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Nzd/Usd Wedging Head & ShoulderLooks like price is making lower lows and lower highs wedging into the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern we are in. Looking for a break of the neck to signify the swing is in affect and will be thinking about shorts this week. If the last high/right shoulder is broken then we might test the head again and push through up to 1.618 fib of last weeks bull this week. Hope it helps, trade with caution. Trade study not investment advice @Grateful_Charts on twitter www.gratefulchartartist.com Live Study Blog www.linkedin.com
by davistradingforex
3
NZDUSD-"better to fail in originality & not succeed in imitationHope everyone has had a great year of trading. I know I haven't posted here in a while but i'm going back to making a habit of it. Lets take a breather from GBPUSD and attempt this simple cyclical trade. An easy 100 pips is up for grabs should price come to our entry point. Although not entirely recommended , aggressive opportunities exist on the way down, if you can manage the drawdown whilst being true to your own risk management rules then position yourself as price moves down. I know I will :) The year is over but that doesn't mean risk management falls out of the window. Stay Safe and Good Luck!!! Forex is Risky afterall.
Long
by Mutondi
4
NU Bearish Butterfly IdeaThis is probably a long shot, but ultimately, I'm looking or the price to retest the 0.72950 level for a short position. To get there, price may jump around and potentially form a butterfly pattern. Harmonic patterns are useless to predict until at least the C leg, and we aren't even there- but hey, that's what I'm doing. I'm looking for the price to react at 0.72130 off of the 0.382 of the X to A, which is roughly where the 200MA (1h) is headed. If an hourly candle closes below this level, this will invalidate the pattern (but not necessarily the location of the short). My target to enter a short is 0.72950, as mentioned above. I'll update my idea if/when we get to that level with TP and SL. The 09/05/17 jump in price is iffy PA to short, but we're still in a downtrend on the 4h even at that level. Good luck and thank you for looking. -Zedro
Short
by Zedro
Previous high and double zero playThe sharp rise in NZDUSD has give some signs of exhaustion in the recent trends. June 09, 2017 Stochastic death cross death cross from above 80, bearish signal (1st signal) June 14, 2017 the RSI moved from 74 to 64 the next day (2nd signal) June 19, 2017 MACD death cross with histogram being negative, although the signal line was still above 0, this was medium bearish (3rd signal) Fundamental 1. New Zealand just printed their GDP that missed estimates 2. Current account deficit most since September 15 2015 (Q2). Although the trade balance is high, this was due to an lower import price vs export price, hence the current account deficit. 3. Milk prices dropped (-0.8%), although this is small relative to many weeks of gains, if next milk price drop as well it could be used to add another short position 4. Housing is still an issue for RBNZ, they will refrain from raising rates as it may put pressure on its home prices. 5. NZD TWI (Trade Weighted Index) shows an increase of 4% since last RBNZ meeting, could cause pressure for RBNZ to verbally intervene in the near future. Counter argument 1. Most RBNZ interest meeting did not have a dovish stance on the NZDUSD level. 2. Still one of the highest interest rate currency 3. Rising Milk prices vs dropping in iron ore prices supports short AUDNZD, which support long NZDUSD As there are still some counter argument and the downward trend has not yet fully materialized, I used tight stop and small size trade as an initial entry trade 1 lot. The double zero and the previous high provides strong top side resistance. There are many ways to play with an trade, depending on the price action tonight, these are some scenarios i am looking at. 1. If the entry trade is filled and the stop loss is not, we can see if today NZDUSD closes below 0.7300. Should that happen we might be able to see an extension move downwards on Monday, even if the move is not a huge drop, we can shift the stop on Monday to 0.7295 where we entered the trade, which would be come a zero risk trade. 2. If the trade is filled and then plunges, we just might be able to catch the top of the recent trend, as it is touching a downward trendline. This would allow us to add another lot should there be another trigger to an bearish signal. 3. should the entry trade get filled and goes straight up pass previous high, we might be able to see it target 0.7350, which would allow us to enter the position at an even better price. Please let me know what you think, comment below.
Short
by jky_lee2