a September FOMC melt up, not a melt down. Note that there is not another FOMC until November. We're not in a bear market. The June low was the low until at least the end of the year. After you see Apple post $198, let's see what happens in terms of VIX 72 and a bear market. No matter how bad things get, social stability is the Communist Party's number one priority. Ultimately, they need the United States to be fat and complacent and not revolt in order to maintain their power. They need to maintain their power to install Central Bank Digital Currencies, digital ID, and social credit across the globe. To do that, they need the U.S. equities market to keep delivering "the happy," to keep serving as a distraction, and to continue to give you something to gamble away your life savings on, so that your eyes are focused on everything besides what is important to your fundamental life. Marxist-Leninist rogues rule the world at present, but only for a little while longer. In the interim, if you trade against them, they will hurt you. So have some fun going long on TSLA and AAPL for now. Just make sure you take profits instead of thinking you caught the new paradigm. It will still take a few more months for Justice and Conscience to return to the surface of this world. In the meantime, WTI and Natural Gas are going to dump. WTI Crude / CL - An Intervention: Saving Blind Bulls & Natural Gas / NG - What, Truly, Is a Bull? And when all is said and done, where you want to have your money is in defense contractors and energy companies. Boeing BA - A Dark Harbour Good luck, and stay safe. The future is bright. But you have to fjord the river Jiang first.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
12
Nasdaq NQ - 8 Days & 1,700 PointsThe more I observe price action and the more I analyze charts, the more I feel that although the markets are absolutely primed for a major and inevitable correction towards the pre-COVID highs, which for Nasdaq and SPX are far under the June lows, we're on the cusp of a preceding bear lynching. In my recent SPX call, I had forecasted a trip to the 3,8xx range early on in this Labor Day week in anticipation of everyone's favorite global market manipulator Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaking on Thursday with FOMC and an inevitable rate hike looming on the 21st: SPX / ES - Bull Whips and Bear Saws What I had thought likely to happen was an early dump, followed by a pump into his speech, and then the beginning of our correction cycle. And yet after observing the price action of Bitcoin and Ethereum over the weekend (significant since they tend to lead or match with the SPX since they have a CME futures market) in addition to Monday's price action when NYSE/TSX were closed for the weekend and today's strangely simple dump-into-accumulation pattern, I have since been forced to revised my theory. I now believe that Big Jerome's talk on Thursday, September 8 is actually going to be used to propel the markets back to areas close to August highs. Taking a look at my calendar, if this theory is true and Jerome was to pump it, you'd have eight trading days to do so until FOMC. Afterwards, counting FOMC, there's still eight days left in the month to crash this plane straight into the side of the mountain all the way below July's lows as well. What's the fundamental thesis for my theory? It's simple. One is that they've been selling a lot of VIX-enhanced puts for the last week and a half and a bull run will drop VIX back to like 19 and all those puts that they sold with high implied vol for monthly OpEx will expire worthless. The second is that with VIX crushed, smart money can buy a large amount of October and November puts on the cheap for when we revisit 10,000 Nasdaq/SPX 3,500. And the third is that with the USD going rampant, Wall Street Journal reported today that foreign buyers are going full ape risk-off trying to buy US equities because their national currencies are collapsing. All on its own, perhaps it doesn't matter, yet consider that USDJPY is printing 143 and then Yen is the most worthless its been in 24 years: Japan is most significant since the Bank of Japan pays no yield on bonds and so all that old, generational money props up the US equities market as it seeks returns elsewhere. Also, the Bank of Japan's next meeting, where it really may have to finally abandon Yield Curve Control, is on the same day as FOMC: Sept. 21. If BoJ is forced to raise their rates, finally, to try to save the Yen, and the Federal Reserve does something fun like 100 bps at the same time, you really are going to see the market crash with astoundingly violent force. And if something this exciting were to happen, of course, as a Wall Street sociopath and a proper market maker, you would want prices to be high in advance, to take full advantage of the foreign market brought to you and the delightful opportunity to throw everyone off balance. For all of this to work out will require that we aren't yet at the bottom. And we're not. Instead, I believe the pattern will be some kind of support or double bottom or stop sweep established around one of the June pivots @ ~11,500. This is under the psychological 12,000 level and also doesn't totally break market structure yet. Then, to rip it in the other direction back to a reasonable level will require a number roughly like 13,400. I do not believe they will take out the August high because what will unfold is ultimately a bull trap and not a true bear squeeze or a trend reversal. Now you might think to yourself that this is too much volatility. This kind of pump is too far away, too fast. And this notion is really very reasonable. However, I want to point out that Nasdaq did better than this in March, where it ran 2,300+ points in 11 trading days. Actually, counting the first eight trading days only, it more or less made 2,000 of those points. And so, you all need to be careful. If this is totally wrong and you buy the bottom and it dies, well, it will hurt, but not so much if you keep your risk low. There will be good chances to buy a healthy gap up. Where you're likely to get hurt is bottom shorting. But the ones who are really going to get skinned are the FOMO crowd and the people who have no idea what time it is. For a few days you will have returns. And for one weekend in the middle of September, as the autumn air chills, you'll be able to enjoy martinis at the bar, feeling like you've made it back to Tesla $1,000 Apple $200 and are thinking about what to waste your future winnings on. But what comes after the Party is over will be like waking up from a dream and finding yourself inside of a concrete nightmare. Because the drive down this time won't be like January-May was. It will gap down and the Terminator will be deployed, and hard, a lot like the COVID days. But perhaps this time the Fed won't have any QE to save you with, because the intention is not to save you and keep the old Party going this time, it is to create a crisis and then save you from that crisis with a new Party composed of their technocratic paradigm of super communism.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by LordWrymouth
4
Nustar Energy needs a recharge. NSGoals 15, 14. Invalidation at 19. We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe
NShort
by Rykin_Capital
NQ - Long Term StructureThe NQ has been in a Vertical move most of the past two decades. Toss up a Monthly chart from 1966 onward, an amazing run. Its' not over IMHO. _____________________________________________________________ We'll drill into the granular for NQ/NDX for larger Supports and entries into 5/5 IT for as they arrive... for now, let's go retest the Lows and fail. Price has moved into the Cloud, it should test the Cloud Trend soon, perhaps rather quickly. 3A ST can be a nasty ride deep south and quickly.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
NQ - 1 HourMomentum has reversed to SELL. EMA's are now in Steep Negative Slope. Lows for Day's 7/9 and 8/9 confirm the loss of Momentum. Larger TF's - 4Hr and Daily will provide important Supports @ 8, 15, 21 34 & 55 EMAs will provide indications to the trend in the upcoming Commentaries. ____________________________________ At present, the 8 Fib Sequence in the Daily confirmed the High. The reversal should be of concern to BUY SIDE as the Velocity, Scope, Scale are of concern. ____________________________________ Macro Fundamentals are Negative, considerably so - these continue to Compound. We will have the First Overhead Gap in the new FIB Sequence should Globax Session to recapture the Prior Close - Green Dotted Level in Chart ____________________________________ Best to You and Yours - HK
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61
5