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Jnug to Gold Presidential ElectionDaily Chart If Trump wins tomorrow, (and I have this strange feeling he will), then gold should shoot up in a similar price action pattern like the June Brexit. It will probably gap way up, maybe even fill the gap, and then pull back to the bottom of the channel by the end of the week only to climb for the rest of the month into December. If Hillary wins, then Gold will probably tank down to the $6.25 support range before we can see a reversal.
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
4
Jnug to Gold Oct 28thDaily chart So just as I thought, a huge huge GDP report. And no I am not one of those people that thinks that it was priced in or anticipated to be a good report. If you follow along with stock twits, almost everyone (sentiment) was thinking that there was no way we could get up to even the forecasted 2.5%. But 2.9% is really a surprise. Yet we went on a roller coaster throughout the day. Take a look at your own gold chart and compare it to the miners. Now tell me, do you really feel this is Bullish for the miners. I don’t. The miners (Jnug) was starting to tank not too long after open. The only thing that could be argued that saved it was the Hilary Clinton FBI emails announcement. Even though gold went up quite a bit for most of the day, miners did not make a higher high and closed weak. That, in my opinion is a big red flag. (It has been said over and over that the miners lead the price direction for gold). Also, gold did drop back down to the 1275 level at the end of the day. I think follow through from the great GDP report is coming on Monday and Tuesday. On the weekly, we sure look like we are possibly making a bear flag. So obviously don’t allow yourselves to be biased. Monday and Tuesday will tell the tale. My take is that we are just starting to move down into the 5th wave of our C correction. This does not mean that it can’t stop right at the trend line and then turn up. But with a phony huge GDP jump, I think the pressure to gold miners will be too great until the FOMC rate decision comes and goes. I think we go down until that decision and then a nice hard rally for a couple weeks. Another thing that should be noted is that we haven’t really had that huge green volume day with follow though yet. As far as Technical indicators, I really like to use the Willaims R. I modified it to 13 and 18 because those two levels have been very reliable forecasting ‘the’ big moves. I also modified the RSI. I will post charts with both modifications so you can check it out for yourself. When both are either oversold or overbought at those levels, it has been very reliable that a big move is near. So it currently shows that its still moving down with a little more to go. That’s just one of the many things I use. It has been said that October is the most volatile month. I would say they are correct. It is very difficult to trade medium term with this kind of price action. However, if I am correct about this being the start of the 5th wave down, then this 4th wave fits perfectly I would say. It is a shallow correction, complicated, and has been an all around pain in the ass. Cyclically speaking, we are getting near the end of the cycle. This also suggests that we need to move down further. I think for miners, the cycle will bottom on the 2nd. With no rate hike, Jnug and gold should pop. Then there is the election. I have this strange feeling that Trump will somehow win and then that will provide another much bigger pop. (just look at what happened today when this new email stuff came out). Then I think this next cycle will be stretched a bit due to the rate hike date on December 14th. So that’s about it. Short and sweet this weekend. As always, if I have forgotten anything, then I will update it later.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
2
Buy Gold, Not Miners - GDX DailyThere's a lot of flags right now being raised on miners. Even though gold has slowly crept up from its recent fall, miners on the other hand have not correlated with gold which should be seen as a red flag that the correction is not over. Also the nearing of the death cross should be taken seriously. With that being said, my bullish bias is telling me that bottom is probably near. I think we will see another MACD crossover (low) and RSI fall before we start the next bull run. Of course I'm not confident enough to short miners at this point as volatility has started to creep up into the markets as we near the american election, and that means TA can be negated quickly. I will be watching this closely of course. It was fun day trading it today, and that's what I expect most people will be doing leading up to the election.
AMEX:GDX
by xsubtownerx
2
Jnug to Gold Oct 27thThis just in!! If true, be careful tomorrow!! King World News just reported that an associate of George Soros leaked info that the US GDP data tomorrow is going to be slightly better than the forecast. The forecast is for GDP to have risen up to an astounding 2.5% from 1.4%. I think that would be a huge jump. But KWN reported that it would come in at a manufactured 2.6%. WHY!? Because they want a great number before the election to help Hilary Clinton win. I am sure it is both sides that want this. A Number that big would tank gold until the November non rate hike at the very least. So I drew a price target with a red arrow of where I think it could go if the report is correct. Otherwise, a miss would give us a short term pop. Either way, be ready! The report is set to come out at 5:30 AM.
AMEX:JNUG
by SalN
1
Gold - Similar Pattern DetectedIt's been a rough few weeks for gold and gdx (miners), but there could be some good gains up ahead. Looking back at the May lows, you can see that we are forming a similar pattern here in October which could be seen as a potential bottom for gold's recent downtrend, provided we are truly in a bull market for gold. This could be seen as a healthy correction before the next wave kicks into full gear. 1250 has held nicely as support, and of course we need to crush the 1303 resistance for confirmation. I've started to build positions in individual mining stocks keeping in mind that Q3 results are coming up in the next few weeks for miners, and should be very good versus last year as gold was trading over 1300 for the whole third quarter in 2016. Hoping for a nice swing trade here, heading into November...
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by xsubtownerx
Jnug to Gold Mid October 20161 Day Chart Are we about to start wave 5? I say yes and I am excited for it. If wave 5 is the same or bigger (as I have heard some analysts say for commodities) than wave 3, then I have worked out two possible price targets to reach probably Tuesday or Wednesday. A 100% Fib gain of wave 3 is approx. $16.58 which is coincidently right at about a resistance line, and near a down trend line (marked with the tan oval). My best case scenario price target is a measured move of the potential cup and handle pattern that appears to have been formed (refer to chart). The next move up (which is also wave 5) is supposed to be similar to the depth of the cup to the brim. So I drew a pink vertical line to measure the depth and then move it up. The approx. price target from that measurement is $18.36 (2nd tan oval). Oh and by the way….the 2nd oval happens to be the approx. level that the 50 DMA will be by Tuesday or Wednesday. Reversion to the mean??? Lets also not forget that the upper BBands are also descending fast with the 50DMA. HMMMMM! Cot report shows a reduction even though the price went up for the most part. This suggest strength. Volume dried up during the wave 4 consolidation. So I am looking for a Volume/price push early next week. Continued
AMEX:JNUGLong
by SalN
6