NetEase: Microsleep 😴The NetEase share price continued to rise last week. Although there was a slump of around 10% last Thursday, the share price recovered quickly. We primarily expect the magenta-colored wave (b) to continue moving upward. Ideally, we expect the high of this corrective rise to be just below the resistance at $134.44. From there, the price should then sell off significantly in order to complete the beige-colored wave II. However, our alternative scenario (33% probability) should not be ignored. It sees the price in the green wave alt.(B) on a break of the resistance at $134.44. Consequently, within this scenario, the price should continue to rise (albeit correctively) before a sharp sell-off.
NTES
NTES Outcomes The initial rise and relatively low volitivity along the upper trend line makes me lean more toward the bearish case in this scenario.
I know this is 'going against the trend' but I have my reasons
Trendlines can be drawn along the upward stretch which allow possible bottom points to be plotted (red)
The only cause TA wise I can find for the bull side is the time frame that the price has been in this state of upward continuation (since about 2000)
NTES Price TargetPrice target for NTES is $84.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
Market Set To Drop, NTES With It?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 22, 2021 with a closing price of 102.24.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 99.35 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.51% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 10.27% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 16.765% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10 trading bars; half occur within 22 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 30 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NTES - Bullish on earningsNTES is a China tech company that provides online gaming services. All the china stocks are risky right now with their gov't sanctions, but they provide a good valuation. Some are down over 20-30% in last 3 months. Earnings is Aug 31 aftermarket and I think they will beat eps and revenue. Options - There are over 28000 calls OI for sept 17 exp, 19000 puts OI. Earnings Trend - PDD, JD. SE
China BigTech - KWEB ETF☝ KWEB - ETF of Chinese tech giants. It is traded on ARCA, but managed by a Chinese bank, so there is no threat of delisting.
Price is at the bottom of the channel. Most likely it will be a bottom and there will be a reversal up at least 50% towards the resistance line of $70 by February 2022. The upcoming bullish reversal is confirmed by the MACD-histogram, which is already in a bullish divergence.
However, in February 2021, there was a 19.83% move up from the channel. Such a pull-out can be repeated down to the $40 support line.
Not a financial recommendation.
GET RICH OR DIE TRYIN
NTES - Seasonality playNtes is a technology company engaged in the development of applications, services and other technologies for the Internet in China. July produces an avg of +1% over past 5 years. There is decent open interest in the july 16 115 and 120 calls. I have seen a fair amount of bullish option flow for china tech stocks. JD BABA , GL!
NTES long term outlook BullishTechnical
NTES is looking very bullish on the weekly,
Currently showing elliot waves cycle on wave 4
Consolidation around this level
Getting ready for that wave 5
Targets 130-140
Again long term - this is a weekly chart the drawings mapped could are months to years out
Fundamental
AI narrative has been picking up steam, expect this one to grow significantly over the next few years
Solid long term play
Can NTES head back toward November highs?After entry by our model in November we felt great after a quick rise to 96 only to watch the gains disappear. We have held steady in the face of volatility hoping for a completion of an upwave toward 102. China stocks have been in consolidation broadly but if they regain momentum ntes should be a winner.
Ingenuity Trading Model is an algorithm used in- Stock, Forex, Futures, and Crypto markets. The model is a Geometric Markov Model : Focuses on reversal and continuation wave structures
In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal sine wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions.
Our model focuses on the current sine wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For questions or more information feel free to contact me in the comment section or via private chat
$NTES NetEase Inc - Bullish Options Flow$NTES NetEase Inc - Bullish options flow today with a breakout to a fresh 52 week high, closing above $500 for the first time ever.
Just under 1k $340.00 strike (very deep-in-the-money) Sept 18th calls traded today for a total premium outlay of about $16M or ~$17,500 per contract. It is highly likely that this was a large hedge fund that made this trade.
An options trade this deep-in-the-money is essentially leveraged stock trading. There is no gamble, there is no extrinsic/time value baked in. The premium paid is almost 100% intrinsic value with a very high delta.
Near term target: $540.00-$550.00 range
Note: Not investment advice.
Netease $NTES Cup&Handle --> $530 potential targetDear traders,
I see a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart.
RSI, MACD, and StochRSI show some bullish momentum.
If we break the resistance at $360-$370, we might see a potential run towards $530.
Good luck!
Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice!
Do your own research!